Army Guy Posted June 25 Report Share Posted June 25 4 hours ago, DUI_Offender said: It is a sad day, when one would trust Russia over their own intelligence community. Their getting they're intel from both sides...Russian and Ukrainian...and making educated guesses...thats what intel is best guesses... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUI_Offender Posted June 25 Report Share Posted June 25 12 hours ago, Army Guy said: Their getting they're intel from both sides...Russian and Ukrainian...and making educated guesses...thats what intel is best guesses... Sorry I can't debate for a while. I am in mourning for the Oilers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perspektiv Posted June 25 Author Report Share Posted June 25 29 minutes ago, DUI_Offender said: I am in mourning for the Oilers. They put in a hell of a fight, and there literally is nothing that they can be ashamed of. They just ran out of gas after that monumental effort. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonbox Posted June 25 Report Share Posted June 25 13 hours ago, Army Guy said: to meet that expenditure one needs to have a manufacturing ability of well over 600,000 rounds a month ( Thats basic math) ... No, because they're burning through stockpiles of ancient North Korean ammunition going back to the 70's. 13 hours ago, Army Guy said: .add to the mix China and NK and production must exceed 600,000 rounds a month or Russia could not sustain the numbers they are firing daily.... China is not supplying Russia with ammunition. They're already in hot water for providing components to Russian industry. 13 hours ago, Army Guy said: My entire narrative has been that NATO is not stepping up in supplying enough new equipment to make a difference, Ukraine is hurting for tanks, IFV's, anti tank weapons, aircraft, just about everything, yes NATO has agree to supply F-16's, and some Air defense systems, but it takes more to win a war being fought with arty shells...( to which NATO is struggling to supply Ukraine it's supply of 5000 rounds a day)... I agree they're not stepping up or supplying enough, but it's a bit weird to say it's not making a difference. Regardless, a big problem with ammunition production is that there was nowhere to use it. You can only stockpile so much (since it deteriorates), but with a concerted effort the West could outproduce Russia/NK by orders of magnitude. Russia's economy is smaller than Canada's. Let that sink in. 13 hours ago, Army Guy said: Most western media sources are stating that Russia is gaining ground in almost every sector...with some small exceptions...are you suggesting they are wrong....and do you have a source for that.... Sources you're not providing, that were probably from April/May, and that turned out to be wildly overblown. Russia's advances were marginal, barely noticeable on a map, and have since stalled. That was before the latest aid packages even started trickling in. As I said, I really think you need to compare a map of the frontlines from Dec 2022, to today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUI_Offender Posted June 25 Report Share Posted June 25 2 hours ago, Moonbox said: No, because they're burning through stockpiles of ancient North Korean ammunition going back to the 70's. China is not supplying Russia with ammunition. They're already in hot water for providing components to Russian industry. I agree they're not stepping up or supplying enough, but it's a bit weird to say it's not making a difference. Regardless, a big problem with ammunition production is that there was nowhere to use it. You can only stockpile so much (since it deteriorates), but with a concerted effort the West could outproduce Russia/NK by orders of magnitude. Russia's economy is smaller than Canada's. Let that sink in. Sources you're not providing, that were probably from April/May, and that turned out to be wildly overblown. Russia's advances were marginal, barely noticeable on a map, and have since stalled. That was before the latest aid packages even started trickling in. As I said, I really think you need to compare a map of the frontlines from Dec 2022, to today. Post of the day candidate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Guy Posted June 25 Report Share Posted June 25 4 hours ago, Moonbox said: No, because they're burning through stockpiles of ancient North Korean ammunition going back to the 70's. China is not supplying Russia with ammunition. They're already in hot water for providing components to Russian industry. I agree they're not stepping up or supplying enough, but it's a bit weird to say it's not making a difference. Regardless, a big problem with ammunition production is that there was nowhere to use it. You can only stockpile so much (since it deteriorates), but with a concerted effort the West could outproduce Russia/NK by orders of magnitude. Russia's economy is smaller than Canada's. Let that sink in. Sources you're not providing, that were probably from April/May, and that turned out to be wildly overblown. Russia's advances were marginal, barely noticeable on a map, and have since stalled. That was before the latest aid packages even started trickling in. As I said, I really think you need to compare a map of the frontlines from Dec 2022, to today. The fact that NK is still providing shipments of Arty ammo, and various other supplies means they must have Massive stockpiles of munitions, which is highly possible as they are still at war with the south, but stock piles this huge would be mind blowing ....However NK ammo production has been stepped up all being diverted to Russia. Nobody can say for sure what NK production capacity is right now, but i'm sure it is not as low as you have started...unless you have a source... Thats speculation on your part, on one side you say NK does not have the production capacity, and then say China is not supplying Ammo , so where is it almost 600,000 a month coming from...As you state you can only stock pile so much... There is very little effort ongoing by the west to massively out produce The communist's, The US has contributed only 1.5 bil to ammo production most of that is going to Canada and Poland to produce ammo for Ukraine...Today right at this minute US and other NATO countries could not even come close to Communist ammo production , That's according to the sources i and DUI have supplied... Russia/China/NK economy is not like ours, they can focus on production of any product they like,Russia is right as we speak producing tanks and arty systems at an increased rate, the labor is free, all they need is resources, all available within their own countries...making arty ammo does not take rocket science to do... I have and there has been lots of movement slow but steady...i remember months ago the heavy fighting was around backmout , which is long in the rear view mirror... below is a source from this month, you compare it to last years and tell me the Russian are not making steady progress, and like i said it has cost the russian plenty...a country not to concern with casualty numbers, but it has also placed a severe dent in ukraine troop levels as well, made evident by the arrests of thousands of military age men being arrested for fleeing the country, and by lowering the age and restriction for those eligible....all pointing to ukraines population is also tired of paying a huge price for this conflict... NATO contributions have petered out, have you heard of any new tanks, or arty pieces being sent...all i hear is limited amounts of arty ammo, and soon a few F-16s and some a/d systems...Ukraine have withdrawn it's abrams, leopard fleets of tanks due to parts and damage concerns...Challenger tanks are being used sparely... Ukraine is putting more Russian gear back into battle than NATO could ever dream of sending...lets face it NATO emptied our the back of the closet sent it's crap which was limited in numbers becasue NATO does not want to upset Russia... Canada could have sent it's entire tank fleet, most of it was not running anyways, but it could have been used for spare parts or repaired...but instead we sent over what 8 tanks...leoIIA4 tanks , here in canada we classified them as training tanks as they were not upgraded for combat operations...Thats how much NATO is concerned about winning this war... NATO is giving the bear minimum to keep Russia for over running the country...but don't pat them on the back to hard, because their support is dying just look at the US congress and it's stalling of its contribution( that stall gave Russia the advantage, and killed thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.......then look around and look at what the rest of europe is giving barely nothing... Take a look at the source below from a ukrainian media source, it shows recent advances by russia, all across the entire front there are russian advances, and like i said there are some exceptions where Ukrainian troops have advanced but they are contained https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-forces-make-dual-front-advance-in-donetsk-oblast/ar-BB1oveYi# 2 hours ago, DUI_Offender said: Post of the day candidate. I like your enthusiasm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonbox Posted June 25 Report Share Posted June 25 (edited) 5 hours ago, Army Guy said: The fact that NK is still providing shipments of Arty ammo, and various other supplies means they must have Massive stockpiles of munitions, which is highly possible as they are still at war with the south, but stock piles this huge would be mind blowing.... ...stockpiles built up over 50 years, significantly deteriorated, with high dud rates and reportedly often stripped of de-copper and prone to warp barrels or misfire. 5 hours ago, Army Guy said: Thats speculation on your part, on one side you say NK does not have the production capacity, and then say China is not supplying Ammo , so where is it almost 600,000 a month coming from...As you state you can only stock pile so much... They're coming from stockpiles. I thought that was clear. Even if they are capable of producing 600,000 shells together, Russia and North Korea can't hope to compete when the West scales up production. This is a short-term advantage. In a year it will be greatly diminished. In two years it will be gone. South Korea is now considering supplying Ukraine, and that's one of the world's largest economies vs it's third-world shithole neighbour. 5 hours ago, Army Guy said: I have and there has been lots of movement slow but steady...i remember months ago the heavy fighting was around backmout , which is long in the rear view mirror... The fighting around Bakhmut was over a year ago. The Ukrainians have since made some gains, and the Russians have made some of their own. Look at the map. 5 hours ago, Army Guy said: below is a source from this month, you compare it to last years and tell me the Russian are not making steady progress Steady progress...measured in meters and tens of thousands of thousands of monthly casualties. 5 hours ago, Army Guy said: NATO contributions have petered out, have you heard of any new tanks, or arty pieces being sent...all i hear is limited amounts of arty ammo, and soon a few F-16s and some a/d systems...Ukraine have withdrawn it's abrams, leopard fleets of tanks due to parts and damage concerns...Challenger tanks are being used sparely... I heard of +$60B recently being committed by US congress in the last month or so. I also heard about +$300B in frozen Russian assets being used to finance a $50B loan worth of further military aid just for this year. This is all pennies to NATO in the West, and with it they're hobbling what's historically been its greatest adversary. The point I'm trying to make here is that it's the delays or abandonment of aid to Ukraine that's causing their problems. Vladimir Putin's info-op is to to convince people like you that there's no hope - that Russia can pay the cost of blood and outlast the West, or that properly supporting Ukraine will escalate the conflict out of hand. Neither of these are true, but there are lots of people out there unwittingly arguing these points for him. Ask yourself, is there any possible link between Russia's brutally costly foray into Kharkiv Oblast from April/May, and the fact this was when the Congress was debating the aid bill? Edited June 26 by Moonbox 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUI_Offender Posted June 25 Report Share Posted June 25 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: The fact that NK is still providing shipments of Arty ammo, and various other supplies means they must have Massive stockpiles of munitions, which is highly possible as they are still at war with the south, North and South Korea have been at "war" with each other since 1953, yet not a single shot has been fired. 71 years and counting... 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: but stock piles this huge would be mind blowing ....However NK ammo production has been stepped up all being diverted to Russia. Nobody can say for sure what NK production capacity is right now, but i'm sure it is not as low as you have started...unless you have a source... North Korea is a backward nation with most of it's people impoverished and desolate. Their ammo and military are all for show. They do not have the technology to make good ammunition. 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: There is very little effort ongoing by the west to massively out produce The communist's Russia is not Communist. Only North Korea is. China is only communist in name, as they enjoy a free market economy. So China is not, by definition communist. 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: The US has contributed only 1.5 bil to ammo production most of that is going to Canada and Poland to produce ammo for Ukraine... Source? 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: Today right at this minute US and other NATO countries could not even come close to Communist ammo production , That's according to the sources i and DUI have supplied... Again, Russia is not communist. 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: Russia/China/NK economy is not like ours China's economy is close to ours. It's changed dramatically in the last 30 years. Russia is switching to a wartime economy, and it's people will suffer. North Korea does not ahve the population or technology to produce modern technological war supplies. 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: , they can focus on production of any product they like,Russia is right as we speak producing tanks and arty systems at an increased rate, the labor is free, The labour is not free. 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: below is a source from this month, you compare it to last years and tell me the Russian are not making steady progress, and like i said it has cost the russian plenty...a country not to concern with casualty numbers, but it has also placed a severe dent in ukraine troop levels as well, made evident by the arrests of thousands of military age men being arrested for fleeing the country, and by lowering the age and restriction for those eligible....all pointing to ukraines population is also tired of paying a huge price for this conflict... Ukrainians will fight far longer than the Russians, since they know by their history what Russia could do to them. If the Russians are defeated, they will simply leave the Ukraine. If the Ukrainians are defeated, there could be a genocide. They will indeed be persecuted, and Russia will most likely punish the civilian population for years to come. 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: NATO contributions have petered out, have you heard of any new tanks, or arty pieces being sent Yes. from many countires. Canada just agreed to contribute $5 Billion to the Ukraine. That is on top of donations from other NATO countries, and the United States. 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: lets face it NATO emptied our the back of the closet sent it's crap which was limited in numbers becasue NATO does not want to upset Russia... I do not think you understand what NATO is. NATO was created specifically by several nations, that agreed to defend each other from Russian aggression. The whole point of NATO is to defend their client states against Russia. They don't care about upsetting Russia. if they did, they would not have contributed anything to Ukraine. 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: Canada could have sent it's entire tank fleet, most of it was not running anyways, but it could have been used for spare parts or repaired...but instead we sent over what 8 tanks...leoIIA4 tanks , here in canada we classified them as training tanks as they were not upgraded for combat operations...Thats how much NATO is concerned about winning this war... Canada is only one of 32 countries that are in NATO. Canada also does not prioritise military spending like some other nations. 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: NATO is giving the bear minimum to keep Russia for over running the country... This is, and has always been blatantly false. 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: but don't pat them on the back to hard, because their support is dying just look at the US congress and it's stalling of its contribution( that stall gave Russia the advantage, and killed thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.......then look around and look at what the rest of europe is giving barely nothing... The rest of Europe have given billions to the Ukraine just this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Guy Posted June 26 Report Share Posted June 26 18 hours ago, Moonbox said: 1......stockpiles built up over 50 years, significantly deteriorated, with high dud rates and reportedly often stripped of de-copper and prone to warp barrels or misfire. They're coming from stockpiles. I thought that was clear. Even if they are capable of producing 600,000 shells together, Russia and North Korea can't hope to compete when the West scales up production. This is a short-term advantage. In a year it will be greatly diminished. In two years it will be gone. South Korea is now considering supplying Ukraine, and that's one of the world's largest economies vs it's third-world shithole neighbour. 2....The fighting around Bakhmut was over a year ago. The Ukrainians have since made some gains, and the Russians have made some of their own. Look at the map. Steady progress...measured in meters and tens of thousands of thousands of monthly casualties. 3....I heard of +$60B recently being committed by US congress in the last month or so. I also heard about +$300B in frozen Russian assets being used to finance a $50B loan worth of further military aid just for this year. This is all pennies to NATO in the West, and with it they're hobbling what's historically been its greatest adversary. 4....The point I'm trying to make here is that it's the delays or abandonment of aid to Ukraine that's causing their problems. Vladimir Putin's info-op is to to convince people like you that there's no hope - that Russia can pay the cost of blood and outlast the West, or that properly supporting Ukraine will escalate the conflict out of hand. Neither of these are true, but there are lots of people out there unwittingly arguing these points for him. Ask yourself, is there any possible link between Russia's brutally costly foray into Kharkiv Oblast from April/May, and the fact this was when the Congress was debating the aid bill? 1....Yes they do have massive stockpiles of ammunition, but it is not as old as you suggest, And the fact they have a high dud rate is a moot point Russians are still firing it at high rates of fire. You are discounting the fact that NK is manufacturing not just arty ammo for russia but small arms , RPG, grenades etc...with their manufacturing plants running at full capacity..I can't find a source form NK production rates but i'm sure they are not as small as both you and DUI have suggested. Quote One of the crucial factors to consider is the quality of the ammunition. To estimate the potential dud rate of artillery ammo, it's essential to determine the year of production and gather past performance information. We reached out to the team behind UAWeapons, a well-known X (former Twitter) account managed by a group of specialists who have provided valuable insights and tracked weaponry during the war. According to their assessment, the ammunition is likely from the period between 2000 and 2010, indicating that it is not of Soviet-era production. However, there is a possibility of a relatively high dud rate, possibly as high as 25%. While it's challenging to provide an exact calculation of the dud rate, we have valid reasons to anticipate that it may be more than usual, though an accurate figure is currently unavailable. https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/counting-the-rounds-north-korean As for US production capacity here are US numbers...please note that they are not going to reach 100,000 a month capacity until 2026...Russia today is already at 250,000 a month....And as US increases their capacity so is Russia so this is not a short term advantage, this is a statement of fact Russia is out producing ALL of NATO by more than 2 to 1...and will continue well past the end date of this conflict... Quote Army officials have recently stated that 155mm artillery munition production will increase to 28,000 per month in October, which is double what the Army was producing at the start of the year. The plan is to build roughly 60,000 a month in FY24, reaching 80,000 by FY25. By FY26, the plan is to build 100,000 a month. https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/10/06/us-army-awards-15b-to-boost-global-production-of-artillery-rounds/ The research on artillery rounds by Bain & Company, which drew on publicly available information, found that Russian factories were forecast to manufacture or refurbish about 4.5 million artillery shells this year compared with a combined production of about 1.3 million rounds across European nations and the US. https://news.sky.com/story/russia-is-producing-artillery-shells-around-three-times-faster-than-ukraine-s-western-allies-and-for-about-a-quarter-of-the-cost-13143224 Quote Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html 2....Bakhmut is firmly under Russia control and is long in the back rear mirror, with them advancing on other new fronts...I have looked at the map and Russia is gaining far more ground than Ukrainian forces the maps i provided show that Ukraine is doing a out of this world job at stalling Russian advances, but the fact remain Russia is gaining ground daily...and with NATO assistance on the down low right now these gains are not going to stop...BTW Russia does not care how many men or equipment it losses it only looks at gains.... 3... yes some of that aid is now starting to arrive, and won't take full effect for atleast a month in qtys that matter or make a difference, the problem right now is not in the dollar amount that is provided to Ukraine, dollars don't kill Russians , military equipment and ammo kills russians, western manufactures can not produce the much needed equipment ukraine needs nor is it providing the much needed vehs...The fact that Ukraine gets most of it's new to them tanks from Russia off the battlefield is very telling... You say it is all pennies, but if that was the case why have they not decided to donate in the tens of dollar range, and why has the rest of NATO atleast not meet the US in the middle with donations...Ukraine has been a wake up call to all of NATO except Canada they are now worried about their own stocks and equipment states, so much so that some countries are already on a war footing, with conscription or looking hard at conscription including German...so anything given to Ukraine is a second priority.... 4... I 100 % agree, the delays in funding has caused massive set backs in Ukraine, and thats just the start of it...NATO weapons are now in short supply for many reasons NATO is rearming, Ukraine has empty out most of the cupboards of old and outdated equipment and ammo, and is now competing with NATO rearming and replacing of stocks given to Ukraine...and while the US and some German companies are boosting production levels the rest of NATO is still asleep... People like me have lived this exact thing, once the war in Afghanistan became unpopular support for the war dwindled to a mere drip...Canadian soldiers did what they were sent over to do, while our government dithered on procurement getting equipment that would save lives, NATO is doing the same thing......same is going on right here the war has gone on long enough US citizens are concerned why they are paying most of the bills while other NATO countries seem to be asleep at the switch...all while Ukrainian soldiers are giving it their all....while we count the dollars and decide should we give more or not... Quote Russia’s ‘transformed’ economy Officials are also closely watching Russia’s economy for signs of how the interplay between a super-charged defense sector, Western sanctions, and Putin’s efforts to gird his economy for war impact Russia’s ability to sustain the conflict. The war has absolutely “transformed” Russia’s economy, the NATO official said, from the post-Soviet period when oil was the leading sector. Now, defense is the largest sector of the Russian economy, and oil is paying for it. That creates some long-term imbalances that will likely be problematic for Russia, but for now, it’s working, the NATO official and Basham, the US European Command official, both said. “In the short term — say, the next 18 months or so — it may be unsophisticated, but it’s a durable economy,” the NATO official said. The Pentagon is weighing whether to tap into the last remaining source of funding it has — but it has previously been reluctant to spend any of that remaining money without assurances it would be reimbursed by Congress, because taking from DoD stockpiles with no plan to replenish that equipment could impact US military readiness, CNN has previously reported. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/21/ukraine-is-mobilizing-tens-of-thousands-of-new-troops-they-need-a-lot-more-armored-vehicles/ Look no one more than me wants to see Mother russia go down in flames, and NATO could do this in a blink of an eye, but it does not want to do it...it will provide enough stuff to make people like you seem like this is a winnable exercise...but at current levels it is not all it manages to do is status quo... there is just to many other factors preventing NATO from stepping up and winning this by shear equipment like tanks , arty, just the basics, instead of the piecemeal stuff they already gave take...NATO looks like it is spending huge dollars on this conflict, but conflicts are expensive...Ukraine is stuck in the middle it lacks manpower, it laks vehs, it lacks equipment, it lacks ammo and it lacks in NATO funding...Ukraine is being bleed white by this conflict just look at the published deaths...the entire country is one big shell crater, it will cost trillions to rebuild it all and NATO is close to being bleed out as well, out of funding it is willing to give away, lack of equipment and other stores....why would they not want to atleast sit down at the table and find out what it will take to stop all of this... One last question, what is Trumps take on this thing, he has said he will stop this in one day, but How...will he turn off the taps...What is Americas take on this are they willing to continue to support this or are they tired of it all... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Guy Posted June 26 Report Share Posted June 26 18 hours ago, DUI_Offender said: 1...North and South Korea have been at "war" with each other since 1953, yet not a single shot has been fired. 71 years and counting... 2...North Korea is a backward nation with most of it's people impoverished and desolate. Their ammo and military are all for show. They do not have the technology to make good ammunition. Russia is not Communist. Only North Korea is. China is only communist in name, as they enjoy a free market economy. So China is not, by definition communist. Source? Again, Russia is not communist. China's economy is close to ours. It's changed dramatically in the last 30 years. Russia is switching to a wartime economy, and it's people will suffer. North Korea does not ahve the population or technology to produce modern technological war supplies. The labour is not free. Ukrainians will fight far longer than the Russians, since they know by their history what Russia could do to them. If the Russians are defeated, they will simply leave the Ukraine. If the Ukrainians are defeated, there could be a genocide. They will indeed be persecuted, and Russia will most likely punish the civilian population for years to come. Yes. from many countries. Canada just agreed to contribute $5 Billion to the Ukraine. That is on top of donations from other NATO countries, and the United States. I do not think you understand what NATO is. NATO was created specifically by several nations, that agreed to defend each other from Russian aggression. The whole point of NATO is to defend their client states against Russia. They don't care about upsetting Russia. if they did, they would not have contributed anything to Ukraine. Canada is only one of 32 countries that are in NATO. Canada also does not prioritise military spending like some other nations. This is, and has always been blatantly false. The rest of Europe have given billions to the Ukraine just this year. 1.... not true, shots are traded all the time, just last week a patrol of north koreans crossed over the border and South koreans opened fire on them... 2... Thats a moot point when your firing 20,000 rounds a day... https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/10/06/us-army-awards-15b-to-boost-global-production-of-artillery-rounds/ Well they sure ain't paying north american wages are they, and in NK what kind of wages do your think they're getting.... YES , but war is expensive...and 5 bil could be expended in just a couple of days fighting... Not that this is great example, but during OP medusa in Afghanistan, one battle group expended all of it war stocks in afghanistan,in one day...and had to borrow massive amounts off the US, then a couple days later we expended most of what Canada had in storage and had to borrow more form the US again ... ...that was a battle group...1/2 a brigade group...Ukraine is fighting with dozens of brigade units... Well tell me why is Russia not been kicked out of ukraine yet, why are they are a stalemate for the most part, are you saying NATO is giving it the old 100%...I'm saying bullshit...NATO could supply Ukraine with the equipment to kick Russia off the planet and yet it does just enough to keep the status quo, don't want to pi$$ of the bear... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonbox Posted June 26 Report Share Posted June 26 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: 1....Yes they do have massive stockpiles of ammunition, but it is not as old as you suggest, And the fact they have a high dud rate is a moot point Russians are still firing it at high rates of fire. You are discounting the fact that NK is manufacturing not just arty ammo for russia but small arms , RPG, grenades etc...with their manufacturing plants running at full capacity If you're arguing the numerical advantage of Russia's munitions, how is it a moot point that a large portion of them miss their target and turn out to be duds even if they hit? That's the exact opposite of moot. If # of artillery shells was the determining factor of the war, it would be over already. The reality is that Russian equipment has always been garbage. It was garbage during the Cold War, and they've only fallen further behind. Combine that with the fact that Russian training, leadership, C&C and intelligence is all dogshit. Look back at Summer 2023, when Russia was losing artillery systems at a 4:1 or worse ratio, despite firing 7x more shells per month. 3 hours ago, Army Guy said: You say it is all pennies, but if that was the case why have they not decided to donate in the tens of dollar range, and why has the rest of NATO atleast not meet the US in the middle with donations A lot of it has to do with public perception and Vladimir Putin's info ops. The slow-roll nature of all of the equipment being donated has been a direct consequence of limp escalatory threats from the Kremlin, and prevaricating on it here. The Red Line has been feebly threatened by Putin, but continuously pushed by NATO, over and over. We call their bluffs, but it's an agonizingly slow process. First it was long range artillery, then it was tanks and AA systems, then it was cluster munitions, then fighter planes, then permission to strike within Russia...the piecemeal nature has been tortuous and costly. Arguments like the ones you're making here, however, are actively making the situation worse. It's the narrative that Putin is pushing - and you're buying into it and the negative feedback loop it leads to. The situation is hopeless, so we might as well stop supplying aid, which makes to situation worse, making it seem more hopeless, and so on. 3 hours ago, Army Guy said: I have looked at the map and Russia is gaining far more ground than Ukrainian forces the maps i provided show that Ukraine is doing a out of this world job at stalling Russian advances, but the fact remain Russia is gaining ground daily I'm not sure you really have: Man, look at all that progress Russia's making...they're advancing daily...from one blade of grass to the next. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Guy Posted June 27 Report Share Posted June 27 5 hours ago, Moonbox said: If you're arguing the numerical advantage of Russia's munitions, how is it a moot point that a large portion of them miss their target and turn out to be duds even if they hit? That's the exact opposite of moot. If # of artillery shells was the determining factor of the war, it would be over already. The reality is that Russian equipment has always been garbage. It was garbage during the Cold War, and they've only fallen further behind. Combine that with the fact that Russian training, leadership, C&C and intelligence is all dogshit. Look back at Summer 2023, when Russia was losing artillery systems at a 4:1 or worse ratio, despite firing 7x more shells per month. A lot of it has to do with public perception and Vladimir Putin's info ops. The slow-roll nature of all of the equipment being donated has been a direct consequence of limp escalatory threats from the Kremlin, and prevaricating on it here. The Red Line has been feebly threatened by Putin, but continuously pushed by NATO, over and over. We call their bluffs, but it's an agonizingly slow process. First it was long range artillery, then it was tanks and AA systems, then it was cluster munitions, then fighter planes, then permission to strike within Russia...the piecemeal nature has been tortuous and costly. Arguments like the ones you're making here, however, are actively making the situation worse. It's the narrative that Putin is pushing - and you're buying into it and the negative feedback loop it leads to. The situation is hopeless, so we might as well stop supplying aid, which makes to situation worse, making it seem more hopeless, and so on. I'm not sure you really have: Man, look at all that progress Russia's making...they're advancing daily...from one blade of grass to the next. Thats not my point, your claim is about NK ammo being to old, thats a myth, your claim about it being of inferior quality is right...that being said there is 4 times the amount of arty rounds falling from the sky, it does not matter if 25 % is duds becasue 75 % is still landing on Ukrainian troops...As for accuracy both sides are having issue with accuracy due to barrel wear...and not many spare barrels...it's not just a russian thing... Again not my point you said NATO and its production capacity was going to,leave Russia's and NK in the dust, thats a myth. US capacity will never be as large as Russia's for years to come...Arty is the main weapon of choice in this conflict and has claimed 80 % of all the casualties on both sides...so far...Yes Russia does not rely on quality of training, but rather in quantity...that's been that way forever...Russia is losing more arty pieces due to Russian tactics, that and they have 4 times as much... Which has been my point Ukraines successes have been driven by NATO ability to supply Ukraine, and since it has been slowed Ukraine has been more on the defensive losing ground over most of Ukraine...granted Ukraine has seen some successes but now as much as Russia has... and while it might be measured in meters as you say, it all adds up....The war is not measured by how many Russian have been killed,or how much equipment it losses because Russia does not care period....Russia measures the conflict in ground captured and held....NATO measures it in Russians killed and equipment destroyed, which is stupid because Russia does not care about these metrics.. Ukraine has the knowledge , and will to win this conflict if only NATO would step up...and concentrated on winning this conflict instead of dragging it out, making Russia pay in men and equipment is great for NATO, but bad for Ukraine......that and preparing themselves in the process...well except Canada, who could give Ukraine a large chunk of it's military strength like our limited number of tanks, LAV6.0, TAPV drain the swamp here and purchase modern stuff later...make the other NATO countries match our donation, or look weak...those numbers would be able to influence the conflict in a positive way... Right now NATO is pretending, like we did in Afghanistan we got pretend support when enough soldiers had died, thats when our government would act.....you either have the will to win and do what it takes to accomplish that or you pack up and go home...right now Ukraine should pack up and go home, as the support from NATO IS A JOKE, ...That's my premise of why Ukraine should enter talks with Russia..Because Ukraine can not win this alone...not against Russia... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUI_Offender Posted June 27 Report Share Posted June 27 (edited) 22 hours ago, Army Guy said: Well tell me why is Russia not been kicked out of ukraine yet, why are they are a stalemate for the most part, are you saying NATO is giving it the old 100%...I'm saying bullshit...NATO could supply Ukraine with the equipment to kick Russia off the planet and yet it does just enough to keep the status quo, don't want to pi$$ of the bear... NATO is not going all out (100%) against Russia, considering Ukraine is not a NATO state, at least at the moment. If Russia attacked Poland or one of the Baltic countires that do happen to be NATO members, we would see the full wrath of NATO. However, Russia is intelligent to realise that it would be a losing battle to attack a NATO member (although if Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia were not NATO members, it is all but guaranteed Russia would have been testing them by now). NATO and others have certainly helped, but by going all-out, and hitting targets in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other outlying areas that would compromise the Russian offensive to a great degree, they risk the chance of China, India, or a more powerful country becoming involved in the conflict. China, although historically much closer with Russia, has remained neutral in the conflict, as it would not be in their best interest to become involved (it would adversely affect their relationship with the USA, in terms of trade and other issues). NATO does not care that much about upsetting Russia, as they have virtually ignored every threat Putin has made on escalating the conflict to a "nuclear" level, or the spread of false Russian propaganda. NATO is much more concerned about/supporting escalating the conflict to the point that China gets involved. Edited June 27 by DUI_Offender Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonbox Posted June 27 Report Share Posted June 27 15 hours ago, Army Guy said: Thats not my point, your claim is about NK ammo being to old, thats a myth, your claim about it being of inferior quality is right...that being said there is 4 times the amount of arty rounds falling from the sky, it does not matter if 25 % is duds becasue 75 % is still landing on Ukrainian troops... If Russia is firing 600,000 rounds per month, and 75% of it is landing on Ukrainian troops, there wouldn't be any Ukrainian troops left alive, would there? The certain, mathematical reality is that 95% of their rounds don't even scratch a Ukrainian soldier: 15 hours ago, Army Guy said: As for accuracy both sides are having issue with accuracy due to barrel wear...and not many spare barrels...it's not just a russian thing... Perhaps, but Russian accuracy was shit to start, so barrel-ware is going to affect them worse. More importantly, if they're firing at 7-10x the rate the Ukrainians are, so who's dealing with more barrel-ware? 15 hours ago, Army Guy said: Again not my point you said NATO and its production capacity was going to,leave Russia's and NK in the dust, thats a myth. NATO production capacity dwarfs Russian and NK's. North Korean factories don't operate at capacity because they are constantly lacking raw materials, and both nations are under critical components shortages on account of their being sanctioned and unable to make any of it on their own. You can probably appreciate that there's more to military economics than the number of artillery shells you can theoretically produce, right? Long-term, this is a question of economic scale. Russia's economy can be outmatched by Canada's. North Korea's can be matched by...Uganda. Those two countries can keep up with NATO in the longer term? That's what you really think? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Guy Posted June 27 Report Share Posted June 27 1 hour ago, Moonbox said: If Russia is firing 600,000 rounds per month, and 75% of it is landing on Ukrainian troops, there wouldn't be any Ukrainian troops left alive, would there? The certain, mathematical reality is that 95% of their rounds don't even scratch a Ukrainian soldier: Perhaps, but Russian accuracy was shit to start, so barrel-ware is going to affect them worse. More importantly, if they're firing at 7-10x the rate the Ukrainians are, so who's dealing with more barrel-ware? NATO production capacity dwarfs Russian and NK's. North Korean factories don't operate at capacity because they are constantly lacking raw materials, and both nations are under critical components shortages on account of their being sanctioned and unable to make any of it on their own. You can probably appreciate that there's more to military economics than the number of artillery shells you can theoretically produce, right? Long-term, this is a question of economic scale. Russia's economy can be outmatched by Canada's. North Korea's can be matched by...Uganda. Those two countries can keep up with NATO in the longer term? That's what you really think? The fact that 80% of all Ukrainian casualties are caused by Russia arty, rocket fire tells a much different story, Ukrainian soldiers are telling a much different story...Russian arty is deadly and plentiful... Barrel wear is a factor, when firing that much each day i won't lie to you, but you can compensate for all of these...not to mention call in corrections from the impact areas.........but casualty reports tell a much different story...Russian arty fire is effective and devastating for troops caught out in the open...troops in the open have no hope to outrun an arty strike...anyone with a radio can put rounds on target in less than 2 mins...even poorly trained ones...add to the fact that arty units are often using drones to spot targets, bringing fire on targets in less than a minute...I don't care who you are but if your on the receive end of any arty/ rocket barrage, your going to be talking to god and making some promises, NATO's production capacity does not dwarf anything...it's been on peacetime production for decades, and will take years to even match Russia and NK capacity as it sits right now... As for raw materials, they must be getting it from somewhere becasue western intel sources have quoted the fact that NK is producing arty ammo at full production rates...The numbers speak for themselves not sure why they do not pop out for you...Russia is producing 250,000 a month, us is producing maybe 50-60,000 rounds a month...and won't get to 100,000 k until late 2025...still 2 1/2 times short...not to mention what ever NK is producing...NATO weapons systems are way more complicated than the Russians, and DO NOT take as long to produce, just take a look at production rates for US javelin AT missile systems, not even close to keeping up with usage rates, same could be said for almost every US weapon system...production rates are no where near the capacity needed to sustain a high intensity fight...they are at peace time levels...US is changing that but it does not happen over night, it takes years to ramp up production of high tech equipment.. Yes i get it economics is a complicated subject, but todays numbers don't lie...Russia is out producing NATO in most categories of weapons, numbers don't lie....Russia also has an economy that can convert production much more rapidly than any western nation, and can gear up to war time production capacity in shorter time frames.......NATO is not going to war time production any time soon, even our CDS has called for it, along with many senior military officials of other countries...but most of NATO is like canada and will not react until war has been declared...now granted some NATO countries are already there. and still preparing...Sweden, Germany, norway, etc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Guy Posted Thursday at 07:43 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 07:43 PM 15 hours ago, DUI_Offender said: NATO is not going all out (100%) against Russia, considering Ukraine is not a NATO state, at least at the moment. If Russia attacked Poland or one of the Baltic countires that do happen to be NATO members, we would see the full wrath of NATO. However, Russia is intelligent to realise that it would be a losing battle to attack a NATO member (although if Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia were not NATO members, it is all but guaranteed Russia would have been testing them by now). NATO and others have certainly helped, but by going all-out, and hitting targets in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other outlying areas that would compromise the Russian offensive to a great degree, they risk the chance of China, India, or a more powerful country becoming involved in the conflict. China, although historically much closer with Russia, has remained neutral in the conflict, as it would not be in their best interest to become involved (it would adversely affect their relationship with the USA, in terms of trade and other issues). NATO does not care that much about upsetting Russia, as they have virtually ignored every threat Putin has made on escalating the conflict to a "nuclear" level, or the spread of false Russian propaganda. NATO is much more concerned about/supporting escalating the conflict to the point that China gets involved. Your misunderstanding what i'm saying...I'm not calling for NATO to send in ground troops...I'm talking about sending in more support than just arty a few air defense weapons...or emptying out the closet of all it's to old to fight shit, like the Leo I that were sent over in bulk...I'm talking about game changing weapon systems, more MLRS, aned Himars, more tanks more air defense systems...more IFV...not 20 or 30 at a time hundreds...NATO is spending more on their own restock than finishing this Ukraine fight...Production lines have orders for the next 10 years...for every weapon system you can think of... Right now Ukraine is not a priority for NATO, Nato is watching Russia being bled out by Ukraine with some help from NATO assistance...NATO is never going to go to war with Russia unless something real stupid happens Ukraine is not one of them...But don't tell me that they are busting their balls with support when they are not...they are not even trying... NATO shits itself everytime Russia puts out a threat...all you have to do is look at the measured response it has had to ukraine...sending tanks but only small qtys as it does not want to suffer Russia wrath...or provoke them...NK has just announced it will send troops into Ukraine...this is one of those moments where NATO ass will pucker, the US is also thinking about sending in contractors...we will see where all of this goes...Ukraine has done an outstanding job at keeping back russian conscripts...but we will see just how dedicated NK troops are to the cause.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUI_Offender Posted Friday at 12:42 AM Report Share Posted Friday at 12:42 AM (edited) 4 hours ago, Army Guy said: NATO shits itself everytime Russia puts out a threat...all you have to do is look at the measured response it has had to ukraine. For the life of me, I can't believe people still believe this. Putin has been threatening escalation every time the USA or NATO approves spending billions in military aid to Ukraine. During the Cold War, the USA won nearly every single proxy war with the Soviet Union, and since 1991, the Americans have only increased the gap in military strength. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has proven to the World how much of a paper tiger Russia really is. Yet a vocal minority of people still believe Russia is as strong or even stronger than the USA, UK, Germany, Poland, France, etc combined, and that NATO is terrified of Russia," . I honestly just don't get it. 4 hours ago, Army Guy said: ...NK has just announced it will send troops into Ukraine...this is one of those moments where NATO ass will pucker, the US is also thinking about sending in contractors...we will see where all of this goes...Ukraine has done an outstanding job at keeping back russian conscripts...but we will see just how dedicated NK troops are to the cause.... I can't wait to see this as well. I could use a good laugh, as the North Koreans are all killed off in a matter of days... Edited Friday at 12:50 AM by DUI_Offender Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonbox Posted Friday at 04:22 PM Report Share Posted Friday at 04:22 PM (edited) 20 hours ago, Army Guy said: The fact that 80% of all Ukrainian casualties are caused by Russia arty, rocket fire tells a much different story, Ukrainian soldiers are telling a much different story...Russian arty is deadly and plentiful... No, it really doesn't. We're doing simple math here. If Russia is firing 600,000 shells a month, as you say, and hitting Ukrainians 75% of the time as you suggest, then that's 450,000 casualties a month. The war would be over in a month or two if that were true, which it obviously isn't. They still hit stuff, and they still cause lots of casualties, but if we accept they're firing 600,000 shells per month (highly dubious), then they're not even hitting targets 5% of the time. 20 hours ago, Army Guy said: NATO's production capacity does not dwarf anything...it's been on peacetime production for decades, and will take years to even match Russia and NK capacity as it sits right now... NATO's economy (and therefore capacity to produce) outscales Russia and North Korea probably 50:1. The fact that surplus equipment and peacetime production has been enough to stall out and hold off Russian and North Korean war economies for 2 years tells you everything you need to know. Even a modest, real commitment to armament production would tip the scales. 2% of NATO's GDP towards the military would dwarf 50% of Russia's GDP towards theirs. North Korea would barely even factor into that equation. 20 hours ago, Army Guy said: As for raw materials, they must be getting it from somewhere becasue western intel sources have quoted the fact that NK is producing arty ammo at full production rates... No, this is what you're referring to: "While North Korea's arms factories operate at 30 percent capacity due to shortages of raw materials and power, certain factories are operating at full capacity, which primarily produce weapons and shells for Russia," Shin said in a meeting with reporters Monday. https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/06/103_369559.html All this is telling you is that North Korea has prioritized supporting Russia as much as they can. Edited Friday at 04:23 PM by Moonbox 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Guy Posted Friday at 06:44 PM Report Share Posted Friday at 06:44 PM 17 hours ago, DUI_Offender said: For the life of me, I can't believe people still believe this. Putin has been threatening escalation every time the USA or NATO approves spending billions in military aid to Ukraine. During the Cold War, the USA won nearly every single proxy war with the Soviet Union, and since 1991, the Americans have only increased the gap in military strength. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has proven to the World how much of a paper tiger Russia really is. Yet a vocal minority of people still believe Russia is as strong or even stronger than the USA, UK, Germany, Poland, France, etc combined, and that NATO is terrified of Russia," . I honestly just don't get it. I can't wait to see this as well. I could use a good laugh, as the North Koreans are all killed off in a matter of days... If what you say is true, why is NATO in panic mode and rearming, and in some cases as i pointed out have put their countries on a war footing with production of war materials, mass purchasing weapon systems, some have brought in conscription to boost military strengths other nations are thinking hard about the same idea ...those are not actions of a NATO that seem to think they could take on Russia with one arm tied behind their backs...Those are nations that are waking up, and finding their own military's are not so prepared as they thought....These ideas are being pushed by their military chiefs, That Ukraine has shown them that they are not prepared for any defense against any near peer enemy, Russia being one of them...Never underestimate your enemy...one of the key rules to conflict.. I did not say that Russia is stronger than NATO I have stated very clearly that currently Russia and NK are out producing NATO in all war materials, for many different reasons...I have provide clear reliable sources that back those points up..And like you i can't understand why you can't see that. Russia has an entire different way at looking at casualties than western forces do...and so far they don't seem to be at that point where they are concerned or changing tactics to achieve better results...so comparing losses is not a good metric for whos winning or losing, the fact that Russia is still holding or gaining ground is very telling.... I'm also stating that NATO is not as strong as you may think it is, many nations like Canada have been cashing in on the peace bonds hard, and while most are now seeing they have to spend funds on their military, it is no where to where those numbers where in the not so distance past...just look a German tank forces once had several thousand tanks now has no more than 300...the list goes on and on,,,Canada has 40 main battle tanks , and 32 training tanks it used to have well over 120 plus...Today production of main battle tanks is at a snail's pace, germany placed an order for just over 100 more not expected to be received until 2028, and they are made in Germany... NK troops will be a fresh face to the conflict, that being said these are fanatical troops , not your Russian conscripts so the results are not unpredictable right now. I personal don't see this happening, as NATO will see it as increased escalation and might introduce contractors, or even support troops in ukraine itself... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Guy Posted Friday at 07:05 PM Report Share Posted Friday at 07:05 PM 2 hours ago, Moonbox said: No, it really doesn't. We're doing simple math here. If Russia is firing 600,000 shells a month, as you say, and hitting Ukrainians 75% of the time as you suggest, then that's 450,000 casualties a month. The war would be over in a month or two if that were true, which it obviously isn't. They still hit stuff, and they still cause lots of casualties, but if we accept they're firing 600,000 shells per month (highly dubious), then they're not even hitting targets 5% of the time. NATO's economy (and therefore capacity to produce) outscales Russia and North Korea probably 50:1. The fact that surplus equipment and peacetime production has been enough to stall out and hold off Russian and North Korean war economies for 2 years tells you everything you need to know. Even a modest, real commitment to armament production would tip the scales. 2% of NATO's GDP towards the military would dwarf 50% of Russia's GDP towards theirs. North Korea would barely even factor into that equation. No, this is what you're referring to: "While North Korea's arms factories operate at 30 percent capacity due to shortages of raw materials and power, certain factories are operating at full capacity, which primarily produce weapons and shells for Russia," Shin said in a meeting with reporters Monday. https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/06/103_369559.html All this is telling you is that North Korea has prioritized supporting Russia as much as they can. Sorry moonbox it does not work that way, Arty can be on target and not cause any casualties, That's what trench's and fox holes are for, arty kills those above ground, it takes a direct hit or very close round kill or wound anyone in a trench....but sooner or later everyone has to go above ground that's when the start getting killed...A better comparison in Vietnam it took one million machine guns rounds to get one hit one soldier, one time....Arty is the king of the battle field, it kills the most of any weapon system... You would have a point if NATO economy moved into war capacity, but it is not...most are producing military materials during a 8 hour work day, 5 days a week ...there is not rush....so while they have the potential to out produce Russia that's not the case right now, and won't be any time soon...NATO increases to production are happening at a snail paces, and for now and the near future, Russia with the help of NK are out producing NATO in war materials... Thats the key to your statement, stall out or hold russian advances to a minimum...NATO is not very concerned with winning this war, or it would have provided overwhelming support allowing Ukrainian forces to throw Russia out of Ukraine...NATO has no plans on doing that...now or in the future...as it does not want to risk escalating this into a bigger conflict....on the Ukrainian front they are dying in large numbers, some units have already had 200 % turn over rate, there are NO ONE left from the original unit from the start of the war...Everyday Ukraine begs nato for more equipment, while it's soldiers pay the price of NATO dicking around and politics which is my entire point here...Ukraine should at least sit down with Russia and see what both sides have to offer...this continued death by a thousand cuts by NATO with holding support or limiting it for stupid reasons is unacceptable.... No it would tell me that Russia is providing those raw materials to help itself in production..where else would they be getting those raw materials ...maybe even China...but they are coming from somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
User Posted Friday at 09:02 PM Report Share Posted Friday at 09:02 PM 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: Sorry moonbox it does not work that way, Arty can be on target and not cause any casualties Except, you are talking about the effectiveness of their artillery in causing casualties. The fact that it is not causing any casualties is exactly the point being made by Moonbox here, that it doesn't really matter if Russia is firing 1 Million shells a day or not... if they are not really achieving much more. The US is pushing to get to 100K artillery shells in 2025 and we are on pace for 80K by the end of the year. If your argument is lets do more, I am with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Guy Posted Friday at 10:07 PM Report Share Posted Friday at 10:07 PM 13 minutes ago, User said: Except, you are talking about the effectiveness of their artillery in causing casualties. The fact that it is not causing any casualties is exactly the point being made by Moonbox here, that it doesn't really matter if Russia is firing 1 Million shells a day or not... if they are not really achieving much more. The US is pushing to get to 100K artillery shells in 2025 and we are on pace for 80K by the end of the year. If your argument is lets do more, I am with you. Ukraine is reporting that 80 % of its casualties is from arty or rocket fire... it can also be effective in many other ways, make the enemy second guess crossing open ground, or for that matter any ground...keep them in their trenches, pined down they are not very effective when they're at the bottom of their trench...This goes for both sides, which is why the Russians are not advancing or taking lots of ground in one attack, arty is breaking those attacks up...Russian and ukraine attacks... 80 % percent of all the casualties is effective fire in my books, now i've been under occasional mortar/ rocket fire and i don't care to repeat the experience. I've also seen the effects of a couple dozens 155 mm rounds hit an enemy position.....i was glad it was them and not me....and still people managed to live through it...i could not imagine what 20,000 rounds a day would be like, not only physically but mentally as well... Yes , the US is pushing some of it's manufacturers to upgrade their production,But it is also pushing other nations manufacture with US tax dollars... Again why is it the US job to make this happen.... to follow suit as their own government won't do it....Canada is one of them.... but most of NATO is not following suit, Just read an article about a swedish company that produces NLAWs anti tank systems , and they only work 5 days a week and 7/1/2 hours a day...but have orders listed out until 2027...many other manufactures are like this including German tank plants they also have standing orders out until 2028, and are working the same hours as the sweds...no one is in a hurry... Not only is NATO suppose to be the prime supplier for Ukraine , but it seems to be putting arming themselves a priority...the optics for me is this Ukraine is not NATO priority, it is feeding them only enough to stay afloat....while really trying to to rearm themselves, why is that, Mother Russia is very concerning to them. it keeps there generals up at night.....more so than ukraine anyways... My augment is got 2 points, Yes we all need to due more, or at least by honest with Ukraine and tell them this is as far as we can support you...which as everyone already knows as of now is stalemate at best...Ukraine is fighting for their very lives we can at least be honest with them... The rest of NATO should be atleast matching what the US is putting into this effort...and NATO should be asking why the F*ck not...we after all have the economies to do so, as it was explained to me here, but not the will to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonbox Posted Saturday at 04:02 AM Report Share Posted Saturday at 04:02 AM 51 minutes ago, Army Guy said: Sorry moonbox it does not work that way, Arty can be on target and not cause any casualties, That's what trench's and fox holes are for, arty kills those above ground, it takes a direct hit or very close round kill or wound anyone in a trench....but sooner or later everyone has to go above ground that's when the start getting killed...Arty is the king of the battle field, it kills the most of any weapon system... Sorry but that's not what you said. You said 75% of it was landing on Ukrainian troops, which obviously isn't true. Whether it's "on target" or not is probably a matter of perspective, given that Russia seems to be spraying and praying more than anything. "On target" for them probably means anything within a couple of miles. 🤣 Artillery may be king, but there's obviously a lot more to it than number of shells fired, else Russia wouldn't constantly be losing artillery duels, whining about their lack of artillery radar systems, and suffering 2:1 casualty ratios, correct? 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: You would have a point if NATO economy moved into war capacity, but it is not...most are producing military materials during a 8 hour work day, 5 days a week ...there is not rush....so while they have the potential to out produce Russia that's not the case right now, and won't be any time soon...NATO increases to production are happening at a snail paces, and for now and the near future, Russia with the help of NK are out producing NATO in war materials... NATO doesn't need a war economy to outproduce Russia and North Korea. The US's peacetime military budget alone is bigger than Russia and North Korea's wartime economies combined. There is literally no contest there. A wartime economy is also something that's hard to sustain, and requires massive deficit and reserve spending. Russia and North Korea may be outproducing artillery shells, but this is obviously not a war-ending advantage. Producing 20,000 shells for an artillery unit doesn't count for much if your artillery radar gets knocked out by HIMARs, your shells trajectories are being tracked by enemy radar, and you take accurate return fire from out of your range, does it? 4 hours ago, Army Guy said: I have stated very clearly that currently Russia and NK are out producing NATO in all war materials, for many different reasons...I have provide clear reliable sources that back those points up.. You haven't though. You've shown that their making more artillery shells. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Army Guy Posted Sunday at 03:11 AM Report Share Posted Sunday at 03:11 AM 22 hours ago, Moonbox said: Sorry but that's not what you said. You said 75% of it was landing on Ukrainian troops, which obviously isn't true. Whether it's "on target" or not is probably a matter of perspective, given that Russia seems to be spraying and praying more than anything. "On target" for them probably means anything within a couple of miles. 🤣 Artillery may be king, but there's obviously a lot more to it than number of shells fired, else Russia wouldn't constantly be losing artillery duels, whining about their lack of artillery radar systems, and suffering 2:1 casualty ratios, correct? NATO doesn't need a war economy to outproduce Russia and North Korea. The US's peacetime military budget alone is bigger than Russia and North Korea's wartime economies combined. There is literally no contest there. A wartime economy is also something that's hard to sustain, and requires massive deficit and reserve spending. Russia and North Korea may be outproducing artillery shells, but this is obviously not a war-ending advantage. Producing 20,000 shells for an artillery unit doesn't count for much if your artillery radar gets knocked out by HIMARs, your shells trajectories are being tracked by enemy radar, and you take accurate return fire from out of your range, does it? You haven't though. You've shown that their making more artillery shells. Look Ukraine is saying 80 % of its overall casualties are caused by Russia arty...meaning it is pretty effective..And i doubt Russian accuracy levels are as bad as you have predicted,they may not be at american standards, but as the Ukraines report it is very effective...... Russia has ukraine severely outnumbered in number of gun systems fielded, so yes their losses are going to be higher, but lets not forget Ukraine is also losing gun systems that have as of yet been replaced...while Russia is still producing and resupplying's it's guns in to the conflict...Counter bat radars are actually not that complicated and available at most arty units. hence why they need to shoot and move "I've already said Russian tactics are not all that good," when it comes to their conscripts...Hence why they loss more men and equipment, "which means nothing in Russian metrics...For Ukraine to come out on top on say arty losses it would have to kill more close to 4 to 1. while for everyone that ukraine losses is gone until NATO agrees to resupply them, which is not on the table right now... https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/25/infographic-military-capabilities-of-russia-and-ukraine-interactive Your right US outspends everyone on the planet, but the US is supporting the entire globe conflicts not just Ukraines, Israel's , houthis , wars in syria, sudan the list goes... they are into almost every conflict active or inactive, like Korea for instance...So your figures would have to be adjusted for all of these as well, on top of The US own spending on arms and equipment for the military in general...which eats most of that budget...that could be said for most NATO countries... The lesson here is the US, lets include all of NATO, is not producing war materials fast enough, the fact it has been holding Ukraine back for the most part due to lack of support... Lack of arty rounds mean insufficient quantities for offensive ops and barely enough for defensive ops... Ukraine is forces to pick and choose it's battles or attacks, Russia is supporting the entire front and it shows with daily advances...in most areas...Arty is a game changer and is making a huge difference in areas where Ukrainian advances have also stalled out... Everyone's shells are being tracked, most arty units have counter bat radars, Ukraine has powerful counter bat capabilities, with multiply sources to fire back such as arty and rocket... as do the russians which would account for ukrainians losses..just take a look at how many M777 they have lost to date...more than 1/3 and while those numbers at not huge they have or will not be receiving any more...while Russian arty is being replaced daily.. Russia production lines are operating at full production rates for T-80 tanks, SPA, air defense units, small arms, and ammo and many other combat items. it is also pulling old tanks out of storage and putting them into service old T-72, T-64 and 62... NATO production lines are going to replace equipment they have already given Ukraine, with exception of ammo and some weapon systems, such as air defense missiles, arty ammo, small arms ammo, and a few other vehicles like Canada armored cars..none of the new stuff is going to ukraine, it might offend mother Russia... The stuff they are begging for, more tanks, IFV's , more arty, more Himar missiles with longer range...more air defence systems, more anti tank systems, jets, and 1/2 of that is not being supplied or even being talked about...IF NATO was out producing Russia and NK most of these items would be crossed off the list...the fact Ukraine is begging for them is telling...the fact Ukraine has almost stopped making large gains on the ground is telling, Ukraine is telling the globe, the lack of military material is holding them back, is telling... So it does really matter that the US outspends everyone, or NATO outspends everyone, or can out produce two countries, the fact is they are not doing it... And without more NATO support Russia will continue to drain the swamp, and to be honest i don't see that happening...and while NATO is dithering Ukrainian men and women are paying the price...which they can not afford to do for long term...the west always does things half ass...we halved ass Afghanistan, Iraq, libya, the rest of the middle east...why would ukraine be any different...Thats why they should sit down and discuss with Russia how to end all of this...Because NATO is afraid of upsetting the Russias, afraid they will do something stupid...thats why they are holding back... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonbox Posted Sunday at 09:48 PM Report Share Posted Sunday at 09:48 PM 14 hours ago, Army Guy said: Look Ukraine is saying 80 % of its overall casualties are caused by Russia arty...meaning it is pretty effective. No, because 80% of Russia's casualties are caused by Ukrainian artillery, and Ukraine is firing less than 20% the amount of shells, but causing double the casualties. What does that math tell you? I've already brought this up, but you just sort of talk past me and repeat the same points in different ways... 18 hours ago, Army Guy said: Counter bat radars are actually not that complicated and available at most arty units. Not for the Russians. They lost them in droves last summer as they're apparently easy to locate, they have minimal capability to replace the systems because of sanctions, and they continue to lose them regularly. 14 hours ago, Army Guy said: The lesson here is the US, lets include all of NATO, is not producing war materials fast enough, the fact it has been holding Ukraine back for the most part due to lack of support. Not disagreeing, but how do you figure that situation is going to improve? Does arguing unwittingly on Putin's behalf about how hopeless the Ukrainian situation is, despite all evidence to the contrary, somehow help? I really don't get what you're trying to do here, and how you're failing to see that the most important battle for Putin is winning the hearts and minds of people like you by repeating the same points over and over until it's taken for granted. 18 hours ago, Army Guy said: IF NATO was out producing Russia and NK most of these items would be crossed off the list...the fact Ukraine is begging for them is telling...the fact Ukraine has almost stopped making large gains on the ground is telling, Ukraine is telling the globe, the lack of military material is holding them back, is telling... So it does really matter that the US outspends everyone, or NATO outspends everyone, or can out produce two countries, the fact is they are not doing it... This is all bad logic - all of it. Ukraine is "begging" for equipment because they're not getting what they're asking for, and what they need. They're lack of gains on the ground are matched by Russia's, who despite the overwhelming and hopeless advantage they apparently have, still aren't moving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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