How Trudeau will work very hard on dumping FPTP

SpankyMcFarland · November 5, 2015

Could you actually cite a nation that became MORE right wing after a PR system? New Zealand certainly hasn't. Germany has remained centrist. I suppose Israel, to some extent, although it's easy to confuse Israel's hawkish foreign policy with its domestic policies.I don't see CAnada becoming more right wing at all, mainly because fiscal Conservatism and social Conservatism have really been cut in two over the last decade. This seems like nothing more than fear mongering, and not even very logical fear mongering.

The experience in Ireland (multi-seat STV PR) has been shaped by the reality of coalition government for decades. This has forced parties from all parts of the political spectrum to form coalitions. There has been a drift to the right since the eighties but that has probably more to do with the influence of global trends than the voting system itself which tends to encourage compromise and, I would say, has a centralizing tendency on policies, if anything.

Edited November 5, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland

PIK · November 5, 2015

The left thinks it will keep out the right from power. That is the only reason they want it. Italy here we come.

overthere · November 5, 2015

The left thinks it will keep out the right from power. That is the only reason they want it. Italy here we come.

It is more specific than that. Ranked ballots do not help the NDP- not as long as they cling to the fringes as hard as they have for.... well... forever.

Ranked ballots benefit one party far more than any other. The Liberals. A dynasty looms.

It is significant that Trudeau kept the Intergovernmental affairs portfolio for himself. He knows that the next room he has to work hard is one full or premiers where constitutional change happens.

He is going to have to buy the support of Wynne and Couillard to change the FPTP to anything resembling ranked ballots. Well, Couillard really, Wynne is already there. It won't be cheap, these things never are, as we have all seen for generations.

Smallc · November 5, 2015

We don't need to change the Constitution to change the voting system.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Smallc

Michael Hardner · November 5, 2015

This seems like nothing more than fear mongering, and not even very logical fear mongering.

How exactly did I get accused of fear-mongering by both a right-wing and a left-wing MLW member ?

You can't both be right. In fact, neither is right. I'm stating my views on likely scenario. If you think Conservative dominance is something to fear, then maybe you really fear democracy.

overthere · November 5, 2015

We don't need to change the Constitution to change the voting system.

well, then that makes it very easy to do.

ToadBrother · November 5, 2015

How exactly did I get accused of fear-mongering by both a right-wing and a left-wing MLW member ?

You can't both be right. In fact, neither is right. I'm stating my views on likely scenario. If you think Conservative dominance is something to fear, then maybe you really fear democracy.

You're stating your views as to a scenario. What I'm objecting to is your notion that is a likely scenario. I don't think it's a very probable outcome at all.

ToadBrother · November 5, 2015

The left thinks it will keep out the right from power. That is the only reason they want it. Italy here we come.

And more fear mongering. As if the only thing in the world that makes Italy so divided is its electoral system.

If that's the case, then why isn't Germany a basket case?

ReeferMadness · November 5, 2015

I agree with you, however it's too tempting not to imagine what one thinks *could* happen.

My take on it is that Canada would end up far more right-wing than it has been in 50 years. I believe this would happen because our current precarious left-right balance has resulted in generous social programs, liberal outlook and relatively conservative fiscal management. The first steps of a PR-supported Canada would involve Liberal+NDP coalitions outspending our means for years or decades until we face Greece-like austerity options. After that, Canada's natural conservatism would prevail.

Be careful what you wish for.

Canada is going to turn into Greece? Because left wingers under PR can't resist spending? Is that what's happened in Germany? Sweden? Norway?

You know what's really funny. People keep trotting out this old canard about how lefties can't manage to balance budgets. Meanwhile, the most conservative country in the western world is spending itself into oblivion. The US has neither left wing government nor proportional representation and they haven't had a balanced budget since 2001.

ToadBrother · November 5, 2015

Canada is going to turn into Greece? Because left wingers under PR can't resist spending? Is that what's happened in Germany? Sweden? Norway?

Stop bringing up successful PR countries. Let's talk about Israel!

The worst part about this constant haranguing about Italy and Israel is that it ignores all the real reasons these two countries have such a fractured political system. Italy has been a divided region since the Byzantine Emperors and various Germanic kings battled each other over the region. Heck, Italy wasn't even fully united until the Lateran Treaty in 1929 saw the Vatican surrender the last vestiges of the Papal States. As to Israel, it's a geographically tiny country with a pretty small parliament with an actually very diverse population made up of everything from non-practicing cultural Jews to extreme Orthodox Jews and even Arabs.

Is there some particular reason that anyone thinks that Canada culturally or socially resembles either one of these countries?

Michael Hardner · November 5, 2015

You're stating your views as to a scenario. What I'm objecting to is your notion that is a likely scenario. I don't think it's a very probable outcome at all.

Yes, I agree - this is my opinion only vis-a-vis likelihood.

Michael Hardner · November 5, 2015

People keep trotting out this old canard about how lefties can't manage to balance budgets.

Yes, look at Ontario for a more contemporary example. Harper did relatively well during a recession, without drastic cuts either.

ReeferMadness · November 5, 2015

Yes, look at Ontario for a more contemporary example. Harper did relatively well during a recession, without drastic cuts either.

Harper ran some of the largest deficits in history. And because he also ran some of the most secretive governments in history, we really don't know what the impact of the cuts was. Did you know that Kevin Page is still fighting for access to information on the effects of Harper budget cuts? He filed dozens of access to information requests from the "shadow PBO" he is now running at the University of Ottawa. I hope that Trudeau runs a more transparent government.

Regardless, you can't point to one government and generalize that Canada will go to hell in a handbasket under PR.

Michael Hardner · November 5, 2015

Harper ran some of the largest deficits in history.

Yes, during a recession... that is now on the verge of ending and the books are almost balanced. How is Ontario doing ?

And because he also ran some of the most secretive governments in history, we really don't know what the impact of the cuts was.

Well... there weren't wholesale budget cuts in the same way that the Harris government cut budgets is my point.

Regardless, you can't point to one government and generalize that Canada will go to hell in a handbasket under PR.

That was one example. There are others.

ToadBrother · November 5, 2015

That was one example. There are others.

And there are examples of FPTP countries in an equally screwy state. Someone mentioned the United States, where fiscal matters are a mess and have been for nearly 15 years.

Maybe the electoral system isn't the only reason, or even the primary reason, some countries have screwy financial problems. After all, Germany uses MMR, and it's one of the world's great economic engines.

ReeferMadness · November 5, 2015

Yes, during a recession... that is now on the verge of ending and the books are almost balanced. How is Ontario doing ?

I don't know how Ontario is doing and I don't really care to learn. One example means nothing.

That was one example. There are others.

And there are plenty of counter-examples. Unless you can show me a long term study that shows a clear trend, I have to assume that your views are based on nothing more than a commonly held stereotype.

You can have low taxes and you can have high program spending - but you can't have both. Deficits happen when a government only pays attention to one side of the equation. Conservatives like to blame the huge Harper era deficits on the recession and the opposition that "made" embark on stimulative spending but they conveniently forget the ill-considered, populist GST tax cut and the corporate tax cuts. I've seen zero evidence that either of these measures had any marked effect on lessening the recession but they clearly affected the deficits.

Harper has to own his deficits - the same as every other PM.

Michael Hardner · November 6, 2015

And there are examples of FPTP countries in an equally screwy state.

Ok, I guess we're moving on then...

Maybe the electoral system isn't the only reason, or even the primary reason, some countries have screwy financial problems.

I think it's a leap to just say PR countries have bad economies without explaining the link between those two features.

Michael Hardner · November 6, 2015

I don't know how Ontario is doing and I don't really care to learn. One example means nothing.

That was one example. There are others.

ToadBrother · November 6, 2015

That was one example. There are others.

I don't recall Mike Harris leaving Ontario a glorious land of plenty. You seem to have a bias when you pick examples of governments that left the books in a mess.

Michael Hardner · November 6, 2015

I don't recall Mike Harris leaving Ontario a glorious land of plenty. You seem to have a bias when you pick examples of governments that left the books in a mess.

That's not the bar... the bar is reducing deficits and hopefully balancing the books. He came very close.

Michael Hardner · November 6, 2015

Anyway, enough of this. I do think Trudeau's government will be a tax and spend government but I am playing to the orchestra with regards to the mythology of Liberal vs Conservative governments. Mulroney was quite Liberal with his spending and Paul Martin was quite Conservative.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/graphic-50-years-of-canadian-debt

That's a useful graph. Does anyone else have one ?

poochy · November 6, 2015

Yea Martin was quite conservative, especially when he slashed the budget to the bone, of course the conservatives did nothing even close, but were still vilified beyond measure for (not) doing it.

ToadBrother · November 6, 2015

Yea Martin was quite conservative, especially when he slashed the budget to the bone, of course the conservatives did nothing even close, but were still vilified beyond measure for (not) doing it.

You were vilified because you were jerks while you were doing it. Cut backs and budget carving are damned hard at the best of times, but the Tories treated it a happy game of whack-a-mole, and that mean spirited way they pursued it caught up with them. Hopefully, in the future, nasty little worms like Pierre Poilievre are dispatched to the back benches where they can partake in their fair share of verbal diarrhea outside of cabinet.

ReeferMadness · November 6, 2015

Back to the topic at hand, according to Stephane Dion, there will be no referendum on the new system.

Yesterday, Dion ruled out having a referendum on selecting a new electoral system, similar to unsuccessful referenda in B.C. and Ontario. Rather, the parliamentary committee will consult Canadians and experts for advice before suggesting reform legislation.

Since it was in their platform, they do have a mandate to change the system. Should be interesting.

ToadBrother · November 6, 2015

Since it was in their platform, they do have a mandate to change the system. Should be interesting.

Opponents of electoral reform wanted a referendum so they could bring their vast forces to bear to kill it, much as happened in the last STV referendum in BC.

Providing there is no mucking with the provincial proportionality of seats guaranteed in the Constitution, Parliament is as perfectly within its right to choose the means of its members' election as it is in setting limits on campaign spending or any other aspect of electioneering.