Carney to have MAJORITY in a couple of weeks!

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, betsy said:

 

As I've asked:   why not?

Carney doesn't have to promise them anything.it?

Then why would they flip? The vast majority of people who crossed the floor lose the next election in that riding. So you're an NDP MP, you believe in your party, and the liberals come ask you to change sides. All your friends and co workers will hate you, your entire volunteer team is going to desert you, showing your face in the riding will be a questionable thing to do, and you're almost guaranteed to be out of a job next election.

And they offer you nothing for all of that. 

Sounds like a great deal right   

2 hours ago, betsy said:

It's not like as if it never happened before.

Sure it has, but very rarely and usually the party did something to p*ss the person off, or there was a very special reason.  OR  they were offered a huge benefit.  Such as the case with belinda stronach.  

or david emmerson who crossed the floor to harper, but his whole reason for getting into politics was to negotiate the softwood lumber agreement, the libs lost to harper and harper reached out and said he could have a free hand on the file and he jumped ship. He lost the next election but didn't care. 

But they don't just do it for fun. 

 

[CdnFox]

10 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

It's gonna be interesting to see if they can bring the party back to life. 

I don't know who any of their MPs are, but if they have another Jack Layton moment and Carney falters, they could have an epic comeback.

The Jack Layton thing seems impossible right now, but this is a crisis moment for that party so the chances of them acting like big boys now, and taking a more serious, common sense approach are actually quite high imo, and that's what Layton brought to the table for them. I think that they must know that it's not the time to appeal to fringe minorities and be divisive anymore.  

Will Carney falter? 

I don't like his chances against Trump, that's for sure, and his path to victory just got harder:

the biggest obstacle for the NDP is going to be money

The way it usually works is that parties are able to get rebates and subsidies for the vast majority of the money they spend in an election. I believe it's about 3/4's of what they spend.

So if a party spends 20 million they get something like 15 million back and are only out the 5.  That allows them to borrow money if they don't have it and then repay it when the election is done.  

But... the ndp lost party status. They won't qualify.  So all the money they spent is gone, no rebate. And they borrowed some to do the campaign. 

They are going to be very lucky if they don't go bankrupt. How will they pay for staffers, or attract big names in ridings, or save up for the next campaign or do research or anything.

The primary 'skil' of the next leader is probably going to have to be the ability to fundraise. If they can't bring in a tonne of money fairly quickly they're never going to survive, never mind have the cash to fight the next election. 

[WestCanMan]

51 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

The primary 'skil' of the next leader is probably going to have to be the ability to fundraise. If they can't bring in a tonne of money fairly quickly they're never going to survive, never mind have the cash to fight the next election. 

I'd argue that it doesn't matter how much money they have if their party is just going to continue to operate as a bunch of side-show freaks.

They have an opportunity right now to be on national TV at no cost because Carney still needs their support. They just have to look really good while they're there. 

Eg, when Carney starts floating budget ideas, and an NDPer wants to talk to CBC about whether or not they'll vote for it, it's big news, so they can get their face on TV to talk about that. They just can't say "WE LOVE THE TREES! WE HATE OIL! WE HATE WHITE PEOPLE" when they get there because that doesn't work anymore. They need to say "This depends on whether or not they support our plan to fight against homelessness", etc.

The LPOC has homelessness all over their brand right now, but in order to get CBC to say homelessness and LPOC in the same sentence, the NDP has to make the correlation unbreakable. "Take the $10B for foreign aid out of the budget and spend that on homelessness or you get nothing from us." Stick to that type of message. Don't give the CBC a soundbite that they can use without those two things inextricably bound together. "Until the CBC says this on national TV, your budget is headed for defeat, and the country will go to an election over this issue."

This minority gov't think is pure gold for what's left of the NDP. It has made their worthless asses extremely relevant. I don't think the Bloc can use that same leverage because the LPOC can't just screw the country in favour of Quebec every time they wanna get something done. The Greens only have 1 MP in parliament right now, and no one wants that glue-sniffing twat telling everyone that she's their friend. The NDP are the low-hanging fruit, and their brand isn't as toxic as the other 2. 

[Moonbox]

5 hours ago, betsy said:

I don't think this time, any NDP crossers would have to worry about angering their party.

It's not the party, but rather the constituents.  Floor-crossers don't typically have long careers. 

In this case, Carney doesn't really need a majority.  The NDP is a wounded animal and won't be in a position to bring down the government for years.  Quebec is ideologically opposed to Reform Party party politics and have already indicated they'll support the Liberals for at least a year "and some months".  

If Carney shits the bed all bets or off, but as a minority goes, this one has a mandate and plenty of runway.  

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

I'd argue that it doesn't matter how much money they have if their party is just going to continue to operate as a bunch of side-show freaks.

They have an opportunity right now to be on national TV at no cost because Carney still needs their support. They just have to look really good while they're there. 

Eg, when Carney starts floating budget ideas, and an NDPer wants to talk to CBC about whether or not they'll vote for it, it's big news, so they can get their face on TV to talk about that. They just can't say "WE LOVE THE TREES! WE HATE OIL! WE HATE WHITE PEOPLE" when they get there because that doesn't work anymore. They need to say "This depends on whether or not they support our plan to fight against homelessness", etc.

The LPOC has homelessness all over their brand right now, but in order to get CBC to say homelessness and LPOC in the same sentence, the NDP has to make the correlation unbreakable. "Take the $10B for foreign aid out of the budget and spend that on homelessness or you get nothing from us." Stick to that type of message. Don't give the CBC a soundbite that they can use without those two things inextricably bound together. "Until the CBC says this on national TV, your budget is headed for defeat, and the country will go to an election over this issue."

This minority gov't think is pure gold for what's left of the NDP. It has made their worthless asses extremely relevant. I don't think the Bloc can use that same leverage because the LPOC can't just screw the country in favour of Quebec every time they wanna get something done. The Greens only have 1 MP in parliament right now, and no one wants that glue-sniffing twat telling everyone that she's their friend. The NDP are the low-hanging fruit, and their brand isn't as toxic as the other 2. 

Well the fact is they don't actually need the NDP. At least not right now. If they want to pass legislation they only have to make the block happy to get it through. There's even things they could put forward that the conservatives wouldn't vote against. And there's things they could put on the table that the NDP simply couldn't say no to

But I agree 100%, the party cannot afford to be seen as being the liberals lap dogs anymore. That slaughtered them

They'll have to leverage what they have but everybody needs money to run an election campaign, and they need money just to survive from day to day. Money is going to be hard to come by

[WestCanMan]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

Well the fact is they don't actually need the NDP. At least not right now. If they want to pass legislation they only have to make the block happy to get it through. There's even things they could put forward that the conservatives wouldn't vote against. And there's things they could put on the table that the NDP simply couldn't say no to

But I agree 100%, the party cannot afford to be seen as being the liberals lap dogs anymore. That slaughtered them

They'll have to leverage what they have but everybody needs money to run an election campaign, and they need money just to survive from day to day. Money is going to be hard to come by

How much money do they need for the 7 of them? 🤣

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, WestCanMan said:

How much money do they need for the 7 of them? 🤣

LOL well fair point   Their caucus meetings can be held at a booth at denny's. 

The 7 tho are still getting paid by the taxpayers. It's all the staffers, the office space, the ads, the people manning the phones and doing the tech work etc etc etc.  A party is like a small to medium sized company, there's a lot of staff and expense. 

[TreeBeard]

7 hours ago, Moonbox said:

but as a minority goes, this one has a mandate and plenty of runway.

Absolutely correct.  NDP have no money and no leader.  Those 7 MPs want a paycheque for at least a couple years, probably longer.   If the electorate thought the NDP were to blame for another election, they’d be even more decimated.  
 

This is a very secure minority.