Tesla Model 3 Mystery

[Big Guy]

Electric car maker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) said on Thursday it had received more than 325,000 orders for its new Model 3 sedan in the first week of bookings. The reservations, which can be made by paying a refundable deposit of $1,000, correspond to about $14 billion in implied future sales, the company said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model3-orders-idUSKCN0X41ZJ

What is driving (sic) this phenomena?

Is this for real or a scam?

[TimG]

Is this for real or a scam?

It is real in the sense that people have paid $1000 for the opportunity to buy a car that cannot be delivered for years. A certain percentage of these people are speculators who hope to immediately re-sell their vehicle when it is delivered.

It is worth remembering that building a car is not so hard. Building a reliable car is hard:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cars/tesla-reliability-doesnt-match-its-high-performance/

And buying a car sight unseen seems to be quite insane.

Edited April 7, 2016 by TimG

[ironstone]

How would a car like this perform when it's -25 celcius,that's what I wonder.

[Bryan]

I like what David Booth from Driving.ca had to say:

Like seemingly everyone else on the planet, I tuned in to Tesla’s online launch of the Model 3. I watched with appreciation as Elon Musk worked his showmanship and was nothing short of gobsmacked with the stories of loyalists lining up just for the right to buy a car. It was unprecedented. It was incredible. It might have even been uplifting.

It was also, for those of us who trumpet reason over emotion, a little disturbing. Lining up for three days to buy a car? Seriously? For a car you might not take delivery of for four years? While others saw “a reinvigorated future for electric vehicles” and the long-predicted move to profitability for Tesla, what I saw, at least judging by the blissed-out visages of the show’s attendees, was a Creflo A. Dollar revival meeting -- “Hallelujah, glory be to God” -- giving thanks to the 200,000 acolytes he beseeched to buy him a private jet.

http://driving.ca/tesla/model-s/auto-news/news/motor-mouth-why-im-not-drinking-the-tesla-kool-aid-just-yet

Edited April 8, 2016 by Bryan

[Derek 2.0]

How would a car like this perform when it's -25 celcius,that's what I wonder.

No idea, but the Model S performs fine in -2 through -5 (and in light snow). I would question long term exposure to that type of cold though, the car's computer can estimate the long term battery health, and in cold weather, it will show a slight decrease in expected life, but it seemed to return once it warmed up a bit. Likewise, though the car ran fine in light snow, you have to get Tesla to calibrate it after you get a tire change (or rotation).....

[Derek 2.0]

Is this for real or a scam?

I'm sure Tesla will sell a whole bunch, but if we're talking 100s of thousands in North America, I question whether Tesla will be able to provide timely support to customers...........in my experience, if one were looking towards a buying a ~50k electric, I'd suggest buying from a more established car company like Chevy, Toyota, VW etc......

[Bonam]

People pre-order all kinds of products months and even years out all the time. Many people may have perfectly functional vehicles now but anticipate themselves upgrading in a few years. Tesla history so far has shown that they are often late with delivering what they promise, but that the things they deliver, when they finally deliver them, very much live up to or exceed the expectations. Why may people want a Tesla in particular? They have a lot of cool features other cars don't have, and they are also a status symbol in certain circles.

[Derek 2.0]

Many people may have perfectly functional vehicles now but anticipate themselves upgrading in a few years. Tesla history so far has shown that they are often late with delivering what they promise, but that the things they deliver, when they finally deliver them, very much live up to or exceed the expectations.

Try living in a community without a Tesla service center...........one thing I will give Tesla, they hold up in resale value compared to most other high end cars..........

[Topaz]

So do these cars need recharging centres? What's the cost to charging or are they self-charging? Will they go as fast as cars on gasoline and thinking about this I don't think I want to be on a express way when the batteries go.

[Bonam]

So do these cars need recharging centres?

You can charge it quickly at a supercharger, or you can charge it at home.

What's the cost to charging or are they self-charging?

Self-charging? That'd be a nice trick. No, they need to be charged. At superchargers, it's free. At home, it's whatever your electricity cost is. Last estimates I saw suggest that given average electricity and gas costs in the US, the electricity cost per distance driven is about 1/4-1/2 the cost of gasoline.

Will they go as fast as cars on gasoline and thinking about this I don't think I want to be on a express way when the batteries go.

Really? You need to ask if Teslas go fast? Lol. And yes... I wouldn't want to be on an express way when my car runs out of fuel, either.

[dre]

Will they go as fast as cars on gasoline.

Depends if that's what they are designed to do or not. In general terms electric motors are superior to combustion engines in real world applications. I replaced the 18 HP gas motor on my band mill with an 10 HP electric motor and I actual notice an increase in usable power because the electric motor has a much wider power band.

For this reason electric motors are less likely to need a gearbox.

Basically the only advantage of gasoline motors over electric is portability. If battery improvements or other technologies can narrow the gap between electric and gas, then nobody will ever build a gas motor again. They really are junk.

[Big Guy]

I asked my car mechanic about the servicing of electric cars and if he is capable of servicing them. He said that he has inquired and the changes he would have to make to one of his bays makes it unprofitable for the number of electric cars in the area or expected in the near future.

Apparently you have to spend $thousands on grounding bars and other specialized equipment required to protect the mechanics from the effects and dangers of the very powerful battery(s) when they are messing around inside.

[overthere]

You can charge it quickly at a supercharger, or you can charge it at home.

Self-charging? That'd be a nice trick. No, they need to be charged. At superchargers, it's free. At home, it's whatever your electricity cost is. Last estimates I saw suggest that given average electricity and gas costs in the US, the electricity cost per distance driven is about 1/4-1/2 the cost of gasoline.

Really? You need to ask if Teslas go fast? Lol. And yes... I wouldn't want to be on an express way when my car runs out of fuel, either.

So if it is 25% to 50% for electric car running costs as compared to gasoline in the US, what would it be in Ontario (and soon Alberta)? 200%?

[Bonam]

So if it is 25% to 50% for electric car running costs as compared to gasoline in the US, what would it be in Ontario (and soon Alberta)? 200%?

It's really not hard to do the math.

Gas:

Typical car is 30 MPG, which is like 8 miles per liter. A liter costs what, $1.00 in Canada right now? So 8 miles per dollar, or 12.5 cents / mile, or 7.8 cents per km.

Electric:

A Tesla gets 320 miles on 85 kWh battery. That's 4 miles per kWh. A kWh in ontario costs what, $0.13 or so? So 4 miles costs $0.13. Or 3.25 cents / mile, or 2 cents per km.

So 4x cheaper in Ontario to run the electric car.

[ironstone]

An interesting take on the Tesla from bnn.ca.They say it's possible for large numbers of these cars to actually cause emissions to rise.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/4/8/All-charged-up-Will-demand-for-Teslas-Model-3-overwhelm-the-electricity-grid-.aspx

[bill_barilko]

Tesla is setting up a service centre just a few blocks from me and of course my 'hood is already crawling with them.

It'll be interesting to see how other high end auto manufacturers like Jaguar & Maserati respond in the next decade or so- it's not as if people who already own their products care about costs.

[Wilber]

The Tesla 3 craze brings to mind the people who line up all night for the latest piece of Apple gear. Wonder how many of them are the same.

[Derek 2.0]

The Tesla 3 craze brings to mind the people who line up all night for the latest piece of Apple gear. Wonder how many of them are the same.

Without a doubt, Tesla owners have to be 2 parts cult follower, 2 parts groupie and a pinch of snob.

[Guest]

The Tesla 3 craze brings to mind the people who line up all night for the latest piece of Apple gear. Wonder how many of them are the same.

Silent ride, exceptional handling, well thought out interiors, sedans that out accelerate exotic sports cars, range greater than our requirements 95% of the time, autopilot, startable from your phone, performance boosts via downloadable update, now an economy model.... C'mon Tesla cars are pretty damn cool.

Apple phones do less, for more...but hey they come in gold.

[blueblood]

Silent ride, exceptional handling, well thought out interiors, sedans that out accelerate exotic sports cars, range greater than our requirements 95% of the time, autopilot, startable from your phone, performance boosts via downloadable update, now an economy model.... C'mon Tesla cars are pretty damn cool.

Apple phones do less, for more...but hey they come in gold.

I think its a great transition vehicle until they get the range figured out, high horsepower figured out, cold weather range figured out, and weight.

Good city car, not so good in the country

[blueblood]

Silent ride, exceptional handling, well thought out interiors, sedans that out accelerate exotic sports cars, range greater than our requirements 95% of the time, autopilot, startable from your phone, performance boosts via downloadable update, now an economy model.... C'mon Tesla cars are pretty damn cool.

Apple phones do less, for more...but hey they come in gold.

I think its a great transition vehicle until they get the range figured out, high horsepower figured out, cold weather range figured out, and weight.

Good city car, not so good in the country

[Guest]

I think its a great transition vehicle until they get the range figured out, high horsepower figured out, cold weather range figured out, and weight.

Good city car, not so good in the country

Electrics certainly aren't the best for the country at the moment; but, then again less than 2 in 10 live in rural environments. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo62a-eng.htm

Edited April 18, 2016 by Guest

[?Impact]

Good city car, not so good in the country

I would say not so good when long range driving is needed. Many people in rural communities do a lot of in-range type driving. For both city and rural families, an all electric vehicle would be a good second vehicle. The difference is that a small percentage of city folk could get by with only an all electric vehicle where that would be very difficult rural families.

[Big Guy]

I just discovered a new kind of battery powered car:

Battery powered

No need to recharge !!!!!!

[Derek 2.0]

Silent ride, exceptional handling, well thought out interiors, sedans that out accelerate exotic sports cars, range greater than our requirements 95% of the time, autopilot, startable from your phone, performance boosts via downloadable update, now an economy model.... C'mon Tesla cars are pretty damn cool.

Apple phones do less, for more...but hey they come in gold.

A couple points from a previous Tesla owner (well my wife's car)

- The acceleration in the Sports version P85 was no different from any other higher end luxury car......and not much better than her previous Cadillac ESV, which though it handled like a dishwasher at speed, still how balls when you put the spurs to it.......probably why North American police departments use its cousin as a highway interceptor........but I digress.........my wife's current Camaro blew the doors off it, and a Camaro isn't an exotic.......run one against a Lambo and the Model's S governor would kick in before the Italian Stallion got out of 5th.........

-Range was the main reason we sold it, and we found the battery life itself was crapping out after just ~2 years owning it......resulting in further reduced range and longer charging (we had the supercharger wired in our previous home, but not our current one mind you).

-Autopilot? Never heard of it or seen any offered updates (we sold our's over a year ago now mind you), it had park assist......but then so to do most sedans now.......Tesla's was nothing to jump up and down over, and it peeled off the front bumper (or so my wife says) which brings us to Tesla's biggest fault:

-Service.......the people are really friendly, when you can talk to someone. We had a service plan where they came to us (we then lived in Metro Vancouver)......from Seattle (Vancouver now has a service center)......when they had to fix the bumper they brought up a loaner (kinda expect that for $130000 car), but still its a pain in the ass.........when my wife's Cadillac had a few issues we brought to the dealer 20 minutes away and also got a loaner........You wanna put snow tires on you Tesla? Better let Tesla do it, since the car will have to be calibrated after....

My biggest complaint was service and I think that will be Tesla's biggest weakness going forward.........forget the niche high end market, if Tesla owners buying this new "cheap" Tesla and Tesla is unable to support the product timely, that could damage the "brand".............

You want to buy an electric? Buy Chev/Nissan/VW......companies that have a worldwide supply chain and trained mechanics at their dealers......dealers that are probably already in your community.........I wouldn't recommend a Tesla (yet).......you want one cheap? Check the BC Auto Trader, there's plenty used, in some cases, only two years old and $40K cheaper