Canada's deficit to surge to $100 billion, National Bank's chief economist says

[Shady]

Just now, LinkSoul60 said:

Real estate values move up and down based on many factors..  Always have and always will.

Without looking.... I'd bet one hell of a lot more Canadian's own homes in the US as opposed to American's owning homes in Canada.

Home ownership has always been greater in the United States as interest on your mortgage is tax deductible.  Not so in Canada.  Regardless, the Liberals made housing much more scarce by skyrocketing demand with irresponsible immigration policies.  Completely outpacing Canada’s ability to build more homes.

[LinkSoul60]

1 minute ago, Shady said:

Home ownership has always been greater in the United States as interest on your mortgage is tax deductible.  Not so in Canada.  Regardless, the Liberals made housing much more scarce by skyrocketing demand with irresponsible immigration policies.  Completely outpacing Canada’s ability to build more homes.

Yes, and warmer weather in the Southern US during winter months....which probably has something to so with it.

Fyi... the US has a housing shortage as well with escalated costs.  And no, I'm not defending where Canada is with the cost of housing.

[Shady]

5 minutes ago, LinkSoul60 said:

Yes, and warmer weather in the Southern US during winter months....which probably has something to so with it.

Fyi... the US has a housing shortage as well with escalated costs.  And no, I'm not defending where Canada is with the cost of housing.

Warm weather in the southern US isn’t a new phenomenon.  Yes, the last few years the US has seen their housing costs increase,

[LinkSoul60]

10 minutes ago, Shady said:

Warm weather in the southern US isn’t a new phenomenon.  Yes, the last few years the US has seen their housing costs increase,

No, but warmer weather in the winter is the main reason why Canadian's bought homes in the Southern US... FL, AZ, CA.  

[Army Guy]

18 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Well, that's not quite true actually. The fact is Canada is still America's largest trading partner and if America starts to crash financially it has a massive impact on the united states.

And at that point we start looking at all kinds of interesting other options. Maybe china will let us build cars here under their brands if it means more money. Maybe we should be closer with Russia. Maybe we should be part of the European Union, rather than america.

And of course it forces us to start doing more things for ourselves and importing less from America. And already america is feeling a serious financial pitch from the fact that we're not buying their products or visiting their country. That can intensify.

If things get really bad it forces us to look at other markets, get serious about stripping inter provincial trade and mobility barriers, etc etc.  Just as we saw with the formation of the european union. 

So there's only so far he can push us, and we'll never be part of the us.  That just won't happen.  No matter how hard carney tries  

It WILL mean that we're going to have some difficult times and that means we have to cut the deficit down to next to nothing. Debt growth must be trailing GDP growth at the very least. And i mean by a fair amount, not just barely. 

Currently we're looking at the liberals delivering the largest deficit ever in our history by miles, and no plan to return to balance or even modest deficits.  And their "investments" won't do a positive thing for canada and will likely put inflationary pressure on the economy again. 

Queen has a point, the US controls everything we do....they fart we smell it ...including our economy...when our dollar hits what the peso is worth do not think more Canadians will warm up to the idea of being American...

You think the US is going to allow us to cozy up to the Chinese or Russians...do you not think there would be consequences to that move...

75 % of our trade is with the US...how can we make that up in foreign markets already filled to capacity, or have their own protectionism on it....Do you really think Europe is going to want us after the US tightens its grip, and crushes us......

The US does not have to convince all Canadians just one province....take Alberta for instance...or Quebec, the rest will fall like dominos' out dollar will be worthless, our economy will have tanked...Provinces will be lined up to become US citizens...And the best part we will do it to ourselves...And Canadians will lose everything, government pensions, CPP, OAS, unemployment benefits, welfare benefits...god knows what it will do to our housing market, all our Canadian investments...everything will be up in smoke....

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, LinkSoul60 said:

I'm referring to US net investment as your chart shows.  Why is that?

LOL so gross us investment    He can't help but lie 

1 hour ago, LinkSoul60 said:

Yes, and warmer weather in the Southern US during winter months....which probably has something to so with it.

Fyi... the US has a housing shortage as well with escalated costs.  And no, I'm not defending where Canada is with the cost of housing.

FYI it's a tiny fraction of what our problem is but he's not going to mention that     And trump mentioned they had some 'immigration' issues as well under biden as i recall....

[eyeball]

53 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

The US does not have to convince all Canadians just one province....take Alberta for instance...or Quebec, the rest will fall like dominos' out dollar will be worthless, our economy will have tanked...Provinces will be lined up to become US citizens...And the best part we will do it to ourselves...And Canadians will lose everything, government pensions, CPP, OAS, unemployment benefits, welfare benefits...god knows what it will do to our housing market, all our Canadian investments...everything will be up in smoke....

Yabut look at the bright side, we'll finally be allowed to arm ourselves, you know, for self-defence or defense as we'll come to know it.

[CdnFox]

50 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

Queen has a point, the US controls everything we do....they fart we smell it ...including our economy...when our dollar hits what the peso is worth do not think more Canadians will warm up to the idea of being American...

There's truth to the idea that our economy is based on their economy and yes, the saying "if they sneeze we catch cold' goes back the better part of 100 years, but the fact is we are their largest cusomter in the word and it's not even close.  If we go broke, their economy will suffer terribly.  And trump won't like that.   There's a reason he's not just putting 1000 percent tariffs on everything. 

52 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

You think the US is going to allow us to cozy up to the Chinese or Russians...do you not think there would be consequences to that move...

I think they can't do much to stop us,  and the consequences would be they'd take a serous look at the trade arrangement again. 

You think they'd invade over it? You're dreaming. 

So if we start looking at closer economic ties with others then their only choice is to push us away further...  which strengthens our dependency on the others. 

This was the very reason they let china do business with them in a very one sided fashion for so long. THey didn't want them developing trade arrangements with others. 

55 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

75 % of our trade is with the US...how can we make that up in foreign markets already filled to capacity

There's no such thing as a foreign market that's filled the capacity. A bigger problem is generally going to be transportation but we work around that. Unless remember there's a lot of things that America simply cannot afford not to buy from us. And that goes for the world as well, we lost out on natural gas but we can make up the lost ground if we want.  We still grow a lot of food etc. 

PP had the right idea though, and carney stole it but can't deliver, and that's get canada making and buying it's own stuff again.  

Seriously why don't we have our own car company? Why can't we license designs from others like china and build our own?

59 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

The US does not have to convince all Canadians just one province..

That's not how it works. There's no provision in the constitution for leaving to join another country. Alberta might be able to say it's leaving and going mostly on its own or more accurately negotiate it's sovereignty arrangement but joining another country would be a big deal and not really plausible. 

 

The whole idea is kind of flattered stuff. There really is no path to America taking over Canada. While it's true that trump can make us suffer terribly that would only last for a time and we would adjust. Yes it would absolutely be miserable and it will be a shame that our kids had to go through it but that's the price you pay for voting liberal.

More realistically we will probably lose a lot of talent to America as kids who would be willing to become American don't sit around waiting and just move there.

[I am Groot]

Maybe if we could develop a bunch of these, we'd have fewer unemployed, more economic activity, and lower budget deficits.

 

[CdnFox]

9 minutes ago, I am Groot said:

Maybe if we could develop a bunch of these, we'd have fewer unemployed, more economic activity, and lower budget deficits.

 

Sure. And imagine if we had our own car companies, and made our own products etc. 

But none of that is happening right now and it doesn't look like it will under carney

[Army Guy]

23 hours ago, CdnFox said:

There's truth to the idea that our economy is based on their economy and yes, the saying "if they sneeze we catch cold' goes back the better part of 100 years, but the fact is we are their largest cusomter in the word and it's not even close.  If we go broke, their economy will suffer terribly.  And trump won't like that.   There's a reason he's not just putting 1000 percent tariffs on everything. 

I think they can't do much to stop us,  and the consequences would be they'd take a serous look at the trade arrangement again. 

You think they'd invade over it? You're dreaming. 

So if we start looking at closer economic ties with others then their only choice is to push us away further...  which strengthens our dependency on the others. 

This was the very reason they let china do business with them in a very one sided fashion for so long. THey didn't want them developing trade arrangements with others. 

There's no such thing as a foreign market that's filled the capacity. A bigger problem is generally going to be transportation but we work around that. Unless remember there's a lot of things that America simply cannot afford not to buy from us. And that goes for the world as well, we lost out on natural gas but we can make up the lost ground if we want.  We still grow a lot of food etc. 

PP had the right idea though, and carney stole it but can't deliver, and that's get canada making and buying it's own stuff again.  

Seriously why don't we have our own car company? Why can't we license designs from others like china and build our own?

That's not how it works. There's no provision in the constitution for leaving to join another country. Alberta might be able to say it's leaving and going mostly on its own or more accurately negotiate it's sovereignty arrangement but joining another country would be a big deal and not really plausible. 

 

The whole idea is kind of flattered stuff. There really is no path to America taking over Canada. While it's true that trump can make us suffer terribly that would only last for a time and we would adjust. Yes it would absolutely be miserable and it will be a shame that our kids had to go through it but that's the price you pay for voting liberal.

More realistically we will probably lose a lot of talent to America as kids who would be willing to become American don't sit around waiting and just move there.

Us federal government have already said very clearly they don't care about Canada's economy...we see that with the tariffs, Trump has said very clearly he wants all of our automotive jobs, he wants the US to rebuild their lumber , steel, industry, etc with no thought to what it is going to do to Canadas economy...How far is he willing to go right now there does not look like he has a limit he plans on taking several of our industries....he has 3 more years in which to inflict damage to us, it will take decades to undo all of it....

Invade, No why would they have to invade....Besides US does not need to invade, he could do it economically, cyber, just plain tariffs would be enough... Although invading would be much faster...

Most nations do not stock pile commodities, or buy more than they need, So unless you plan to under cut their current supplier then yes the market is full...and by under cutting all your going to do is pi$$ a lot of other people off in the process......

I suggested that a while ago, i think it would be an assume idea....build autos/ trucks for the Canada , although i was thinking of European designs.

Like i said all they need to do is pry one province out of the union and poof it will start an avalanche....Once any province leaves the union, it would become an independent country of it's own....and join any other alliance it sees fit...or it could be become a protectant of the US....Canada would be powerless to do anything...  i mean what could Canada do if that was the case....cry foul , invoke some inter national laws....UN interference...release the hounds...not sure what could be done or what powers Canada thinks it has... 

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, Army Guy said:

Us federal government have already said very clearly they don't care about Canada's economy...we see that with the tariffs, Trump has said very clearly he wants all of our automotive jobs, he wants the US to rebuild their lumber , steel, industry, etc with no thought to what it is going to do to Canadas economy...How far is he willing to go right now there does not look like he has a limit he plans on taking several of our industries....he has 3 more years in which to inflict damage to us, it will take decades to undo all of it....

Well Again I'm not going to say your entirely wrong there. But in fact they have shown concerns where it's impacting America. They're talking about making a deal on steel for at least a lower tariff because they need our steel. Many states are pressuring them about the fact that Canadians aren't visiting or buying their product anymore

They're prepared to let Canada suffer of that there is no doubt but they need us to be able to have money to spend. Again we are one of their largest customers in the entire world and their economy is definitely dependent on that trade if it wants to grow. 

They can say what they like but they can't avoid that simple truth. 

He's not going to get canada with 'tariffs'.  He can make our lives miserable for a time but we're not going to be americans over it. 

4 hours ago, Army Guy said:

Most nations do not stock pile commodities, or buy more than they need, So unless you plan to under cut their current supplier then yes the market is full...and by under cutting all your going to do is pi$$ a lot of other people off in the process......

Actually the very reason you give is exactly why the market is always growing. You're right, as we saw in covid people have stopped stockpiling and buy stuff as needed.

But local factories and local companies can only produce so much. I in many cases they don't produce it at all and rely on other countries. America is in that position right now

The world markets are still growing and generally speaking over time will continue to do so and that gives us plenty of opportunity

I think we're on agreement on the car thing  I agree we should be looking at European designs and modifying them for Canada. Guarantee Canadians would tend to buy European and Japanese vehicles and not American in such a circumstance. We probably have to sign a deal that we wouldn't sell anything but parts to the states but still

[I am Groot]

What do we need to rebuild our economy? Business investment. But we're not getting it.

 

Notice how much worse it looks if you take out housing?

 

 

And then there's the mining industry. Notice how investment in it has plunged, especially after Carney got elected and vowed to keep Liberal policies in place?

 

[CdnFox]

2 minutes ago, I am Groot said:

What do we need to rebuild our economy? Business investment. But we're not getting it.

 

Notice how much worse it looks if you take out housing?

 

 

And then there's the mining industry. Notice how investment in it has plunged, especially after Carney got elected and vowed to keep Liberal policies in place?

 

Succinct and correct.

Canada desperately needs investment to solve this problems. And they need that both in the form of new investment for new businesses and major projects, as well as investment in existing businesses to make them more competitive

And we are badly feeling it both

[I am Groot]

But what about government investment?! Surely GOVERNMENT investment can help pump up the economy and get it moving, right!?

Every single one of the highlighted EV projects has either been cancelled, delayed, or gone into bankruptcy.

 

Edited October 15, 2025 by I am Groot

[Shady]

Failed policy, on top of failed policy, on top of failed policy.  It’s what Liberals do best.

 

[Legato]

3 minutes ago, Shady said:

Failed policy, on top of failed policy, on top of failed policy.  It’s what Liberals do best.

 

Yeah but no but yeah but no but the temp only rose by 0.001 F instead of 0.0015 F.

Mind you the pollution from battery manufacturing will by decree be brushed under the carpet.

The only people benefitting are the carpet makers.