bush_cheney2004 Posted June 27, 2016 Report Share Posted June 27, 2016 (edited) Okay...the expected Brexit drama is well underway and there is opportunity during the big sell off...financials have been hit the hardest. Let's discuss investment opportunities resulting from the political and economic uncertainty caused by Brexit, and the risk of a follow on Dexit, Frexit, or Spexit. Short term Brexit plays will be easier than predicting the very negative impact of a longer term EU collapse. The first obvious notion is a British Pound ETF, like FXB: https://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AqZSGX4pX3Qmue5ju79mQAonv7gF?uhb=uhb2&fr=uh3_finance_vert_gs&type=2button&s=FXB The British Pound had already been beat up since January, and is now at a 30 year low vs. USD. Time to make some money folks ! Edited June 27, 2016 by bush_cheney2004 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted June 27, 2016 Report Share Posted June 27, 2016 Let's discuss investment opportunities resulting from the political and economic uncertainty caused by Brexit, and the risk of a follow on Dexit, Frexit, or Spexit. Short term Brexit plays will be easier than predicting the very negative impact of a longer term EU collapse. Lots of investment opportunities in a possible Texit too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyeball Posted June 27, 2016 Report Share Posted June 27, 2016 Texas is leaving? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msj Posted June 27, 2016 Report Share Posted June 27, 2016 So, specifically, are you shorting the pound or waiting for it to settle and looking for a rebound? As a long term investor I am watching European banks and should EUFN settle in below $11.83 then I will being to accumulate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2016 So, specifically, are you shorting the pound or waiting for it to settle and looking for a rebound? I am waiting for an entry point to buy before the expected rebound. Technicals had already bottomed before the Brexit vote...pound was a poor performer all year. Banking and financial stocks are also ripe per your observation. Until the actual exit plan is formalized, uncertainty will continue. The EU will strive to contain the exit contagion with more helicopter money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2016 Texas is leaving? If you mean the band Texas (from Glasglow), the answer is yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted June 27, 2016 Report Share Posted June 27, 2016 (edited) Okay...the expected Brexit drama is well underway and there is opportunity during the big sell off...financials have been hit the hardest. Let's discuss investment opportunities resulting from the political and economic uncertainty caused by Brexit... I'm abroad, in a different time zone, and I looked at the numbers. In general, I don't time the market. But sometimes, I do. This time is no different from my general view. ====== The Western (Leftist) MSM is making a big deal of this. It's not. As they say, this is not even a "two sigma event". Edited June 27, 2016 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msj Posted June 27, 2016 Report Share Posted June 27, 2016 (edited) The Western (Leftist) MSM is making a big deal of this. It's not. As they say, this is not even a "two sigma event". The pound is more than a two sigma event. More like 15: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClvQTgNUoAAYs7a.jpg Edited June 27, 2016 by msj Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2016 I'm abroad, in a different time zone, and I looked at the numbers. In general, I don't time the market. But sometimes, I do. This time is no different from my general view. I love to time the market....challenge is that you have to be right...twice. Brexit in and of itself may not be a bear market event, but the prospect of further EU collapse could be enough to send markets plummeting further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted June 28, 2016 Report Share Posted June 28, 2016 The pound is more than a two sigma event. More like 15: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClvQTgNUoAAYs7a.jpg msj, if you want to play in currency - go ahead. === I looked at the FTSE in Cdn terms and its low - but not 5 yr low. Still, it's a buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted June 28, 2016 Report Share Posted June 28, 2016 (edited) I love to time the market.... Time the market? A fool's game. It's better to go to Las Vegas... Edited June 28, 2016 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2016 Time the market? A fool's game. It's better to go to Las Vegas... I have reaped far greater rewards by timing the market than by gambling in Las Vegas. With Brexit one can gamble with house money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonam Posted June 28, 2016 Report Share Posted June 28, 2016 I don't generally "time the market", but what I do do is invest new capital on the dips. I've found this to generate a slightly better return than simply investing a fixed amount on a periodic basis. The S&P500 is only down about 5% so far due to Brexit, from the recent peak, not meeting my threshold of a 10% decline to start putting more money in. Sadly, I don't have any capital to invest anyway, as I just bought a house... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msj Posted June 28, 2016 Report Share Posted June 28, 2016 I like this story about Jesse Livermore who shorted Union Pacific Railway prior to he San Francisco earthquake and fires in 1906. Made a ton of money shorting it. Then turned around and went long and made even more money. Who knows, future returns will vary.... http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/06/27/one-hundred-and-ten-years-ago/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?Impact Posted June 28, 2016 Report Share Posted June 28, 2016 (edited) what I do do is invest new capital on the dips That is a great strategy, the only problem I have found is conjuring up that new capital just in time for the dips. Edited June 28, 2016 by ?Impact Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2016 I went long today on a few U.S. banking stocks that were oversold even before the Brexit vote, and discounted after. Dividends are nice too. Keep some powder dry (new capital) for investment opportunities that come along. Pound has stabilized today, but may go as low as $1.20 USD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted June 29, 2016 Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 (edited) I have reaped far greater rewards by timing the market than by gambling in Las Vegas. With Brexit one can gamble with house money. b_c, speculative/arbitrage profits are earned in specific markets. You can possibly "time the market" if you "know" the specific market more than others. (eg. My brother-in-law is a real estate agent and he knows parts of the Laval market very well - far more than me.) ===== If b_c, you think that you know (more than others) what effect "Brexit" will have on any specific market, good luck in getting rich on your knowledge! Edited June 29, 2016 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 b_c, speculative/arbitrage profits are earned in specific markets. You can possibly "time the market" if you "know" the specific market more than others. (eg. My brother-in-law is a real estate agent and he knows parts of the Laval market very well - far more than me.) Specific knowledge is helpful, but not necessary to take advantage of blatant overselling and panic, whether from global events (war/terrorism), capital market meltdowns (2008), or other "capitulation" (recession). My mutual fund management firms actually cap the number of transfers and conversions I am permitted each quarter/year to discourage "timing the market" with defensive sideline parking and offensive buying at the bottom of cycles. E*Trade is much more flexible in this regard, but fees are higher. If b_c, you think that you know (more than others) what effect "Brexit" will have on any specific market, good luck in getting rich on your knowledge! As stated earlier, my objective is not to become rich. I only need to preserve/protect retirement assets from inflation and tax liabilities when added to pension income. Brexit is proving to be a minor fart in the wind, but I will track pound sterling as it goes lower for a buying opportunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 (edited) What about Britain's trade deficit? Doesn't that point to an already overvalued currency? I have made a small amount of money from some rapidly declining stocks, e.g. Nortel, Irish banks, by pure luck (a similar strategy came a cropper with Air Canada). In neither case was I aware of the scale of 'creative accounting' going on. My big fear with Brexit is contagion. If the EU begins to break up, we would be in the locale formerly known as Queer Street. Edited June 30, 2016 by SpankyMcFarland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 .... take advantage of blatant overselling and panic.... If it's blatant, then how can you take advantage of it? Or as Yogi Berra put it: "It's so crowded nobody goes there anymore." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted June 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 If it's blatant, then how can you take advantage of it? Buy low...sell high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msj Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Buy low...sell high. Agreed. This happens because there is risk. It is just that some of us are willing to take the risk and others aren't. Sometimes we win, other times we lose. Just has to be more net winning than losing and it's all good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?Impact Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Buy low...sell high. I usually buy when I'm high, and then get depressed because I'm broke and have to sell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 I am far better off cutting my spending than trying to outwit the market, especially this close to retirement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 This happens because there is risk. It is just that some of us are willing to take the risk and others aren't. Sometimes we win, other times we lose. The "risk" of "timing the market"? To me, risk has a different meaning. Others refer to it as "volatility". "Timing the market"? To me, that requires special, insider information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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