War in Libya

[Big Guy]

So another of the Crusades of liberation by Western forces (with the enthusiastic participation of Canada through the Harper government) is continuing in a wonky direction. When the West helped take out dictator Muammar Gaddafi, we revelled in the celebration of getting rid of a dictator and allowing freedom and goodness to reign.

Well, it has now been about 3 years and Libya is a failed state. This oil rich nation has an elected government cowering in Tobruk with another militia in control of the capital. There are a number of other militias and local armies in control of other sections so the West now has no clue as to who are the good guys and who are the bad guys.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/10/rival-militias-fight-libya-benghazi-2014101591949800139.html

Maybe we should just send in a few more bombers and drop a couple just to let those scum bags and murderers (there has got to be a few there) that we are available to screw things up just in case they are starting to get their act together.

Keep tuned for updates.

[GostHacked]

Another example of western intervention to take down a leader. Again that ongoing conflict was started because the west , mainly the US did not like the fact of Libya opening another oil market using the gold Dinar instead of the US petrodollar. Some African nations were on board with this, until Libya got pounded into the sand.

So much destruction, with little reconstruction. I would suspect the gun running to the Syrian rebels via Benghazi is still going on.

[Derek 2.0]

Well, it has now been about 3 years and Libya is a failed state. This oil rich nation has an elected government cowering in Tobruk with another militia in control of the capital. There are a number of other militias and local armies in control of other sections so the West now has no clue as to who are the good guys and who are the bad guys.

A "failed state" that again is exporting oil, so much so that these Libyan exports (combined with increasing US production) will put further downward pressure on the price of oil....this of course will benefit Europe, which is the largest importer of Libyan oil.......of note, the oil is in control of the elected Government....

[GostHacked]

A "failed state" that again is exporting oil, so much so that these Libyan exports (combined with increasing US production) will put further downward pressure on the price of oil....this of course will benefit Europe, which is the largest importer of Libyan oil.......of note, the oil is in control of the elected Government....

Control is marginal at best. Like hanging off a cliff with just a fingernail. Libya has seen lots of terrorist attacks since the ousting and murder of Gaddafi.

[Derek 2.0]

Control is marginal at best. Like hanging off a cliff with just a fingernail. Libya has seen lots of terrorist attacks since the ousting and murder of Gaddafi.

And that is subjective at best......Libya is producing and exporting oil.

[GostHacked]

And that is subjective at best......Libya is producing and exporting oil.

So is Iraq under ISIS control. What is the amount that is being exported? And how does that compare before western intervention in Libya resulting in a now 3 year war resulting in one of Africa's most touted leaders dead?

Edited October 15, 2014 by GostHacked

[Derek 2.0]

So is Iraq under ISIS control. What is the amount that is being exported? And how does that compare before western intervention in Libya resulting in a now 3 year war resulting in one of Africa's most touted leaders dead?

As the linked report stated, Libyan production will total upwards of a million barrels a day..........enough to effect the world price.

[GostHacked]

As the linked report stated, Libyan production will total upwards of a million barrels a day..........enough to effect the world price.

That is subjective at best. It is not effecting world oil prices as much as you would want to believe.

[Derek 2.0]

That is subjective at best. It is not effecting world oil prices as much as you would want to believe.

So you're suggesting the report from the WSJ is false? ~365 million barrels of oil doesn't effect the world price?

[GostHacked]

So you're suggesting the report from the WSJ is false? ~365 million barrels of oil doesn't effect the world price?

How does that number compare to global total output? The production from Libya is about 3% of the total global output, and that was at it's peak before the turmoil with the so called Arab Spring. It's nowhere near that currently. You will get more of an effect with what the US, Russia or China does when it comes to global oil prices.

[Derek 2.0]

How does that number compare to global total output? The production from Libya is about 3% of the total global output, and that was at it's peak before the turmoil with the so called Arab Spring. It's nowhere near that currently. You will get more of an effect with what the US, Russia or China does when it comes to global oil prices.

It's nearly the equal amount as to what Canada produces......if you don't feel that would effect the World price, or such a sizable amount so close to Europe (~1/3rd the production of Russia or larger than the combined British and Norwegian North Sea totals) and how that plays upon both world markets and geopolitics, then I think we're done here........I will add, you've been one of the first to suggest the military intervention in Libya was over oil, but now you're saying Libyan oil production is of little mater...

Edited October 15, 2014 by Derek 2.0

[WWWTT]

A "failed state" that again is exporting oil, so much so that these Libyan exports (combined with increasing US production) will put further downward pressure on the price of oil....this of course will benefit Europe, which is the largest importer of Libyan oil.......of note, the oil is in control of the elected Government....

Ya no kidding.

Everything you mention is why the west invaded in the first place. Doesn't mean the Libyians are doing any better now.

WWWTT

[bush_cheney2004]

....I will add, you've been one of the first to suggest the military intervention in Libya was over oil, but now you're saying Libyan oil production is of little mater...

Well played...for the win !

[Shady]

Libya isn't even all the oil rich. I'd a very very low percentage of the world supply. Regardless, I don't think we should be ousting allies in the region. Ditto for Egypt. Two big Obama led mistakes.

[GostHacked]

I will add, you've been one of the first to suggest the military intervention in Libya was over oil, but now you're saying Libyan oil production is of little mater...

Apparently the answer lies in the unexpected low price of gas this season, according to some experts here. Iraq was over oil. Ukraine is about a conduit moving resources. Afghanistan, again a conduit moving resources. Kuwait was about oil. If it was about taking down tyrannical governments and not about oil/resources, then Saudi Arabia should be all but buried in the sand. Why don't we see that?

Libya isn't even all the oil rich. I'd a very very low percentage of the world supply. Regardless, I don't think we should be ousting allies in the region. Ditto for Egypt. Two big Obama led mistakes.

Obama gets his marching orders from the UN or from some other group. Obama is a puppet. Something you and I would agree on. His masters run the show, not him. Even Bush/Cheney did not really run the show. Their masters did. Cheney was just one of those evil bastards that wanted it as bad as his masters. Turned out well for them all.

[Derek 2.0]

Apparently the answer lies in the unexpected low price of gas this season, according to some experts here. Iraq was over oil. Ukraine is about a conduit moving resources. Afghanistan, again a conduit moving resources. Kuwait was about oil. If it was about taking down tyrannical governments and not about oil/resources, then Saudi Arabia should be all but buried in the sand. Why don't we see that?

Or the United States and Saudi Arabia have increased supply so much that the world price is declining, so much so that countries that rely heavily upon their own oil exports to stay afloat are feeling pressure........two such countries of course would be Iran and Russia....

[GostHacked]

Or the United States and Saudi Arabia have increased supply so much that the world price is declining, so much so that countries that rely heavily upon their own oil exports to stay afloat are feeling pressure........two such countries of course would be Iran and Russia....

I would say it's more of a tactic to push back on the BRICS nations conglomerate that is ready to start a new competitive global oil market that would put the monopoly of OPEC in check. Also they won't be using the petrodollar/greenback.

[bush_cheney2004]

Libya matters...so does North Dakota:

North Dakota produced a record 1.13 million barrels of oil per day in August, the state's Department of Mineral Resources said Wednesday.

...Sagging oil demand, combined with booming U.S. production and unexpected gains from Libya, also has contributed to the price fall.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/north-dakota-hits-record-oil-output-as-prices-drop/article/2554852?custom_click=rss

[Derek 2.0]

I would say it's more of a tactic to push back on the BRICS nations conglomerate that is ready to start a new competitive global oil market that would put the monopoly of OPEC in check. Also they won't be using the petrodollar/greenback.

You mean exert pressure on the likes of Russia and Iran?

[Derek 2.0]

Libya matters...so does North Dakota:

Libya is the North Dakota for Southern Europe.........look no further than the oil companies operating in country and which countries they hail from.

[marcus]

I suppose in your perspectives, the nosedive in the standard of living, the insecurity and all the negative effects on the Libyan civilians after the Western toppling of Gaddafi don't really need to be in the debate. Not as long as the cheap oil is flowing.

[bush_cheney2004]

....Not as long as the cheap oil is flowing.

Agreed...I don't know how many times it has to be repeated....oil matters...in a very big way. As long as Libya has proven reserves that are easily extracted, it will matter as well, just like it mattered to PM Martin and Canadian oil services contractors.

[Rue]

Bush-Chaney, the Canadian economy under our current regime allowed itself to become far too dependent on the oil sands extractions in Alberta.

Our Prime Minister with his very pronouncedpro Alberta anti Ontario bias, all but stripped Ontario of its manufacturing industrial complex with his federal policies. Our Ontario government also bears huge responsibility as well

In any event the engine of Canada's industry, Ontario and in particular automobile and other manufacturing has gone the way of the do do bird as manufacturers have moved to China and third world countries where they do not have to worry about the environment, human rights, trade unions and minimum age.

Canada has become a rump state with empty factories and an economy now dependent on exporting coal to China (which China bought out at below market prices for the indefinite future), and oil and gas to the U.S.

The problem is Alberta and Canada have hinged their economic estimates to oil at 100 on the price index certainly not 90, 85, 70 or as some rumour below 70. If crude oil prices stay low Alberta will be under-projected per year by at least l billion in revenue and oopsy the federal government's expected tax from that won't be there meaning we go into a serious deficit triggering a recession.

We need to diversify. We still produce potash, natural gas, pulp and paper but there is a limit to that.

Canada is in a bit if a pickle when crude oil goes down too fast.

Interestingly I think the tumbling in prices is triggered by speculation, no organized conspiracy. I think people like to see patterns of intelligent behaviour because that makes sense to them. Its like having a religion, it explains things.

II think the oil prices are tumbling because people panic over ebola virus, Putin, ISIS, Germany's recession, that's triggering off such bailing out on markets when we think things are looking gloomy.

When industry and economy shrinks so dos the demand for oil and gas.

I think what we are seeing is a recession taking over fromshrinking economic production .

I think the bubble has burst in China and its government subsidized economy that has been able to flood Western markets with cheap inferior goods using its cheap labour-it has nothing else to offer-it flooded everything it and don't look now but Bangladesh, India, Cambodia, Vietnam, Mexico, they are the new trend in slave labour economies who can produce things cheaper than China.

That Middle Class in China that bought all the cars, uh don't look now but they have nowhere to drive and nowhere to spend their currency. The prices in their own country are so high they can barely pay for the cars. They are bailing out sending their children to private schools in Europe and North America hinging their futures on becoming sponsored by their children in 5 years time.

Hong Kong? Its just a hint of things to come as oil prices fluctuate.

Libyan markets are a tiny bit player in all this. Point your fingers squarely at the Chinese, Russian, German, and American economies.

Its called a recession,

Edited October 16, 2014 by Rue

[Big Guy]

You mean exert pressure on the likes of Russia and Iran?

At the moment, the bad guys are Syria, Russia and Iran. The really bad guys are ISIS.

The good guys are what is left of the Iraqi army, the "moderate" Syrian rebels (who I believe no longer exist), The Kurds in Kobani who are being blasted by ISIS and the Kurds in Turkey who are being blasted by Turkey. Turkey is a good guy or a bad guy depending on which direction they are shooting. The other good guys are not from this region but are hovering in airplanes dropping bombs when they can find somebody to bomb.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/10/15/canadian_troops_entering_a_messy_iraq_war_walkom.html

I believe everybody posting here wants the dissolution or the destruction of ISIS but we seem to differ on what will replace them. ISIS is a coalescence of disenfranchised Sunnis, radical Islamists and battle hardened Iraqi (the old elite Republican Guard that protected Saddam) soldiers. If/when they are defeated or weakened another void will be created filled by another coalition who are enemies of the West. Someone in that region will have to take control. I believe that it will be a friendly Iran or at least an Iran tolerant of the West.

That would require a major rethink and agenda for Canada and other Western forces. The relationship with Israel will have to be reviewed, those silly economic sanctions against Russia and Iran will have to be lifted (the rebels are still holding fast in their battle with Kiev) and a direct dialogue with Iran will have to be initiated.

That is a strategy that I believe may alleviate the tensions and conflicts that have been created by those unfortunate interventions by the USA. That may recreate a balance of power, power from within the region not from the USA or Canada.

[Big Guy]

To-day, there was a vote for the new members of the UN Security Council. Turkey was a favourite up to a few weeks ago when it did not enthusiastically join the USA coalition against ISIS. So Turkey now joins Canada in being given a slap on the hand by the USA. Remember about 4 years ago when Harper decided to change the direction of foreign policy, Canada got the cold shoulder from many at the UN? Well Turkey suffered the same fate.

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=49090#.VEAe1chzb5o

The interesting result was that Venezuela got a seat.

Venezuela's government was unopposed for the single seat allocated to Latin America and the Caribbean. With Venezuela's victory, Russia and China has a potential ally on some international issues that have put them at odds with the three Western permanent members - the US, UK and France.

Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela's president, has ties with Iran and Syria, and has strongly supported Russia in the Ukraine crisis. Venezuela's foreign minister, Rafael Ramirez, claimed that the USA had been lobbying against Venezuela and said the win came despite a "malign campaign against our country".

The US, which publicly opposed Venezuela's last attempt to join the council in 2006, did not do so this time and would not discuss how it voted on Thursday.

If Canada is to establish better relations with Iran, Syria and Russia then perhaps Venezuela can be that bridge.