Canada unsustainable (reckless?) immigration rate driven by the risk of the pension system bust?

[myata]

I cannot recall the number but it's known that to sustain a pension system there's a magic number, the rate of the active workers to the population on pension, W / P. In Canada, with its very generous system for public bureaucrats the effective pension population would be higher than that of regular workers, perhaps not by a small factors.

Again, well known demographics situation may impact the key ratio significantly or even drastically, and with it, the integrity of the public pension system itself. The previous Conservative government made some moves in this area, but they were cancelled by Trudeau.

As always, there are two ways to approach such a challenge: the smart, innovation way; and the traditional, do it as our grand grands would way. In Canada it has to be the latter one, obviously.

So we're bringing massive numbers from the third world (where else?) to boost the workers number W; except there are some obvious caveats:

- some of the arrivals are above the pension age and so go straight to increase the pension-receiving population: the opposite effect.

- others are poorly adapted (language, education, work experience) and go to receive some form of assistance while producing zero pension contributions: the opposite effect.

- yet others go to work minimal wage works, contribute very little to the effective workers population, while still receiving benefits: the opposite net effect.

And now look, instead of one problem we have created two: not only the resulting additional worker population has to contribute some positive net income to the pension fund for the current population; but it should also provide additional input for the part of the arrival population that is receiving some form of support.

Question: is it working? Do we know, are there solid numbers? Or, are we only delaying the inevitable?

And if the pension system goes bust, what part of the economy would it take with it? What would the country look like if / when it happens?

[QuebecOverCanada]

Our pension system is not only sustainable but is also extremely robust, even if the number of pensioners went up drastically.

The Quebec government for example will have a little less than a trillion dollars left even after all the baby boomers rest in peace. They considered bringing up the retirement age to 62 instead of 60 and faced backlash because it was deemed unnecessary.

[QuebecOverCanada]

Among the proposals under study this year, one would raise the minimum age required to start receiving the pension to 62 years. Another would increase this age to 65 years. Yet another would increase the penalty faced by those who start receiving their pension before age 65. In all cases, the changes would be implemented gradually, over a period of 7 to 22 years. The objective of Retraite Québec is clear: to delay the moment when Quebecers begin to receive their pension. We will soon know if it is also that of the government.

Unlike what is happening in France, the objective here is not to put a deficit regime back on track. On the contrary, the most recent actuarial evaluation of the plan indicates that there is no reason to worry: there will be enough money to pay all the pensions planned over the next 50 years, and this, without having to increase the current contribution rate. At the rate things are going, the basic regime reserve could even exceed $800 billion… in 2071.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1951000/hugo-lavallee-regime-rentes-quebec-retraite-consultations

[myata]

Interesting. I'd like to see more of these numbers, Canada wide. If not that, then what other cause could it be?

Edited November 22, 2023 by myata

[I am Groot]

The CPP is self-funded. You pay into it. That money is invested. And then you collect when you retire. The real problem is the unfunded pension plans like the GIS and OAS. These come straight out of yearly budgets, and increase as the numbers of people taking them increases. You pay nothing into them. Even if you've never had a job and never paid a penny of income tax you can still get them. Immigrants who are sponsored over and never work can start collecting them ten years later. The amount the government pays increases every year.

They ought to be reformed and the age at which you can collect raised, but don't expect either under Trudeau.  Like, once you reach a certain income level the government starts to claw back these benefits. For the OAS it's $80k. Why is it so freaking high!? That's bloody ridiculous! At least drop it down to $40k-$50k!

Edit. Coincidentally, this is in the Globe and Mail today.

Globe editorial: Subsidies to rich seniors make no sense - The Globe and Mail

Edited November 24, 2023 by I am Groot

[blackbird]

The liberal left (Liberals, Green, and NDP) who support abortion are part of the problem because they support the killing of unborn babies.  There are about 90 or 100 thousand babies aborted per year in Canada.  This means a million less people born in Canada in a ten year period.

This means that many people less to contribute to and support the pension system.  People think this is solved by immigration, but it doesn't work that well because when people are born in Canada and grow up here, they will contribute to the pension plan all through their life and contribute to society on a natural time scale from youth to old age.  Immigrants are brought in at different ages and do not replace the smooth predictable aging process of people born in Canada.  So it does create problems and make the future of the pension system more unpredictable.  This also makes the health care system more difficult to manage and more unpredictable.

Edited November 24, 2023 by blackbird