bush_cheney2004 Posted June 27, 2016 Report Posted June 27, 2016 (edited) Okay...the expected Brexit drama is well underway and there is opportunity during the big sell off...financials have been hit the hardest. Let's discuss investment opportunities resulting from the political and economic uncertainty caused by Brexit, and the risk of a follow on Dexit, Frexit, or Spexit. Short term Brexit plays will be easier than predicting the very negative impact of a longer term EU collapse. The first obvious notion is a British Pound ETF, like FXB: https://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AqZSGX4pX3Qmue5ju79mQAonv7gF?uhb=uhb2&fr=uh3_finance_vert_gs&type=2button&s=FXB The British Pound had already been beat up since January, and is now at a 30 year low vs. USD. Time to make some money folks ! Edited June 27, 2016 by bush_cheney2004 Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Bryan Posted June 27, 2016 Report Posted June 27, 2016 Let's discuss investment opportunities resulting from the political and economic uncertainty caused by Brexit, and the risk of a follow on Dexit, Frexit, or Spexit. Short term Brexit plays will be easier than predicting the very negative impact of a longer term EU collapse. Lots of investment opportunities in a possible Texit too. Quote
eyeball Posted June 27, 2016 Report Posted June 27, 2016 Texas is leaving? Quote A government without public oversight is like a nuclear plant without lead shielding.
msj Posted June 27, 2016 Report Posted June 27, 2016 So, specifically, are you shorting the pound or waiting for it to settle and looking for a rebound? As a long term investor I am watching European banks and should EUFN settle in below $11.83 then I will being to accumulate. Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 27, 2016 Author Report Posted June 27, 2016 So, specifically, are you shorting the pound or waiting for it to settle and looking for a rebound? I am waiting for an entry point to buy before the expected rebound. Technicals had already bottomed before the Brexit vote...pound was a poor performer all year. Banking and financial stocks are also ripe per your observation. Until the actual exit plan is formalized, uncertainty will continue. The EU will strive to contain the exit contagion with more helicopter money. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 27, 2016 Author Report Posted June 27, 2016 Texas is leaving? If you mean the band Texas (from Glasglow), the answer is yes. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
August1991 Posted June 27, 2016 Report Posted June 27, 2016 (edited) Okay...the expected Brexit drama is well underway and there is opportunity during the big sell off...financials have been hit the hardest. Let's discuss investment opportunities resulting from the political and economic uncertainty caused by Brexit... I'm abroad, in a different time zone, and I looked at the numbers. In general, I don't time the market. But sometimes, I do. This time is no different from my general view. ====== The Western (Leftist) MSM is making a big deal of this. It's not. As they say, this is not even a "two sigma event". Edited June 27, 2016 by August1991 Quote
msj Posted June 27, 2016 Report Posted June 27, 2016 (edited) The Western (Leftist) MSM is making a big deal of this. It's not. As they say, this is not even a "two sigma event". The pound is more than a two sigma event. More like 15: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClvQTgNUoAAYs7a.jpg Edited June 27, 2016 by msj Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 27, 2016 Author Report Posted June 27, 2016 I'm abroad, in a different time zone, and I looked at the numbers. In general, I don't time the market. But sometimes, I do. This time is no different from my general view. I love to time the market....challenge is that you have to be right...twice. Brexit in and of itself may not be a bear market event, but the prospect of further EU collapse could be enough to send markets plummeting further. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
August1991 Posted June 28, 2016 Report Posted June 28, 2016 The pound is more than a two sigma event. More like 15: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClvQTgNUoAAYs7a.jpg msj, if you want to play in currency - go ahead. === I looked at the FTSE in Cdn terms and its low - but not 5 yr low. Still, it's a buy. Quote
August1991 Posted June 28, 2016 Report Posted June 28, 2016 (edited) I love to time the market.... Time the market? A fool's game. It's better to go to Las Vegas... Edited June 28, 2016 by August1991 Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 28, 2016 Author Report Posted June 28, 2016 Time the market? A fool's game. It's better to go to Las Vegas... I have reaped far greater rewards by timing the market than by gambling in Las Vegas. With Brexit one can gamble with house money. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Bonam Posted June 28, 2016 Report Posted June 28, 2016 I don't generally "time the market", but what I do do is invest new capital on the dips. I've found this to generate a slightly better return than simply investing a fixed amount on a periodic basis. The S&P500 is only down about 5% so far due to Brexit, from the recent peak, not meeting my threshold of a 10% decline to start putting more money in. Sadly, I don't have any capital to invest anyway, as I just bought a house... Quote
msj Posted June 28, 2016 Report Posted June 28, 2016 I like this story about Jesse Livermore who shorted Union Pacific Railway prior to he San Francisco earthquake and fires in 1906. Made a ton of money shorting it. Then turned around and went long and made even more money. Who knows, future returns will vary.... http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/06/27/one-hundred-and-ten-years-ago/ Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
?Impact Posted June 28, 2016 Report Posted June 28, 2016 (edited) what I do do is invest new capital on the dips That is a great strategy, the only problem I have found is conjuring up that new capital just in time for the dips. Edited June 28, 2016 by ?Impact Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 28, 2016 Author Report Posted June 28, 2016 I went long today on a few U.S. banking stocks that were oversold even before the Brexit vote, and discounted after. Dividends are nice too. Keep some powder dry (new capital) for investment opportunities that come along. Pound has stabilized today, but may go as low as $1.20 USD. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
August1991 Posted June 29, 2016 Report Posted June 29, 2016 (edited) I have reaped far greater rewards by timing the market than by gambling in Las Vegas. With Brexit one can gamble with house money. b_c, speculative/arbitrage profits are earned in specific markets. You can possibly "time the market" if you "know" the specific market more than others. (eg. My brother-in-law is a real estate agent and he knows parts of the Laval market very well - far more than me.) ===== If b_c, you think that you know (more than others) what effect "Brexit" will have on any specific market, good luck in getting rich on your knowledge! Edited June 29, 2016 by August1991 Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 30, 2016 Author Report Posted June 30, 2016 b_c, speculative/arbitrage profits are earned in specific markets. You can possibly "time the market" if you "know" the specific market more than others. (eg. My brother-in-law is a real estate agent and he knows parts of the Laval market very well - far more than me.) Specific knowledge is helpful, but not necessary to take advantage of blatant overselling and panic, whether from global events (war/terrorism), capital market meltdowns (2008), or other "capitulation" (recession). My mutual fund management firms actually cap the number of transfers and conversions I am permitted each quarter/year to discourage "timing the market" with defensive sideline parking and offensive buying at the bottom of cycles. E*Trade is much more flexible in this regard, but fees are higher. If b_c, you think that you know (more than others) what effect "Brexit" will have on any specific market, good luck in getting rich on your knowledge! As stated earlier, my objective is not to become rich. I only need to preserve/protect retirement assets from inflation and tax liabilities when added to pension income. Brexit is proving to be a minor fart in the wind, but I will track pound sterling as it goes lower for a buying opportunity. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
SpankyMcFarland Posted June 30, 2016 Report Posted June 30, 2016 (edited) What about Britain's trade deficit? Doesn't that point to an already overvalued currency? I have made a small amount of money from some rapidly declining stocks, e.g. Nortel, Irish banks, by pure luck (a similar strategy came a cropper with Air Canada). In neither case was I aware of the scale of 'creative accounting' going on. My big fear with Brexit is contagion. If the EU begins to break up, we would be in the locale formerly known as Queer Street. Edited June 30, 2016 by SpankyMcFarland Quote
August1991 Posted June 30, 2016 Report Posted June 30, 2016 .... take advantage of blatant overselling and panic.... If it's blatant, then how can you take advantage of it? Or as Yogi Berra put it: "It's so crowded nobody goes there anymore." Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 30, 2016 Author Report Posted June 30, 2016 If it's blatant, then how can you take advantage of it? Buy low...sell high. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
msj Posted June 30, 2016 Report Posted June 30, 2016 Buy low...sell high. Agreed. This happens because there is risk. It is just that some of us are willing to take the risk and others aren't. Sometimes we win, other times we lose. Just has to be more net winning than losing and it's all good. Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
?Impact Posted June 30, 2016 Report Posted June 30, 2016 Buy low...sell high. I usually buy when I'm high, and then get depressed because I'm broke and have to sell. Quote
SpankyMcFarland Posted July 1, 2016 Report Posted July 1, 2016 I am far better off cutting my spending than trying to outwit the market, especially this close to retirement. Quote
August1991 Posted July 2, 2016 Report Posted July 2, 2016 This happens because there is risk. It is just that some of us are willing to take the risk and others aren't. Sometimes we win, other times we lose. The "risk" of "timing the market"? To me, risk has a different meaning. Others refer to it as "volatility". "Timing the market"? To me, that requires special, insider information. Quote
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