Are Nfld and Quebec Sustainable?

[NAME REMOVED]

28 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

They have absolutely zero interest and they've said so very bluntly and publicly. 

Why would they? What would they gain? 

 

OIL

[herbie]

13 hours ago, DUI_Offender said:

I'm not an Albertan.

Having lived through the Quebec Separatist movement, I think Alberta has more of a case for breaking off from Canada.

So Quebec has a distinct language, history, relion and culture but Alberta has a better case? A province created by Ottawa with language and culture indistinguishable from the provinces on either side?

No, their separatists are solely fixated on 'why should we share', 'we could have more money if'? A few of the wealthiest province there is, who continued to gripe even if half their MPs were in a Conservative govt cabinet? Such lofty ideals to found a country on, not!
If they managed to they could have a snake on their flag and a motto of "For a few dollars more".

[CdnFox]

7 hours ago, DUI_Offender said:

OIL

Not only can they buy the oil whenver they want at below market rates right now, but they just shut down a pipeline that would have given them more access to oil. 

Maybe 40 years ago but right now the US produces more oil than it uses and could increase production, and as noted they get our oil already at a discount. 

They coudln't give a flying eff about our oil.  They've got it already if they want it and right now they don't even want any more than they already get. If anything the last thing the oil producers in the states wants is some other new 'state' that gets to play by the same rules they do. 

So EFF no they wouldn't take alberta for the oil, which they already mostly own. 

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, herbie said:

So Quebec has a distinct language, history, relion and culture but Alberta has a better case? A province created by Ottawa with language and culture indistinguishable from the provinces on either side?

No, their separatists are solely fixated on 'why should we share', 'we could have more money if'? A few of the wealthiest province there is, who continued to gripe even if half their MPs were in a Conservative govt cabinet? Such lofty ideals to found a country on, not!
If they managed to they could have a snake on their flag and a motto of "For a few dollars more".

They do actually have a better case.  All the western provinces were severely repressed and deliberately had development restricted to benefit the east and that was never compensated for.  It was a  matter of open policy till the end of ww1 and continued frequently after. The NEP was basically the rape of alberta resources to buy votes in quebec as noted in the recorded records of several trudeau ministers from the day. 

Now frankly if either wants to i think they should be allowed to go.  But no backsies. You go you go, we're not here to be your friends anymore and we'll look out for Canada's interests. 

But while quebec would not be viable on it's own at it's current standard of living, alberta REALLY wouldn't. Western canada would but not any one province. 

[NAME REMOVED]

24 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

 

But while quebec would not be viable on it's own at it's current standard of living, alberta REALLY wouldn't. Western canada would but not any one province. 

Alberta would be in far better position to succeed as a separate entity compared to Quebec. Quebec is a have-not province that has received billions in transfer payments for decades. Alberta has always been forced to provide transfer payments to Quebec. How is Quebec going to maintain their standard of living without the generous annual transfer payments they receive from BC, Alberta, and Ontario? 

[CdnFox]

30 minutes ago, DUI_Offender said:

Alberta would be in far better position to succeed as a separate entity compared to Quebec.

In the very short term that would likely be true. However that would not stand the test of time. Without cooperation from the rest of Canada which it wouldn't likely get moving oil to market would be very difficult. And if you bring up the admiralty law I will slap you. That has never been enforced anywhere, it's way too easy to work around. Also, the indications are that within the next 20 years oil usage will begin to decrease and that begins a long term problem for Alberta. Alberta already suffers from boom and bust.   One only has to look at 2014 to see that oil's not enough.

Additionally, while Alberta doesn't need as much support as quebec, It actually does benefit quite a bit from its relationship with Canada. A lot of Companies are headquartered there for tax purposes that wouldn't be if it wasn't part of Canada. It benefits massively from the fact that it's retirees can move to places like British Columbia and then live off of their health care system, and that goes away if it's a separate country. 

And at the end of the day it's landlocked. That presents some serious issues. And it simply doesn't have the population density to have an internal economy that was thriving. Not to mention that first nations issues would almost certainly become even more problematic

Overtime it would not do as well out of confederation as it does in confederation by itself or come nearly as close.  Add some of the other provinces and things get better. But you'd need almost all of them. 

 

[herbie]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

Now frankly if either wants to i think they should be allowed to go.

Unfortunately I think the country should have the determination like the USA to crush them. Like revoke their provincial status, dissolve their legislature and revert to territorial status.
That should make Alberta separatists happy they'd have no provincial income tax, way more money in their greedy hands and no need to worry their tortured wee minds about politics ever again.

Like I said, no language, culture or religion to distinguish themselves. BTW I've come to believe that those may be the usual but are actually the worst reasons to found a country. Look at Iran, Afghanistan, Israel as examples.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, herbie said:

Unfortunately I think the country should have the determination like the USA to crush them. Like revoke their provincial status, dissolve their legislature and revert to territorial status.
That should make Alberta separatists happy they'd have no provincial income tax, way more money in their greedy hands and no need to worry their tortured wee minds about politics ever again.

 

Our federal government can't even cope with the Palestinian protesters right now, and was nearly brought to its knees by a bunch of guys with bouncy castles. I think civil war might be a little bit outside their wheelhouse just at the moment    I think it would end more like the war of independence than the civil war. (maybe there could be a boston beer party? ) 

I think in any kind of actual physical confrontation the other western provinces would get involved and it would get very very messy very quickly.  And precedence has already been set by allowing quebec to have it's referendums.  If quebec or alberta want to go then they'll be able to do so i think. 

But  then there's the question of the first nations, who may vote to take their land back to canada or form  their own gov't.  If alberta accepts that it can leave canada, then they have to accept that other groups may choose to leave alberta. 

Quote

Like I said, no language, culture or religion to distinguish themselves. BTW I've come to believe that those may be the usual but are actually the worst reasons to found a country. Look at Iran, Afghanistan, Israel as examples.

So.... they can go then?   

there's no real chance of it. Some politicians may exploit the lack of knowledge that some people have but any real examination would show very quickly that leaving would have a bad result unless other provinces were going with them. There's simply isn't the economic diversity, the population and market, access to ports and shipping etc for any one province to make it on their own but if you had all four western provinces it would be viable. But even then only just

[NAME REMOVED]

Albertans will never leave Canada. If it was ever put to a vote, separation would be lucky to receive 30% of the total outcome.

[herbie]

If that.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, DUI_Offender said:

Albertans will never leave Canada. If it was ever put to a vote, separation would be lucky to receive 30% of the total outcome.

Never is a long time. But I think it's safe to say that they probably wouldn't alone. The number is just aren't there. I think that there would be more interest if a couple of the other provinces were looking at leaving like Saskatchewan or better yet British Columbia. Fun fact, just before harper got elected pulling for separation in British Columbia was getting surprisingly close to 50%

[impartialobserver]

interesting topic. From what I have read.. it seems strange for Newfoundland to want to become an independent nation. 

[CdnFox]

25 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

interesting topic. From what I have read.. it seems strange for Newfoundland to want to become an independent nation. 

I don't think they would. While they were definitely the latest to sign on to confederation the fact is I think they know they would not do well outside of Canada. And there's nothing really that they're disgruntled with as far as interference goes. They used to be a little concerned about fisheries but the fisheries have collapsed so it's not really an issue anymore

[impartialobserver]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

I don't think they would. While they were definitely the latest to sign on to confederation the fact is I think they know they would not do well outside of Canada. And there's nothing really that they're disgruntled with as far as interference goes. They used to be a little concerned about fisheries but the fisheries have collapsed so it's not really an issue anymore

Hoping to one day visit Labrador, Newfoundland, and New Brunswick. Mainly because it seems to be the polar opposite of where I have always lived.. the high desert of Southern Idaho/Eastern Oregon/Nevada. 

Edited June 18, 2024 by impartialobserver

[herbie]

Do visit there. It is absolutely beautiful and has the friendliest people in the whole country. I grew up on the opposite coast of Canada and Nfld is totally familiar and completely different at the same time.
rightly coloured homes and old buildings vs vinyl and cement sodden with green slime yet dodging moose on the highway just like home.

[SpankyMcFarland]

NL just got a lot more sustainable if this deal with Quebec gets ratified. ‘People are saying’  it’s the best day for the province since Confederation. Finally, the wealth of the Churchill River will be shared by the two provinces in an equitable manner and Newfoundlanders won’t risk apoplexy discussing it. The next megaproject on the river will probably be in the hands of Quebec companies rather than outsiders whose ignorance of local conditions was cruelly exposed in the Muskrat boondoggle. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/10917828/quebec-newfoundland-labrador-churchill-falls-deal-politics/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/churchill-falls-new-deal-economics-1.7410094
 

 

Edited December 15, 2024 by SpankyMcFarland

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 6/18/2024 at 8:27 PM, impartialobserver said:

Hoping to one day visit Labrador, Newfoundland, and New Brunswick. Mainly because it seems to be the polar opposite of where I have always lived.. the high desert of Southern Idaho/Eastern Oregon/Nevada. 

Hangovers are a lot less painful in NL, at least per unit of alcohol consumed. Low humidity and high altitude are a toxic combination as I found to my cost in Calgary. 

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

NL just got a lot more sustainable if this deal with Quebec gets ratified. ‘People are saying’  it’s the best day for the province since Confederation. Finally, the wealth of the Churchill River will be shared by the two provinces in an equitable manner and Newfoundlanders won’t risk apoplexy discussing it. The next megaproject on the river will probably be in the hands of Quebec companies rather than outsiders whose ignorance of local conditions was cruelly exposed in the Muskrat boondoggle. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/10917828/quebec-newfoundland-labrador-churchill-falls-deal-politics/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/churchill-falls-new-deal-economics-1.7410094
 

 

Yes absolutely that is a huge deal. I mean Quebec is still totally ripping them off, it's not really equitable, and it doesn't address the decades of utter theft prior to this, but it is significantly less egregious than it was and newfoundland will benefit substantially.  It's still very good for quebec, so everyone should be ok with it 

[SpankyMcFarland]

10 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Yes absolutely that is a huge deal. I mean Quebec is still totally ripping them off, it's not really equitable, and it doesn't address the decades of utter theft prior to this, but it is significantly less egregious than it was and newfoundland will benefit substantially.  It's still very good for quebec, so everyone should be ok with it 

I think it’s the difference between NL surviving as a province or not. The cynic in me thought Quebec would let NL run into insolvency and get a fire sale deal for the next century after that. Before this deal is formally ratified I fear there will be some voices in Quebec who will suggest just that very move. Given that the federal givernment has remained studiously neutral for the last fifty years, I can’t see NL getting a better deal than this. 

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I think it’s the difference between NL surviving as a province or not.

Quite possibly true. While they would have gotten whatever they wanted in 15 ish years, to get something closer to fair now is massive.  And they deserve it. 

3 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

. Before this deal is formally ratified I fear there will be some voices in Quebec who will suggest just that very move

I don't doubt it but they have to realize the feds might well step in for such a case and prop things up.  The deal with Quebec ends entirely in a fairly short time and quebec has become dependent heavily on the money they make selling that power. If the feds propped things up till the deal was over....  quebec would likely get nothing. Newfoundland would likely look to create it's own transmission ties to the states and sell direct and quebec would be mega hooped. 

Now they'll at least still make good profits and can look at working with newfoundland to put in new projects down the road. 

3 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Given that the federal givernment has remained studiously neutral for the last fifty years, I can’t see NL getting a better deal than this. 

No, and if it's a deal it's negotiated between two provinces they shouldn't be getting involved anyway. Stepping up to see that a province doesn't go under is one thing, but trying to sort out a deal between two provinces for resources that are provincially controlled would be overreach.

[SpankyMcFarland]

5 hours ago, CdnFox said:

No, and if it's a deal it's negotiated between two provinces they shouldn't be getting involved anyway.

In general that is true but the Churchill Falls negotiation involved one of the dominant Laurentian provinces and a colony effectively abandoned by Britain trying desperately to make ends meet. It was like doing a deal with Mauritania. The power differential was absolutely colossal. 

Anyway, let’s hope such morbid ruminations are behind us and have not is truly no more rather than a bizarre consequence of the damnable equalization formula. 

 

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

In general that is true but the Churchill Falls negotiation involved one of the dominant Laurentian provinces and a colony effectively abandoned by Britain trying desperately to make ends meet. It was like doing a deal with Mauritania. The power differential was absolutely colossal. 

Anyway, let’s hope such morbid ruminations are behind us and have not is truly no more rather than a bizarre consequence of the damnable equalization formula. 

 

For sure. You've been land deserves every opportunity to profit from its hard work and resources, same as any province, and that has been denied to them up till now. I show genuinely hope that this goes through and that their future improves as a result. Perhaps it will be the beginning of a long growth pass for them, success tends to breed success and New Opportunities may appear as a result

[August1991]

On 12/14/2024 at 9:06 PM, SpankyMcFarland said:

NL just got a lot more sustainable if this deal with Quebec gets ratified. ‘People are saying’  it’s the best day for the province since Confederation. Finally, the wealth of the Churchill River will be shared by the two provinces in an equitable manner....

 

Too many people in Newfoundland and Quebec misunderstand wealth, value.

In their mind, they are rich because they have lots of gold - but it is faraway, on the Moon.

The value is bringing the gold to market.

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 12/23/2024 at 4:52 AM, August1991 said:

Too many people in Newfoundland and Quebec misunderstand wealth, value.

In their mind, they are rich because they have lots of gold - but it is faraway, on the Moon.

The value is bringing the gold to market.

 

Could you elaborate on that? The power lines to the Churchill River are already in place via both Quebec and Nova Scotia. 

[herbie]

Perhaps we should sell provinces that aren't "sustainable" to the USA? Quebec, the Atlantics , Sask and the Territories. Then we could all be happy that govt was run like a 'real' business.