WIP Posted January 1, 2015 Report Posted January 1, 2015 That's great, because I don't believe the pipe dream of "renewables" displacing petroleum or a hydrocarbon economy any time soon either. I drove by the Ivanpah Solar Power Facility in the Mohave Desert on Monday and it looked very impressive. Thousands of shiny heliostats in bright sunshine. Turns out that the first of three boiler units is only generating at about 50% of expected capacity (or unrealistic power generation projections to sell the project). Meanwhile, gas was still getting cheaper in 'Vegas. One issue I have had trouble with in recent years, has been the divide between the dire predictions of what we can expect from increasing greenhouse gas leves/ and what's offered up as solutions by the crowd pushing renewable energy as the solution to the problem. It seems simple: the sun doesn't shine 24/7, nor does the wind blow hard enough on a calm day to power the windmills. So, the solar panels on the roof and the windmill can provide intermittent power if we're willing to live like most people in third world countries live - with an unreliable source of electricity. Smart meters and new regulations that allow people to sell power into the grid for rebates certainly could help reduce power demands. But, the fundamental problem is one that most environmentalists don't address or deal with: increasing energy demands from increasing economic activity and increasing populations. The renewables are not really feasible as transportation fuels, and even the windmills and solar panels could be better applied in those third world countries, where economies are growing, but people are accustomed to living with intermittent sources of electricity. And in many places in Africa, cheap solar cookers have replaced burning wood for charcoal and used for cooking. To me, the reason why the last 20 years has been one bad IPCC report after another, and nothing accomplished since the first time Al Gore started riding global warming for notoriety and profit, is that the advocates of "green technologies" are looking for profit potentials like every other industry, rather than looking at where the benefits of renewables can be best applied for the task of actually producing results in reducing carbon production, as noted earlier. Quote Anybody who believers exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist. -- Kenneth Boulding, 1973
overthere Posted January 1, 2015 Report Posted January 1, 2015 Let Canada screw up its energy sector and economy with tree hugging politics and infighting (see recent Joe Oliver comments). In the U.S., pipelines are built....wells are drilled....rock is "fracked". Then some Canadians whine about why the "damn 'muricans" have cheaper gas. Yep. We have been paralyzed for a while now, and no end in sight to it. We are a resource driven economy that is unable to help itself. BC has now screwed itself out of a boatload of LNG money. Apparently they'd rather export dirty coal. Bizarre. But.... only some pipelines are built in the US, can you think of a notable exception?. Quote Science too hard for you? Try religion!
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Report Posted January 1, 2015 ....But.... only some pipelines are built in the US, can you think of a notable exception?. I'll try, but it would be hard to find on this crowded map. The U.S. really doesn't need Canada's Keystone XL across the border, and the provinces can't agree on building more east-west pipeline capacity or refineries. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
overthere Posted January 1, 2015 Report Posted January 1, 2015 The U.S. really doesn't need Canada's Keystone XL across the border, and the provinces can't agree on building more east-west pipeline capacity or refineries. Perhaps you are unaware that Gulf refineries have already built very expensive heavy oil upgraders and increased refining capacity long ago in anticipation of Keystone XL supply.(these upgraders were originally planned for western Canada, spefically the Heartland area of Alberta. They can still be built there) And of course US traded oil companies have invested hundreds of billions, a serious play, in the source of the heavy oil in Canada. You might be able to supply the refineries with conventional oil to keep them going, but you do not have a domestic source of heavy oil for the upgraders already built. It's either Canada via XL, or via ships in the Gulf from Venezuela. Why do you hate your own refiners? Why do you hate the fisheries of the Gulf?Do you need all those workers on welfare now? Quote Science too hard for you? Try religion!
WIP Posted January 1, 2015 Report Posted January 1, 2015 Yep. We have been paralyzed for a while now, and no end in sight to it. We are a resource driven economy that is unable to help itself. BC has now screwed itself out of a boatload of LNG money. Apparently they'd rather export dirty coal. Bizarre. But.... only some pipelines are built in the US, can you think of a notable exception?. I have to say that, here in Ontario, I don't think you are going to find a whole lot of sympathy for the possible collapse of many of these tar sands projects or the Enbridge Pipeline deal or LNG schemes etc.. Because while our oil-funded Prime Minister was trying to turn us into a petrostate, our petrodollar started doing what happens to every country that becomes dependent on oil production for revenues: losing its industrial base! My working days are coming to a close....one way or another I'll be retired in the next five years, but the city where I live, used to be the hub of industry in Canada until it got hit by the double whammy of globalization and tar sands oil. Maybe we can have a little sanity here now and have some industry left, if things cool off out on in the tar sands! Quote Anybody who believers exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist. -- Kenneth Boulding, 1973
overthere Posted January 1, 2015 Report Posted January 1, 2015 I have to say that, here in Ontario, I don't think you are going to find a whole lot of sympathy for the possible collapse of many of these tar sands projects or the Enbridge Pipeline deal or LNG schemes etc.. Because while our oil-funded Prime Minister was trying to turn us into a petrostate, our petrodollar started doing what happens to every country that becomes dependent on oil production for revenues: losing its industrial base! My working days are coming to a close....one way or another I'll be retired in the next five years, but the city where I live, used to be the hub of industry in Canada until it got hit by the double whammy of globalization and tar sands oil. Maybe we can have a little sanity here now and have some industry left, if things cool off out on in the tar sands! You better hope then that some fairy godmother pays the bills for your upcoming geriatric care. Globalization of industry is a f**king reality. Those $70k per year plus great benefits semi-skilled factory jobs are not coming back to Ontario, ever. Those days are gone. Your lunch money has been stolen by Mexico China and many others. Alberta did not take it from you. So Canada better work with what is has to sell to the world, and get over this stupid, wasteful regional bickering and row this boat together. Quote Science too hard for you? Try religion!
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Report Posted January 1, 2015 ...Why do you hate your own refiners? Why do you hate the fisheries of the Gulf?Do you need all those workers on welfare now? But I don't, as I already own their stock and plan to buy much more. Seventy percent of Canada's oil production is foreign owned, profiting with or without Keystone transport of bitumen to the Gulf area. Why does Canada hate domestic pipelines and refineries ? Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
ReeferMadness Posted January 1, 2015 Report Posted January 1, 2015 This thread contains so much baseless smugness, I hardly know which balloon to pop first. First off awarding the nut bar Bachmann with any credit for either predicting or, even more outrageously, somehow contributing to low oil prices is so ludicrous, it can't stand any serious examination. Second, the celebration of low fossil fuel prices only goes to show to what extent people have a short term bias. There are lots of sources of information that show that the current price is not sustainable because it's lower than the lifecycle production costs than much of the current production. Even now, projects that will be necessary to maintain current production are being cancelled. Even worse, the lowered oil prices will drive more wasteful energy consumption such as purchases of larger vehicles, a trend that has already started. The longer term results of both of these trends will be dramatically higher energy prices. Worst still is the impact of this additional energy waste on the environment. It will undermine the necessary investments we need to make to get past the scourge of fossil fuels. Third, how can oil be worth only half of what it was a few months ago? Either markets are being manipulated or they don't work. Most likely some of both. Capitalist apologists take note. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
ReeferMadness Posted January 1, 2015 Report Posted January 1, 2015 You better hope then that some fairy godmother pays the bills for your upcoming geriatric care. Globalization of industry is a f**king reality. Those $70k per year plus great benefits semi-skilled factory jobs are not coming back to Ontario, ever. Those days are gone. Your lunch money has been stolen by Mexico China and many others. Alberta did not take it from you. So Canada better work with what is has to sell to the world, and get over this stupid, wasteful regional bickering and row this boat together. Yes, let's all devote our energy to digging toxic substances out of Alberta's sludge. Because the oil will last forever and always be worth lots of money. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Posted January 2, 2015 ....First off awarding the nut bar Bachmann with any credit for either predicting or, even more outrageously, somehow contributing to low oil prices is so ludicrous, it can't stand any serious examination. Bachmann proposed that $2.00 gas was not only possible, but predictable with more energy development. Roundly criticized at the time, her position has prevailed. Second, the celebration of low fossil fuel prices only goes to show to what extent people have a short term bias. There are lots of sources of information that show that the current price is not sustainable because it's lower than the lifecycle production costs than much of the current production.... So what ? Prices go up and down for all kinds of commodities. Right now supply exceeds demand....fill'er up! Tree huggers will just have to wait a lot longer. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
GostHacked Posted January 2, 2015 Report Posted January 2, 2015 Prices go down? The only thing that is cheaper from a year ago is the gas I put in my car. An oil change is still 40 bucks. And my grocery bill is still the same if not more expensive. Quote
On Guard for Thee Posted January 2, 2015 Report Posted January 2, 2015 Now your getting insulting. No Canadian is dumb enough to do anything other than laugh at Joe Oliver and his comments about "foreign funded radicals". He'd fit in with y'all though I guess. Quote
WIP Posted January 2, 2015 Report Posted January 2, 2015 This thread contains so much baseless smugness, I hardly know which balloon to pop first. First off awarding the nut bar Bachmann with any credit for either predicting or, even more outrageously, somehow contributing to low oil prices is so ludicrous, it can't stand any serious examination. On the other hand, she was smart enough to resign from office before that congressional ethics panel had a chance to finish their investigation of her loose accounting of campaign funds. Second, the celebration of low fossil fuel prices only goes to show to what extent people have a short term bias. There are lots of sources of information that show that the current price is not sustainable because it's lower than the lifecycle production costs than much of the current production. Even now, projects that will be necessary to maintain current production are being cancelled. Right! I already mentioned this point, which should have already been obvious to the tar sands-huggers already. It's not like the tar sands or the kerogen trapped in shale deposits are recent discoveries. They've been lying there for decades and ignored...except for some surface tar sand deposits that were used for producing asphalt for road paving out west. As long as there was real oil underground, nobody was interested in spending huge amounts of cash to get it out of the ground and turn it into something that resembles oil. It's too costly in monetary terms, as well as in energy needed for extraction and processing - EROEI is so low that it's why the price per barrel has to be around $80.00 to get at the lower level deposits. Even worse, the lowered oil prices will drive more wasteful energy consumption such as purchases of larger vehicles, a trend that has already started. The longer term results of both of these trends will be dramatically higher energy prices. Worst still is the impact of this additional energy waste on the environment. It will undermine the necessary investments we need to make to get past the scourge of fossil fuels. Yep, the buyers of these new hummers are going to really be screwed when gasoline doubles and triples a year or two from now, if the Saudis can't maintain current production levels. A price spike will be worse than before, as investors are already starting to head for the exits and pull money out of these tar sands and shale projects. The tar sands operations are big corporate projects; but many of the shale oil drillers are small operations with limited financing. They can't survive for very much longer if the prices don't return to prior levels soon. Third, how can oil be worth only half of what it was a few months ago? Either markets are being manipulated or they don't work. Most likely some of both. Capitalist apologists take note. The fun part is trying to figure out who is manipulating the market, and why? There might be short term advantages if this is really a U.S./Saudi plot to bring down Russia, Iran and Venezuela, but in the long term, the U.S. may have permanently crippled its shale-drilling industry because a return to higher prices won't immediately put everything back as it was before the fall, and there is word that Saudi Arabia is about to announce some major budget cuts to food subsidies and social welfare programs of various types. The Saudi royal family is pretty roundly despised in Arabia....as many see them as blood-sucking vampires who are extracting most of the nation's wealth to use for their own luxurious lifestyles. They have managed to keep a lid on any unrest because of: financing the wahabbi clerical establishment to provide the Saud family legitimacy, mass surveillance and brutal suppressive police tactics whenever there are demonstrations, and because of the government programs that keep the pot from boiling over. But, it should prove interesting to see what happens after they make major budget cuts. Quote Anybody who believers exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist. -- Kenneth Boulding, 1973
WIP Posted January 2, 2015 Report Posted January 2, 2015 You better hope then that some fairy godmother pays the bills for your upcoming geriatric care. I won't be needing geriatric care! Globalization of industry is a f**king reality. Those $70k per year plus great benefits semi-skilled factory jobs are not coming back to Ontario, ever. Even wages in high skilled trades have been stagnating or declining, because outsourcing is allowed by so called "free trade" agreements and allowing employers to circumvent the apprenticeship programs to set up their own in-house versions that only teach new welders, machinists, and other trades a limited range of skills, so that they can never complete an apprenticeship program. But, let's not pretend that globalization is some sort of irresistible force that can't be stopped and inevitably follows its course. If a company that shuts down its business and outsource production to China, Mexico, Bangladesh etc. was still facing high import tariffs and duties...like they were in the old days, the corporate masters of the universe wouldn't be able to play this game in the first place! Globalization was a scam right from the beginning. Supposedly, it would benefit everyone: - industry that was outsourced we were told, was too labour-intensive to maintain itself in first world nations and better suited for poor third world nations seeking to industrialize their economies. - so everyone would win...right? The poor countries would have entry-level employment, and we would have cheap products, as we specialized in more technical, highly specialized productive activities. Back when the first FTA was being negotiated, the debate was about who would win? U.S. or Canada....and with NAFTA, Mexico was added to that question. As it turns out, NONE of us won, except for a tiny, monied elite that live off of capital gains and other investment income, They and the CEO's of major corporations are the winners, as most earnings for other people have been driven down as globalization made workers all around the world compete in a race to the bottom....how low can wages go? And, let's not forget the disastrous impact globalization has had on the environment! Especially in CO2 output, as globalization greatly increased supply lines.....adding thousands more miles to transportation of materials and products. The only silver lining in this cloud is that cheap oil won't last for long, and when prices really start to ratchet up, that will provide the only practical incentive to re-localizing economies, and return to producing as much of our own food and products as possible. Quote Anybody who believers exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist. -- Kenneth Boulding, 1973
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Posted January 2, 2015 ...Back when the first FTA was being negotiated, the debate was about who would win? U.S. or Canada....and with NAFTA, Mexico was added to that question. As it turns out, NONE of us won, except for a tiny, monied elite that live off of capital gains and other investment income, They and the CEO's of major corporations are the winners, as most earnings for other people have been driven down as globalization made workers all around the world compete in a race to the bottom....how low can wages go? Meh....lots more people than that won...the upper income quintile did very well thank you very much. Canadians didn't seem to mind taking American jobs back in the 80's and 90's, eh ? And now it can't even manage its own energy sector without self destruction (e.g. Ontario), or dependence on American approval of pipeline and refining capacity that provinces refuse to build. American corporations do not owe Canadians still more capital investment or jobs. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
WIP Posted January 2, 2015 Report Posted January 2, 2015 Meh....lots more people than that won...the upper income quintile did very well thank you very much. Canadians didn't seem to mind taking American jobs back in the 80's and 90's, eh ? And now it can't even manage its own energy sector without self destruction (e.g. Ontario), or dependence on American approval of pipeline and refining capacity that provinces refuse to build. American corporations do not owe Canadians still more capital investment or jobs. Whatever the costs, business as usual has to stop! The tar sands need to stay where they are - in the ground. What I'm reading of late, is that the pipeline projects and new tar sands ventures are all put on hold because of falling oil prices. It's just a matter of time before prices go back up again; but after the shakeup in the industry, and the loss of capital investment, it will take a lot longer to get them running again. And if the collapse in oil prices has further repercussions on the stock and bond markets, then it's 2008 revisited. Quote Anybody who believers exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist. -- Kenneth Boulding, 1973
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Posted January 2, 2015 It's just a matter of time before prices go back up again; but after the shakeup in the industry, and the loss of capital investment, it will take a lot longer to get them running again. There is no particular hurry....weak hands will fold and the strong will consolidate...just as they have done before. There use to be "Seven Sisters". Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Shady Posted January 2, 2015 Report Posted January 2, 2015 It's no "game". Saudi Arabia hasn't decreased production as they usually do when prices decline. The biggest reason is to increase their market share. If Russia gets pinched as a result, it's a bonus. Quote
GostHacked Posted January 2, 2015 Report Posted January 2, 2015 It's no "game". Saudi Arabia hasn't decreased production as they usually do when prices decline. The biggest reason is to increase their market share. If Russia gets pinched as a result, it's a bonus. Playing with fire. Sanctions and other actions would work against a nation like Iraq, but not Russia with China backing them. The oil prices are having an effect in the US and Canada. The sanctions will end up hurting the USA as well. Some reports are showing that the oil and fracking industries are already feeling the pinch. I guess the CEOs won't be able to buy that new Mercedes this year. I feel so bad for them. They need to maintain that lifestyle however they can. And if it is economically sound to do so, I see the Saudi's changing sides. Quote
sharkman Posted January 2, 2015 Report Posted January 2, 2015 So what side do you see the Saudi's being on right now? Playing with fire on squeezing Russia? What do you propose be done to Russia when they invade another country? Quote
GostHacked Posted January 2, 2015 Report Posted January 2, 2015 So what side do you see the Saudi's being on right now? I am not sure. But economically via oil , the Saudis have close ties with the US. For the time being. I don't trust them at all. Because if one wants to talk about terrorism, the Saudis are good at it, and also good at covering their tracks. They are more aligned with the west, but that is only a matter of convenience. Playing with fire on squeezing Russia? What do you propose be done to Russia when they invade another country? Almost a year later and what do we see in terms of action from the west? Aside from rhetoric and economic sanctions. Anyone willing to go toe to toe with Russia? Why or why not? What do you propose be done with the USA? Afghanistan and Iraq are two recent examples. Russia is not a small player and the US would get their nose bloody in a confrontation. You can say the reasons are the same 'security terrorism ect ect'. Or so we are told. Russia did not do much when Iraq and Afghanistan was invaded, and the US is going to do squat with regards to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. Quote
ReeferMadness Posted January 2, 2015 Report Posted January 2, 2015 Bachmann proposed that $2.00 gas was not only possible, but predictable with more energy development. Roundly criticized at the time, her position has prevailed. And this is some kind of revelation? It doesn't exactly take a keen sense of observation to see that market prices stagger back and forth like a drunk wandering down the street. Of course, even this blatantly obvious statement is lost on right wing market worshipers. So what ? Prices go up and down for all kinds of commodities. Right now supply exceeds demand....fill'er up! Tree huggers will just have to wait a lot longer. It's completely short term. Short term gain for long term pain - on several levels. Of course, when you believe in a system that rewards CEO\s with millions of dollars for short term run-ups in stock prices, I guess the implications are lost on you, too. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
Shady Posted January 2, 2015 Report Posted January 2, 2015 Playing with fire. Sanctions and other actions would work against a nation like Iraq, but not Russia with China backing them. The oil prices are having an effect in the US and Canada. The sanctions will end up hurting the USA as well. Some reports are showing that the oil and fracking industries are already feeling the pinch. I guess the CEOs won't be able to buy that new Mercedes this year. I feel so bad for them. They need to maintain that lifestyle however they can.And if it is economically sound to do so, I see the Saudi's changing sides. Sanctions have nothing to do with the price of oil. Regardless, it was Russia playing with fire. Quote
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