Will Bernier start new party?

[turningrite]

There's speculation today that Maxime Bernier could start a new political movement or party. If he does, at least some topics, including immigration and refugee policy, will become matters of public debate, thus breaking the consensus imposed by the current tri-party cabal in Ottawa. I think it's time for fresh air, and it's long overdue that public attitudes and concerns be considered regarding contentious matters. At the very least, a new political movement, should it draw considerable support, could pull other parties in the direction of reflecting broadly-held views in this country. Trudeau, you might just have real competition to contend with!

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-maxime-bernier-to-make-announcement-ahead-of-conservative-convention/

[capricorn]

There's also speculation he will switch to provincial politics. Max is scheduled to make a statement at 1 pm.

Interesting he is not at the Conservative party convention in Halifax but stayed back in Ottawa.

[scribblet]

Will wait for the press conference but it does seem he's breaking ranks.

[cannuck]

this is exactly how the NDP got elected in Alberta.  Splitting the right vote is a HUGE mistake.

[Argus]

If we had proportional rep I would probably vote for a new party Bernier starts, but given our current election system I think the only people who would be happy about it would be the Liberals and NDP.

[turningrite]

45 minutes ago, Argus said:

If we had proportional rep I would probably vote for a new party Bernier starts, but given our current election system I think the only people who would be happy about it would be the Liberals and NDP.

We'll see what he does at his press conference today. But if he forms a splinter group and is able to attract even 10% of potential voters it could prompt a merger attempt on the part of the CPC before next year's election where Bernier could have a huge impact on setting party policy. I suspect a large percentage of the party's rank-and-file membership agrees with the gist of his views on issues like immigration, refugees and multiculturalism. At this time, provided he intends to remain on the federal stage rather than jump to, say, the CAQ, he holds some very important cards. Let's see how he plays those cards if he chooses to keep his focus on Ottawa.

[Argus]

Well, apparently the answer is yes. He does intend to start a new party. This is unfortunate. As I said, if this were a proportionate rep system I'd be all for it. Given our current system the only  thing this new party can hope to do is split the vote and help the advocates of the very policies he claims to be against to succeed. Because of this it strikes me as a selfish and petulant move.  I hope he finds it hard getting any kind of funding, and doubt his new party will enjoy much success outside Quebec.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-maxime-bernier-to-make-announcement-ahead-of-conservative-convention/

[capricorn]

NEW CONSERVATIVE PARTY. I'm on board. Max was my first choice for leader. This news conference cements my choice. I'll be sending Max a hefty donation. In the meantime, resigning myself to another Trudeau victory in 2019.

[Argus]

Just now, capricorn said:

NEW CONSERVATIVE PARTY. I'm on board. Max was my first choice for leader. This news conference cements my choice. I'll be sending Max a hefty donation. In the meantime, resigning myself to another Trudeau victory in 2019.

And in every election thereafter if you and Max have their way.

[turningrite]

2 minutes ago, capricorn said:

NEW CONSERVATIVE PARTY. I'm on board. Max was my first choice for leader. This news conference cements my choice. I'll be sending Max a hefty donation. In the meantime, resigning myself to another Trudeau victory in 2019.

He's got my support. Don't count on a Trudeau victory in 2019. Bernier will pull support from all three conventional parties. Given political volatility in his home province, he could sweep the place, which at the very least would likely deny the Libs a majority. A minority parliament with a governing CPC-Bernier coalition might be just the right solution for Canada at this time. Putting issues like immigration and refugee policy and identity politics squarely in the electoral debate will in my opinion advance the integrity of Canadian democracy.

[capricorn]

6 minutes ago, Argus said:

And in every election thereafter if you and Max have their way.

I'm an optimist. I'm seeing this development as positive. As I said in another post, Scheer as PM would be Trudeau redux. That scenario makes me gag.

[turningrite]

Just now, capricorn said:

I'm an optimist. I'm seeing this development as positive. As I said in another post, Scheer as PM would be Trudeau redux. That scenario makes me gag.

I'm sure Scheer is a nice enough guy. But what does he represent that's substantially different from the Trudeau government's policy approach? Scheer might be willing to round off the rougher edges of the current regime's policies but isn't likely willing to boldly go where our conventional mainstream parties have refused to tread, or in other words, to promote rational populism. "Stay the course with a few tweaks" is not in my opinion what this country needs at this point in its history. At least if Canadians have a clear and obvious alternative at the ballot box we'll all have to accept the result if voters opt for the status quo, or a watered down version thereof.

[scribblet]

Trudeau was seen coming out of the House grinning from ear to ear, he knows this could destroy the party.   I agree with Bernier for the most part but after being called morally corrupt etc. why would we support him.    I hope Scheer gets something out of this, if nothing else that many people expect him to stand against Trudeau, not with him.   I don't think the country could survive another Trudeau term.

[betsy]

Bernier's position on supply management/trade, immigration is compatible with mine.   I'm interested.

Edited August 23, 2018 by betsy

[capricorn]

9 minutes ago, scribblet said:

Trudeau was seen coming out of the House grinning from ear to ear,

At least Trudeau had something genuine to grin about. As for Scheer he was grinning even as he was criticizing Bernier for "putting his ambitions before the party". Scheer does not exude confidence or genuine emotion.

[turningrite]

46 minutes ago, scribblet said:

Trudeau was seen coming out of the House grinning from ear to ear...

Maybe he'd just farted? Some find that amusing. Seriously, though, it's not uncommon for people to smirk or laugh when they're nervous. I believe it's seen as a mechanism for diffusing tension. Trudeau will now have to debate and defend some of his cherished but controversial policies in public. His angry outburst in Quebec last weekend suggests he won't enjoy this.

Edited August 23, 2018 by turningrite

[Argus]

1 hour ago, capricorn said:

I'm an optimist. I'm seeing this development as positive. As I said in another post, Scheer as PM would be Trudeau redux. That scenario makes me gag.

Scheer is not Trudeau by a long shot. The problem is the Conservative Party largely ignores its conservative base because they have nowhere else to go. I mean, are people concerned about immigration and refugees going to vote Liberal in protest? So they tuck those people safely in the 'won' column, and work to get others from the mainstream. And that means moving further to the left. You can complain about this strategy, and I do, but it's realistic. Opposing immigration, or even calling for lower numbers is extremely risky given the nature of our progressive media. I mean, just look at the reaction to Bernier for even daring to suggest there could be too much diversity, which, by inference only, was seen as perhaps questioning immigration. 

Okay, this would give them somewhere else to go. I concede the point. That might well have an impact on Conservative party policy on certain matters. But if Bernier actually succeeds in attracting large numbers of mostly conservative voters the only people who will be celebrating will be the Liberals. I guarantee you the people in the PMO are high-fiving each other, laughing, clapping at every mention of his name, and popping Champaign corks at this news. So you might want to consider if you ought to be celebrating too.

[Argus]

34 minutes ago, scribblet said:

Trudeau was seen coming out of the House grinning from ear to ear, he knows this could destroy the party.   I agree with Bernier for the most part but after being called morally corrupt etc. why would we support him.    I hope Scheer gets something out of this, if nothing else that many people expect him to stand against Trudeau, not with him.   I don't think the country could survive another Trudeau term.

I think Rempel put it best the other day when she asked Bernier if he'd rather have Scheer or Trudeau in power. Clearly he doesn't care enough to put the interest of the country ahead of his own.

[betsy]

12 minutes ago, Argus said:

I think Rempel put it best the other day when she asked Bernier if he'd rather have Scheer or Trudeau in power.

Meh.   In other words, there will be no more real conservatives!  What we'll be settling for will be lukewarm-conservative-liberal-lite - that will be the new "conservatives?"

What about the voice for REAL conservatives?  We'll just fade away?

 

 

Quote

Clearly he doesn't care enough to put the interest of the country ahead of his own.

Depends from what angle you're looking.  I could say the same thing about anyone who's pandering to political correctness.  I could understand a liberal going all politically-correct (that's in his dna).....but for someone who's supposed to be a conservative?  That doesn't compute. 

We conservatives know that political correctness is insanity - look at the mess we're in now!   So, looking at it from where I'm coming from - I'd say they don't care enough to put the interest of the country ahead of their own.

Edited August 23, 2018 by betsy

[turningrite]

15 minutes ago, Argus said:

Scheer is not Trudeau by a long shot. The problem is the Conservative Party largely ignores its conservative base because they have nowhere else to go. I mean, are people concerned about immigration and refugees going to vote Liberal in protest? So they tuck those people safely in the 'won' column, and work to get others from the mainstream. And that means moving further to the left. You can complain about this strategy, and I do, but it's realistic. Opposing immigration, or even calling for lower numbers is extremely risky given the nature of our progressive media. I mean, just look at the reaction to Bernier for even daring to suggest there could be too much diversity, which, by inference only, was seen as perhaps questioning immigration. 

Okay, this would give them somewhere else to go. I concede the point. That might well have an impact on Conservative party policy on certain matters. But if Bernier actually succeeds in attracting large numbers of mostly conservative voters the only people who will be celebrating will be the Liberals. I guarantee you the people in the PMO are high-fiving each other, laughing, clapping at every mention of his name, and popping Champaign corks at this news. So you might want to consider if you ought to be celebrating too.

Bernier's move sets the cat among the pigeons, so to speak. There are several possibilities as to how this might work out. There might be an attempt by Trudeau and his MSM acolytes to freeze Bernier out. But given the availability of Twitter and other social media coverage it's more difficult these days to manage controversy in this fashion. Bernier likely won't appeal only to grassroots CPC members but polling suggests his views on immigration, refugees, multiculturalism and even trade could draw supporters from Lib and NDP ranks as well. I suspect that if his movement quickly achieves double-digit support, mainly drawing away CPC supporters, a merger might be attempted in which Bernier would have considerable leverage to set the terms. If his movement zooms into contention with the two big mainstream parties, all bets will be off. For sure, it's too early to pop champagne corks, but this applies as well to supporters of all three major mainstream federal parties. As I said, the cat is now among the pigeons. Let's see where the feathers settle. It looks like Canadians might have a real choice in deciding on the country's future, which would be a huge change.

Edited August 23, 2018 by turningrite

[scribblet]

Now is a good time for Scheer to listen to the people and turn this around as they are at the convention now.    This is all playing into Trudeau's politics of division and name calling. 

[Argus]

18 minutes ago, turningrite said:

Bernier's move sets the cat among the pigeons, so to speak. There are several possibilities as to how this might work out. There might be an attempt by Trudeau and his MSM acolytes to freeze Bernier out. But given the availability of Twitter and other social media coverage it's more difficult these days to manage controversy in this fashion. Bernier likely won't appeal only to grassroots CPC members but polling suggests his views on immigration, refugees, multiculturalism and even trade could draw supporters from Lib and NDP ranks as well. I suspect that if his movement quickly achieves double-digit support, mainly drawing away CPC supporters, a merger might be attempted in which Bernier would have considerable leverage to set the terms.

Your scenario would have more chance of working were we not about a year from the next election. Under your scenario, support for him would just be starting to ramp up around then. It's not likely there'd be time for a merger, which leaves, under our present system, his party and the conservatives splitting the right of centre vote so the Liberals can come up the middle. This leaves the combined 'conservative' parties with likely far fewer seats than they would have had as one united party. See the 2000 election as a likely scenario, where the PC party got 12% of the vote and 12 seats, the Alliance took 66 seats with 25.9% , and the Liberals romped to victory with 172 and 40.9% of the vote.

Edited August 23, 2018 by Argus

[turningrite]

20 minutes ago, Argus said:

Your scenario would have more chance of working were we not about a year from the next election. Under your scenario, support for him would just be starting to ramp up around then. It's not likely there'd be time for a merger, which leaves, under our present system, his party and the conservatives splitting the right of centre vote so the Liberals can come up the middle. This leaves the combined 'conservative' parties with likely far fewer seats than they would have had as one united party. See the 2000 election as a likely scenario, where the PC party got 12% of the vote and 12 seats, the Alliance took 66 seats, and the Liberals romped to victory with 172.

I don't think the 2000 election presents a good example for comparison. The Alliance Party was mainly a regional party grounded in its Reform support in Western Canada and was too associated with social conservatism to appeal to a lot of moderate voters, while the BQ, which won 44 seats, was explicitly a regionally based party, fielding candidates only in Quebec. Bernier's new party is aimed at appealing to voters across the political spectrum and across Canada. I think there's a lot of fatigue with Trudeau's brand and the CPC under Scheer seems to be treading water while the NDP remains, well, listless, disconnected and hopeless. And the BQ has almost disappeared as a political force. There is no other party or movement in Canada that reflects pan-Canadian populist concerns on many issues and in this vacuum Bernier's group might appeal more to voters than many might assume to be the case. An article in yesterday's Globe and Mail indicated that Bernier retains strong grassroots support among CPC members. If there's a substantial movement of these supporters to Bernier's group in conjunction with disillusioned Lib and NDP voters, many of whom according to polling are receptive to Bernier's views, the Canadian political landscape could face a considerable shakeup. And the "none-of-the-above" voters who shun the traditional mainstream parties as being incorrigibly corrupt and/or disconnected from the public mood might at last have something new to support. The trick for Bernier at this point will be to avoid any association with social conservatism, the appeal to which sabotaged prior efforts to attract centre and centre-right voters to alternative parties.

Edited August 23, 2018 by turningrite

[capricorn]

37 minutes ago, Argus said:

Scheer is not Trudeau by a long shot. The problem is the Conservative Party largely ignores its conservative base because they have nowhere else to go. I mean, are people concerned about immigration and refugees going to vote Liberal in protest? So they tuck those people safely in the 'won' column, and work to get others from the mainstream. And that means moving further to the left. You can complain about this strategy, and I do, but it's realistic. Opposing immigration, or even calling for lower numbers is extremely risky given the nature of our progressive media. I mean, just look at the reaction to Bernier for even daring to suggest there could be too much diversity, which, by inference only, was seen as perhaps questioning immigration. 

Okay, this would give them somewhere else to go. I concede the point. That might well have an impact on Conservative party policy on certain matters. But if Bernier actually succeeds in attracting large numbers of mostly conservative voters the only people who will be celebrating will be the Liberals. I guarantee you the people in the PMO are high-fiving each other, laughing, clapping at every mention of his name, and popping Champaign corks at this news. So you might want to consider if you ought to be celebrating too.

You make good points Argus, although in my opinion in a convoluted way. Believe me, I'm far from celebrating at this stage. This breakaway conservative party is far from a fait accompli. Just as when the present party had growing pains, so would a nascent conservative minded party. Let's give it some time to either laud it or damn it.

[taxme]

3 hours ago, cannuck said:

this is exactly how the NDP got elected in Alberta.  Splitting the right vote is a HUGE mistake.

Exactly. And if Bernier does form a new conservative party I would hope that he would wait until after the next election. The conservative party could lose some important votes if he did that. It could mean another 4 years of Trudeau liberalism. That should end Canada once and for all. Canada will surely end up like some of the many shit hole countries that there are around the world. Just saying.