suds Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said: If a neighbouring friendly country has a problem with our policies, the normal, civilized way for rule of law democracies to start addressing the issues would be to engage in negotiations over them through the usual channels. That’s what the US has been preaching to other countries since 1945. Did we do that? Trump gave enough warning about what he was going to do. Canada should have been addressing issues after the last U.S. election. And as I've said, we've had 4 years to plan for this eventuality. I'm not siding with Trump or claiming he's right but we certainly dropped the ball on this one. Quote
SpankyMcFarland Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 17 minutes ago, suds said: Did we do that? Trump gave enough warning about what he was going to do. Canada should have been addressing issues after the last U.S. election. And as I've said, we've had 4 years to plan for this eventuality. I'm not siding with Trump or claiming he's right but we certainly dropped the ball on this one. This outrageous move by Trump will generate lasting ill-will and distrust in Canada. Any sensible American leader would be factoring the effect of that into their security calculations as well. Quote
Zeitgeist Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Dougie93 said: the national security rubric is simply to allow Trump to get around the courts everything Trump is doing is under the auspices of National Security State of Emergency this allows him to operate under the President's Article II War Powers but the Trump plan to use tariffs to overthrow Neoliberal Globalism Trump didn't just pull all of this out of his ass the Trump plan has actually been written by economist Stephen Miran "Currently a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital Management LP and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute in New York City, Miran holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University and his dissertation advisor was Martin Feldstein, an eminent American economist who chaired the CEA during the Reagan administration." https://financialpost.com/news/stephen-miran-economist-trump-economic-advisory-team point being, while Canadians are thinking that Trump is just crazy and has no plan here Trump actually has a very well developed plan, and it's the main event of his 2nd term so thinking that Trump is going to cave the moment Americans start complaining about it that's not a given, Trump is aware that this plan is going to be very disruptive that's the whole point, this is an attempt to reorder things at the global level so this war could go on much longer than Canadians are expecting right now Trump's intention is to make all of this structural, enduring, permanent that's why he invoked Canada as the 51st State he means that if Canada can't handle this plan being imposed forever then becoming the 51st State will be Canada's only option I don’t disagree that may be the plan. I just don’t know if it will work out the way he hopes It will. It’s gunboat diplomacy. People hate coercion. The results may backfire big time. I don’t think it’s a win for Canada to have to become more independent to fight this either. I also don’t think that this is the path to statehood that’s advisable because it’s undemocratic and reveals a mercantile empire mentality that countries rejected in the last century. You can get what you want through fear or winning hearts and minds. Those ruled by fear will flee the second they get a chance and they will proudly wear the badge of anti-oppression and liberation. Trump could’ve been seen as a great liberator. Instead, if he doesn’t watch it, he’ll go down as another oppressor, a Nebuchadnezzar or Hun. There’s nothing cool or alluring about it. It’s anti-American philosophically, but actually it could be the new America, and if so, the American brand tanks internationally, and rightly so. Trump is pushing it and soon he’ll realize that there are boundaries in the court of public opinion and even among the checks and balances of US government. Right now he’s being given time. Time and political capital are limited commodities. Quote
CdnFox Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 13 minutes ago, Army Guy said: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/four-more-years-obama-gives-speech-to-001327953.html Your in denial if you think this is a recent thing...and it has not just came from the US it has also come from other NATO allieds, all of which have sat down and asked Canada to up it's game ...and all of those asks have been ignored....In this case diplomacy has failed to show results...Now we are in the serious ramification zone... and for some reason you and many others can't see that... Failing to make any type of arrest before it gets to the US border is the problem... You'd be the one in denial if you were to suggest it was a major point for him. The only reason obama cared is because canada spends it's defense dollars in the us for the most part. He was in power for 8 years and mentioned it once? Nobody ever has "Sat down" with canada to negotiate more spending. They may mention it here and there in speeches but that's about it. And neither has trump for that matter. He very easily could have requested a commitment to increase military spending as part of any previous trade agreement or as an independent agreement. And if that was the big deal he could say 'tariffs for tanks - increase spending by xxx this year and commit permanently and the tarrifs come off". He's barely mentioned it. And it wouldn't explain the tariffs for mexico or china. This has ZERO to do with any of that and that is obvious to anyone who follows politics.. Sorry man, you might be pretty knowledgeable on military matters but i'm a pro at politics and i'm right far more often than i'm not, and this pretty obviously is not anything to do with 'ramifications'. Military spending and border security are completely sideline issues here. He may care and it may make him dislike trudeau more but that's not why this is happening. This is about trade. Quote There are two types of people in this world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
Dougie93 Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 (edited) 2 hours ago, Zeitgeist said: Actually Canada has a full range of incredible liquor. I had some of the best gin I ever tasted at Toronto’s distillery district. Our whiskies and vodkas are top class. It will be fun to explore the range of Canadian options. My favourite drink is Dillon’s gin and orange-mint. Stellar and located in Niagara. If you get a chance to visit the distillery in Elora, it’s got a phenomenal lounge upstairs and some really unique drinks. well I'm not going overboard with a boycott I'm still going to shop at Costco & Walmart the people who work there are local, why would I try to get them laid off ? but I can live without Bourbon & California wine I don't drink orange juice, it's actually really bad for you ; pure sugar I've never bought American cars, I don't trust union made cars, I only buy cars made in Japan I'm trying to think what I buy that is even made in America like most of the American branded products I buy, are actually made in Mexico or China Edited February 2 by Dougie93 Quote
suds Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 6 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said: This outrageous move by Trump will generate lasting ill-will and distrust in Canada. Any sensible American leader would be factoring the effect of that into their security calculations as well. You're probably right. I admit I was also wrong in not believing that Trump would take this thing this far. But we do have time to rectify the situation if saner heads prevail. Trump really isn't interested in Trudeau's plan over spending $1.3 billion for security over the next 6 years. He wants things done now. We might also have to get rid of a few sacred cows. If it makes good economic sense it's not necessarily appeasement. Quote
CdnFox Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 2 minutes ago, suds said: You're probably right. I admit I was also wrong in not believing that Trump would take this thing this far. But we do have time to rectify the situation if saner heads prevail. Trump really isn't interested in Trudeau's plan over spending $1.3 billion for security over the next 6 years. He wants things done now. We might also have to get rid of a few sacred cows. If it makes good economic sense it's not necessarily appeasement. It's not about the military spending. If it was it would just be us and not Mexico and China. Those things might be icing on the cake for him but we are not going to resolve this by a promise to increase military spending alone Quote There are two types of people in this world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
Dougie93 Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said: I don’t disagree that may be the plan. I just don’t know if it will work out the way he hopes It will. It’s gunboat diplomacy. People hate coercion. The results may backfire big time. I don’t think it’s a win for Canada to have to become more independent to fight this either. I also don’t think that this is the path to statehood that’s advisable because it’s undemocratic and reveals a mercantile empire mentality that countries rejected in the last century. You can get what you want through fear or winning hearts and minds. Those ruled by fear will flee the second they get a chance and they will proudly wear the badge of anti-oppression and liberation. Trump could’ve been seen as a great liberator. Instead, if he doesn’t watch it, he’ll go down as another oppressor, a Nebuchadnezzar or Hun. There’s nothing cool or alluring about it. It’s anti-American philosophically, but actually it could be the new America, and if so, the American brand tanks internationally, and rightly so. Trump is pushing it and soon he’ll realize that there are boundaries in the court of public opinion and even among the checks and balances of US government. Right now he’s being given time. Time and political capital are limited commodities. alls I'm saying is that Trump & Co may be willing to take much more backlash than Canadian politicians surmise Trump is selling this in America as a National Emergency ; all hands on deck and while trade war is not popular, that is being offset by the mass deportations being very popular indeed and getting rid of Woke DEI and Gender Ideology, that is also very popular in terms of allies, MAGA Republicans don't give a f*ck about allies they see allies as a burden not a boon and they do not like Canada, all they know about Canada is ; Justin Trudeau's Wokest country on earth in terms of swing voters ; Trump doesn't need them anymore Trump is not even playing this for the midterms the Administration is planning to get everything done by then, the assumption being that they only have 18 months on the clock to ram everything through and congress is not even the problem, since everything is being done under Article II War Powers it's only the courts which can stop these Executive Actions and for that Trump is relying on the SOCTUS to back him up maybe everything wont get through, but hence why Trump & Co are flooding the zone Edited February 2 by Dougie93 Quote
suds Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 13 minutes ago, CdnFox said: It's not about the military spending. If it was it would just be us and not Mexico and China. Those things might be icing on the cake for him but we are not going to resolve this by a promise to increase military spending alone I don't recall ever saying Canada increasing military spending to 2% was the only issue. It's also a combination of National Security issues, fantanyl, and election promises such as bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and getting rid of trade deficits. Quote
Dougie93 Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 8 minutes ago, suds said: I don't recall ever saying Canada increasing military spending to 2% was the only issue. It's also a combination of National Security issues, fantanyl, it's pretty clear that these tariffs are not really about that the problem for Trump is the courts the courts can overturn the tariffs as being unlawful ; violating the signed trade agreements except for one situation ; National Security if it's emergency tariffs under the rubric of National Security, that makes it Article II War Powers so that gets around the courts, the courts have no jurisdiction over National Security, that is all under the authority of the CinC Trump is trying to force manufacturing to flee Canada for safety from the tariffs in the USA he just needs a National Security excuse to do it, to prevent that from being stopped by a judge Quote
Dougie93 Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 1 hour ago, SpankyMcFarland said: This outrageous move by Trump will generate lasting ill-will and distrust in Canada. Any sensible American leader would be factoring the effect of that into their security calculations as well. what does goodwill & trust from Canada do for America, in a practical sense ? who would factor Canada into their security considerations, other than as Canada being a burden therein ? Quote
Zeitgeist Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Dougie93 said: well I'm not going overboard with a boycott I'm still going to shop at Costco & Walmart the people who work there are local, why would I try to get them laid off ? but I can live without Bourbon & California wine I don't drink orange juice, it's actually really bad for you ; pure sugar I've never bought American cars, I don't trust union made cars, I only buy cars made in Japan I'm trying to think what I buy that is even made in America like most of the American branded products I buy, are actually made in Mexico or China Right, so we can bypass America and trade directly with Mexico and China. Quote
Zeitgeist Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Dougie93 said: alls I'm saying is that Trump & Co may be willing to take much more backlash than Canadian politicians surmise Trump is selling this in America as a National Emergency ; all hands on deck and while trade war is not popular, that is being offset by the mass deportations being very popular indeed and getting rid of Woke DEI and Gender Ideology, that is also very popular in terms of allies, MAGA Republicans don't give a f*ck about allies they see allies as a burden not a boon and they do not like Canada, all they know about Canada is ; Justin Trudeau's Wokest country on earth in terms of swing voters ; Trump doesn't need them anymore Trump is not even playing this for the midterms the Administration is planning to get everything done by then, the assumption being that they only have 18 months on the clock to ram everything through and congress is not even the problem, since everything is being done under Article II War Powers it's only the courts which can stop these Executive Actions and for that Trump is relying on the SOCTUS to back him up maybe everything wont get through, but hence why Trump & Co are flooding the zone Sure, but Trump’s great victory was only a difference in votes of 1.5% of the electorate. If Trump loses the middle, he’ll be resented by the Republican base eventually and Trumpism will join the scrap heap of other political waves. It’s all fun and games until the local factory that relies on certain resources that are hard and expensive to come by in the U.S. has to cut production and lay off workers, or when a once popular wine brand loses 15% of its sales because Canadians stop buying it, or suddenly there’s an exodus of snowbirds from the sunny south and home prices collapse. I haven’t even mentioned the highly overvalued U.S. stock markets that are ripe for major corrections. Trump is gambling with house money, Americans’ money. If this doesn’t go well soon, Trump will be in damage control with an angry electorate. I’m not sure he has as much time as he thinks. I’m also not sure he has a profound plan. A good leader surrounds himself with effective people and listens to them. A dictator mismanages because it’s impossible for one person to have hands on all the levers. Edited February 3 by Zeitgeist Quote
Dougie93 Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said: Right, so we can bypass America and trade directly with Mexico and China. who is "we" ? you are talking like the government can somehow dictate where business goes like if tariffs become structural and enduring then Canadian companies will move across the border to the USA they might keep their head offices here, but they would move their factories to America some of them are already doing that, it's already happening, just on the threat of tariffs business is business, it's not patriotic Edited February 3 by Dougie93 Quote
Zeitgeist Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 1 minute ago, Dougie93 said: who is "we" ? you are talking like the government can't somehow dictate where business goes like if tariffs become structural and enduring then Canadian companies will move across the border to the USA they might keep their head offices here, but they would move their factories to America some of them are already doing that, it's already happening, just on the threat of tariffs business is business, it's not patriotic But businesses can’t just move to other countries if there’s no trade agreement that allows it. It’s a foolish gambit to impose these tariffs and expect that everyone will just accept them without retaliation and carry on. There are about a million Canadians in America and about a million Americans in Canada. There are millions of dual citizens. Yeah everyone is going to just pretend everything is okay when the sales to Canada slow and the cost of products rises. Right because all producers will return to America and export their products to the markets that have become disgruntled with the U.S., especially after afflicting economic hardship on the neighbouring countries. It’s got a very Quixotic look indeed. But y’know, kick ass n all that… Quote
Dougie93 Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 6 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said: But businesses can’t just move to other countries if there’s no trade agreement that allows it. once they have moved to America, they don't need a trade agreement to sell in America there are no internal trade barriers in America only fake country Canada has internal tariffs Quote
Dougie93 Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said: There are about a million Canadians in America and about a million Americans in Canada. There are millions of dual citizens. Yeah everyone is going to just pretend everything is okay when the sales to Canada slow and the cost of products rises. Right because all producers will return to America and export their products to the markets that have become disgruntled with the U.S., especially after afflicting economic hardship on the neighbouring countries. It’s got a very Quixotic look indeed. But y’know, kick ass n all that… businessmen don't care they will go where they have to go the richest guy I know, employs about 200 locals at his shop he's picking up, lock stock and barrel, moving it to Missouri as we speak, he's moving fast, he's not willing to take the hit for Canada he's outta here , and he ain't coming back Trudeau already had him making plans, he was on a hair trigger to go he just says "this is the last straw, I'm out" Edited February 3 by Dougie93 Quote
suds Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 25 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said: A good leader surrounds himself with effective people and listens to them. A dictator mismanages because it’s impossible for one person to have hands on all the levers. As Doug mentioned in a previous post, Trump selected this Stephen Miran whom he appointed as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors who advise Trump on economic matters. In Nov 2024, Miran came out with 'A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System'. All I can say is it's far beyond my knowledge of economics but here's a link if you're interested. It could explain some things that are going on now.... https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf Quote
Zeitgeist Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Dougie93 said: once they have moved to America, they don't need a trade agreement to sell in America there are no internal trade barriers in America only fake country Canada has internal tariffs There are entry requirements for moving to America to live, work, and operate businesses except as permitted under the various designations and sections of USMCA, including the provision to move goods between countries. All of these provisions are out the window if the trade agreement is scrapped. Each country has set conditions within these agreements. I mean sure, the U.S. administration could rip them up and invite businesses in, but those businesses would pretty much be abandoning their business prospects and sales outside America, certainly in Canada, with or without any regulations on account of the Boycotts. Edited February 3 by Zeitgeist Quote
Dougie93 Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, suds said: As Doug mentioned in a previous post, Trump selected this Stephen Miran whom he appointed as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors who advise Trump on economic matters. In Nov 2024, Miran came out with 'A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System'. All I can say is it's far beyond my knowledge of economics but here's a link if you're interested. It could explain some things that are going on now.... https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf well it's not just tariffs the bigger shock for Canada is to come because the second half of the plan is massive tax cuts and deregulation to free up businesses like when Canada is tariffed, and vastly overtaxed, and vastly overregulated the pull to move from Canada to the USA is going to be off the charts meanwhile Canada has absolutely no plans to cut taxes & regulations Canada's entire plan is retaliate, and then, what ? Somehow Trump is going somewhere soon ? Canada thinks the Democrats are going to save Canada ? Quote
Zeitgeist Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 23 minutes ago, Dougie93 said: businessmen don't care they will go where they have to go the richest guy I know, employs about 200 locals at his shop he's picking up, lock stock and barrel, moving it to Missouri as we speak, he's moving fast, he's not willing to take the hit for Canada he's outta here , and he ain't coming back Trudeau already had him making plans, he was on a hair trigger to go he just says "this is the last straw, I'm out" Right, and Canadians will remember these moves and respond accordingly. Quote
Dougie93 Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 2 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said: There are entry requirements for moving to America to live, work, and operate businesses . if you are coming with business, the Americans welcome you with open arms unlike Canada, where the government is hostile to business the Americans fall over themselves to facilitate you 2 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said: Right, and Canadians will remember these moves and respond accordingly. respond how ? the vast majority of his customers were in America he was shipping from here to a distribution site in Missouri now he's just moving the entire shop to the building next door in Missouri Quote
Dougie93 Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 15 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said: , but those businesses would pretty much be abandoning their business prospects and sales outside America, certainly in Canada, with or without any regulations on account of the Boycotts. I doubt that the businesses that are going to move are businesses which export to America these are industrial manufacturing businesses making parts and components mostly it's not the sort of thing which is subject to boycotts Quote
Zeitgeist Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 (edited) 32 minutes ago, suds said: As Doug mentioned in a previous post, Trump selected this Stephen Miran whom he appointed as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors who advise Trump on economic matters. In Nov 2024, Miran came out with 'A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System'. All I can say is it's far beyond my knowledge of economics but here's a link if you're interested. It could explain some things that are going on now.... https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf So I have experience reading these kinds of reports. The trick is to read them backwards. The paper lays out American strengths and policies assuming that certain conditions are maintained, including the persistence of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. Of course that becomes harder to maintain as countries feel more and more taken advantage of. BRIC countries and alternative reserves are waiting to pounce. There’s this grand assumption that the world will accept American abuse for the privilege of selling into an American market that is no longer a good place to sell goods. It’s like saying I’m going to punch you in the face because I know you want to be my friend. The less other countries invest in America, the lower the U.S. dollar will have to become to attract investment. This tariff scheme depends on a strong U.S. dollar and the world propping up the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. 18 minutes ago, Dougie93 said: if you are coming with business, the Americans welcome you with open arms unlike Canada, where the government is hostile to business Actually you can gain entry to Canada by investing in businesses and hiring Canadians. It’s how BC was developed with Hong Kong money. Edited February 3 by Zeitgeist Quote
Dougie93 Posted February 3 Report Posted February 3 1 minute ago, Zeitgeist said: So I have experience reading these kinds of reports. The trick is to read them backwards. The paper lays out American strengths and policies assuming that certain conditions are maintained, including the persistence of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. Of course that becomes harder to maintain as countries feel more and more taken advantage of. BRIC countries and alternative reserves are waiting to pounce. There’s this grand assumption that the world will accept American abuse for the privilege of selling into an American market that is no longer a good place to sell goods. It’s like saying I’m going to punch you in the face because I know you want to be my friend. they can get away with punching Canada & Mexico in the face China, not so much, but that is why the tariff is only 10% on China Quote
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