When Should Harper Pull the Plug?

[August1991]

I was listening to English CBC radio phone-in today and the topic was "should we have a federal n election". Without exception, they all said no, with a plaintive hint of fear and desperation. (Many were from Westmount which, if you don't know, is English-Canada's snob-central.) These people are federalists well before they are democrats.

The fact of the matter is that the BQ, the NDP and the Tories cannot support this government much longer. Any supporting opposition party risks being sucked into the strange moral black hole of PM PM and his office. ("Canadians need more information before deciding how to vote... ")

I have no doubt whatsoever that if the shoe was on the other foot, the PM PM and the Liberals would not hesitate for two nanoseconds in calling/engineering an election. (Imagine that Harper had been caught in bed with the proverbial cheerleader.) According to some (ie. Kimmy), PM PM was "planning" to lose a confidence vote as recently as a few weeks ago.

I think Harper has no choice but to make this government fall. He has no choice because if he hesitates, he will appear incompetent. A loser.

For many Canadians, a Tory vote will be a leap of faith. Harper has to appear capable of leading the country.

As an election strategy, he might try the lines (Jimmy-Carter style) "My government will not steal money from you" or "I will be Prime Minister for all Canadians".

OTOH, many Canadians (in particular women) absolutely dislike Harper. Maybe he should not pander to such people since he will never get their votes whatever he says or does. He won't even get their respect.

Whatever the strategy, Harper himself must take the high road. All the ugly accusations must come from someone else's mouth, not Harper. At most, Harper can use the derisive "there you go again" to Martin when PM PM uses Argument #137 to explain what happened.

At the end of the day, Harper must live with the fact that he will never be a loved PM and many won't even respect him. He's a Margaret Thatcher-style politician. Some will simply and always hate him. IOW, Harper must play to those people who will potentially vote for him. And he will lose their vote if he doesn't unplug this government soon.

How to do it? Easy. The BQ cannot vote for any motion that supports this government. Even the NDP can't do it. These guys are toxic.

[I Miss Trudeau]

The fact of the matter is that the BQ, the NDP and the Tories cannot support this government much longer.  Any supporting opposition party risks being sucked into the strange moral black hole of PM PM and his office. ("Canadians need more information before deciding how to vote... ")

The problem is that they don't know how future testimony will go, or even if the inquiry will be complete and the report issued before an election occurs. It could be disastrous for all of the opposition parties if the testimony at the Gomery inquiry at the time of the election involves allegations of falsity leveled at earlier testimony. One semi-credible testimony at the right time could all but finish the CPC, though the Bloc would better survive such an event.

I think Harper has no choice but to make this government fall.  He has no choice because if he hesitates, he will appear incompetent.  A loser.

The problem is that if the Liberals can force Harper to provide more than condemnations of adscam during the election (ie. force him to articulate some sort of platform), he will appear far worse than incompetent; bigoted and ignorant come to mind.

For many Canadians, a Tory vote will be a leap of faith.  Harper has to appear capable of leading the country.

Which would be quite a feat for Harper to pull off. A lot of Conservative supporters don't have faith in his ability to do that, let alone liberals and undecideds.

As an election strategy, he might try the lines (Jimmy-Carter style) "My government will not steal money from you" or "I will be Prime Minister for all Canadians".

The latter claim will be easily destroyed with the minor addition, "... , except for homosexuals."

Whatever the strategy, Harper himself must take the high road.  All the ugly accusations must come from someone else's mouth, not Harper.

The same as happened last election. Unfortunatly, the ugly accusations are likely to include things like "The gays have a conspiracy to take over the world!" You know.. the kind of stuff we heard from the noname CPC candidates.

Harper, to have a chance, has to be the primary spokesman. And he needs to keep 80% of his candidates completely away from the media.

[August1991]

The problem is that they don't know how future testimony will go, or even if the inquiry will be complete and the report issued before an election occurs.

IMT, the problem is that PM PM called an election for June 2004 before anyone knew any of this.

To argue now that we must wait until Gomery submits a final report is, well, moving into a parallel universe.

Harper, to have a chance, has to be the primary spokesman. And he needs to keep 80% of his candidates completely away from the media.

"Away from the media?" IMT, I'll put you down as a "non-Harper voter".

Let's be honest IMT. Under no conditions, would you vote for Harper. (Am I wrong?) You think the Tories are dishonest, fascist thugs who will destroy your Canada.

So IMT, what is your Canada? A country run by thieves? Or a country run by fascists?

IMT, is that how you view the choice?

[Bakunin]

Politics is politics, if harper can't win this election then he will never be able to.

Paul Martin would jump on an occasion like this if he could.

I think what is the best thing to do is to prepare evryone for a campain election next month, this will let the time to corriveau and group evrest to go at the gomery comissions. If possible they should start after we know what role Earnscliffe had. Anyway after that we will all have a pretty good idea of what happened. There is no way we should let the liberal recover.

[August1991]

"Canadians don't need to form the kind of judgments Mr. Justice Gomery is going to form," Harper told a group of real estate executives in Ottawa.

"Justice Gomery has to make decisions about potential prosecutions, about criminality. Frankly, the standards of the electorate are a lot higher than that."

CTV

IMV, you are right Bakunin. Americans held Nixon to such standards. Should English-Canadians or federalists pardon such behaviour?

What country do they want to defend?

What kind of country will they have?

[I Miss Trudeau]

To argue now that we must wait until Gomery submits a final report is, well, moving into a parallel universe.

I didn't argue that you must wait for the final report, I simply said that not waiting could be very costly. Believe me, I want nothing more than for Harper to force an election and get burned, so I actually hope he forces one soon. And frankly, it doesn't seem that waiting will benefit the Liberals much anyway.

With the political furor in Canada right now over one man's testimony, it is very hard to predict what would happen if the Liberals could produce someone that they can pass off as credible that would contradict it.

I suspect that the Liberals would have very little trouble spinning that into an attack on the Conservatives for prematurely knocking down the government before hearing other evidence.

The whole inquiry could turn very very bad for the Conservatives if they topple the government and go into an election. Will it? Who knows. But the possibility is there.

"Away from the media?"  IMT, I'll put you down as a "non-Harper voter".

You can put me down as a "non-religious fundamentalist voter." Harper needs to stop placating that part of the population, which will support the Conservatives anyway, and campaign on a paltform belonging in this century. I suspect he would do a lot better. Allthough I suspect that he really believes that some "sorts" of people need to be excluded from full participation and recognition in society, so I hope the Conservatives never realize this.

Let's be honest IMT. Under no conditions, would you vote for Harper. (Am I wrong?)

Correct. If he was truly the best option available, I'd move to Sweden or kill myself or something.

So IMT, what is your Canada?  A country run by thieves? Or a country run by fascists?

Neither. I don't have a lot of love for the Liberal party; I actually rather dislike the party. However, contrasted with my absolute hatred of the Conservative views on equality, the Liberals appear relatively saintly.

My preferences can actually be pretty neatly summed up:

1) Conservatives don't win.

2) NDP win.

3) Liberals win.

IMT, is that how you view the choice?

At this point in time, pretty much.

[August1991]

I Miss Trudeau, I appreciate your honesty.

I will respond honestly in kind.

[Slavik44]

hmm...I think the conservatives run the risk of losign any support this recent moral outrage has garnered if they wait to long, but then they also may see some backlash if they call an election, and besides in B.C we will have enough trouble keeping track of which Liberal party is eviler, if there was a spring federal election. But either way an election may not be to benificial to the conservatives.

[kimmy]

With the political furor in Canada right now over one man's testimony, it is very hard to predict what would happen if the Liberals could produce someone that they can pass off as credible that would contradict it.

"One man's testimony"? Did the Liberals release another set of talking-points? hmm. I must have been booted from the mailing-list again.

It is true that Brault is, indeed, just one man. It is true that his vivid recollection of brown envelopes and Italian restaurants had a flair that the inquiry has lacked to this point... which might be why it has proven so explosive. However, his testimony is pretty much the same in nature as that provided earlier in the inquiry.

Those of you hoping for something to come out of the inquiry to save the Liberals' bacon should be praying extra-hard over the next couple of weeks, as testimony is schedule to wrap up in early May. But there has been little in the way of outright denials of anything at the inquiry; just memory-lapses, not the sort of thing likely to swing public opinion 180 on this.

-kimmy

[I Miss Trudeau]

Did the Liberals release another set of talking-points?

You just can't be bothered to read the entirety of a post or thread if doing so would get in the way of making an off base and inane sarcastic remark, can you?

[kimmy]

I read the entirety of your post. The stuff in regard to Harper, I won't bother taking issue with, as I don't think there's any point in discussing that with you. The part in regard to the effect of the Gomery inquiry's impact on public opinion, and the possibility of it spinning on a dime if the right testimony came out, seemed highly optimistic on your point and in large measure that optimism appears to have been founded on the assumption that it's just Jean Brault's testimony, which of course is not really the truth.

And you're not alone in trying to describe it as "just one man's testimony". I've read countless times in the past week, both here and elsewhere, Liberal supporters saying "it's just one man; a guy charged with fraud." That so many Liberal-boosters have come up with this mistaken argument at the same time is what made me reference "talking-points".

-kimmy

[Newfie Canadian]

The polls are saying that over 80% of Canadians want to hear Gomery's report before an election.

That's not barely a majority, it's a pretty hefty one.

The last thing Harper needs to do is the send a crooked, weary and ticked off electorate to the polls, where the slightest little misstep on any CPC candidate's part could take some of that anger away from the Liberals and put it on them.

The Liberals are hurting and there is no sign, not even subtle little hints from the Liberals that it is going to get beter for them.

Bide your time. Wait. Let it fester.

[The Terrible Sweal]

Americans held Nixon to such standards. Should English-Canadians or federalists pardon such behaviour?

Here we go... tory partisans are working themselves up into a lather, but skipping important considerations which the voters will notice.

August, Nixon was forced from office because he, personally had done wrong. There is no such indication about Martin (or as fa as I can tell, any of is cabinet).

[Newfie Canadian]

There is no such indication about Martin (or as fa as I can tell, any of is cabinet).

Alas Sweal, if I may, politics is very rarely about the truth, isn't it?

It's all about perception, and if it is perceived by the public that Martin had to know something, it's almost the same as his having the smoking gun in his hand.

And it looks like the rats are starting to abandon the S.S. Liberal.

Kilgour Sitting as Independant

[Shakeyhands]

There is no such indication about Martin (or as fa as I can tell, any of is cabinet).

Alas Sweal, if I may, politics is very rarely about the truth, isn't it?

It's all about perception, and if it is perceived by the public that Martin had to know something, it's almost the same as his having the smoking gun in his hand.

And it looks like the rats are starting to abandon the S.S. Liberal.

Kilgour Sitting as Independant

These 'rats' really bother me, it just goes to show that they are in politics for themselves and themselves only, I have yet to hear anything that makes me think that this is a (sorry Kimmy) systemic problem within the Liberal party. Guys that are only interested in saving their own arses make me ill.

[Guest eureka]

There is also the interesting turn that the testimony of another witness suggests that Brault may have lied. His accountant has denied the payment of $50,000 to someone. He said, categorically, that no such cheque was cut.

That seems to have slipped by unnoticed. It, apparently, will not sell as many papers.

Politics, August, has always produced its share of thieves. They are infinitely preferable to Fascists. And there is a trace of Fascism about the current Right Wing in Canada. Union busting, oppression of the poor and weaker, diversion of moneys to the rich, vilification of those who are different. They are just a few of the familiar Fascist techniques.

I have never been a fan of the Liberals and, as you will know from some of my previous postings, have had conflicts with them in the past. However, the future of the country can not be placed in the hands of those whose every policy has been to weaken Canada and to lessen the civility of our society.

[kimmy]

That's odd. We just had testimony from a Bernard Michaud claiming he did indeed obtain large amounts of cash for Mr Brault, and a cheque register to support the claim.

-k

[Unpolarized]

The bottom line is that the majority of the public does not know the details of the inquiry and also believes (quite rightly) that if it smells something is rotten. The public is sick of it and I think want an end to it and an election is the way to make it happen.

The whole Liberal party is tainted, regardless of which individuals are directly involved. Harper scares me as a potential PM and I think scares many but there is no question that the Liberal party is in a free fall and has lost the confidence of many.

[Michael Hardner]

I agree, Unpolarized.

I'm convinced that many people voted last time to give Martin one single chance to impress them. The scandal details are bad enough, but Martin hasn't done much else in the way of positives to gain our confidence.

Remember the promise to fix healthcare for a generation ? What has been done ?

I'm hoping a Conservative-NDP majority (as strange as that sounds) can work out some kind of economically frugal middle road that keeps the social safety net intact.

The Liberals have been in power for how long now ? 12 years ? There has been very little will to enact the big changes that have been going on elsewhere in the world.

Also, IMTrudeau said Harper should do less to please the religious minority that supports him. When the same sex legislation passes, it will be easy for Harper to walk away from that issue. The Liberals won't have anything left to stick on him with regards to intolerance etc.

EDITED TO ADD: Harper should wait for the inquiry to finish, which I understand is one month. I doubt the people will change their minds by then.

[daniel]

I didn't read all the posts, so maybe someone has already stated what I'm about to write.

For sure, the Conservatives have a camp that says they should pull the plug as soon as polls indicate they can win even a simple minority government. There's undoubtably another camp that says to wait until their popularity goes to the high 30s or 40 percentage to ensure a majority.

This will be all irrespective of the population wanting another election or not.

Ontario Tories of the Mike Harris government are considering running federally in the next election.

Once in, they'll find out that there's a deficit and that the previous government had been lying about the surpluses and balance budgets we have been having. It'll be a Common Sense Revolution for Canada in which budgets and programs will be slashed or cancelled citing the main financial culprits to be:

1) Gun registry;

2) Sponsorship scandal;

3) Governor General expenses;

4) Health Care

But like always, the deficit will grow under the Tories because they will implement several rounds of deep tax-cuts, balloon the military spending and will undoubtably reverse:

1) the decision for missile defence;

2) the National Daycare program;

3) Kyoto

4) Same Sex Marriage

Of course, the third option if not a minority or majority government from an election would be that the GG orders the sitting MPs to form another government without an election. That means the Conservatives will have look towards forming a coalition.

[kimmy]

EDITED TO ADD: Harper should wait for the inquiry to finish, which I understand is one month. I doubt the people will change their minds by then.

That's probably a reasonable compromise. Waiting to the end of the testimony lets people hear all the information; surely they don't need Gomery's analysis to tell them what it means.

-kimmy

[Michael Hardner]

1) Gun registry;

2) Sponsorship scandal;

3) Governor General expenses;

4) Health Care

But like always, the deficit will grow under the Tories because they will implement several rounds of deep tax-cuts, balloon the military spending and will undoubtably reverse:

1) the decision for missile defence;

2) the National Daycare program;

3) Kyoto

4) Same Sex Marriage

Daniel:

Whoever supports the Cons government won't allow drastic health care cuts, or the canning of Kyoto. SS Marriage is a done deal. Daycare never got to the drawing board, and everything else that you predicted could well happen.

As a left-of-centre poster (in the context of this board, this nation, this time etc) my advice to other LOC posters is to get yourself used to the idea that the next government will be conservative.

[daniel]

Daniel:

Whoever supports the Cons government won't allow drastic health care cuts, or the canning of Kyoto. SS Marriage is a done deal...

That would depend upon the scenario in which the Conservatives form their government. If it's a minority by either election or the GG instructing to form the government from sitting MPs, opposition will keep them in line.

But if they get a majority, watch out because anything goes.

[The Terrible Sweal]

As a left-of-centre poster (in the context of this board, this nation, this time etc) my advice to other LOC posters is to get yourself used to the idea that the next government will be conservative.

I don't see it. Who will elect them?

[I miss Reagan]

As a left-of-centre poster (in the context of this board, this nation, this time etc) my advice to other LOC posters is to get yourself used to the idea that the next government will be conservative.

I don't see it. Who will elect them?

I agree. I don't see what is different from last election. We knew they were corrupt then, we know it know. The only difference I see is media hype. no change