And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

But hey, lets settle it :  seeing as you feel you know the calculations, what ARE the proper calculations for the margin of error in that specific case? Hmmmm?

Don't know? Cant' figure it out? Havne't got a clue about what you're talking about?

Who are you talking to here?  Why are you answering yourself?  🤔

The question isn't the margin of error on the whole poll, but rather the margin of error on the difference between two answers (Liberal and Conservative vote percentage).  This is the formula you'd use to figure that out:

For the Nanos poll you quoted at the start, the answer's ~3.8%.  If the Liberals and Conservatives were within that margin for that poll, you could say it's not a statistically significant lead. 

For a two party race, P1+P2 would = 100% of the vote, which would yield an answer of 5.3% (roughly twice their margin of error).  This doesn't work for our election, however, because the Liberals and Conservatives aren't getting 100% of the vote, or even close to that.  

Let me know if you need a walkthrough, but I'm sure you'll totally figure it out, genius that you are.  After all, you've uncovered the secrets of 100-50...🤡👌

 

 

(As an added bonus for you, today's Nanos Poll is showing a statistically insignificant lead for the Liberals.  Rejoice!)

Edited 8 hours ago by Moonbox

[CdnFox]

Just now, Moonbox said:

Who are you talking to here?  Why are you answering yourself?  🤔

I'm talking to you and I'm answering because god knows you can't

  

Quote

 

The question isn't the margin of error on the whole poll, but rather the margin of error on the difference between two answers (Liberal and Conservative vote percentage).  This is the formula you'd use to figure that out:

For the Nanos poll you quoted at the start, the answer's ~3.8%.  If the Liberals and Conservatives were within that margin for that poll, you could say it's not a statistically significant lead. 

For a two party race, P1+P2 would = 100% of the vote, which would yield an answer of 5.3% (roughly twice their margin of error).  This doesn't work for our election, however, because the Liberals and Conservatives aren't getting 100% of the vote, or even close to that.  

Let me know if you need a walkthrough, but I'm sure you'll totally figure it out, genius that you are.  After all, you've uncovered the secrets of 100-50...🤡👌

 

Oh look, no link yet again

 And no, that formula is partially filled in.  You did not correctly calculate the MOE(p1 -p2) if that's the equasion you used, 

It looks like you took a picture from somewhere,  so you saw the formula and then ran the internal calculations without recalculating the variable. 

You've calculated the outcome based on two polls with a 95 percent accuracy MOE.  The correct number in this case would be 97.5.  

SO you calculated the z score wrong if that's the formula you used. 

So you effed up the calculation     LOLOLL

I told ya you couldn't answer it.    you just never pass up another chance to look stupid do you   

 

[taxme]

On 4/23/2025 at 11:56 AM, CdnFox said:

The block won't be backing the liberals very easily, they are more closely aligned to the conservatives. As close as they align with anyone at any rate, they are still entirely focused on the benefits of Quebec and the rest of the world can go to hell

Harper managed to get through a lot of stuff even into minority. Obviously you're not going to get through everything.

I do believe that a liberal majority will cause a national unity crisis. I think a lot of young people will be very very angry. And I don't think there's any doubt that carney will be exactly the same as Trudeau was and nothing will get any better. Which means they still won't be able to afford food or a house, and they will have given up on the democratic process.

Looking at the polls in the situation I think it's safe to say that once again most of the  liberal success Comes from Ontario Quebec and The Maritime Provinces. People in the west are going to notice that and there is going to be a lot of anger.

All we can do is hope that the conservatives either hold them to a minority or when a minority themselves

Polls are looking pretty good these days for the conservatives. According to another poll taker, the conservatives have 43% and the lieberals have 39%. Great news if this poll is correct. 😊

[Moonbox]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Oh look, no link yet again

So...you're suggesting that I made up a mathematical formula? 

It's from the same place as before.  You made me look up how to embed PDF hyperlinks though, so I guess I learned something from interacting with your belligerent stupidity, for once:

https://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

You've calculated the outcome based on two polls with a 95 percent accuracy MOE.  The correct number in this case would be 97.5.  

No, muppet.  That's the number you use to capture 95% of a normal distribution, or a large polling sample like this. 

I suspect I know where you got that 97.5 number though, in your desperate interweb search:

Way to prove (once again) you're a complete assclown.  

 

The formula I cited was for one poll.  

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

SO you calculated the z score wrong if that's the formula you used. 

Since the z-score (1.96) is a constant in this equation.  Saying I "calculated it wrong" is probably one the single stupidest things you could have possibly said, but I salute your dedication to the clownish arts.  

 

Regardless, while I've been posting how the math works, and you've been squirming around making shit up, you still refuse to answer a pretty simple question that highlights the painfully obvious error in your logic:

What happens if you add +/- the margin of error to the PPC's polling support?  Are they between 3.6% and -1.8% support?  🤣

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Moonbox

[taxme]

19 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

It wouldn’t make much difference to my life. I doubt a PM Poilievre would launch trade wars across the globe or start fighting the deep state. If anything, my taxes would probably go down. 

If the lieberals by chance win a minority or a majority, indeed, your life will be worse off. Everything that Turdeau did to Canada for the past 10 years, this Corney guy will only keep it going. Corney is against any progress and will make every effort to make Canada more woke and broke again. The Corney lieberal still has the same Marxist WEF globalist buffoons in his lieberal party that the dictator Turdeau had in his lieberal party. 

If you are happy with a .60 cent dollar and more and higher inflation, then vote for Corney. Corney will give you all the government and more taxes and less freedom that you require. If you want to see Canada become great again, than vote conservative and they will give us all more freedom, less taxes and less government. 

I always say that Canada and Canadians should be filthy rich, if it were not for ten years of WEF globalist sucks like Turdeau(Beavis)and Butz(Butthead). Those two imbeciles have been having fun and enjoyment watching Canada go down the tubes. 

My personal opinion is that 5 more years of the WEF globalist Corney lieberal party and Canada is dead. Alberta will be the first to go. 30% of Albertans are for Alberta separation, and it is said that if the lieberals win a minority or a majority, that figure could go up to 50%. According to the clarity act, 50% is a passing mark for separation. Just saying. 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, taxme said:

Polls are looking pretty good these days for the conservatives. According to another poll taker, the conservatives have 43% and the lieberals have 39%. Great news if this poll is correct. 😊

I have never seen an election it was such a wide spread between pollsters. It is out and out insane. Some still have the liberals ahead, a number have the liberals behind, and there's a fairly decent gap in between the numbers

I have said all along with the poles are insanely weird and I don't trust them this election because none of it makes sense when you look at the other variables and it doesn't make sense that so many would be so far apart, and when I see so many of them come together and basically show a near tie all at the beginning of the last week it makes me think that they are questioning their numbers as well

I think we're going to have to wait till Monday to find out what the hell's happened. Aside from which about 40 to 50% of the people that are likely to vote have already done so. We only usually get somewhere between 14 and 16 million voters in an election and 7.5 have already voted at the advanced polls.