2024 US Election Polls

[DUI_Offender]

Looks like Trump has slightly closed the gap by roughly 1% in the past week. Harris leads by 2.8% according to 270towin.com.  This is down from about 3.8% at the end of September. Pennsylvania and Arizona are too close to call. Many places like Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are being led by 2% or less. 

This election is going to come down to the wire. 

[impartialobserver]

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

[CdnFox]

7 hours ago, DUI_Offender said:

Looks like Trump has slightly closed the gap by roughly 1% in the past week. Harris leads by 2.8% according to 270towin.com.  This is down from about 3.8% at the end of September. Pennsylvania and Arizona are too close to call. Many places like Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are being led by 2% or less. 

This election is going to come down to the wire. 

A 1% difference is basically just vibrating within the margin of error 

The race is so close on the swing states but both of the top aggregators have them tied. A 1% difference with a 3% margin of error is no difference.

But what's really interesting to me is that they move in sync trump goes up harris goes up. Harris goes down trump goes down. The graphs are almost entirely in lockstep barely fluctuating even half a point of each other. For weeks.

To be direct, this just doesn't happen. Nobody anywhere in America changed their minds? Nothing has influenced people at all? It's not that people have already made up their decision because the undecided goes down and up but Trump and Kamala get the exact same percentages.

So something else is up. I don't know if a lot of these posters are tweaking their representation rates to be on the safe side or what. Pollsters have a lot of wiggle room as to how they weight their specific polls. and that can flatten or change their outcomes.  Sometimes they go with an 'extra conservative" (pardon the pun) methodology to make "Safer" predictions. 

I don't know but i do know what we're seeing is NOT normal. 

 

[impartialobserver]

It was similar to this in 2016 when folks thought HRC would win. She had a slim lead in a lot of states but ended up losing. My guess is that this is why the pollsters are being far more aggressive this year than in 2016. 

[Hodad]

1 hour ago, impartialobserver said:

It was similar to this in 2016 when folks thought HRC would win. She had a slim lead in a lot of states but ended up losing. My guess is that this is why the pollsters are being far more aggressive this year than in 2016. 

I think the wildcard this year is turnout among the youth vote (and to a lesser degree, women) who are by all appearances significantly motivated to turn out and rebuke Trumpism. I suspect (and certainly hope) that turnout for both groups is underestimated in the same way that women were underestimated on midterm ballot issues.

Trump is just so farking gross, the way he talks about and treats women, the attack on reproductive rights, LGBTQ issues, etc. And these are kids that grew up doing active shooter drills in their classrooms. Trump's message of hate, personal grievance and vendetta is a huge turn off and I don't think it's going to sell. 

In 2016, people gave him the benefit of the doubt that his actions wouldn't be as extreme as his rhetoric. Now we know that isn't true and I think those two groups in particular are really looking for a "new way forward." 

[Deluge]

11 hours ago, CdnFox said:

A 1% difference is basically just vibrating within the margin of error 

The race is so close on the swing states but both of the top aggregators have them tied. A 1% difference with a 3% margin of error is no difference.

But what's really interesting to me is that they move in sync trump goes up harris goes up. Harris goes down trump goes down. The graphs are almost entirely in lockstep barely fluctuating even half a point of each other. For weeks.

To be direct, this just doesn't happen. Nobody anywhere in America changed their minds? Nothing has influenced people at all? It's not that people have already made up their decision because the undecided goes down and up but Trump and Kamala get the exact same percentages.

So something else is up. I don't know if a lot of these posters are tweaking their representation rates to be on the safe side or what. Pollsters have a lot of wiggle room as to how they weight their specific polls. and that can flatten or change their outcomes.  Sometimes they go with an 'extra conservative" (pardon the pun) methodology to make "Safer" predictions. 

I don't know but i do know what we're seeing is NOT normal. 

 

The closer we get to the election, the more the not so politically minded voters will want to learn about the candidates. Many will be appalled at just how stupid Harris is and will either not vote or vote for Trump. 

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

It was similar to this in 2016 when folks thought HRC would win. She had a slim lead in a lot of states but ended up losing. My guess is that this is why the pollsters are being far more aggressive this year than in 2016. 

It does make some sense. I remember a lot of posters catching Flack in the media for their "inaccurate" Predictions although I think that had as much to do with voter turnout to be honest.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, Deluge said:

The closer we get to the election, the more the not so politically minded voters will want to learn about the candidates. Many will be appalled at just how stupid Harris is and will either not vote or vote for Trump. 

It is true that in most elections in both the United States and Canada in the last stage of the election, often the last week, opinion can radically change and whoever has momentum tends to do very well all of a sudden and the one who doesn't have the momentum tends to sink. Momentum is extremely underrated in political campaigns.

For that very reason many successful campaigns keep something in their back pocket for the last week or two that really gets people talking. Some policy or something that gets people excited and gives them a little bit of momentum right at the end to build on. So maybe one of these two will whip something out at the last minute and create enough of a kerfuffle to create a momentum shift.

But honestly I'm not sure that's the case. According to the polls we went through assassinations with no change in opinion, the debates cause no change in opinion, the opinion of both candidates goes up and down in the lockstep somehow?

I honestly believe that we are not seeing accurate poll numbers. And based on the campaign's reactions I would say that internal polling is showing trump that he's a little bit ahead more than the poles are suggesting and Kamala is seeing that she's a little bit further behind. That's why she wants another debate and he doesn't, that's why she keeps referring to herself as the underdog, that's why trump is staying quiet and not giving the opposition the opportunity to call him out on an error.

Just reading the tea leaves there, but I honestly feel like Kamala is more worried than trump about the polls at the moment

[Rebound]

5 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

It was similar to this in 2016 when folks thought HRC would win. She had a slim lead in a lot of states but ended up losing. My guess is that this is why the pollsters are being far more aggressive this year than in 2016. 

It was similar to this in 2020 when folks though Biden would win.  And he did win. 

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

It is true that in most elections in both the United States and Canada in the last stage of the election, often the last week, opinion can radically change and whoever has momentum tends to do very well all of a sudden and the one who doesn't have the momentum tends to sink. Momentum is extremely underrated in political campaigns.

For that very reason many successful campaigns keep something in their back pocket for the last week or two that really gets people talking. Some policy or something that gets people excited and gives them a little bit of momentum right at the end to build on. So maybe one of these two will whip something out at the last minute and create enough of a kerfuffle to create a momentum shift.

But honestly I'm not sure that's the case. According to the polls we went through assassinations with no change in opinion, the debates cause no change in opinion, the opinion of both candidates goes up and down in the lockstep somehow?

I honestly believe that we are not seeing accurate poll numbers. And based on the campaign's reactions I would say that internal polling is showing trump that he's a little bit ahead more than the poles are suggesting and Kamala is seeing that she's a little bit further behind. That's why she wants another debate and he doesn't, that's why she keeps referring to herself as the underdog, that's why trump is staying quiet and not giving the opposition the opportunity to call him out on an error.

Just reading the tea leaves there, but I honestly feel like Kamala is more worried than trump about the polls at the moment

Trump talks about the polls a lot more than Kamala Harris does. 

[Legato]

6 minutes ago, Rebound said:

It was similar to this in 2020 when folks though Biden would win.  And he did win. 

Trump talks about the polls a lot more than Kamala Harris does. 

Polls don't go well with salad.

[CdnFox]

15 minutes ago, Rebound said:

It was similar to this in 2020 when folks though Biden would win.  And he did win. 

 

What? No it wasn't, biden had a massive edge up in the polls and it grew bigger and bigger as the race went on and then trump closed the gap quite a bit near the end but ran out of road before the eleciton 

it was NOTHING IN THE SLIGHEST like this?!?  Where the hell are you getting THAT from?

17 minutes ago, Rebound said:

Trump talks about the polls a lot more than Kamala Harris does. 

Yeah. You don't usually do that unless you're winning.  If you're not you say "the only poll that matters is on election day'. 

Neither is winning according to the public polls it's a completely dead heat with neither one having even an inch on the other.  For over a month.  That CANT be right. 

Their behavior suggests that internal polling is favoring trump, but who can say for sure.