Fossil fuel vehicles gone in 8 years

[jacee]

http://business.financialpost.com/transportation/fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-in-twin-death-spiral-for-big-oil-and-big-autos-says-study-that-shocking-the-industry/wcm/396f52ad-50ca-40f7-a481-eaa355f44a7f

Wow, it's happening faster and faster!

Big oil and big autos ... both going down.

 

[Boges]

No they won't.

This is less a study than some dude's environmental wet dream. 

Someone buys a new combustion engined car today, in 8 years that car will be banned? Gimme a break!

Also the only reason you can even get EVs that are close to $30,000 is because of huge government subsidies. Will that continue?

Edited July 13, 2017 by Boges

[jacee]

2 hours ago, Boges said:

No they won't.

This is less a study than some dude's environmental wet dream. 

Someone buys a new combustion engined car today, in 8 years that car will be banned? Gimme a break!

Also the only reason you can even get EVs that are close to $30,000 is because of huge government subsidies. Will that continue?

It doesn't say banned.

It says none will be sold, I assume meaning no new ones will be manufactured because no one will want to buy them.

Supply and demand.

It's changing very quickly now.

Investment and purchase of fossil fuels is tanking very fast.

Edited July 13, 2017 by jacee

[Boges]

38 minutes ago, jacee said:

It doesn't say banned.

It says none will be sold, I assume meaning no new ones will be manufactured because no one will want to buy them.

Supply and demand.

It's changing very quickly now.

Investment and purchase of fossil fuels is tanking very fast.

Cite that it's changing quickly? EV's still make a very tiny percentage of the total car market. 

I think EV's will work as commuter cars within cities assuming they can drop in price without a huge government subsidy. 

But that technology can't replace long haul trucks. Or cars that can take you across a country without long stops for re-charging.

It's funny. 10 years ago environmentalists were talking about peak oil. Now people think Oil will be useless soon. Cheap oil actually helps the IC engine. Governments are trying to make oil artificially more expensive with Carbon taxes actually. 

 

Edited July 13, 2017 by Boges

[sharkman]

Last Christmas, my wife and I drove from Calgary to Kamloops while travelling home.  Rogers Pass was a mess, and they actually closed it down a while after we got through.  So we were going quite slow at times, speeding up to slow down, etc.  Lots of hills to climb, an awful trip when trying to get good gas mileage.  In a 2014 4 cyl Altima, we drove the 627 km using a little over a 1/2 tank of gas.  Our consumption was 6.1 litres per 100 kms.  This is a large mid size car.  Internal combustion vehicles aren't going anywhere.

[jacee]

56 minutes ago, sharkman said:

Last Christmas, my wife and I drove from Calgary to Kamloops while travelling home.  Rogers Pass was a mess, and they actually closed it down a while after we got through.  So we were going quite slow at times, speeding up to slow down, etc.  Lots of hills to climb, an awful trip when trying to get good gas mileage.  In a 2014 4 cyl Altima, we drove the 627 km using a little over a 1/2 tank of gas.  Our consumption was 6.1 litres per 100 kms.  This is a large mid size car.  Internal combustion vehicles aren't going anywhere.

Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.

Never say never.

 “It was such a fundamentally different technology that came in, so there was no way to use the old technology to meet the challenge.”

http://www.economist.com/node/21542796

[Hydraboss]

Oh, that little story is frickin hilarious....from back in May (I KNEW I had heard that crap before).  This guy has absolutely nothing to back up his assumptions.  Zero.  I could just as easily write:

"Peak oil will arrive in 2122 at 3 billion bpd.  The spread of cheap cars will ensure that Ethiopia will become the country with the highest car per person ratio and the price of crude oil will be steady at $75US/barrel as demand increases, ensuring that conventional and non-conventional extraction methods are used to their fullest degree.  Oil exploration will become the single largest employment industry accounting for over 89% of all employees worldwide.  EV batteries will be a thing of the past as consumers largely abandon the unsuccessful technology introduced this century.  With Tesla's value falling rapidly, Nintendo will purchase all of the trademarked technology for its next generation of handheld games that only need to be charged once per year.  After realizing that carbon dioxide emissions have actually exponentially increased food production and opened areas of the planet to conventional harvest practices, government subsidies will be created to encourage people to use as much oil and oil byproducts as possible."

Now wasn't that fun?

[jacee]

The electric drive-train is so much more powerful. The gasoline and diesel cars cannot possibly compete,” Seba said. The parallel is what happened to film cameras – and to Kodak – once digital rivals hit the market. It was swift and brutal. “You can’t compete with zero marginal costs,” he said.

[Hydraboss]

And where, pray tell, are those electric drive trains getting their electricity from?  The Electricity Fairy?  And how can diesel trains not "possibly complete"?  In what regard can they not compete?  Torque?  Emissions?  Noise level?  They are far, far superior when used in areas outside of urban/suburban centers since diesel is portable and burns no matter what - electricity can discharge if stored (batteries) or diminish over distances (it electric lines or rails are used).  Want to get a train stranded in the mountains?  Send an electric one.

Sorry but Seba is a complete flake who is just trying to get published....in anything....even a newspaper.  Nothing more than an eco-evangelist it seems.  He's dreaming and his writing reads like a 1960's fortune teller at a county fair.  He points to no hard data in his assumptions and that this is just daydreaming is exceedingly obvious.

[Omni]

26 minutes ago, Hydraboss said:

And where, pray tell, are those electric drive trains getting their electricity from?  The Electricity Fairy?  And how can diesel trains not "possibly complete"?  In what regard can they not compete?  Torque?  Emissions?  Noise level?  They are far, far superior when used in areas outside of urban/suburban centers since diesel is portable and burns no matter what - electricity can discharge if stored (batteries) or diminish over distances (it electric lines or rails are used).  Want to get a train stranded in the mountains?  Send an electric one.

Sorry but Seba is a complete flake who is just trying to get published....in anything....even a newspaper.  Nothing more than an eco-evangelist it seems.  He's dreaming and his writing reads like a 1960's fortune teller at a county fair.  He points to no hard data in his assumptions and that this is just daydreaming is exceedingly obvious.

Electric trains work pretty well in Japan. Can't see why not here.

[Moonlight Graham]

This is a far-fetched theory.

[jacee]

5 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

This is a far-fetched theory.

Do you understand 'critical mass'?

We are there.

Fossil fuels just aren't popular anymore, out of favour.

People are seeking out alternatives for transportation and for investment.

It is happening very quickly now, and the alternative technology is developing very quickly too.

People once thought fossil fuel vehicles were a far fetched theory too, and would never replace horses.

People once thought airplanes were a far fetched theory too.

Need I go on? 

Edited July 14, 2017 by jacee

[capricorn]

14 minutes ago, jacee said:

Fossil fuels just aren't popular anymore, out of favour.

Perhaps they are with the crowd you hang out with. But the average Joe still likes his fossil fuel driven vehicle.

[jacee]

5 minutes ago, capricorn said:

Perhaps they are with the crowd you hang out with. But the average Joe still likes his fossil fuel driven vehicle.

And they can enjoy it as long as it lasts and the gas pumps and maintenance are available. Some people kept enjoying their horses and buggies for a while too. A few still do. 

What the article is suggesting is that in 8 years, there won't be any new fossil fuel vehicles produced, because the technology is improving very quickly now and that's where the demand is.

 

Edited July 14, 2017 by jacee

[Moonlight Graham]

26 minutes ago, jacee said:

Do you understand 'critical mass'?

We are there.

Fossil fuels just aren't popular anymore, out of favour.

People are seeking out alternatives for transportation and for investment.

It is happening very quickly now, and the alternative technology is developing very quickly too.

People once thought fossil fuel vehicles were a far fetched theory too, and would never replace horses.

People once thought airplanes were a far fetched theory too.

Need I go on? 

i don't see critical mass.  I don't know anyone personally who owns an electric.  I'd like electric cars to be great and take over because they're much cleaner & politically better for us but until i see it happen it's still just a theory. 

[capricorn]

Just now, jacee said:

What the article is suggesting is that in 8 years, there won't be any new fossil fuel vehicles produced, because the technology is improving very quickly now and that's where the demand is.

8 years is rather ambitious. And I question the claim that the demand today is for EVs. Consumers are not generally that forward thinking. They first have to be convinced that the change is for their best interest.

[jacee]

I think we will all be surprised at how quickly this happens.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, jacee said:

Do you understand 'critical mass'?

We are there.

Fossil fuels just aren't popular anymore, out of favour.

People are seeking out alternatives for transportation and for investment.

It is happening very quickly now, and the alternative technology is developing very quickly too.

People once thought fossil fuel vehicles were a far fetched theory too, and would never replace horses.

People once thought airplanes were a far fetched theory too.

Need I go on? 

People thought time travel was far fetched.

I'm 60, and I'll still be driving a gasoline powered car when I shuffle off. 

That's me driving it.  It won't be driving itself.

[jacee]

2 hours ago, bcsapper said:

People thought time travel was far fetched.

I'm 60, and I'll still be driving a gasoline powered car when I shuffle off. 

That's me driving it.  It won't be driving itself.

How's your horse & buggy?

Still got it too? 

[Guest]

F150. Aluminum, too. Very modern. Of course, it's a work truck, but still. 

Eight years?  Wanna buy a bridge?

[overthere]

On 7/13/2017 at 7:20 AM, jacee said:

http://business.financialpost.com/transportation/fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-in-twin-death-spiral-for-big-oil-and-big-autos-says-study-that-shocking-the-industry/wcm/396f52ad-50ca-40f7-a481-eaa355f44a7f

Wow, it's happening faster and faster!

Big oil and big autos ... both going down.

 

I'll give you $20 for your car right now.  You don't want to get caught holding that bag, do you?  You can thank me later.

[jacee]

3 hours ago, overthere said:

I'll give you $20 for your car right now.  You don't want to get caught holding that bag, do you?  You can thank me later.

Done.

Oh wait ... I don't have one. 

[Guest]

34 minutes ago, jacee said:

Done.

Oh wait ... I don't have one. 

I daresay it's not uncommon for someone to consider their own situation when looking at a much larger issue. 

[jacee]

25 minutes ago, bcsapper said:

I daresay it's not uncommon for someone to consider their own situation when looking at a much larger issue. 

I understand that my grocery store, bus, drug store, entertainment and everything I need are within a 5-10 min walk for me, so yes my situation is different than many ... not because I live in a city though: My small town childhood was the same.

I also know that living in a city, it often feels like there's little oxygen, not because of pollution per se - cars pollute much less these days, but internal combustion still eats up a lot of oxygen.

There is a real need for EV's in cities, and banning internal combustion engines within city limits. Right now would be good.

The car culture suits some, but I disliked living in the country because- what's the point! I spent much of my life in the car!

Edited July 15, 2017 by jacee

[Guest]

Just now, jacee said:

I understand that my grocery store, bus, drug store, entertainment and everything I need are within a 5-10 min walk for me, so yes my situation is different than many ... not because I live in a city though: My small town childhood was the same.

I also know that living in a city, it often feels like there's little oxygen, not because of pollution per se - cars pollute much less these days, but internal combustion still eats up a lot of oxygen.

There is a real need for EV's in cities, and banning internal combustion engines within city limits. Right now would be good.

 

It would not be good.  It would be catastrophic.