Malaysian Airliner Reportedly Shot Down in east Ukraine

[ASIP]

I cant prove that a rebel can operate the Buk, just like you CAN NOT prove that they can't operate the system....

And what do Buk exercises have to do with anything?

One more time: I should not prove that does not exists. This is impossible in principle. If you cannot prove your claim, you'd rather not to claim those things.

How could you learn to launch missiles and hit targets without exercise?

[ASIP]

Prove it... prove that noone in the Ukrainian military since the beginning of this mess has deserted...

Seems to me you are short on facts but heavy on opinions... funny how you make statements you cannot prove and expect someone to disprove them...

Seems to me you are not reading original posts and switching topics on a fly.

Let me explain: I am not here to convince you or anybody in something. You and 99.9% of guys on the forum have, may be, 1/100 or 1/1000 of information I have. This is due to your inability to read and understand Russian and Ukrainian sources.

I report what it is. You may not believe me. I do not care.

[On Guard for Thee]

Apparently, they were doing nothing wrong. This airspace was supposedly 'safe'. However, I understand that many airlines had already decided to avoid this airspace.

I don't think they were doing anything wrong per se and I have heard reports that they strayed off course to avoid weather, which is totally normal procedure. High altitude T storms so they said. BUT, the FAA had long since decided US flights needed to avoid this airspace. I guess bottom line is the extra fuel is expensive and why the hell would they shoot us down anyway? I bet that airspace is very quiet for the next while.

[Signals.Cpl]

A fragment from 9:30 to 11:40. Further comments are partially in Ukrainian.

And what exactly does this prove? I got the gist of the back and forth but I'm wondering which of your opinions this is meant to support?

[Signals.Cpl]

One more time: I should not prove that does not exists. This is impossible in principle. If you cannot prove your claim, you'd rather not to claim those things.

So you are saying that your position is impossible to prove so I should provide evidence to disprove it? Are you aware how debating is done? If not I can explain it to you.

How could you learn to launch missiles and hit targets without exercise?

Go to a military school that teaches that job? I don't see how a major exercise is necessary to train the crew, if there is a budget crunch live fire might not be possible but it does not mean that there are no trained crews it means that they are training through other means.

[ASIP]

So what is it that you are trying to say? Can you let us know your thoughts on who shot down the plane? And it sounds like you also have evidence. Can you provide evidence of that as well?

I base my conclusion on photographs, videos, discussions on forums and official information from government sources. Neither I unequivocally believe.

But after comparing several dozens of various reports you can have an idea what is going on.

Nobody has the proof that the plane was shot down. I think rebels will clear the site from the missile debris. They know the drill - they do that every day in the occupied cities.

According to all non-contradictory evidence the plane was shot down by a single shot by a Buk launching vehicle operated by three officers of Russian army. The launch site was pin-pointed by the American intelligence. It was on the south side of the rebel-controlled territory between towns of Torez and Snezhnoe. A photograph of the smoke trail came from the same place. The vehicle arrived a day before and after firing was seen near Snezhnoe moving towards the Russian border.

I have not seen any good photographs with clear shrapnel traces. But there is a photograph of a white wing part with clear rubbing marks having dark green paint, exactly the color of Buk missiles.

All this information is easily available on Internet.

Edited July 19, 2014 by ASIP

[Signals.Cpl]

Seems to me you are not reading original posts and switching topics on a fly.

Let me explain: I am not here to convince you or anybody in something. You and 99.9% of guys on the forum have, may be, 1/100 or 1/1000 of information I have. This is due to your inability to read and understand Russian and Ukrainian sources.

I report what it is. You may not believe me. I do not care.

That is so convenient, I'm telling you the facts, its just that they are in a different language to verify them... You cant support any of your claims, and majority of your claims are easily disproven, if you cant prove your position maybe this forum is not for you... you might want to go to a Ukrainian or Russian forum.

[WestCoastRunner]

Nobody has the proof that the plane was shot down. I think rebels will clear the site from the missile debris. They know the drill - they do that every day in the occupied cities.

According to all non-contradictory evidence the plane was shot down by a single shot by a Buk launching vehicle operated by three officers of Russian army. The launch site was pin-pointed by the American intelligence. It was on the south side of the rebel-controlled territory between towns of Torez and Snezhnoe. A photograph of the smoke trail came from the same place. The vehicle arrived a day before and after firing was seen near Snezhnoe moving towards the Russian border.

You are not providing information that has not otherwise been tossed around here. However, the 'three officers' is interesting. I'm pretty confident the u.s. intel were able to pin point the launch site.

[ASIP]

And what exactly does this prove? I got the gist of the back and forth but I'm wondering which of your opinions this is meant to support?

I gave you a link to a full explanation of the situation presented by the chief of the Ukrainian national security service (SBU). The time fragment contains excepts of four intercepted telephone calls where rebels discussed arriving the Buk vehicle and shooting down the plane.

All in one place.

[WestCoastRunner]

I gave you a link to a full explanation of the situation presented by the chief of the Ukrainian national security service (SBU). The time fragment contains excepts of four intercepted telephone calls where rebels discussed arriving the Buk vehicle and shooting down the plane.

All in one place.

We have heard all those calls. Translated to english. They have been all over the news.

[ASIP]

We have heard all those calls. Translated to english. They have been all over the news.

Then you should not have a problem this my credibility.

[Signals.Cpl]

The solution is crippling economic sanctions put in place on Russia's energy industry, coupled with a massive expansion of oil and natural gas exploration and extraction in North America, to export to Europe, in place of the energy they'll lose from Russian supply.

And can that expansion make up any shortfalls for the coming winter?

[Signals.Cpl]

I gave you a link to a full explanation of the situation presented by the chief of the Ukrainian national security service (SBU). The time fragment contains excepts of four intercepted telephone calls where rebels discussed arriving the Buk vehicle and shooting down the plane.

All in one place.

Yes they do discuss that, and BTW there is a translated version of the potion in question:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/07/18/mh17-scene-was-a-sea-of-women-and-children-tape-reveals-moment-rebels-realized-jet-wasnt-military-ukraine-says/

Let me see if I can summarize your positions:

1) The crew of the weapon system were Russians because none of the separatists knew how to operate the system in question.

My answer is that it is likely that over entire territory of the separatists there would be at least a few conscripts who were trained on that system be it a year, five years of fifteen years ago so it does not necessarily mean that it is a Russian crew, doesn't mean it is not either but cant prove it one way or the other.

2) You seem to assert that the weapon system was Russian and that it was and is impossible for the Ukrainian military to lose said weapon system and its ammunition and/or the weapon system was captured but it was disabled.

My answer is that:

1) Ukraine has lost plenty of equipment, weapons, munitions and vehicles to the separatists to at least make it a little believable for them to have captured the system more or less intact.

2) If it was disabled before capture it could be repaired, and being overrun may mean that destroying munitions is lower on the priorities than say staying alive therefore if the vehicle was captured the munitions most likely will be close by.

I dont think there is much doubt that it is the separatists who did it so I don't see why you are arguing.

[-TSS-]

Looking at this incident from a cynical point of view now the Ukrainian government has a free hand to massacre the rebels as much as they like without having to fear international condemnation.

[Big Guy]

As to military expertise on the rebel side, it was reported that during the Crimea takeover by Russia, anywhere from 70% to 40% (depending on the source) Ukrainian soldiers chose to stay and join the Russian military. How many of those joined the rebels in the East? Yes, about half of the Ukrainian forces are conscripts. I would assume that a proportional number came from the Eastern regions that are now in rebellion. I would again assume that many of those soldiers from those contested regions who were forced into the Ukrainian military joined the rebels.

[Argus]

The US position seems to be that some group of rag-tag rebels stole a missile system. Then somehow learned to locate an airplane flying at 30,000 ft., arm the missile system, target the moving airplane, shoot the missile and make a direct hit at 30,000 ft. - But they do not have the firepower, ability, expertise or weapons to hold on to some territory that Kiev recently took back from them.

Actually, the US position, and the position of EVERYONE ELSE ON EARTH other than Russians and their allies, is that the Russians created this mess in the first place with propaganda and agents stirring rebellion and making promises, fed in money, military advisers, spetznatz and weapons, and that one of the groups working with them shot down the jet and murdered almost three hundred people.

[Argus]

What makes this all the more tragic are the bodies that remain there with no one seeming to be in charge. I pity the families of these victims.

From reports I've seen most of the bodies are still on the ground, being picked over for money, jewelery and souvenirs by half drunken Russians carrying Kalashnikovs and fighting over the spoils.

[Argus]

What data is that? The Russians, Ukrainians and apparently the rebels all operate the same SAM system……….Who is to say a faction Crimean Tatars weren’t attempting to kill Putin? Or Chechen rebels?

And a bunch of grubby Tatars would both have a BUK system, now how to operate it, have inside intelligence on where Putin's plane is going to be, and be able to drive it around openly within the territory of Russia's proxies, through multiple road blocks? That's ludicrous.

[-TSS-]

I'm sure that many, if not most, ethnic Russians in Eastern-Ukraine truly don't feel like being part of the same nation with Ukrainians and therefore support secession but certainly not all of them support secession and especially not through an armed uprising.

Similarly, certainly as many ethnic Russians would in principle support secession the very obvious fact that these guys who lead this Republic of Donetsk are clearly nutjobs makes many people think again the wisdom of the idea of secession.

[Argus]

Under Obama, ineffective sanctions at best/worst (depending what side of the fence you're on)

What options does he really have? Given the Europeans' reliance on Russian gas there is no way for the US to make sanctions stick. What do you want them to do? Invade?

[Argus]

Perhaps, but why would they shoot down an airliner?

Clearly, they thought it was a Ukrainian air force plane.

Edited July 19, 2014 by Argus

[Argus]

This is impossible scenario.

Have you ever seen a control station inside the Buk launcher vehicle? I bet you have not. A launch (and a hit) can be conducted only by a trained crew. Especially when not having support from the two big radars normally used for firing. They must be professionals.

This crew of three officers arrived from Russia together with the vehicle and missiles. Ukrainians intercepted a telephone call of the trucker who delivered the vehicle across the Ukrainian border. The trucker was asking about further instructions. When asked he confirmed that the crew is near the vehicle.

Of course, they shot down the plane not recognizing it was civilian. It could be due to limited capabilities of the systems in the launcher vehicle.

You say it's impossible, but then go on to say they didn't recognize the plane as civilian -- which pretty much means they thought it was a military plane -- which you said was impossible.

[Argus]

Without European support…….nothing, why waste the political capital coming up on the mid-terms?

And doing nothing will perfectly satisfy the Republicans, right?

[Argus]

If the Europeans can’t be bothered with sanctions, why should the rest of the World?

Easy to say when the majority of your gas doesn't come from Russian pipelines...

Edited July 19, 2014 by Argus

[Derek 2.0]

And a bunch of grubby Tatars would both have a BUK system, now how to operate it, have inside intelligence on where Putin's plane is going to be, and be able to drive it around openly within the territory of Russia's proxies, through multiple road blocks? That's ludicrous.

Why not? Crimean Tatars, like other ethnic communities within Russia and Ukraine, had mandatory military service, coupled with centuries of distrust of the Russians.