Chinese Spy Balloon Invades US Airspace.

[Infidel Dog]

Aren't these things maneuverable? I've heard talking heads say they are.

Is this common: that Chinese weather balloons go this far off course?

Why now? Why 2 of them.

The Chinese say these balloons were "private." Does that seem likely?

If they could shoot them down over the ocean, why not over bush, desert, mountains or some other unpopulated area?

Could a bioweapon be a possible future payload on a future "private" Chinese weather balloon? I'm still not convinced these 2 weren't part of a dry run or a warning. With trouble in the Pacific looking like it's coming. Could this be a not so subtle warning for America to stay out of it?

This is what it looks like.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Infidel Dog

[Dougie93]

24 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

Aren't these things maneuverable? I've heard talking heads say they are.

you said they were operating at 120,000 feet

at that altitude, the prevailing winds would be carrying it to the east at high speed

so it could perhaps manoeuvre up & down or left & right

but it couldn't stop itself from blowing across the continent out to sea with the jet stream

[herbie]

Yeah I heard the 'talking heads' claim they're maneuverable too. Duhh that thing underneath must be a propellor... duhhh

Like you ever in your life see a commercial blimp or balloon that was completely round and had no outboard engines? Never heard of hot air balloons going off course? Contests trying to land them close to the X, with a pilot onboard?

FFS the entire USA believes in conspiracies before they'd believe in f***-ups.

Besides, it's shot down over the Atlantic

Edited February 4, 2023 by herbie

[Infidel Dog]

If you say "China" as in communist "China" to me, I get suspicious. 

[Infidel Dog]

1 hour ago, Dougie93 said:

you said they were operating at 120,000 feet

Are you sure? I could have swore I read somewhere it was 60,000.

[Infidel Dog]

In fact, I just checked the AP link in the OP. They say this:

Quote

Aside from the government response, fuzzy videos dotted social media as people with binoculars and telephoto lenses tried to find the “spy balloon” in the sky as it headed southeastward over Kansas and Missouri at 60,000 feet (18,300 meters).

 

[Dougie93]

10 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

Are you sure? I could have swore I read somewhere it was 60,000.

I don't know, I was going on your 120,000 ft number

in general tho, the prevailing winds are blowing west to east

so if you are floating at high altitude, you will move east at hundreds of miles per hour

unless you have some sort of thrust to drive you in the opposite direction

I mean, the balloon started in China, blew across the Pacific, then North America, to the Atlantic

and it was going fast, because it didn't take very long to travel that distance

Edited February 4, 2023 by Dougie93

[Infidel Dog]

12 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

I don't know, I was going on your 120,000 ft number

Where? Must have been on the other thread. Hang On. I'll check.

Nope.

I do kind of remember another link I posted where they were saying something like 60,000 to something.

Could that be it?

60,000 was always the number in my head.

When I was reading in one of your links that EMPs had to happen hundreds of miles up that kind of blew my mind. I never knew that. When I read it I remember thinking that's a little higher than 60,000 feet. Way, way higher.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Infidel Dog

[Dougie93]

8 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

Where? Must have been on the other thread. Hang On. I'll check.

Nope.

I do kind of remember another link I posted where they were saying something like 60,000 to something.

Could that be it?

60,000 was always the number in my head.

When I was reading in one of your links that EMPs had to happen hundreds of miles up that kind of blew my mind. I never knew that. When I read it I remember thinking that's a little higher than 60,000 feet. Way, way higher.

you posted an article by Forbes which said "such balloons travel at an altitude of 80,000 to 120,000 ft"

the thing about EMP is that the Ionosphere is the mechanism of delivery

the Ionosphere is what delivers the highly charged particles over a very wide area

that is happening well out into space, hundreds of kilometres up,

to seed the Ionosphere with radiation all across the pole

the EMP is only caused by detonating a thermonuclear warhead

at lower levels, this will incite localized EMP

but to take out the whole CONUS with an EMP attack, that would have to be by detonation in orbit

Edited February 5, 2023 by Dougie93

[Infidel Dog]

OK, I think I found it.

It's on a link in the other thread.

(Oops sorry. I just popped back from searching the other thread. Didn't see your post.)

The one from Forbes incorrectly claiming it would be difficult to take one these things out:

Quote

Such balloons typically fly at 80,000 feet or more – NASA’s version cruises at 120,000 feet..

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fdavidhambling%2F2023%2F02%2F03%2Fbusting-that-chinese-balloon-is-harder-than-you-think%2F%3Fsh%3D1fe75f467d6a

Edited February 5, 2023 by Infidel Dog

[Infidel Dog]

I didn't say 120 thousand feet though. I didn't even say 60. The figure from the original link of 60,000 was the one in my head though.

Either way it's a hell of a lot lower than the hundreds of miles up that would be necessary for an EMP. So you got me there. Even though I was more talking about what my fellow tin foilers were saying was possible. They like the hidden bioweapon idea too.

[Dougie93]

3 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

Either way it's a hell of a lot lower than the hundreds of miles up that would be necessary for an EMP. So you got me there. Even though I was more talking about what my fellow tin foilers were saying was possible. They like the hidden bioweapon idea too.

I am expert on thermonuclear weapons

but I've never heard anything about them being delivered by a balloon

you posted "Today there's the danger EMP attacks. Apparently high hovering Balloons would be ideal for that."

that makes no sense to me, knowing what I do about EMP

first of all, EMP is not useful against military targets

military electronics are hardened against EMP

only civilian infrastructure is vulnerable to EMP

the threat of an EMP attack ;

would be a continent wide long term blackout by detonation of a nuke in the Ionosphere

mind you, it's not hard to protect civilian electronics from EMP too

either by a Faraday Bag

or even just wrapping them in tinfoil will prevent them from being fried by EMP

Edited February 5, 2023 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

7 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

 They like the hidden bioweapon idea too.

tests during the Cold War showed that strategic delivery of bioweapons is unreliable

the adversary would also retaliate with nuclear weapons against a bioweapon attack

hence if you are going to go so far as to launch a bioweapon by missile or aircraft

you'd might as well just go with the much more reliable nukes instead

a bioweapon attack needs to be plausibly deniable

like deliberately releasing a bioweapon from a lab and then claiming it was an accident, for example

[Infidel Dog]

9 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

you posted "Today there's the danger EMP attacks. Apparently high hovering Balloons would be ideal for that."

that makes no sense to me, knowing what I do about EMP

Yeah, I know. I was getting bad info from this guy:

and others. They seem to think EMPs start in the stratosphere. I can't diss em' for it. It's what I always thought with my limited info too.

 

[Dougie93]

2 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

Yeah, I know. I was getting bad info from this guy:

thing about the EMP effect induced by Starfish Prime in 1962:

in 1962, everything was analogue

the electronics were quite rudimentary, which also meant they were robust

so the EMP was blowing out street lights and whatnot in 1962

but semiconductors are much more vulnerable

EMP will fry semiconductors which are not specifically insulated against it

and everything now, is semiconductors

so it would have exponential effects now which it did not in 1962

[Dougie93]

14 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

and others. They seem to think EMPs start in the stratosphere. I can't diss em' for it. It's what I always thought with my limited info too.

the main thing to understand is that the EMP is not an alternative to a nuke

the EMP is a nuke

EMP is a nuke going off in orbit above the earth

if someone pops a nuke in orbit now ?

that would be the opening strike in an all out surprise attack to initiate World War Three

is China really that desperate already  ?

seems like there are other things they could do, short of inciting the Americans to launch on warning

Edited February 5, 2023 by Dougie93

[Infidel Dog]

You may misunderstand me. I'm not completely ignorant on the subject.

I know an EMP weapon is a nuke. I know what a Faraday bag is. I know the damage is mostly civilian. It takes out the electric grid and most communications is what I heard. And after that fat generals are monitoring what they can gather of international attacks and counters from their underground bunkers while the apocalypse happens above.

Edited February 5, 2023 by Infidel Dog

[Dougie93]

15 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

You may misunderstand me. I'm not completely ignorant on the subject.

I know an EMP weapon is a nuke. I know what a Faraday bag is. I know the damage is mostly civilian. It takes out the electric grid and most communications is what I heard. And after that fat generals are monitoring buttons being pushed from their underground bunkers while the apocalypse happens above.

okay, but still, saying that China would launch an EMP attack on America

is the same thing as saying that China would launch a preemptive nuclear first strike on America

and China doesn't have the nuclear arsenal to back that up

so it seems extremely unlikely that China would just up and commit suicide all of a sudden

because the TRIAD is going to retaliate against an EMP nuclear strike

the same as it would any other nuclear strike

and actually, the Generals won't survive in their bunkers, those bunkers are targeted with nukes

even the Cheyenne Mountain Complex wouldn't survive a direct hit

Edited February 5, 2023 by Dougie93

[Infidel Dog]

I'm not saying they would though.

Back when I thought an EMP weapon launched from a balloon was possible I was on board with considering the threat.

I get your point though. You believe what they call "mutually assured destruction" is enough to make you stop worrying.

Can't fault you. It's worked so far.

New things keep happening though.

[Dougie93]

35 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

I get your point though. You believe what they call "mutually assured destruction" is enough to make you stop worrying.

actually my view on that is quite nuanced

there is a stalemate in terms of a strategic interpolar exchange of ICBM's & SLBM's

but I would say a theatre thermonuclear war with tactical nuclear weapons is becoming more likely all the time

the nuclear powers will avoid nuking each other directly, but that doesn't mean there wont be a nuclear war

I would surmise that the first use of nuclear weapons might rather be at sea

like a nuclear depth charge dropped on a submarine

or a nuclear cruise missile fired at an aircraft carrier

but it's probably not going to be China v. America

China & Pakistan  v. India is the much more likely match up right now

China, India, Pakistan is the accelerating trilateral nuclear arms race in play at this juncture

the American TRIAD is so formidable,

it is unlikely anyone would attack America, except by mistake or accident

like on 26 September 1983

when the Soviets thought they were under ICBM attack from America

when it was actually just a false alarm off their defective Oko early warning satellite

the massive retaliatory doctrine of MAD actually backfires, in a launch on false warning scenario

the worry of nuclear weapons is more about Murphy's Law

the longer you sit on permanent hair trigger alert

the more the probability of a systemic failure increases

furthermore, if a third party initiated a theatre tactical nuclear war

that is going to incite the major nuclear powers right to the brink, just by paranoia

then in the fog of war, the probability of making a mistake goes up exponentially

Edited February 5, 2023 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

48 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

New things keep happening though.

those things include technological dislocations of the stable 1960's MAD paradigm

artificial intelligence combined with futuristic distributed sensors

which would allow you to locate the adversary's ballistic missile submarines & road mobile ICBM's

combined with precision accurate, stealth,  hypersonic theatre counterforce weapons

backed up by comprehensive ballistic missile defense worldwide

this making a preemptive first strike which was once near impossible, suddenly very doable

at which point the whole MAD thing starts to unravel

in the face of a new counterforce / missile defense arms race

to wit, technology is advancing at a pace now, faster than 1960s MAD can keep up

Edited February 5, 2023 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

1 hour ago, Infidel Dog said:

Can't fault you. It's worked so far.

oh it is starting to break down

but the danger is not China & Russia advancing on a hapless & helpless American patsy

rather America is starting to leave Russia & China behind

the American technological advantage is becoming so advanced

America is reaching the point where it could launch a preemptive first strike against Russia and China

and neither Russia nor China would see it coming

it's not so much that America is likely to launch such an attack

but as we become ever more capable of doing so

Russia & China become ever more paranoid, and prone to taking ever greater risks to try to deter America

and this again, is where we start to approach nuclear war by misapprehension, miscalculation and/or mistake

Edited February 5, 2023 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

4 hours ago, Infidel Dog said:

The one from Forbes incorrectly claiming it would be difficult to take one these things out:

just a note on this

there are two types of high altitude balloons

the super pressure type

and the zero pressure type

the zero pressure type are the ones which can't be easily shot down : no pressure, so they don't pop

 

[Infidel Dog]

I've been doing a little reading around myself, Dougie.

It's starting to look to me like the upper limits of a balloon will hit the lower limits of ionosphere and the theory seems to be a lower level blast would create EMP damage but over a smaller limited area.

What do you think? Possible?

[Dougie93]

22 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

I've been doing a little reading around myself, Dougie.

It's starting to look to me like the upper limits of a balloon will hit the lower limits of ionosphere and the theory seems to be a lower level blast would create EMP damage but over a smaller limited area.

What do you think? Possible?

well a large hydrogen bomb will generate a localized EMP

but the EMP doomsday scenario is an EMP which takes out the whole continent

a localized EMP is not going to be more destructive than the large hydrogen bomb

so I don't see the military utility of the EMP in that case