Polls: We're back where we started at.

[takeanumber]

The latest poll, released on May 6, put out by SES, has the Libs at 36, Cons at 30, NDP at 18, and Greens at 4, BQ at 12.

I will now summarize the 2004 election results:

Libs 36.7, Cons 29.6, NDP 15.7, BQ 12.4, Green 4.3.

In sum, we are at where we were.

If Harper fails to produce a majority, he's screwed. Anything less than a majority is a humiliation for himself and the party.

[I miss Reagan]

I hate to say I told you so to my right wing associates. But I called it . Kimmy you have to much confidence in Canadians to think they will stand up to corruption.

[takeanumber]

I think Reagan's statement says a lot here:

I think that many Conservatives can't see around their own issues to see the issues of other Canadians.

Corruption is important to Conservatives.

Civil rights, equality, and social programs -- among other issues -- is important to Liberals, NDP, Greeners, and Blocquistes.

Moreover, I'm sure many of you will find this shocking, but many Canadians think the NDP budget is a good one because it denies big business a tax break, retaining revenue for such priorities.

Most Canadians know that Conservatives are just as corrupt as Liberals. And it's true. Stockwell Day, as well as dozens of other Alberta PC gangbangers are in the Conservative Party. They're all dirty, so why take the risk on the Conservatives?

[The Terrible Sweal]

Stephen Harper and his tories need to lose a vote of no confidence as soon as they can.

[Newfie Canadian]

The more polls that come out the more I think Harper's days are numbered.

Do I agree with it? Not really.

The poll results are distressing. The poll was released on the 6th, but when was it taken? Before Guité's most recent testimony, I would assume, so the next poll may be different.

[kimmy]

If Harper fails to produce a majority, he's screwed.  Anything less than a majority is a humiliation for himself and the party.

Given the absense of CPC support in Quebec, I'm not sure a majority was ever a serious consideration. But given the softening of Liberal support in Ontario and the Atlantic, and absense of Liberal support elsewhere, failing to win a minority would certainly be a disaster for Harper. If he's not Canada's next Prime Minister, he should give way to somebody else.

I hate to say I told you so to my right wing associates. But I called it tongue.gif . Kimmy you have to much confidence in Canadians to think they will stand up to corruption.

Patience, grasshopper.

I maintain that the polls don't reflect Canadians' tolerance for corruption, they reflect that for several weeks now, the CPC's discussions of calling an election has overshadowed corruption in the polls. They've mishandled it, and they've taken the Liberals' worst issue out of the spotlight. But it'll be back in the spotlight at election time, whenever that is. The Liberals' desperate efforts to recruit the NDP and Kilgour to their cause show that the upswing in the polls hasn't made them any more willing to fight an election right now. Why? Because they know that the swing in polls is because people are ticked that the CPC is considering forcing an election, not that people have forgiven the corruption, and they know that when the campaign on, it'll be front and center again.

-k

[takeanumber]

You assume that:

a. People are following the news.

b. People care.

c. People believe him.

I think the people who care have already made up their minds.

I think that there are other issues, and most people have not yet discovered that Harper has flip flopped on nearly every issue, except for homosexuals. However, the Cons have a whole gaggle of Harris losers running in ridings, so I'm sure that's going to hurt them too. Moreover, the cons were denoucing Guite as a liar before...now what he says is gospel. I think that there is plent of room for liberal spin here. I think that such liberal spin can work.

I predict that we're stable. I don't think that many Canadians are going to be forgiving of the Cons and the Bloc imposing a 100 million dollar cost for an election that really, honestly, based on the results here, only benefit the BQ.

Oh, and because of the finance reform, the BQ is really going to get a lot of money next year. Yeah, it's that bad. It's an election to fund the seperatists.

I'm not sympathetic to the Liberals, but man, I'm really dissapointed in the Cons.

[I miss Reagan]

Patience, grasshopper.

I maintain that the polls don't reflect Canadians' tolerance for corruption, they reflect that for several weeks now, the CPC's discussions of calling an election has overshadowed corruption in the polls. They've mishandled it, and they've taken the Liberals' worst issue out of the spotlight. But it'll be back in the spotlight at election time, whenever that is. The Liberals' desperate efforts to recruit the NDP and Kilgour to their cause show that the upswing in the polls hasn't made them any more willing to fight an election right now. Why? Because they know that the swing in polls is because people are ticked that the CPC is considering forcing an election, not that people have forgiven the corruption, and they know that when the campaign on, it'll be front and center again.

Good points Kimmy but I am still cynical. If anything this just shows how fleeceable Canadians are, being swung every which way but what the media decides to hype on any given day. If we have to rely on the Canadian media, we're toast.

[I miss Reagan]

The more polls that come out the more I think Harper's days are numbered.

Do I agree with it? Not really.

Newf, I don't understand some of the critisism of Harper. The only strike against him I see is that he is branded as being 'from the west'. True he's dull but do we want an aggressive candidate to encourage conservative stereotypes the left use against us? However I do think a guy like Peter McKay would be a great leader.

[takeanumber]

My biggest strike against Harper is not that he's from the West.

Hell, I'm from the West, and I suspect, should I move to Van or Toronto, I'd be a bit right of centre compared to the mean.

My concern derives from his association with the 'Calgary School'.

I am in a position to write a lot about the Calgary School, though I won't at lenght because I could write a book on it and most ppl stop reading after three sentences.

I'll just say that the policies that Harper wants to pursue are in line with the Calgary School, and moderate Canadians need to think about what those policies entail, because many of them are quite radical to most sensibilities.

For me, it's not that Harper's agenda is hidden. I know the Calgary School agenda remarkably well. Admitedly, most Canadians do not the first place to look for the books that comprise the thought of the Calgary School, but they do exist.

Yes, I get along with many in the Calgary School on a personal level. I count many of them as my friends. But their policies are not suited for Canada. Some of their recent tactics (pitting minority against minority) demonstrate this.

Harper isn't being clear with Canadians as to the nature of his vision, and the extent that the Calgary School will play in this vision.

[Newfie Canadian]

Newf, I don't understand some of the critisism of Harper. The only strike against him I see is that he is branded as being 'from the west'. True he's dull but do we want an aggressive candidate to encourage conservative stereotypes the left use against us? However I do think a guy like Peter McKay would be a great leader.

Some of the criticisms of Harper that I have seen are held over from some of the criticisms of the Reform/Alliance party, which you must admit made some mistakes and some ill advised and ill timed mental lapses. Again, I don't think that's right, I don't think Harper is the boogeyman that some people make him out to be. Perhaps his personal dullness is why these holdover attributes are given to Harper.

I'm not sure I would vote for Peter McKay. He has a lot of baggage from the PC leadership debacle, I confess, before that I thought very highly of him.

[August1991]

Welcome back, TalkNumb. I notice that your bombast has not changed.

I assume that when you refer to the "Calgary School", you mean the "Chicago School (Canada)" or some such. But then, the "Chicago School" is so, like, you know, 1970s.

You are kind of right that we're back where we were at the beginning. But somehow, things are different.

The French in Quebec are appalled that Ontarians are about to vote Liberal. I have a suspicion that any Western leader would be unacceptable to Ontario voters. The Liberal Party is now a regional party of Ontario and English Quebec.

[The Terrible Sweal]

The more polls that come out the more I think Harper's days are numbered.

Do I agree with it? Not really.

Newf, I don't understand some of the critisism of Harper. The only strike against him I see is that he is branded as being 'from the west'. True he's dull but do we want an aggressive candidate to encourage conservative stereotypes the left use against us? However I do think a guy like Peter McKay would be a great leader.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harper's problem is not that he is 'from the west'. It's that he's:

-too pro-American/insuffiently Canadian Nationalist,

-identified publicly with harsh right-wing economics,

-leading a party that plays footsie with radical social conservatism,

-leading a party that is seen as least-environmental, and

-is completely uninspiring.

And as for Peter MacKay, he's a known liar and permanently damaged goods.

[The Terrible Sweal]

Welcome back, TalkNumb.  I notice that your bombast has not changed.

I assume that when you refer to the "Calgary School", you mean the "Chicago School (Canada)" or some such.  But then, the "Chicago School" is so, like, you know, 1970s.

The Calgary School is not the same thing as the Chicago School. The latter is an academic movement in economics. The former is a clutch of bighead/smallbrain leatherelbows at the University of Calgary. Their goal is to have Canada disestablish itself and become annexed to the United States.

[The Terrible Sweal]

The French in Quebec are appalled that Ontarians are about to vote Liberal. 

Well fair is fair. The English in Canada have been appalled at the voting habits of the French in Quebec for a long time now.

[I miss Reagan]

-too pro-American/insuffiently Canadian Nationalist,

-identified publicly with harsh right-wing economics,

-leading a party that plays footsie with radical social conservatism,

-leading a party that is seen as least-environmental, and

-is completely uninspiring.

At least that's how he's portrayed by the liberal media.

Their goal is to have Canada disestablish itself and become annexed to the United States.

That's exactly what we want *tapping fingers together*. Perhaps we'll sell Canada for one.... million....dollars *evil laugh*

Perhaps you guys should take a lesson from the "Calgary School". We lead the country in almost every respect...

[Black Dog]

Perhaps you guys should take a lesson from the "Calgary School". We lead the country in almost every respect...

Yeah those Calgary School dudes did an awesome job when they put all that oil under Alberta.

[takeanumber]

Calgary succeeds in spite of the PC association of Alberta, not because of it. No lessons are needed from the Calgary school.

Thx for the greeting August. And thx Sweal for being the second source on the Calgary School.

I think that support for the Cons would fall to 10%, and a handful of seats in Alberta and Interior BC, if the Calgary School agenda was laid out and made plain for Canadians.

Sadly, the Canadian public doesn't have much time or interest in knowing policies, so we'll just resort to the old methods and snappy catchlines. "Hidden Agenda" here we come.

[I miss Reagan]

Yeah those Calgary School dudes did an awesome job when they put all that oil under Alberta.

You're right again! Man oil does all the work doesn't it. Look how great it's worked for Saskatchewan, Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria.

Sadly, the Canadian public doesn't have much time or interest in knowing policies, so we'll just resort to the old methods and snappy catchlines. "Hidden Agenda" here we come

And even more sadly it works...

[takeanumber]

there's an element of truth in that it is a 'hidden' agenda.

---------

Calgary is so dependent on Oil. It's an emirate really. A corrupt government that never changes...semi-free elections, largely because of blatant gettymandering and a censured media.

Yet, there are good people here in Calgary who actually work. No, I'm not talking about the accountants who work for big oil downtown. They call a 4 day workweek and 3 hour, 3 martini lunches "work".

No, I'm talking about the entrepreuneurs who have actually managed to diversify the economy here somewhat. It's still way too dependent on oil, but there is a lot of service sector and quaternary innovation happening.

This is not because of government policy.

Infrastructure, education, health and quality of life has really deteriorated here over the years. It's amazing how much money is wasted, and not even on social programs, but just in out and out patronage.

Cons are no better than Libs.

The more I think about it, it's probably better to go with the devil we know.

[Black Dog]

Look how great it's worked for Saskatchewan, Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria.

Saskatchewan, under the "socialist" NDP, has turned itself into a "have" province, partly due to increased attention to oil and gas exploration and production.

Venezuala, home to some of the world's largest oil reserves, is in poverty thanks to a string of authoritarian, right-wing governments that allowed foreign corporations to expolit the nations resources without ever directing the proceeds back to the population.

Iran and Nigeria are dictatorships and thus don't make for a far comparison. A better comparison would be with BC and Ontario, places where Alberta-style policies were attempted, but failed.

[kimmy]

Infrastructure, education, health and quality of life has really deteriorated here over the years.  It's amazing how much money is wasted, and not even on social programs, but just in out and out patronage.

Cons are no better than Libs. 

The more I think about it, it's probably better to go with the devil we know.

(I'm confused. Are you endorsing Paul Martin, or Ralph Klein?)

Perhaps you guys should take a lesson from the "Calgary School". We lead the country in almost every respect...

Yeah those Calgary School dudes did an awesome job when they put all that oil under Alberta.

So anything good that happens here is because we've got more money?

A better comparison would be with BC and Ontario, places where Alberta-style policies were attempted, but failed.

Admittedly I pay little attention to the wacky world of BC politics, but isn't it the case that the Liberals are likely to be returned to office largely because the BC economy is stronger than it's been in a long time? In what categories have the Liberals' policies failed? It sounds like (perhaps like federal voters) the BC electorate has decided to overlook scandal to support a government that seems to be having some success.

-k

[I miss Reagan]

Calgary is so dependent on Oil. It's an emirate really. A corrupt government that never changes...semi-free elections, largely because of blatant gettymandering and a censured media.

Now you're just going insane. Get ahold of yourself man!!

Yet, there are good people here in Calgary who actually work. No, I'm not talking about the accountants who work for big oil downtown. They call a 4 day workweek and 3 hour, 3 martini lunches "work".

No, I'm talking about the entrepreuneurs who have actually managed to diversify the economy here somewhat. It's still way too dependent on oil, but there is a lot of service sector and quaternary innovation happening.

What company has this lax work policy!? I wanna go there!

You really don't have a clue do you. You obviously don't work in the oil and gas industry. And FYI there are hundreds of entrepreneurs in Alberta running small/micro-cap oil companies.

[I miss Reagan]

Saskatchewan, under the "socialist" NDP, has turned itself into a "have" province, partly due to increased attention to oil and gas exploration and production.

You are right about that, but they aren't acting like their socialist cousins. They've finally realized they have to provide incentives to encourage exploration and development. I'm sorry but this isn't typical NDP behaviour. If you really want to know why Saskatchewan doesn't have wealth, cities, roads and infrastructure that Alberta has you need to look at the NDP instituted Oil and Gas Conservation and Stabilization Act of 1973 where the government of Saskatchewan actually STOLE producing lands away from individuals and companies. Great idea right? Right in line with all the socialists on this board who continually cry out for higher corporate taxation and higher taxes on the rich. In reality it just screwed Saskatchewan. The big investment money pulled out and vowed never to return. So now you have a Saskatchewan without infrastucture like gas plants, refineries and company head quarters locations. And they're far to behind to ever catch up. They'll always be Alberta's 'lapdog' as you would say.

[MustangJay]

The more polls that come out the more I think Harper's days are numbered.

Do I agree with it? Not really.

Newf, I don't understand some of the critisism of Harper. The only strike against him I see is that he is branded as being 'from the west'. True he's dull but do we want an aggressive candidate to encourage conservative stereotypes the left use against us? However I do think a guy like Peter McKay would be a great leader.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harper's problem is not that he is 'from the west'. It's that he's:

-too pro-American/insuffiently Canadian Nationalist,

-identified publicly with harsh right-wing economics,

-leading a party that plays footsie with radical social conservatism,

-leading a party that is seen as least-environmental, and

-is completely uninspiring.

And as for Peter MacKay, he's a known liar and permanently damaged goods.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't forget his hair cut is worse then Donald Trump's!