bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Where does he get additional support? As it stands, I only see Trump gaining Cruz's vote share if/when Cruz drops out and endorses him.....which I doubt he would do. It's not so much where he gets it, but how, Trump has been very efficient on campaign spending, and now that he has his first real primary victory, he might expend more to exhaust the pretenders. Only Bush has the deep pockets to stay in all the way to the finish line. Congrats to Sanders as well, a true socialist that will even get some Canadians excited, like Obama did ! Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
WestCoastRunner Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 It's not so much where he gets it, but how, Trump has been very efficient on campaign spending, and now that he has his first real primary victory, he might expend more to exhaust the pretenders. Only Bush has the deep pockets to stay in all the way to the finish line. Congrats to Sanders as well, a true socialist that will even get some Canadians excited, like Obama did ! Sanders isn't going anywhere. Quote I love to see a young girl go out and grab the world by the lapels. Life's a bitch. You've got to go out and kick ass. - Maya Angelou
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Sanders will get more of what matters now....money. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Derek 2.0 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 It's not so much where he gets it, but how, Trump has been very efficient on campaign spending, and now that he has his first real primary victory But lets put Iowa and New Hampshire in context with Super Tuesday, and Texas in particular........looking at just Texas on March 1st, a 4th place finisher in the Lone Star State could grab more delegates then the winner of Iowa or New Hampshire......at the end of the day, there are two more races until Super Tuesday, South Carolina and Nevada.......if you combine these four races, you get about as many delegates as Georgia and Tennessee, only but two States on Super Tuesday......... ---------- It sounds like Christie is finished, I would expect him to endorse Bush. ----------- Kasich is almost broke, but I'd expect him to find some more backers with his 2nd place finish.....might be worth it for him to not spend too much time in South Carolina, and start looking to Mid-West and Northern Super Tuesday States....... --------- Rubio needs to salvage his run to make it through to Super Tuesday or will start bleeding money and support..... -------- Cruz and Trump? I expect them to go at each other over winner takes all South Carolina...... Only Bush has the deep pockets to stay in all the way to the finish line. And Trump.......Bush needs Trump to meet his Alamo in Texas and the South on Super Tuesday Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 ...But lets put Iowa and New Hampshire in context with Super Tuesday, and Texas in particular........looking at just Texas on March 1st, a 4th place finisher in the Lone Star State could grab more delegates then the winner of Iowa or New Hampshire..... Delegate math is different from campaign finance math, and the latter is far more unforgiving. Demographics change too. Some states are open primaries/caucuses, others are closed. It's a game of musical chairs with winners staying in the game as long as they can afford to do so. Losers with no money have to go home. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Derek 2.0 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Delegate math is different from campaign finance math, and the latter is far more unforgiving. Demographics change too. Some states are open primaries/caucuses, others are closed. It's a game of musical chairs with winners staying in the game as long as they can afford to do so. Losers with no money have to go home. To get through March 1st, I think you can count on Trump, Bush, Rubio, Cruz and now Kasich being able to get there........March 2nd should see the GOP body bags start filling. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 I don't think Kasich can get a national campaign machine up and running soon enough. He tried in 2000, but got no big money support. The Republican money whales are not going to take a chance on Kasich. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
sharkman Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Sanders will get more of what matters now....money. Yep, I love it, the old dame is fading fast. After what she did WRT Benghazi she deserves to go down in flames. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Don't get too excited for Sanders.....Clinton has a huge demographic advantage in SC and NV. But it is fun to see her face some real competition to earn the party nomination instead of just assuming she deserves or has a right to it. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Derek 2.0 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 I don't think Kasich can get a national campaign machine up and running soon enough. He tried in 2000, but got no big money support. The Republican money whales are not going to take a chance on Kasich. I tend to agree, I still think he would make a good name for the bottom of the ticket though........I think Kasich's moderate tone would do wonders as head of the Senate. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 I tend to agree, I still think he would make a good name for the bottom of the ticket though........I think Kasich's moderate tone would do wonders as head of the Senate. Maybe later...but right now it is time for passionate, rock 'em, sock 'em politics complete with dirty tricks. Go big or go home. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Derek 2.0 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Maybe later...but right now it is time for passionate, rock 'em, sock 'em politics complete with dirty tricks. Go big or go home. Right, but if the race goes down to the convention, stepping on too many toes might not be a smart play. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Right, but if the race goes down to the convention, stepping on too many toes might not be a smart play. Kasich is still the same reserved guy we saw 16 years ago. "Old man" Trump has raised the energy level, and balanced boredom from the same stiffs will not cut it. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Derek 2.0 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Kasich is still the same reserved guy we saw 16 years ago. "Old man" Trump has raised the energy level, and balanced boredom from the same stiffs will not cut it. Yet Trump's ceiling to date is ~1/3rd of the party....... Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Yet Trump's ceiling to date is ~1/3rd of the party....... That's good spread across so many candidates. The "party" better figure out how to run its own game better than a billionaire developer and reality TV star. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Derek 2.0 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 That's good spread across so many candidates. The "party" better figure out how to run its own game better than a billionaire developer and reality TV star. And that is the point........it will come down to money, attrition and ground game.........I think with Rubio's crappy debate performance, it goes back to Bush......I know he's had his mom out stumping, maybe its time to wheel out Dad, big brother and Lord Vader.... Quote
sharkman Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Don't get too excited for Sanders.....Clinton has a huge demographic advantage in SC and NV. But it is fun to see her face some real competition to earn the party nomination instead of just assuming she deserves or has a right to it. True enough, but she IS getting desperate and polls seem to be trending toward the bernster. Lets face it, he'd be an almost automatic win for the republicans. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Bush is "low energy" as Trump puts it. If Trump puts on a better show and brings the most votes to Cleveland in July, what are they gonna do ? Go to a second or third ballot until traditional blue hairs win ? The eventual Republican candidate has to win more long before the convention. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Derek 2.0 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 The eventual Republican candidate has to win more long before the convention. And that goes back to Super Tuesday, namely the South and Texas....where Bush should do well. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 True enough, but she IS getting desperate and polls seem to be trending toward the bernster. Lets face it, he'd be an almost automatic win for the republicans. Clinton is smarter this time around, and Sanders is not a younger "African American" candidate. The fight has just begun, but at least Sanders is still in it vs. the Big Clinton Machine. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 And that goes back to Super Tuesday, namely the South and Texas....where Bush should do well. Great...but he needs to actually do it instead of talk about why he loses with such miserable numbers compared to The Donald. In 2000, George W. Bush ended the party campaign season with 43 states and 62% of the vote. Jeb will not be able to do this. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Derek 2.0 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 Great...but he needs to actually do it instead of talk about why he loses with such miserable numbers compared to The Donald. In 2000, George W. Bush ended the party campaign season with 43 states and 62% of the vote. Jeb will not be able to do this. Again, it goes back to context.......Trump now has 17 delegates, compared to the 15 held by the "establishment" and 10 held by Cruz.....of a possible 2472, of which 1237 are needed to win the nomination..........Rubio, with a 3rd and 5th place finish is only 10 delegates behind Trump, and three behind Cruz. ----------- As noted, South Carolina is winner take all (50 delegates), and both Cruz and Trump are already launching attacks on each other.......what isn't mentioned though is that Bush has a solid ground game there, family roots (Barbara grew-up there), an endorsement from Senator Graham and that the Bush people (see family) are in talks with Gov. Haley seeking an endorsement........which many thought would go to Rubio......... So a Bush win in SC would change the tone of the race, and though marginal in terms of delegates, would be a bonus going into Super Tuesday.......I just don't see how Trump, outside a still heavily divided "mainstream", does well in the South, and especially Texas. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 ...So a Bush win in SC would change the tone of the race, and though marginal in terms of delegates, would be a bonus going into Super Tuesday.......I just don't see how Trump, outside a still heavily divided "mainstream", does well in the South, and especially Texas. If Bush wins, he's back from the dead, just like McCain in 2008. Until then, he is chasing Trump. He needs to put up or shut up. Trump just needs more anti-illegals rhetoric to score points in Texas. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Derek 2.0 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 (edited) If Bush wins, he's back from the dead, just like McCain in 2008. Until then, he is chasing Trump. He needs to put up or shut up. ........I've heard in South Carolina, "somebody's" Super Pac, is about to blitz the airways with Trump's Vietnam draft deferments......prepare for a swift boat redux.........Good luck running in the GOP South being seen as a draft dodger Trump just needs more anti-illegals rhetoric to score points in Texas. In Bush country? I think Trump would be lucky to finish 3rd, behind Bush and Cruz. Trump's commie remarks on Keystone XL will sink him there.........likewise his remarks on tossing the F-35......eminent domain......the above mentioned draft dodging.....and crapping on the entire Bush family etc....... One more point, not to be overlooked, is who Gov. Abbott endorses......... Bush/Abbott 2016, you heard it here first Edited February 10, 2016 by Derek 2.0 Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2016 Report Posted February 10, 2016 ....Trump's commie remarks on Keystone XL will sink him there.........likewise his remarks on tossing the F-35......eminent domain......the above mentioned draft dodging.....and crapping on the entire Bush family etc....... Crapping on the Bush family is an American (and Canadian) pastime. Trump should not change what has worked for him to date, and the more mud that gets slung, the better for Trump. Trump doesn't need to win Texas...just finish top 3 with a Bush/Cruz split. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
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