Greece? Add about 4% to Harper's Numbers

[poochy]

Toronto Dominion Bank today became the second major Canadian bank to confirm what Main Street has known for months - Canada is in recession. Official confirmation will take place Sept 1st - 6 months of declining GDP. Can you imagine the political implication for the governing party? As a campaign weapon just 7 weeks out from Oct. 19th, the confirmed recession could very well be the death knell for Harper's Conservatives.

We get it, you aren't voting conservative.

[Vancouver King]

We get it, you aren't voting conservative.

Thanks, Pooch, good to see message is working.

[August1991]

Lessons from Greece? As Argus would say, "small beer".

Small beer?

As 1960s Leftists would say, or a modern day Obama would organize: "Perception is reality".

=====

As we go into this next federal election cycle, many older Canadians watch TV, see events in Greece, and think about their pension. The question is not whether in fact Canada's fiscal situation is like Greece: it is the perception.

In this, several (many?) older/boomer/1950s born/retiring/voting Canadians will look at what is happening in Greece and be afraid. In general, they would never admit in public to liking Harper. Indeed, they may despise the guy.

But these voters will secretly vote Conservative because they see what is happening in Greece, and they want their pension.

Edited July 10, 2015 by August1991

[jbg]

They could start by not raising revenue, but just collecting the current requirements. I saw a chart today that showed outstanding taxes in Germany vs Greece in 2011. Germany was 2.3%, Greece was 89%. Um, that's kind of a problem.

Edit, sorry Greece was 83% not 89%

Moneys of that magnitude are inherently uncollectable.

[Evening Star]

It is without a doubt, with such motivations based both on ideology and politics...........Simply put, when Government revenue is cut to the bone, the left-wing parties are left with little to no wiggle room in promising more social largess, sans tax increases (as made evident by the promises of both the Liberals and NDP to do exactly that).

At least you're upfront about this. My impression was that the Tory party line is still "we want to preserve our wonderful social programs; we just want to be sure we can afford them."

[Vancouver King]

As we go into this next federal election cycle, many older Canadians watch TV, see events in Greece, and think about their pension.

... and how lucky they are living in a nation that has never failed to issue an OAS pension to a deserving senior.

In this, several (many?) older/boomer/1950s born/retiring/voting Canadians will look at what is happening in Greece and be afraid. In general, they would never admit in public to liking Harper. Indeed, they may despise the guy.

But these voters will secretly vote Conservative because they see what is happening in Greece, and they want their pension.

... you do realize this bizarre foreboding phenomenon would have to infect 70% of eligible seniors to move Harper's party up 4 points in the polls?

[Derek 2.0]

At least you're upfront about this. My impression was that the Tory party line is still "we want to preserve our wonderful social programs; we just want to be sure we can afford them."

To a degree, but there is also a political reality.........The Tories are not going to tear-up EI, the Canadian Health Act, CPP etc.......That is clearly fear mongering, but, that is not to say conservative "adjustments" to such programs result in a zero-sum game.

Edited July 10, 2015 by Derek 2.0

[Argus]

At least you're upfront about this. My impression was that the Tory party line is still "we want to preserve our wonderful social programs; we just want to be sure we can afford them."

The ongoing problem with social programs is that we instinctively want them to be generous because we're a generous people, but the more generous they are the more they will be used and abused, to the point we really can't afford them. When Mike Harris took over in Ontario one in ten residents was being supported by the social safety net. That's simply not something which can be sustained. So you get these weepy left wing parties promising the world, building up all these generous benefits, and then as we gradually run into more and more trouble funding them with ever higher taxes you get a backlash which brings in someone like Harris to slash things to the bone. What we need is some kind of happy medium which is not so generous as to incentivize people to live on social welfare, but is still generous enough to support them without running us into bankruptcy.

[Evening Star]

Yes, I agree, and I don't think that Tory tax breaks make this sustainable.

[Argus]

Yes, I agree, and I don't think that Tory tax breaks make this sustainable.

The problem with taxes, of course, is they stifle the economy. The government never spends your money as well as you do, especially since it has to take uhm, processing charge off the top. Taxes are absolutely necessary, of course but the fewer the better. Which means that a society has to differentiate between what would be 'nice' or 'good to have' or 'helpful' and what is actually 'necessary'. It's 'necessary' that children be educated. It's necessary that we have a high quality health care system. It's necessary that we prevent people from starving to death or freezing to death for lack of food or shelter. I think we all agree to those. Where we disagree is in how to organize them most efficiently and effectively for the lowest cost burden to working Canadians.

[dre]

No, the NDP refuse to repay several million dollars of other people's money, like Greece, which refuses to pay billions of dollars of other people's money....I see a common theme.......

All western countries stiff their creditors. The US has inflated away billions in debt in the last few years. Canada has inflated away a lot of debt as well. The only difference with Greece is that it cant inflate its way out of debt because it made a horrendous mistake and subjected itself to currency valuation and interest rates that are set for france and germany.

As for the comment by the NDP politician that austerity wont work... thats not even mildy contraversial. Greece is in a deep recession. NO government with any grasp of economics is going to implement austerity measures in the midst of a recession... thats why you see all the easing of rates, and bailouts in countries like Canada and the US since 2007.

[msj]

Yes, I agree, and I don't think that Tory tax breaks make this sustainable.

I agree.

The funny thing is that pensions have been mentioned in this thread.

As in some Canadians are going to cower in fear and look at Greece and worry about our pensions.

Yeah, um, Harper has added two years for me to get the OAS. 67 instead of 65.

So if you think I am going to give a fig about what is happening in Greece which bears no relation to anything that is happening in Canada as compared to adding two more years to get my OAS - well, Harper just does not have any credibility on pensions.

Why?

Because he has not laid out the case for why OAS needed such a measure.

Because he has allowed pensions splitting which has significantly reduced OAS clawback and income taxes for seniors.

Because he has adjusted the RIF rates which continues to reduce income taxes for seniors.

So there is money (for now) for seniors but there will not be money for when I retire and want to draw my OAS?

I presume when I retire the pension splitting and RIF rules will be different (i.e. I will be paying more tax) in order to pay for the mess Harper is currently creating.

The only math Harper has done on this is the equation [old people = more votes] so get out the truck and shovel the money like it's cow dung.

[Bryan]

he has not laid out the case for why OAS needed such a measure.

Yes he did.

He shouldn't have had to though, because it's obvious to anyone who thinks about it for more than a second: A lot more older people living a lot longer than ever before.

[WWWTT]

So Greece's situation holds implications for Canada, eh? How about the $3 trillion wiped off Chinese stock markets in recent weeks. Does this mean less investment in overseas housing markets like Toronto and Vancouver? Does it confirm a major downturn in China's economy with direct implications for our resource exports?

3 trillion what? Canadian dollars? US or RMB?

I'm thinking that's the high estimate in RMB.

Furthermore, that amount does not even equal what their markets gained this year! So they're set back half a year or so.

Most importantly, we're talking about a country with 1400 million people! Everyone forgets the 1400 million people part so very conveniently and imply that China has the population of any random western country.

The stock market in China is looked on by the people (for the most part) as a somewhat trivial western style hobby where people can tinker around with a little spending money on the side.

In the west, completely different story!

Don't transpose your western views of North American stock markets onto China's reality if you want a clear picture.

As far as Harper and the conservatives go, expect to hear the conservatives try to Chinamarketsplain this one into a campaign spin!

WWWTT

[Vancouver King]

3 trillion what? Canadian dollars? US or RMB?

WWWTT

Canadian dollars.

Yesterday Chinese markets bounced back 6.5% due partly to gov't enforcing a buy now but no trade for 6 months regulation. Additionally, less-prosperous traders can now put up their homes equity to continue day trading.

If this appears increasingly like a crap shoot supervised by clowns, pray this colossal circus doesn't side swipe Canadian interests.

[August1991]

The problem with taxes, of course, is they stifle the economy.....

Argus, and others, you are discussing possible scenarios. Your discussion, like images from Greece, raise the possibility that they may not receive their pension.

This discussion alone means a few older otherwise social liberal, gay, urban, Harper-hater people/women will secretly vote Conservative in October.

For such people, the PC police have made it impossible to tell the truth - except in a secret ballot.

Edited July 10, 2015 by August1991

[WIP]

I think that, since Harper's good luck streak has ended and he's leading us into another recession, the one last political chit he has to play, is gone, and hopefully the end of Tory dynastic dreams will not usher in another era of who knows what we'll end up with Liberal Government.

[Vancouver King]

I think that, since Harper's good luck streak has ended and he's leading us into another recession, the one last political chit he has to play, is gone, and hopefully the end of Tory dynastic dreams will not usher in another era of who knows what we'll end up with Liberal Government.

...and yesterday Harper made it clear no stimulus will be forthcoming - despite crumbling infrastructure across the country and record low costs of borrowing funds.

[Smallc]

...and yesterday Harper made it clear no stimulus will be forthcoming - despite crumbling infrastructure across the country and record low costs of borrowing funds.

Infrastructure is generally the responsibility of the provinces.

[Argus]

Infrastructure is generally the responsibility of the provinces.

Not if you're with the NDP, it's not. Their policy manual contains reams of things they want to do without regard to whether it's federal, provincial, or municipal.

And since they can raise taxes as high as they want, hey, why not? It's not like there's any shortage of money. And even if there was, we can just borrow more.

[Vancouver King]

Not if you're with the NDP, it's not. Their policy manual contains reams of things they want to do without regard to whether it's federal, provincial, or municipal.

And since they can raise taxes as high as they want, hey, why not? It's not like there's any shortage of money. And even if there was, we can just borrow more.

So says a supporter of a Conservative gov't that has accumulated tens of billions in additional debt despite being handed a surplus fiscal situation 9 years ago.

What is it about recession you find so attractive?

[Smallc]

So says a supporter of a Conservative gov't that has accumulated tens of billions in additional debt despite being handed a surplus fiscal situation 9 years ago.

What is it about recession you find so attractive?

World context is a problem for you I take it.

[Vancouver King]

World context is a problem for you I take it.

Taking responsibility for their own gov'ts record is a problem for Conservatives I take it.

After piling countless billions of additional borrowed money on the accumulated national debt, it becomes a bit galling to hear Conservatives counsel against borrowing funds - at near zero interest cost - to repair badly needed infrastructure and, most of all, to supply stimulus to counter a current recession of Conservative's own making.

Edited July 13, 2015 by Vancouver King

[Smallc]

Yeah a problem indeed.

[Argus]

So says a supporter of a Conservative gov't that has accumulated tens of billions in additional debt despite being handed a surplus fiscal situation 9 years ago.

What is it about recession you find so attractive?

That's intellectually bankrupt given the world economy was booming when they took over, and the international financial crisis was none of their doing. It\s even worse given your party leaders were basically screaming and crying and threatening to overthrow the government if billions weren't spent on a big economic stimulus program.

Edited July 13, 2015 by Argus