Trudeau Getting OBLITERATED In New Poll!

[Canadian_Cavalier]

This is arguably the biggest CPC lead poll in over a decade. CPC at 42%, LPC 22% and NDP 17%.

If it's true, it would mean well over 200 blue seats.

FYI: Frank Graves, the man behind the pollster EKOS, is extremely pro-liberal if you look through his comments, likes and retweets.

[CdnFox]

Frank greves was quoted as saying "he would do whatever it takes to make sure Polievre never becomes prime minister'.  He said that publicly.

This poll is SO favorable that i'm inclinded to believe Frank is putting his finger on the scale a little . There's several reasons why he would want the CPC to appear to be doing better than they are

1 - this will be more pressure on trudeau to step down. Many liberal supporters believe that they'd have a better chance with another leader and maybe defeat PP.

2 - there are still people who are leery of PP and this might make them sit up and donate ot the libs (who desperately need it)

3 - If he reaches super high 'heights' early then greaves can say he's "Sliding" if he falls back to ONLY 40 percent.

 

We'll see what the other pollsters come out with in the next few weeks - especailly seeing as trudeau just went into full distraction mode with the india thing AND all his fake "new home" announcements and going into "solutions mode".   IF other pollsters show similar results ....  this would be a devastating loss for the libs AND a MAJOR loss for the ndp. 

[Canadian_Cavalier]

1 minute ago, CdnFox said:

Frank greves was quoted as saying "he would do whatever it takes to make sure Polievre never becomes prime minister'.  He said that publicly.

This poll is SO favorable that i'm inclinded to believe Frank is putting his finger on the scale a little . There's several reasons why he would want the CPC to appear to be doing better than they are

1 - this will be more pressure on trudeau to step down. Many liberal supporters believe that they'd have a better chance with another leader and maybe defeat PP.

2 - there are still people who are leery of PP and this might make them sit up and donate ot the libs (who desperately need it)

3 - If he reaches super high 'heights' early then greaves can say he's "Sliding" if he falls back to ONLY 40 percent.

 

We'll see what the other pollsters come out with in the next few weeks - especailly seeing as trudeau just went into full distraction mode with the india thing AND all his fake "new home" announcements and going into "solutions mode".   IF other pollsters show similar results ....  this would be a devastating loss for the libs AND a MAJOR loss for the ndp. 

That all makes sense. It could also be a way to fearmonger NDP voters on to their side as well.

The most likely scenario is that he subsequently releases a poll where the CPC is doing much worse, so he can say "Ha! Look guys, they're losing support!"

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Canadian_Cavalier said:

That all makes sense. It could also be a way to fearmonger NDP voters on to their side as well.

The most likely scenario is that he subsequently releases a poll where the CPC is doing much worse, so he can say "Ha! Look guys, they're losing support!"

That's possible but honestly the most likely scenario is that he's trying to put pressure on trudeau to step down.

I don't think a new leader could win for the libs  - but with a little luck they MIGHT get enough of a bounce to hold the cpc to a minority and who knows, they MIGHT just squeak out a minority themselves if they have a really engaging leadership campaign etc.

The problem is they're almost out of time. It takes about 9 months to do a leadership run - the conservatives cut a few corners last time and they still took 8 months.  Sometimes it can run more like 10 if there's internal disareement as to the rules (the rules are made up fresh each time).

And then the new leader has to have time to get rid of the old leaders flunies in key positions and do a bunch of research to come up with a new winning strategy and prepare a campaign -that takes at LEAST a year and 2 is better.  And THIS leader will have to be prime minister and actually run the country during that time which puts them under the mircoscope day one - that's not good.

So - the election is in fall 2025 - now less than 2 years away before it starts. If trudeau steps down RIGHT NOW - there's BARELY enough time to elect a leader and go into the next campaign.  So right now is when they need to be pressuring the hell out of him to step down, and there's been tonnes of articles in liberal friendly papers saying he should.

I think this might be the latest installment of that.  I mean - if that was how it looked on voting day, that would be a nightmare scenario of epic proportions for the libs, and given voter concentrations they might not even be official opposition.

[Canadian_Cavalier]

1 minute ago, CdnFox said:

That's possible but honestly the most likely scenario is that he's trying to put pressure on trudeau to step down.

Someone like Graves would want Trudeau for as long as possible because face it - the post-2013 LPC is based around his image. Without it, there will be plenty of division and infighting.

[CdnFox]

10 minutes ago, Canadian_Cavalier said:

Someone like Graves would want Trudeau for as long as possible because face it - the post-2013 LPC is based around his image. Without it, there will be plenty of division and infighting.

Liberals care about one thing and one thing only - power.  Holding on to power, minimizing the other guy's power. They will turn on a leader in a heartbeat if they think that leader can't win. 

PP has been polling stronger and stronger every single month since about april or so, and has been into victory territory for months, and is now into majority territory for several polls.

I know there was a lot of anger and unrest at the little 'retreat' they just did. Many want him gone.  they figure ANYONE else is a better choice, ,

There's a reason why one of the first things he announced coming out of that was he woudln't be stepping down.

They can't force him out. So i think they're trying to put a lot of pressure on him to step down now - because by next spring it's really too late.  ANd i think what he's saying is "well let me try these new ideas and we'll re-evalueate next spring".  Then he'll say 'well - maybe i should have stepped down last year but too late now".

[Nexii]

The problem with the Liberals is that they haven't set up a successor that would be popular. It's been 100% the Trudeau show, which isn't great for them now. 

I think most probably expected him to take a job at the U.N. by now, but he doesn't want to move on. 

[CdnFox]

17 minutes ago, Nexii said:

The problem with the Liberals is that they haven't set up a successor that would be popular. It's been 100% the Trudeau show, which isn't great for them now. 

I think most probably expected him to take a job at the U.N. by now, but he doesn't want to move on. 

traditionally you don't need a successor - but you have a talent pool with a few aces that vie for the top position and you get a strong leader.  But - those people usually attain those positions by serving well in cabinet, gaining experience and getting lots of public attention.  OR you court someone from outside the party but who's well liked within the party.

Trudeau has kept people on a tight leash and hogged much of the message for himself, never allowing anyone to stand out. those who did just got sunk with the last cabinet shuffle and are pushed to the back.  And no outsider is going to be interested in joining right now - if they did they'd likely lose and there is NO mercy for that in the liberal party.

So there's maybe one or two who might make a go of it and they probably woulnd't - they'll wait till the next time. Carney could come on and might do ok but who would be interested taking over when you're 13 points behind and you have limited political experience?

The liberals who don't want to be leader want ANYONE else to be leader other than trudeau and the liberals who do want to be leader sure as hell don't want to run for it now. So that's a problem for sure.

 

[August1991]

Canada is a federal state - and we have a federal voting system.

I reckon that most Canadians agree with Trudeau Jnr.

 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, August1991 said:

Canada is a federal state - and we have a federal voting system.

I reckon that most Canadians agree with Trudeau Jnr.

 

Well you reckon wrong according to the polls.

And frankly - a guy in quebec arguing that the federal gov't should be interfering in provincial affairs is pretty weird

[August1991]

1 minute ago, CdnFox said:

Well you reckon wrong according to the polls.

And frankly - a guy in quebec arguing that the federal gov't should be interfering in provincial affairs is pretty weird

True, across English Canada, the federal NDP and Liberals have more popular votes than the Conservatives.

But Canada is a federal state.

Imagine.

 

[Canadian_Cavalier]

26 minutes ago, August1991 said:

True, across English Canada, the federal NDP and Liberals have more popular votes than the Conservatives.

But Canada is a federal state.

Imagine.

 

This isn't how popular support works. You assume every NDP voter would gladly vote liberal and vice versa even though that's far from true. When the Canadian Alliance and federal PCs merged into the CPC, certain backers of the PCs saw it as dominated by the Reform/Alliance wing and became what we now know as Trudeau voters.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, August1991 said:

True, across English Canada, the federal NDP and Liberals have more popular votes than the Conservatives.

But Canada is a federal state.

Imagine.

 

I don't think you understand how any of this works.

[August1991]

43 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

I don't think you understand how any of this works.

I understand very well how this works.

And I suspect that Poilieuvre understands it too.

====

As I say, Canada is a federal country.

[CdnFox]

53 minutes ago, August1991 said:

I understand very well how this works.

And I suspect that Poilieuvre understands it too.

====

As I say, Canada is a federal country.

You clearly don't, and canada is a confederation. Which means it's not just a federal country.

[August1991]

On 9/24/2023 at 2:42 AM, CdnFox said:

You clearly don't, and canada is a confederation. Which means it's not just a federal country.

Confederation? Federal country? CdnFox, as you wish.

====

Ontario is a place to live. Canada is different.

[Army Guy]

Well i would not expect the liberal party to make any gains this week, nor next week , what needs to happen is the NDP needs to pull their support and put an end to this train wreck..............it is concerning however every party is losing popularity, except the conservatives and greens, now the greens that is a WTF moment, why ?

Edited September 28, 2023 by Army Guy

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, Army Guy said:

Well i would not expect the liberal party to make any gains this week, nor next week , what needs to happen is the NDP needs to pull their support and put an end to this train wreck..............it is concerning however every party is losing popularity, except the conservatives and greens, now the greens that is a WTF moment, why ?

The problem is the NDP is taking a beating too and won't be excited about the idea of rising their already reduced seat count. If the ndp was picking up the lib vote it would be different but Not only is that not happening but they're bleeding to the CPC! So they  really won't want to go to the polls.

The greens will be picking up a little bit of the protest vote out there right now. It's not out of range for them historically.

[August1991]

5 hours ago, Army Guy said:

Well i would not expect the liberal party to make any gains this week, nor next week , what needs to happen is the NDP needs to pull their support and put an end to this train wreck..............it is concerning however every party is losing popularity, except the conservatives and greens, now the greens that is a WTF moment, why ?

Many urban women who voted for Justin Trudeau - will not vote NDP.

[August1991]

3 hours ago, CdnFox said:

The problem is the NDP is taking a beating too...

At the federal level, Canada is regional politics.

[CdnFox]

8 hours ago, August1991 said:

At the federal level, Canada is regional politics.

You don't understand anything that we talk about much do you.  Is it a language barrier? I could have some sympathy for that. I assume french is your first language and english is your second?

[Aristides]

It's just over two years till the next election. A lot can happen. It could even be three years if they go to the constitutional maximum of five years between elections.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Aristides

[August1991]

On 9/28/2023 at 2:25 PM, CdnFox said:

You don't understand anything that we talk about much do you.  Is it a language barrier? I could have some sympathy for that. I assume french is your first language and english is your second?

I have lived in various parts of Canada. It is my country.

=====

Canada is remarkable We people in Canada have often been forced to choose on religious or language: Team A vs Team B.

Yet, we get along. 

 

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, August1991 said:

I have lived in various parts of Canada. It is my country.

=====

Canada is remarkable We people in Canada have often been forced to choose on religious or language: Team A vs Team B.

Yet, we get along. 

 

We're never forced to choose based on religion and we don't get along.  I feel this kind of proves my point about your not fully understanding things.  But hey - whatever delusions float your boat.

[Nefarious Banana]

Canada is like a big beautiful car.  Perhaps a Sedan de Ville, an Imperial, or a Continental . . . . this car has everything! . . . At the wheel and jumping up and down on the elegant upholstery are a bunch shitty-assed kids.  Pushing buttons, pulling this, twisting that, posing at the windows, pretending they're driving when in reality they can't get the car started.  These shitty-assed little punks are the Federal Liberals of to-day.  The other punk that's pouring water down the fuel spout is the NDP enabler . . .

When these punks have damaged our once beautiful car to the degree that it'll take a decade or more to fix, they'll open the doors and run.  Run to the fat pensions they do not deserve . . . leaving the beautiful car in shambles, the industries that fuel the car in shambles . . . . etc., etc.