Conservatives 42, NDP 22, Liberals 22 > NDP tied with Liberals for first time since 2015. (Nanos)

[CdnFox]

PowerPoint Presentation (nanos.co)

– The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Conservatives at 41.6 per cent, followed by the NDP at 21.6 per cent, the Liberals at 21.5 per cent, the BQ at 7.1 per cent, the Greens at 5.7 per cent and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) at 1.9 per cent.

Nanos tracking has Poilievre as the preferred choice as PM at 35.1 per cent of Canadians followed by Trudeau (19.4%), Singh (18.5%), May (5.3%) and Bernier (1.7%). Sixteen per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.

 

So technically the liberals are in third place although the margin makes the number largely meaningless. But it does show that the liberals are very vulnerable at this point to a complete collapse. If the campaign doesn't go their way they could have a Kim Campbell moment and never recover fully.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

So technically the liberals are in third place

 🤡

[CdnFox]

8 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

 🤡

indeed. They are clowns, and the vote splitting next election is going to be horrendous for them.

I think the biggest problem tho is going to be voter turn out.  We saw the effect of that in ontario last provincial election where people just didn't like the libs or the ndp and didn't want to vote for Ford so they just stayed home in huge numbers.. 

Honestly the libs could wind up with closer to 20 seats next election

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

indeed.

😁

[CITIZEN_2015]

Polls months before election is meaningless. The campaign period especially the last week of it can change numbers quite a lot. I remember the 1993 Federal election and how conservatives were ahead in polls and in the last few weeks they were evaporated.

[CdnFox]

46 minutes ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

Polls months before election is meaningless. The campaign period especially the last week of it can change numbers quite a lot. I remember the 1993 Federal election and how conservatives were ahead in polls and in the last few weeks they were evaporated.

They are not meaningless at all. In fact they are very important. Not so much in isolation but as a trend line it says a great deal.

Sure things can always change. God knows there's been no end of upsets in the history of Canada, and that's why Trudeau doesn't want to quit. As long as he stays in the game there's at least the possibility that some magical miracle will happen and change his fortunes.

Campaigns matter. For sure they do. But knowing the history and understanding the dynamics of what's happening is very important and we can learn a lot about where Canadians are by looking at the polls over the last several months.

And what we're seeing is a fundamental shift as people move away from more woke politics and begin to fear for their future. They no longer have faith in the left to deliver real opportunity.

That's a moment in history. And certainly it does not look good for the liberals.

[Queenmandy85]

It is not the percentage represented in the popular vote polls that counts. It is how they manifest as seats. 

338 Canada shows the CPC with 43% of the popular vote and the Grits with 22%. That leaves the Socreds in a minority position.

But the seat count gives the CPC / Socreds with 228 seats and the Liberals with 53 seats. The Bloc polls at 8% popular vote but that comes out at 42 seats.

So, if the election were held on Oct. 6, 2024, Mr. Poilievre would have the greatest majority in history. Given that the House of Commons recently voted non-confidence in Mr. Poilievre, there is no mystery as to why the other parties wish to prevent the CPC tsunami for as long as possible. Both the NDP and the Bloc have stated they do not want Pierre Poilievre  being appointed First Minister. They would prefer the current ministry to a Socred one.

 

[CdnFox]

57 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

It is not the percentage represented in the popular vote polls that counts. It is how they manifest as seats. 

338 Canada shows the CPC with 43% of the popular vote and the Grits with 22%. That leaves the Socreds in a minority position.

 

We don't have any Socreds in Canada

Quote

 

Which means right off the bat you show that you are utterly ignorant of our politics and unqualified to speak on it. Way to go.

But the seat count gives the CPC / Socreds with 228 seats and the Liberals with 53 seats. The Bloc polls at 8% popular vote but that comes out at 42 seats.

So, if the election were held on Oct. 6, 2024, Mr. Poilievre would have the greatest majority in history. Given that the House of Commons recently voted non-confidence in Mr. Poilievre, there is no mystery as to why the other parties wish to prevent the CPC tsunami for as long as possible. Both the NDP and the Bloc have stated they do not want Pierre Poilievre  being appointed First Minister. They would prefer the current ministry to a Socred one.

 

And you go on to prove it again

Jaggers won't bring the government down because he's looking for his pension. As of March 1st you will watch his posture change

The block doesn't want to bring the government down because it wants to make sure that there's still a minority. Even if the liberals were the ones who were going to win the Majority they would be unhappy with that. They would have no power

[August1991]

On the OAP issue, this government will fall.

Maybe milk.

We will have a Winter election

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, August1991 said:

On the OAP issue, this government will fall.

Maybe milk.

We will have a Winter election

ok .

[NAME REMOVED]

On 10/8/2024 at 5:16 PM, CITIZEN_2015 said:

Polls months before election is meaningless. The campaign period especially the last week of it can change numbers quite a lot. I remember the 1993 Federal election and how conservatives were ahead in polls and in the last few weeks they were evaporated.

The Progressive Conservatives were not ahead in the last few weeks of 1993. They were trailing considerably, until they ran the infamous "face" ads, suggesting Canada should be embarrassed to have Chretien as PM due to his Bells Palsy, which ultimately sunk them completely. 

 

The Liberal Party is toast. 

Edited October 11, 2024 by DUI_Offender

[CITIZEN_2015]

9 hours ago, DUI_Offender said:

The Progressive Conservatives were not ahead in the last few weeks of 1993. They were trailing considerably, until they ran the infamous "face" ads, suggesting Canada should be embarrassed to have Chretien as PM due to his Bells Palsy, which ultimately sunk them completely. 

 

The Liberal Party is toast. 

My point exactly. The last few weeks is decisive especially the televised debates. Even in 2015 Harper was ahead in polls when campaign started but at the end they were toasted. 

[CdnFox]

26 minutes ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

My point exactly. The last few weeks is decisive especially the televised debates. Even in 2015 Harper was ahead in polls when campaign started but at the end they were toasted. 

I think you misunderstand his point and the value and information provided by polling.  His point appears to me to be that polling provides an indication of trends and momentum - the PC were trending down and we could all see it, and then a mistake crashed them. 

With regards to harper it was pretty obvious to more experienced tea leaf readers what was happening. Harper's base didn't change much, he was polling ahead of the ndp and libs because their vote was split and it was split almost perfectly.  Voters had been turned against harper and they were willing to vote for whichever party could beat him. That wasn't clear, and the ndp and libs were neck in neck. Most of us wathcing it knew that the first person to make a mistake and drop in the polls would crash hard and the other would win the election . Mulcair screwed up the french debate and things went as predicted. 

It is absolutely true that campaigns matter and a mistake in the campaign can change things tremendously. But it is also equally true that the poles can paint it very clear picture of how the electorate is feeling before the election even starts and gives strong clues and indicators as to how things are going to go.

It's kind of like only the last series in the Stanley Cup actually matters and anything can happen and there have been Underdog wins before. But if you've watched the series from beginning to end you probably have a pretty good idea of who's going to win and who the underdog is and what challenges they are going to have to overcome in order to win a come from behind victory.

Trudeau is very much in an even weaker position than the conservatives were in Kim Campbell's election. He has completely lost the faith of the public to the point where they're getting annoyed every time they see him. He has almost nothing to hold up as being successful in his track record and what he has done is generally disliked by the people. Bank of him has begun to spread to the rest of the party which further weakens their position

They have used up all their tricks, they have lost the faith of the people, and there's not much they can say to get it back

Meanwhile Poilievre is becoming more popular, has more faith from the people, and the policies that he's put forward so far are general but very well liked. Which means he has a strong opportunity to introduce specifics and have everyone focus and pay attention on that and differentiate himself strongly from the liberals.

So his ability to generate positive momentum is huge and the liberals ability is very low. And that helps set the backdrop for the election campaign and what strategies may or may not be successful

[ironstone]

Another Liberal/NDP coalition isn't out of the question should the poll numbers stay about the same come election day.

The Conservatives should be calling out both parties about whether they are considering such a partnership without telling Canadians in advance.

[CdnFox]

40 minutes ago, ironstone said:

Another Liberal/NDP coalition isn't out of the question should the poll numbers stay about the same come election day.

The Conservatives should be calling out both parties about whether they are considering such a partnership without telling Canadians in advance.

Well they absolutely should be calling out both parties on their little coalition tricks, but if the polling numbers stay the same as they are today conservatives will win a massive majority. There will be no opportunity for a coalition government of any type.

But I absolutely agree that they should be reminding NDP voters that if they're voting NDP they're really voting liberal.