NAFTA negotiations.

[taxme]

On 8/2/2018 at 8:12 PM, paxamericana said:

You sound like a disgruntled canadian . You have no idea how amusing this is...you're feeding my inner troll.  

I think the heart of the problem with Canada as far as trade is concern is the protectionist policy it adopted for their agricultural industries, supply management etc... The same is true with France. The US should dominate the agriculture industries because we have more land and better capital investment for such business. France and Canada should focus on diversifying to other industries instead of agriculture. 

If Canada would go more capitalist like America rather than more socialist like Venezuela or Cuba this country would be better off today as socialism discourages people rather than excite them into creating new jobs and making plenty of money. Making money is good and not bad.The liberal/socialists believe that taking from the rich or middle class and giving to the poor is the way to go. No way, Jose. The way to go is the way immigrants did centuries ago who came to North America with nothing but the clothes on their backs and had to find work right away if they wanted to make it in Canada or America. There was no welfare or unemployment benefits like we have today. There is just too much money being blown on too many socialist programs and agendas that is bankrupting this country. Canada should be in the credit column and not in the debit column.

We need politicians who are ready to open up Canada plenty more than what we are seeing them do today. Too many jobs and big projects get shut down before they can get to started because thanks to a minority of foolish talking and thinking environmentalists and native Indians who are clueless as to how the world really turns and who are to blame for the massive unemployment and welfare rolls we have today in Canada. There are just too many rules and regulations that are killing people in business or who want to start a business. One has to envy those who do try to create work for themselves and others and go give it a try. We have marketing boards that keep prices high to benefit a few. This does not work for me. 

[turningrite]

19 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Sorry, but many times reality does not make sense.    Your expectations for logical and consistent fiscal and monetary policy in the United States will often be disappointed.  

When the next U.S. recession comes, as they always do, I will not be surprised in the least, or blame the decisions and choices made in Canada.

You seem to believe that irrational governance is and always will be the norm. I guess that's honest.

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, turningrite said:

You seem to believe that irrational governance is and always will be the norm. I guess that's honest.

 

Given past performance, why would I believe otherwise ?    Entropy is the norm, and circumstances often make rational action a secondary priority.

[paxamericana]

12 hours ago, turningrite said:

Well, I was reading the Economist on the weekend and its conclusions about the downstream impacts of Trump's economic and tax policies seem consistent with Stiglitz's, particularly where it believes that after a brief boom aided by the Trump/Republican tax cuts, American growth will quickly tail off mainly due to the negative effects of growing budgets deficits that will result from those same tax policies. The article argues that while the U.S. economy is currently growing and performing well this likely can't be sustained. Perhaps you might reconsider your position by listening to those who don't have a vested interest in promoting the administration?

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/04/what-americas-latest-gdp-figures-reveal

The article claim that Trump's growth rate is not sustainable if tariff take affect and that the deficit grows. While partially true, it has to be taken into account that tariff have a much smaller impact on the economy as a whole simply due to the fact that America does not export much, China tariff only like 35 Billion and plans to do another 40 while Canada only tariff 16B etc... that is only roughly .5 percent of the GDP. Second, the economy is estimated to grow around 3 plus percent by most estimate, third, there are other economic factors that allows for a reduction in the effect of tariff  such as trans-shipping and currency devaluation. While the US is starting to trend toward energy export, those item are currently not subject to tariffs. As long as the economy continues to grow and outpace the effects of tariff and tax cut then the deficit would not rise but decrease.

Also differing views on sustainable growth by CNBC (non partisan) 

"Joe LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis... 

With good policy, we can continue to generate better growth than we have seen, if you get this endogenous lift in productivity."

LaVorgna said his confidence is "fairly high" that 3 percent growth can continue.

'That's a 50 percent improvement from trend,' he said. 'It may not seem like a lot over a longer period of time, but 3 percent is a big deal. Is 3 sustainable? Yes.'"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/27/trump-goal-of-3-percent-economic-growth-is-achievable-and-sustainable.html

 

This is why I said predicting economics is like predicting the weather, it has part science and math but it also has something unpredictable and that's the human element. Data is only meaningful once someone interprets it. That's the job of all economist, interpret data. They make their best guesstimate with the data set that they have. Two people can view the same data and come up with totally different interpretations. Don't take their Nobel credential too seriously now *hint hint wink wink.

Edited August 6, 2018 by paxamericana

[bush_cheney2004]

Trudeau is getting desperate on NAFTA...now trying to brand any Canadian actions not pre-approved as "disloyal"....independent minded folk should just tell Trudeau to kiss their asses.

 

Quote

The Liberals' criticism of Mr. McCauley’s meeting is ironic because they once called on all players – unions, CEOs, mayors, premiers and political opponents – to lobby American counterparts on NAFTA. That effort has been influential. Now Mr. McCauley’s unsupervised chat is deemed disloyal.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-government-quick-to-brand-any-deviation-from-nafta-negotiating/

 

[Zeitgeist]

I realize this is off topic, but I want to warn you that you are being seriously manipulated by disinformation.  There’s serious Russian disinformation that will make it very hard for you to get accurate information.  Be careful. Take note of the ads, pop ups and bogus headlines on this forum and other fora.  It’s very pervasive and few are calling it out.  It’s beyond Trump at this point.  You are being manipulated.  I don’t mean to sound melodramatic, but just be sure you have a good sense about the sources of information.

Edited August 8, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

33 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

I realize this is off topic, but I want to warn you that you are being seriously manipulated by disinformation.  There’s serious Russian disinformation that will make it very hard for you to get accurate information.  Be careful. Take note of the ads, pop ups and bogus headlines on this forum and other fora.  It’s very pervasive and few are calling it out.  It’s beyond Trump at this point.  You are being manipulated.  I don’t mean to sound melodramatic, but just be sure you have a good sense about the sources of information.

 

No, I am not being "manipulated".   I don't get ads, pop up or otherwise on this site (hosted in the USA).    Be smarter than your web browser. 

I want the USA to leave NAFTA and I don't need Russians to convince me.

 

[Zeitgeist]

bush_cheney2004, I don't know why you put so much time and energy into bashing Canada, a country that you want the U.S. to mistreat.  Either you're on some clandestine U.S. agency payroll or you have a personal issue with Canada.  If it's the latter, the best thing you can do to show your disregard for Canada is stop discussing it, because you have nothing good to say.  The disinformation out there is real and it's not just in the matter surrounding the site; it's in many of the posts.  Fake Canadian soldiers, fake Canadian anti-tax crusaders.  There had been persuasion in the past, but at least it was mostly up front in the mainstream media.  Now I see pro-Trumpo-fascist social media campaigns across a host of topics, from trade to Trump's IQ.  I can't believe you've let this happen.  When I worked in Russia I remember the Russian bravado, comments like, "Those Americans would never win a war with us.  They're too comfortable and lazy."  Madeleine Albright is 110% right in sounding the alarm about fascism.  Sad what's been allowed to take place.

[bush_cheney2004]

1 hour ago, Zeitgeist said:

bush_cheney2004, I don't know why you put so much time and energy into bashing Canada, a country that you want the U.S. to mistreat.  Either you're on some clandestine U.S. agency payroll or you have a personal issue with Canada.  If it's the latter, the best thing you can do to show your disregard for Canada is stop discussing it, because you have nothing good to say. 

 

You are new here and perhaps do not understand how the game is played.   My job is to be the "ugly American" that some very smug  Canadians hate while forcing them to confront Canada's own history and complicity with American hegemony.    It is not personal at all...obviously many Canadians get along with the USA just fine, to the point of wintering there each year and emigrating for good.

 

Quote

The disinformation out there is real and it's not just in the matter surrounding the site; it's in many of the posts.  Fake Canadian soldiers, fake Canadian anti-tax crusaders.  There had been persuasion in the past, but at least it was mostly up front in the mainstream media.  Now I see pro-Trumpo-fascist social media campaigns across a host of topics, from trade to Trump's IQ.  I can't believe you've let this happen.  When I worked in Russia I remember the Russian bravado, comments like, "Those Americans would never win a war with us.  They're too comfortable and lazy."  Madeleine Albright is 110% right in sounding the alarm about fascism.  Sad what's been allowed to take place.

 

Your fears are your own...please do not project them on to me or others.   I have been dealing with the pointy end of Soviets/Russians since 1975 and the height of the Cold War.

NAFTA is the topic....not Russians....who did not take away millions of American jobs.

Edited August 8, 2018 by bush_cheney2004

[Zeitgeist]

The U.S. runs a trade surplus with Canada.

[bush_cheney2004]

8 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

The U.S. runs a trade surplus with Canada.

 

...while Canada dumps steel, lumber, and other commodities in the U.S., steals American IP,  and sends thousands of scab workers to take American jobs.

[Zeitgeist]

Canada does a lot of logging.  It doesn't dump lumber or any other commodities, nor does it steal American IP.  Please, we respect copyright and patent protections in Canada.  Stop talking about Canada as if it doesn't respect rule of law, especially when your own federal leader is trying to work around it.  Scab workers...Right, you're the one who champions Right to Work legislation that undermines the formation of unions and minimum wages.  Unions have had their excesses, but they've also raised wages and improved labour standards for all workers, and I'm not a liberal saying this.  What American jobs were taken?  Funny, the rules can never be stacked enough in your favour.  Our unemployment rate is higher than in the U.S. and you sell more into Canada than the reverse.  Your comments don't fool anyone with a semblance of consideration for fairness, but that's not what it's about for you, is it?  Oh, and "Canadian" taxme, I don't know who is writing your posts, but they're so inconsistent and obviously antithetical to Canadian interests.

[bush_cheney2004]

6 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Canada does a lot of logging.  It doesn't dump lumber or any other commodities, nor does it steal American IP.  Please, we respect copyright and patent protections in Canada.  Stop talking about Canada as if it doesn't respect rule of law,

 

Yes...we know...Canada wants to cut down every old growth forest and dump raw logs on the market.    Canadians routinely steal copyrighted American intellectual property, bragging how easy it is to do it (music, film, television, pharma, etc.). 

Canada doesn't even respect the rule of law in Saudi Arabia, let alone the United States.

Go find another country to dump all those dead trees and unemployed workers on.

 

[Zeitgeist]

What unemployed workers are we dumping?  Last I checked we're all paying similar broadcasting fees and licensing fees to Americans for the same or similar products, though I do remember seeing all those G Boxes for sale in the Fort Myers Florida Flea Market.  We're buying the same proprietary Apple shit as you are.  I don't know where you get your info, but your characterization of Canada is so off the mark.  Our music and media artists work within the same systems.  With regard to pharmaceuticals, a clear sore point for you, Canada is able to benefit from bulk purchases because of its universal health care system and to bargain with companies that want to sell into the market.  There are also variations of drugs that provide similar treatment to some of the bigger brands, but we still face some very catastrophic drug costs.  Again, Americans have come to Canada to buy these drugs and have called on your government to take similar approaches, but you've shut down Obamacare and attempts to expand it.  You don't want to hear about other approaches, you specifically bush_cheney2004.

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, Zeitgeist said:

What unemployed workers are we dumping? 

 

There are thousands of Canadians and other foreign nationals using Canada (and Mexico) as a NAFTA work visa gateway to the United States.

Why can't these people find jobs in Canada ?

The CRTC mandates carriage of American (4 + 1) broadcast networks as a matter of policy without any compensation.

Piracy and copyright infringement are rampant in Canada.

 

[Zeitgeist]

You're serious aren't you?  Canadians need Green Cards to work in the U.S. just like any other foreigner.  By the way, we're ready any time you want to help stem the tide of migrants from the U.S..  Funny, I didn't think I'd see a Mexico/U.S. type border crisis on the Canada/U.S. border in my lifetime, though I had a feeling it would happen eventually when the shit really started to hit the fan down there and the people at the margins started to flee to Canada, which is happening right now.  Piracy and copyright infringement are no more a problem in Canada than they are in the U.S.  If anything, we pay a higher price for media because our CRTC is quite strict about representing minority cultures in media content.

[bush_cheney2004]

Just now, Zeitgeist said:

You're serious aren't you?  Canadians need Green Cards to work in the U.S. just like any other foreigner.

 

No they don't...lots of Canadians work in the U.S., taking American jobs and driving wages down through NAFTA TN visas.

Quote

The nonimmigrant NAFTA Professional (TN) visa allows citizens of Canada and Mexico, as NAFTA professionals, to work in the United States in prearranged business activities for U.S. or foreign employers.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/employment/visas-canadian-mexican-nafta-professional-workers.html

 

...another reason why NAFTA sucks !

[Zeitgeist]

Well you're talking about the provision that allows companies that do business in NAFTA countries to move workers between offices.  Most of the head offices of these companies are in the U.S., but removing NAFTA will mean having more head offices in Canada and Mexico, which means more senior managerial and board of director jobs in Canada in Mexico.  There once was a brain drain phenomenon when Canada had mismanaged its finances in the 90's and the economy was underperforming.  In recent years, when Canada was leading the G7 for growth and then under Trump's travel ban, there has arguably been a brain drain in the other direction and especially in terms of drawing international talent. 

[bush_cheney2004]

Just now, Zeitgeist said:

Well you're talking about the provision that allows companies that do business in NAFTA countries to move workers between offices.  Most of the head offices of these companies are in the U.S., but removing NAFTA will mean having more head offices in Canada and Mexico, which means more senior managerial and board of director jobs in Canada in Mexico.  There once was a brain drain phenomenon when Canada had mismanaged its finances in the 90's and the economy was underperforming.  In recent years, when Canada was leading the G7 for growth and then under Trump's travel ban, there has arguably been a brain drain in the other direction and especially in terms of drawing international talent. 

 

No, that is not the case at all.   Canadians and Mexicans can work in the USA as "NAFTA professionals" without any previous relationship with a U.S. owned employer.

Why can't these people find jobs in Canada or Mexico ?   Why are so many still working in the U.S. legally and illegally ?

What is the problem ?

[Zeitgeist]

WTF are you talking about?  I don't know of any Canadians working illegally in the U.S..  I know of some Canadians who have worked in or moved to the U.S. and I know some Americans who have worked in or moved to Canada.  The migrant problem from the U.S. along our border is a current and pressing problem.  Many of these migrants are in shelters and looking for work, but there are tremendous costs in the processing and examination of these cases.

Edited August 9, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

6 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

WTF are you talking about?  I don't know of any Canadians working illegally in the U.S..  I know of some Canadians who have worked in or moved to the U.S. and I know some Americans who have worked in or moved to Canada.  The migrant problem from the U.S. along our border is a current and pressing problem.  Many of these migrants are in shelters and looking for work, but there are tremendous costs in the processing and examination of these cases.

 

I really don't care...illegals are illegals.  All I know it that NAFTA opened the employment gates to Canadian and Mexican "professionals" who can't/won't find work in their own countries.   This impacted American workers and drove wages down.

...and the reason is that there is far more opportunity in the United States than in Canada or Mexico.

 

[Zeitgeist]

There is a huge difference between Canada and Mexico, first of all.  We have a strong and diverse economy and a highly educated workforce in Canada, as well as a large middle class.  One of the compromises Canada made in joining NAFTA, to its detriment, was accepting that many large companies that maintained national head offices in Canada would no longer need to do so, as Canada, the U.S., and Mexico would be treated as a single domestic market.  Canada has faced exactly the same manufacturing challenges as the U.S. in terms of the offshoring to low-cost labour jurisdictions such as China and Mexico.  We're also all facing the challenge of automation and the very real challenge that at some point the tech feedback systems that we've created could very well end up running the show for us all, as they know us better than we know ourselves, something to monitor carefully.  Read Hariri on this.  So beating up on Mexico and China will not bring back all the jobs.  The wiser move is to bring higher labour, environmental, and human rights standards to trade agreements, so that the playing field is more level in terms of attracting workers by labour cost. 

These lower cost jurisdictions will have to make the necessary investments to raise their standard of living closer to ours.  Attracting more jobs does help them do this.  That was actually the original hope for globalization, that poorer developing countries would see improved living standards and eventually become markets for the goods of the already developed countries, a win-win.  This is why simply tearing up NAFTA and shitting all over the WTO and other international rules-based organizations is bad for everyone.  The best solution is reform.  This isn't elitist globalist rhetoric; this is sound economics.  Ideally, all countries will eventually have large middles classes, enforced rule of law, truly representational government, constitutional protections for human rights, and healthy/sustainable environmental and labour laws.  This is the big picture we should all be fighting for, instead of this win-lose mentality of beating down whomever you think you can beat, taking as much as you can get, and whatever happens to the planet or anyone outside my tribe is not my problem, until one day of course it is. 

Edited August 9, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

13 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

There is a huge difference between Canada and Mexico, first of all. 

 

NAFTA makes no such distinction, as both Canada and Mexico desperately try to preserve gains made for access to the world's largest economy and American capital investment.

How many Canadian or Mexican owned auto assembly plants have been built in the United States ?

...and illegals are still illegals, whether they come from Mexico, Canada, or the United States.

The U.S. should leave NAFTA in favour of bilateral trade deals....Canada and Mexico can stay in NAFTA as they please.

[Zeitgeist]

NAFTA received very mixed reviews upon implementation in Canada, but the conservative argument was that it codified the right aspirations: increased exchange of goods, services, and ideas to enhance the growth and progress of all countries involved.  It's that goal that was important, whether it came in the form of NAFTA or another agreement.  The deal created growth in all three countries, but each country made concessions.  The deal always had many naysayers in Canada, but the consensus among trade experts is that lowering trade barriers is good, understanding that there need to be protections for vulnerable sectors like farming.  We all know you continually harp on, bush_cheney2004, about how much more everyone else needs America than America needs other countries, and there is nothing to prevent the U.S. from pursuing isolationist policies and putting up trade barriers.  Countries would adjust by reducing trade with the U.S.  Canada is pursuing open markets and the free exchange of goods and services with trading partners.  Canada has been very active on this file, from CETA to TPP.  CETA is provisionally underway. 

You talk about various trade barriers in Canada, knowing full well about the U.S.'s softwood lumber duties, its protectionism against Bombardier, its subsidies of farmers, its refusal to appoint judges to the WTO, and the recent steel and aluminum tariffs set up against multiple trading partners, including Canada which has balanced trade with the U.S..  You'll keep citing supply management, as though that was ever about international trade.  Half of Canadians don't care about supply management, but the point is, it's a domestic system that was set up to protect the livelihood of small farmers long before NAFTA.  I do think that Mexico is better off leaning on non-U.S. trading partners right now, because the U.S. is going to push them in a bilateral deal, as they will push Canada, Europe, U.K....  It doesn't matter.  Any new trade deal with Canada must be fair or don't bother proposing it.  I think all grievances can be ironed out if reasonable give and take carries the day, but Canada won't take a bad deal.  It will wait out unfair traders and let NAFTA lapse if need be, which puts us back where we were pre-NAFTA.  Not a sky is falling scenario.  If Trump's negotiators threaten and intimidate countries into bad deals, that will be public record for posterity to reference in future dealings with the U.S..  It certainly won't inspire followers.  I come back to the same questions:  What kind of world do you want to live in?  What do you want your country to stand for? 

Maybe also worth considering that the U.S. economy has been doing very well.  Your cries of unfair trade with Canada ring pretty hollow. 

[bush_cheney2004]

41 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

  I come back to the same questions:  What kind of world do you want to live in?  What do you want your country to stand for? 

Maybe also worth considering that the U.S. economy has been doing very well.  Your cries of unfair trade with Canada ring pretty hollow. 

 

More questions but no answers:

How many auto/truck assembly plants have Canada and Mexico built in the United States ?

NAFTA is obsolete and has done more harm than  good for American (and Canadian) workers.

Canada is far more dependent on the U.S. economy, so here is the chance to reduce such dependence and influence.