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cybercoma · October 5, 2015

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Edited January 30, 2017 by cybercoma

cybercoma · October 5, 2015

I've got that broken down by province if anyone's interested in that.

Edit: Provincial Breakdown
Edit 2: 2011 results in parentheses

NL: CPC 0 (1), LPC 5 (4), NDP 2 (2)
NS: CPC 1 (4), LPC 7 (4), NDP 3 (3)
PE: CPC 0 (1), LPC 4 (3), NDP 0 (0)
NB: CPC 4 (8), LPC 5 (1), NDP 1 (1)
QC: CPC 9 (5), LPC 13 (7), NDP 55 (59), BQ 1 (4)
ON: CPC 46 (73), LPC 54 (11), NDP 21 (22)
MB: CPC 7 (11), LPC 4 (1), NDP 3 (2)
SK: CPC 10 (13), LPC 1 (0), NDP 3 (1)
AB: CPC 28 (27), LPC 4 (0), NDP 2 (1)
BC: CPC 15 (21), LPC 7 (2), NDP 18 (12), GRN 2 (1)
YT: CPC 0 (1), LPC 1 (0), NDP 0 (1)
NW: CPC 0 (0), LPC 0 (1), NDP 1 (0)
NU: CPC 0 (1), LPC 1 (0), NDP 0 (0)

Totals: CPC 120, LPC 106, NDP 109, GRN 2, BQ 1

Edit 3: Update Oct 15

Updated Seat Prediction

NL: LPC 6, NDP 1
NS: LPC 9, NDP 2
PE: LPC 4
NB: LPC 5, CPC 4, NDP 1
QC: LPC 21, CPC 12, NDP 33, BQ 12
ON: LPC 60, CPC 41, NDP 20
MB: LPC 4, CPC 8, NDP 2
SK: LPC 1, CPC 9, NDP 4
AB: LPC 4, CPC 27, NDP 3
BC: LPC 12, CPC 12, NDP 16, GRN 2

YT: LPC 1
NW: NDP 1
NU: LPC 1

Total Projected Seats:

LPC 128
CPC 113
NDP 83
GRN 2
BQ 12

Liberal Minority Government

Edited October 15, 2015 by cybercoma

nerve · October 5, 2015

JUST IN... MAJORITY OR BUST put the crack pipes down push your woman aside and get the brainwave.

There will be no minority. If the seats outnumber the cons the governor general will be brought to a no confidence measure to form a coalition government based on seats. Conservatives under Stephen Harper will never be trusted with government again if they do not form a majority.

Conservatives can't govern as a minority, they will be impotent and it will benefit no one. While them as a majority will destroy Canada by slowly eroding human rights and freedoms.

The vote is still a couple weeks off so anything can happen, but I think Conservatives need to wake up and realize their government is hated by a majority of Canadians.

The polls are weird and I think they are getting less representative. Questions like top two parties you'd vote for doesn't represent how people vote in Canada, and people have more and more non-listed numbers, non landlines etc... The online polls only get specific people, so I would say the polls really aren't that accurate, but I am not an expect on polling. I think polling is less and less representative as new technologies are used and old systems of polling are not longer efficient at tracking the population - especially with such small polling numbers - i.e. 1000 people etc..

A majority of Canadians favour a coalition if the Tories are outnumbered in seats by any group of others that are anyone but the Tories, which is all parties.

Tories getting more seats will not matter if they do not have a plurality. They will not form government without a majority or idiocy by one of the two major seat getters that will outnumber them if so.

Is not the party with the most seats it is the person who has the confidence of the house. The PM need not even have a seat - by law the ministers aren't even suppose to be sitting MPs, although this has been watered down, as the executive is suppose to vacate seats if they have them to form the executive, which this practice has ended somewhat. None the less, all sanity points to a coalition government that will include atleast the Liberal and NDP. If all projections are vaguely accurate there is no doubt there will be a majority coalition government that will lock out the Tories, but still be more civil than the Tories.

Although the Tory dominated senate may cause an ineffectual legislature for a few years, how exactly the senate will behave under a coalition will have to be tested in real time.

I place no bets on how the seats will fall, but it would be horrific if the conservatives obtained another majority. If they don't do that, they are out of government, period.

The only exception to a coalition is an NDP minority or a liberal minority. The conservatives getting a minority seat level will spell their doom rather than be a benefit to them. Majority or bust for the conservatives.

There is no way the conservatives will gain confidence as a minority after all their majority BS shenanigans. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/close-election-brings-danger-of-political-instability/article26554054/

They are not trusted and have no confidence of the house.

"Asked by Reuters whether the Liberals would back a Harper minority government, the party’s leader Justin Trudeau on Tuesday said at an event in Montreal: “There are no circumstances in which I would support Stephen Harper to continue being prime minister of this country.”"

“The short answer to your question is, there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell,” New Democrat Leader Thomas Mulcair told reporters

The point in this is your prediction isn't based on sanity. Seat counts are fuzzy they don't matter what matters is does every other party have more seats than the conservatives to determine who will form government.

Edited October 5, 2015 by nerve

cybercoma · October 5, 2015

Blah blah blah, got seat predictions?

nerve · October 5, 2015

Blah blah blah, got seat predictions?

Let me consult my magic 8 ball.

It says "Not Sure Yet"

My loose prediction is a Liberal-NDP Coalition based upon this loose makeup

Quebec - NDP

NS NB NFLD- Liberal

BC - NDP/LIBERAL

Alberta - Conservative

Ontario - Split Liberal/NDP/Conservative

Praries Mostly conservative but also some liberal and NDP seats

4-10 atleast other seats in quebec and BC, mostly in Quebec.

Conservatives will not get majority threshold

Liberal and NDP will outnumber and form coalition govt. If either leader doesn't win their seat the one who does will be PM.

I still think the NDP will uptick a little closer to the election but most of their downturn is due to the francophone vote in Quebec that still wants sovereigntist representation. This may result in a few BQ seats particularly in core francophone separatist areas of Quebec, possible for a better showing than the last election for the BQ, and this could upset a few NDP seats held now.

I think what is likely is the Tories will loose seats, and the liberals will pick some up. BQ may gain a few seats. What will matter most is a loss of a Tory majority which will boot them out of government.

There is still some possibility on vote splitting in ridings that leaves a certain distaste particularly in Quebec and Ontario. As this could lead to some upsets that will result in non-representative wins, but this is still a ways to go.

Oddly I poll somewhere between the Tories and Grits - if these polls are to be believed but I've grown quite disgusted in the Tories social policies, which are self destructive. Although I don't really trust any of the parties. I don't have enough info to make an informed opinion though. They are spending too much on pointless endeavors, it is horrible. They have lost sight of what really matters to Canadians. They are governing to increase their power, which is a very bad thing for everyday Canadians. In this sense I think most Canadians realize this, it is just whether they are part of a labour union or middle class, which is unfortunate as this is where the vote splitting is coming in. It is this divide and conquer that is creating the instability.

In this sense urban areas may turn more Liberal, while working urban areas - industrial places may turn to the NDP. I sense that the "family block" the conservatives have been pandering too may turn to other parties based upon their employment class, which is what will lead to the seat fall of the Tories.

If not for the upping of the Alberta seat counts they would fall much more.

I think Ontario will again decide if the Tories are given another majority, but quite honestly, that is a tough pill to swallow, but these are the same people that voted in another Liberal Government - based on the alternatives - however I think Ontario is ok with both Mulcair and Trudeau, and the non rural areas will swing back to the center.

The rural areas are problematic I have family that live in these areas and they aren't really mindful about anything that doesn't directly effect them, they don't look at the big picture only what effects their day to day lives and their wallets. Its these rural voters that may be the deciding factor - however if the TPP passes it could piss off some of these farm people enough to swing the vote.

Still a lot to be said though. Some may welcome the TPP but I think farmers stick together - the problem is many of these are traditionally right wing so swaying this vote may be hard but a NAFTA for farmers may be enough to destroy the Tories in Ontario, and definitely in Quebec. Of course the few remaining autoparts urban centers will also swing to the liberals and NDP. This may force some change in Urban areas, such as Cambridge, Hamilton Toronto Vancouver, Halifax etc.. I think this depends on how people interpret Canada's industrial competitiveness.

This swings a bit because low dollar equals low oil, this means loss of importance of Alberta and Newfoundland, but it may promote trade which may work with the TPP for the resource sector and finished goods, however it is obvious the US and Asia Pacific will outbid Canadian companies so the TPP is a loss for Canada imo at this point because industry has been beaten down so much, only a few industries are left.

But the public doesn't look at it this way, they are going to be asking who will insure I keep my job and who is going to get me a job...

I don't think people can look to the Tories to do this, all they do is buy votes they don't deliver. If Canada heads into heavy recession due to a long term oil depression and TPP non-competitiveness people will look to the left to protect them. However at the same time, I can't say I think Canadians really look at the big picture, so anything goes.

I have no confidence in the polls or votes, and I am very disturbed at how police and aspects of the public are in targeting non-normative activities - the right is a real threat to the fabric of an accepting canadian environment, there are real issues on Canadian identity that will be furthered by this vote.

It is a very important vote. The harper government is old and is not respected by the other side, once that happens it really isn't fit to govern anymore, sometime around 2010/2011 they moved to that point. I think there was some shock at the last election, and I think this was a wakeup call for people. People will try much harder to prevent a Tory majority this time around. They will also move to insure no Tory minority is brought into government.

We will see seats move and it will not be to the Tories. That is all that matters. They got a narrow majority last time, this time, even with increased seats made by gerrymandering in Alberta they will have a hard time getting a majority, and may even loose seats in Calgary and Edmonton - but this remains to be seen. Based on analysis of intelligence sources there will be chinks in the Blue wall this election - just how many remains to be seen.

In respect of a Tory majority, I think that scares some people at this point. Its like being castrated really for the majority of Canadians who are left of center or left of the far right. We are going back before rights were entrenched. We saw war measures used during this government to fight "Lawful Protest" really.. it is a scary thought. Now we have people born in Canada being moved against to loose their citizenship, and unlawful detention for non-criminal grounds for a month or longer... that isn't Canada. All communications logged without a warrant, and a relatively chronically lying government that just can't be believed about anything. You know when you centralize that type of power you really need to ask. Is this the government I want? Sure there are a lot of jerk Canadians who are totally corrupt themselves and will think, well if I kiss but and keep in favor its not so bad, but for those who like their freedoms, there is no way these people can vote Tory, and I think that outside of redneck type areas you just won't get the same vote as the last election.

I think perhaps I am just hopeful but it remains to be seen.

The tories will try to sell this as new markets for farmers, but its not, it is open markets for the competition. They say we will let anything go to their other treaty negotiators, then turn back and say, but it won't change anything in Canada to their farmers, they are dung faced liars, it will change things. Only megacorps benefit from these international free trade deals.

Just look at how much land was bought up by factory mega farm corps, and how much megacorps like monsanto have on farming with free trade, it won't be made better with the TPP, the Tories are selling out Farmers for their corporate overlords.

US is dominant corporate power. http://www.iatp.org/blog/201311/nafta-and-us-farmers—20-years-later

TPP will not benefit Canadian farms, US will find excuses on other grounds.

"U.S. farm policy: the 1996 Farm Bill, which set in place a shift from supply management and regulated markets to an accelerated policy of “get big or get out.” - See more at: http://www.iatp.org/blog/201311/nafta-and-us-farmers%E2%80%9420-years-later#sthash.Br0Pew0q.dpuf"

This has been inching forward in Canada and TPP will drive stakes into that policy only the NDP are opposing this strongly.

Getting farms and rural people to vote NDP to vote against the TPP will be a tough sell.

PS I personally do not support supply management but I understand its importance to how Canadian Farmers will be effected by the TPP, and what it means for their childrens future, all of our children's future. Clearly Canadians and Farmers should care about what the TPP will do to their livelihood and futures.

""Mr. Harper has absolutely no mandate to sacrifice family farms like this one," Mulcair said during a news conference at a farm in Upton, Que., outside of Montreal.

He went on to say that an NDP government would rip up any agreement that doesn't protect the fundamental pillars of supply management"

Edited October 5, 2015 by nerve

Vancouver King · October 5, 2015

This is a revision from a week ago.

CPC - 155

Liberal - 123

NDP - 59

Green - 1

This supposes NDP support in Quebec has stabilized.

blueblood · October 5, 2015

Too bad the libs didnt have garneau as the head cheese. That seat count is going to depend heavily on whether the tpp goes thru or not. They still negotiating. As of right now my seat projections are similar to cubercoma and Vancouverking.

CITIZEN_2015 · October 5, 2015

Liberal 126
Conservative 112
NDP 98
BQ 1
GRN 1

ToadBrother · October 5, 2015

Blah blah blah, got seat predictions?

If Nanos is right, I think the Liberals will probably get in the 130s to 140s, the Tories somewhere in the 120s, and the NDP well below a hundred seats.

But still two weeks out and all the polls are still showing considerable volatility.

PIK · October 5, 2015

When people vote to get harper out for whatever reason, I hope the understand what they are voting for. But I am noyt doing the number thing, but I will call it a small majority for harper. Harper will do better in Que, He will do really well in alberta and of course ONT never votes for who ever runs the province, so harper will de very well in ONT.

Edited October 5, 2015 by PIK

ToadBrother · October 5, 2015

When people vote to get harper out for whatever reason, I hope the understand what they are voting for. But I am noyt doing the number thing, but I will call it a small majority for harper. Harper will do better in Que, He will do really well in alberta and of course ONT never votes for who ever runs the province, so harper will de very well in ONT.

You won't do the number thing, but rather the wishful thinking thing, eh?

PIK · October 5, 2015

I don't have time to do that. But what do you have in alberta and ont?

Smeelious · October 5, 2015

Conservative 145

Lib 125

NDP 66

Green 1

Bloq 1

Other 0

Something like this. The Conservatives have shown they are good at pulling the ridings that really matter,

I expect the NDP to take a pounding as more and more people think that the libs will be the "Anyone but Harper" party

Edited October 5, 2015 by Michael Hardner
corrected spelling of Conservatives

cybercoma · October 5, 2015

Updated my first two posts with a revised projection and provincial breakdown with last election's results.

cybercoma · October 5, 2015

I've got that broken down by province if anyone's interested in that.

Edit: Provincial Breakdown

Edit 2: 2011 results in parentheses

NL: CPC 0 (1), LPC 5 (4), NDP 2 (2)

NS: CPC 1 (4), LPC 7 (4), NDP 3 (3)

PE: CPC 0 (1), LPC 4 (3), NDP 0 (0)

NB: CPC 4 (8), LPC 5 (1), NDP 1 (1)

QC: CPC 9 (5), LPC 13 (7), NDP 55 (59), BQ 1 (4)

ON: CPC 46 (73), LPC 54 (11), NDP 21 (22)

MB: CPC 7 (11), LPC 4 (1), NDP 3 (2)

SK: CPC 10 (13), LPC 1 (0), NDP 3 (1)

AB: CPC 28 (27), LPC 4 (0), NDP 2 (1)

BC: CPC 15 (21), LPC 7 (2), NDP 18 (12), GRN 2 (1)

YT: CPC 0 (1), LPC 1 (0), NDP 0 (1)

NW: CPC 0 (0), LPC 0 (1), NDP 1 (0)

NU: CPC 0 (1), LPC 1 (0), NDP 0 (0)

Totals: CPC 120, LPC 106, NDP 109, GRN 2, BQ 1

I just wanted to talk this out a bit.

Trudeau is dominating the maritimes. We can see that in the prediction as well. The Tories will be shut out of NL and PE, but that's hardly surprising. They're traditionally Grit provinces anyway. The biggest shift is in NS. With the Tory incumbents going into retirement and the strong support for Trudeau, I'm expecting the Tories to lose all but 1 seat here (Central Nova, Peter Mackay's old riding). New Brunswick is a funny place. It's a swing province. They'll hang onto some Tory seats, but again the regional numbers are indicating the Liberals picking up a number of seats here.

Quebec. Oh Quebec. The Conservative tide will actually bring them nearly double the seats here and the softening NDP vote will almost double the LPC seats. Nevertheless, the NDP is still winning at the riding level in most places. The BQ is going to be all but shutout, as their numbers aren't even as high as 2011 despite a bit more strength on the niqab debate. Also, while the Liberals are gaining ground, many of the ridings have them so far back that it doesn't even matter. The NDP will still win the ridings only by a smaller margin.

Ontario is challenging province. The numbers are very volatile, but recent surveys are showing LPC strength in the 905. This isn't going to be the blowout that the LPC had when "He's just visiting" was their party leader. The NDP will be virtually unchanged here, as their provincial support just isn't strong enough to deliver them the election. A number of Liberal strongholds that went Conservative will be flipping back.

Manitoba is largely the same with some indications that a few ridings will flip from Conservative to Liberal.

Saskatchewan is more or less the same as well with strengthened NDP support giving them a couple additional seats, but nothing groundbreaking.

Alberta's results were very surprising to me. The CPC seat count is virtually unchanged. Yet with the additional seats added to the province, it looks like the Liberals will pick up 4 seats and the NDP 2. If the Liberals make a breakthrough in fortress Alberta, this might be the election night shocker that they'll be talking about for awhile.

BC results again are volatile, particularly due to the redrawing of many boundaries. The CPC stands to lose a number of seats due to the strength of both the NDP and LPC. The most surprising result here is that the Green Party may win two seats. Elizabeth May is safe, of course, but they're looking to also pick up Victoria (I don't think Bruce Hyer will get re-elected in Ontario). This will be something else that they'll be talking about on election night. It will be less than the Green Party is hoping for, but it will be double their elected seats from 2011.

Edited October 5, 2015 by cybercoma

cybercoma · October 5, 2015

Again, two weeks to go. All of this can and will likely change.

Moonlight Graham · October 5, 2015

The latest polls are showing a huge turn towards the Liberals at the expense of the NDP. There may be a modest "red crush" coming as people are looking to jump on any winner that will defeat Harper. As we get closer to the election, people are starting to think more strategically in their ridings, and that will mostly favour the Liberals, especially in Ontario. We saw it with the NDP last election, we saw it in Alberta.

LPC: 129

CPC: 123

NDP: 84

BQ: 1

GRN: 1

Edited October 5, 2015 by Moonlight Graham

cybercoma · October 5, 2015

I just don't see where the Liberals are gaining that many seats. They're gaining a ton in Ontario by my prediction and they're even picking up seats in Alberta. They're doubling their seats in Québec and dominating the Maritimes. However, their vote is so inefficient that my riding-by-riding analysis just doesn't put them in as strong of a position in the House of Commons as the popular vote suggests. My Québec numbers may be WAY off, but it seems that Liberal and BQ strength will weaken the NDP in the rest of the province. The problem is the NDP lead in many ridings is so strong that even more votes for the LPC and BQ will still deliver the seats to the NDP.

Moonlight Graham · October 5, 2015

That may be so CC, we'll have to see, a CPC minority is also a very likely scenario. I haven't been looking at the polls on a riding-to-riding basis, only provincially. BTW, I was just looking at the last polls days before the 2011 election day and they were very accurate toward the final vote and seat count.

ToadBrother · October 5, 2015

That may be so CC, we'll have to see, a CPC minority is also a very likely scenario. I haven't been looking at the polls on a riding-to-riding basis, only provincially. BTW, I was just looking at the last polls days before the 2011 election day and they were very accurate toward the final vote and seat count.

308 is still giving the Tories a nominal minority of four seats, but I doubt even the staunchest Tory partisan thinks the Tories can maintain such a minority for any length of time. Unless the Tories can improve their numbers, even a minority will be the same as losing.

The real story here, however, is the seemingly rapid meltdown of NDP support. They may still get a good many seats through vote splits, but the trend is very bad. No one can tell me that if they stay in the low 20s come election day that they aren't going to suffer significant seat losses.

cybercoma · October 5, 2015

That may be so CC, we'll have to see, a CPC minority is also a very likely scenario. I haven't been looking at the polls on a riding-to-riding basis, only provincially. BTW, I was just looking at the last polls days before the 2011 election day and they were very accurate toward the final vote and seat count.

Popular vote doesn't translate to seats, but the predictions will be interesting to see. I don't think my numbers will be right all the way to election day. I think there's going to be even more movement, especially in Quebec. However, I've possibly been overly generous to both the LPC and NDP in my predictions since that's my leaning.

BC_chick · October 5, 2015

Edited:

1 - Green

1 - BQ

112 - CPC

112 - LPC

112 - NDP

That'd be awesome.

Edited October 5, 2015 by BC_chick

The_Squid · October 5, 2015

It's time to predict seat counts, then return to this a couple days before the election for revisions.

I'm currently looking at a CPC minority. Seats break down like so.

Edit: **Revised**

LPC 106

CPC 120

NDP 109

BQ 1

GRN 2

Oddly enough, the BQ doesn't seem to have enough support to get any but 1 seat and it's not Duceppe's.

Green gets 2, but not Hyer's seat. I'm going on a limb and predicting Victoria goes Green with May's seat.

We will see what happens in 2 weeks. I may revise this closer to Election Day.

I predict (hope):

NDP - 112

LIB - 112

CON - 112

BLK - 1

GRN - 1

The_Squid · October 5, 2015

Edited:

1 - Green

1 - BQ

112 - CPC

112 - LPC

112 - NDP

That'd be awesome.

LOL

Shit! I didn't even read your post before I posted mine...

Great minds think alike!!

PIK · October 5, 2015

I've got that broken down by province if anyone's interested in that.

Edit: Provincial Breakdown

Edit 2: 2011 results in parentheses

NL: CPC 0 (1), LPC 5 (4), NDP 2 (2)

NS: CPC 1 (4), LPC 7 (4), NDP 3 (3)

PE: CPC 0 (1), LPC 4 (3), NDP 0 (0)

NB: CPC 4 (8), LPC 5 (1), NDP 1 (1)

QC: CPC 9 (5), LPC 13 (7), NDP 55 (59), BQ 1 (4)

ON: CPC 46 (73), LPC 54 (11), NDP 21 (22)

MB: CPC 7 (11), LPC 4 (1), NDP 3 (2)

SK: CPC 10 (13), LPC 1 (0), NDP 3 (1)

AB: CPC 28 (27), LPC 4 (0), NDP 2 (1)

BC: CPC 15 (21), LPC 7 (2), NDP 18 (12), GRN 2 (1)

YT: CPC 0 (1), LPC 1 (0), NDP 0 (1)

NW: CPC 0 (0), LPC 0 (1), NDP 1 (0)

NU: CPC 0 (1), LPC 1 (0), NDP 0 (0)

Totals: CPC 120, LPC 106, NDP 109, GRN 2, BQ 1