Will Ukraine Be Partitioned?

[bush_cheney2004]

No matter which position one has, I do wish that more diverse points of view were allowed in our North American media.

What did the Sunday morning news shows in Mexico and Canada have to offer on the subject ?

[kromvelos]

Actually, what Black was doing was deriding those people you reference.

Maybe, I don't' know much yet about canadian politics.

[jbg]

The annexation of the Crimea is a done deal now as the superpower of Kyrgyzstan has recognised it as legal:

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140320/188606372/Kyrgyzstan-Recognizes-Crimea-Referendum-Results.html

Non-recognition doesn't work well with annexations. A breakaway republic is a different story since it is a separate entity desiring recognition by its peers. Annexed regions have no peers so "non-recognition" means very little. No one is talking about removing Russia from the circle or recognized countries.

[Rue]

JBG, Europe will do nothing just as it sat back and did nothing with Hitler until Churchill came to power. There is no Churchill at the moment. The US is pretty much turned inwords with Obama and left the world stage consumed with its own internal economic mess. Obama signalled the world with his pathetic display in Syria and Iran, he's abandon the world stage. He left Kerry to huff and puff some absolutely pathetic two faced meaningless comments but not much more. In the absence of the US on the world stage Europe will do what Europe has always done, nothing. It will sit back like it did with Sudan, Syria, Rwanda, Biafra, East Timor, on and on, and do not a damn thing.

Europe has no one willing to take on Putin and Putin is laughing at that openly. He's signalled the world the US is done like dinner and he's now in charge.

He's going to play up to China and set up a corupt regime in all the old Soviet countries again, one insurrection at a time.

NATO is a joke.

NATO is toothless.

Without the US on the world stage, Putin is gonna go for a not so joyful ride raping and pillaging.

The Ukraine is just a start.

This I can say, Harper can suck up to all his Ukrainian Canadian voters and make loud noises but until he builds an army capable of defending his huge border with Russia he's a joke. Canada can no longer rely on the US for protection as it assumed during the cold war. The US can not afford to carry Canada as part of its military expenditures any more.

[bleeding heart]

Rue,

Just as a matter of clarity, why would you bring up East Timor?

Major Western powers (most notably the US and UK) were specifically, materially, and intentionally involved in supporting the slaughter of the East Timorese. That's the opposite of "sitting back and doing nothing."

As for the European countries who were not involved in the killings and intentional mass starvation...sure, they sat back and did nothing. Do you propose that they should have gone to war with the United States and the UK? Even if they had the will, that would have been disastrous, wouldn't it?

[Rue]

Rue,

Just as a matter of clarity, why would you bring up East Timor?

Major Western powers (most notably the US and UK) were specifically, materially, and intentionally involved in supporting the slaughter of the East Timorese. That's the opposite of "sitting back and doing nothing."

As for the European countries who were not involved in the killings and intentional mass starvation...sure, they sat back and did nothing. Do you propose that they should have gone to war with the United States and the UK? Even if they had the will, that would have been disastrous, wouldn't it?

On East Timor yes you have an excellent point.

I am not sure what you mean about the second comment.

Europe has a history of looking the other way and blaming the US and Britain.

=

The US being the guy Europe relies on to buffer Russia days are over. Its spent economically from Iraq and Afghanistan. Its bankrupt from those wars. Europe is on its own just like when Britain was bankrupt after WW2 and pulled off the world stage leaving the US alone as the leader of the West.

The Germans have to decide now, do they take a more assertive role or sit back and look the other way on Russia. Would a resurrected Germany as the buffer against Russia be a solution? Anyone want a beligerent Germany back on world stage any more than they want to arm Japan again to be the buffer against China and Russia in the orient?

Fact is the world stage is in transition now that the US is ailing and Putin is like a young lion sensing the old one can't fight back anymore and is making his move.

Maybe the US still has some teeth left in its bite. I do not know but certainly not with Obama at the head of the state. His foreign policy is clear-retreat and turn inwords. Its the most weak foreign policy stance in the history of the US.

Whether that is a partisan choice or caused by the collapse of the US economy I defer to others on all I know is without the US a strong world presence, Putin is going to go wild and I see nothing but problems for Moldavia, Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Georgia and I see Putin going right back to trying to resurrect the Soviet Union of old. He is making his people line up for food and following them with secret police everywhere. The good old days are back. All he needs to do is grow a mustache.

The only way for the US to revive its morose economy is to morph into a new nation with Canada and Mexico and I do not see that happening.

Edited April 9, 2014 by Rue

[bleeding heart]

What I meant by my second point was, well, a direct response to your criticism: ie that European countries "sat back and did nothing"...implying, by definition, that you think they should have intervened.

Meaning that they should have intervened against the US, UK, and the others who were actively engaged in state terrorism of a size that no Islamist group could currently hope to match.

Again, you lamented that they sat back and did nothing....against the terrorists: which in this case, included the powerful allies.

[August1991]

Bump.

[Solidarity]

Ukraine is effectively partitioned, barring some new military actions. Donetsk and Lugansk are the new South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnitria.

[jbg]

Bump.

There's another Ukraine thread. They should probably be merged.

Ukraine is effectively partitioned, barring some new military actions. Donetsk and Lugansk are the new South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnitria.

Ukraine will be effectively conquered, especially given my country's feckless leadership.

[Smallc]

You expect the us to go to war over Ukraine?

[jbg]

You expect the us to go to war over Ukraine?

Would not be necessary if the U.S. did one of two things: 1) stationed a NATO unit or two there; or 2) restarted the program to install missiles in Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. Obama aborted these installations as part of this decision to "hit the reset button" on the U.S.'s relations with Russia. That, like all appeasement efforts, did not turn out well.

[Smallc]

Neither of those things would have stopped this. Also, why would you station NATO units inside a non NATO country?

[dre]

Would not be necessary if the U.S. did one of two things: 1) stationed a NATO unit or two there; or 2) restarted the program to install missiles in Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. Obama aborted these installations as part of this decision to "hit the reset button" on the U.S.'s relations with Russia. That, like all appeasement efforts, did not turn out well.

This is just pure silliness and moronic partisan tripe. Anyone trying to blame Obama for Russian actions in the Ukraine has apparently forgotten Russian actions in Georgia. Did the fact that Obama wasnt president stop Russian troops from entering Georgia? Nope! In fact... The response to what has taken place in the Ukraine has actually been a lot more forcefull and robust. Obama has at least pushed for economic sanctions against Russia. You know what Mr Bush did about Georgia? He issued a statement saying "I hope Mr Putin decides to do the right thing." That was it. ROFLMAO.

The fact of the matter is... youre just a partisan hack looking for a way to blame the ills of the world on your favorite political boogeyman. At BEST its good for a laugh.

[jbg]

Neither of those things would have stopped this. Also, why would you station NATO units inside a non NATO country?

It's called forward defense. Russia hates it when that happens. They even opposed Alaskan statehood as being aimed at them.

Anyone trying to blame Obama for Russian actions in the Ukraine has apparently forgotten Russian actions in Georgia. Did the fact that Obama wasnt president stop Russian troops from entering Georgia? Nope! In fact... The response to what has taken place in the Ukraine has actually been a lot more forcefull and robust. Obama has at least pushed for economic sanctions against Russia. You know what Mr Bush did about Georgia? He issued a statement saying "I hope Mr Putin decides to do the right thing." That was it. ROFLMAO.

Georgia doesn't have a border with NATO countries. Ukraine has borders with NATO member Poland and Western ally Austria. Also Georgia was impossible to defend without invading Russian or other hostile airspace. Before you make uneducated comments take a gander at a map.

The fact of the matter is... youre just a partisan hack looking for a way to blame the ills of the world on your favorite political boogeyman. At BEST its good for a laugh.

The world was not on fire during much of Bush's terms. Contrast to last few years. Enough to make me sick.

[-1=e^ipi]

Georgia doesn't have a border with NATO countries. Ukraine has borders with NATO member Poland and Western ally Austria. Also Georgia was impossible to defend without invading Russian or other hostile airspace. Before you make uneducated comments take a gander at a map.

Ukraine borders Austria now? Wow, my understanding of European geography must be completely wrong!

[jbg]

Ukraine borders Austria now? Wow, my understanding of European geography must be completely wrong!

I will check. I think near Lvov there's a border.

[MisArt]

Kiev cannot conceal hundreds of citizens killed atrociously by Ukrainian Army. Those bodies emerge here or there every time new mass graves are discovered. These guys keep their eye on the ball: https://www.facebook.com/novorossiya.cyber.riot.en?ref=hl

[ASIP]

Putin's propagandists have no shame in their blatant lie.

MisArt, you are pure provocateur, you don't follow latest news:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11133875/Facts-distorted-as-Moscow-claims-hundreds-of-bodies-discovered-in-Ukrainian-mass-graves.html

Do you think your post

Kiev cannot conceal hundreds of citizens killed atrociously by Ukrainian Army. Those bodies emerge here or there every time new mass graves are discovered. These guys keep their eye on the ball: https://www.facebook.com/novorossiya.cyber.riot.en?ref=hl

is consistent with the rules of this forum?

[Big Guy]

Here it is well into October with about 1,500 killed in Donetsk and the rebels or insurgents or revolutionaries or .... are firmly in control for the time being. Multimillionaire Serhiy Taruta was just dismissed as governor of the Donetsk Oblast and Ukraine President Poroshenko will be meeting with Putin in Italy next week.

Poroshenko's pleas for military support has fallen on deaf ears and a partition of Ukraine may be in the wind. The reality seems to be that the people in the area, mostly Russian speaking Ukrainians, do not want to stay with Kiev.

Not sure how the economic sanctions from the West have been working (or not) or hope those retaliatory sanctions are working on Canadian beef exports.

With ISIS dominating the front pages this conflict in Ukraine may be ending soon with an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to partition the Eastern part of Ukraine and create a buffer zone between the two countries.

Edited October 13, 2014 by Big Guy

[ASIP]

Here it is well into October with about 1,500 killed in Donetsk and the rebels or insurgents or revolutionaries or .... are firmly in control for the time being.

Not true. The only force preventing Ukraine from taking control over its territory is the might of the regular Russian army located within Ukraine and around its borders.

with an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to partition the Eastern part of Ukraine and create a buffer zone between the two countries.

Not true. It's your pure fantasy. Just look at the map. What "Eastern part of Ukraine" ? It's only approx. half of two oblasts out of 24. What a buffer zone? 300 km of the border out of 2000 km? It physically cannot be a buffer zone.

What the most important, there is no plan to partition Ukraine. All sides are talking about unified Ukraine.

Obviously I am leaving the Crimea issue aside. But it is not a partition, it's just an aggressive annexation.

The reality seems to be that the people in the area, mostly Russian speaking Ukrainians, do not want to stay with Kiev.

You've never been there, you are not able to speak Russian or Ukrainian (to get first-hand information), but you are judging about "the reality" in that region... How familiar...

Unfortunately, the conflict will not end soon.

[Big Guy]

Not true...

You've never been there, you are not able to speak Russian or Ukrainian (to get first-hand information), but you are judging about "the reality" in that region... How familiar...

Unfortunately, the conflict will not end soon.

Putin and Poroshenko are meeting in Italy. It will be interesting what position each will bring to the table.

You believe what you believe based on your research and position. I believe what I believe based on my research and my position. What we believe means nothing as to the final resolution of this conflict. Although It will be interesting to see which of our positions is closest to that solution.

[Big Guy]

Ukraine and Russia are meeting in Italy to try to resolve their disputes. The question of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine went nowhere but the Russians want what they say is owed to them;

"So let's cut to the chase. Russia claims Ukraine owes $5.3 billion for gas supplied for 2013-2014 - Ukraine still disputes that," Ash said by email. "But for gas to flow, Ukraine has to pay up for the gas supplied, and Europe has to open a tab to allow them to clear the debts. So if Europe does not want to freeze this winter, it has to lend money to Ukraine to pay off debts, and re-pay for gas. The total tab is $6.8 billion."

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/politics/milan-talks-between-putin-and-poroshenko-fail-to-produce-results-368430.html

Does not look like the EU is going to impose any sanctions on Russia in the near future.

Also looks like Russia is dealing from a position of strength.

[ASIP]

Also looks like Russia is dealing from a position of strength.

As usual, you demonstrate magnificent ignorance of the actual situation.

Russia is in the corner in the gas question. It can, of course, shut off the valve, stopping gas supply to Europe, but it will be an act of desperation, not strength.

The numbers of the Ukrainian debt for the supplied Russian gas you provided is a figment of Putin's imagination. That's why they are changed every week or so. Ukraine is ready to pay its debt, but calculated in accordance with negotiated contracts and not based on arbitrary ideas. The case is in the international court now.

[Big Guy]

As usual, you demonstrate magnificent ignorance of the actual situation.

Russia is in the corner in the gas question. It can, of course, shut off the valve, stopping gas supply to Europe, but it will be an act of desperation, not strength.

The numbers of the Ukrainian debt for the supplied Russian gas you provided is a figment of Putin's imagination. That's why they are changed every week or so. Ukraine is ready to pay its debt, but calculated in accordance with negotiated contracts and not based on arbitrary ideas. The case is in the international court now.

It is interesting that you continue to opine that my opinions and projections are based on ignorance while most of what I have written has come to pass. I have no idea where you are getting your information but I suggest that it is based on wishful thinking rather than factual reality. It would be more effective if you gave some objective resources which either created your point of view or which support your point of view.

There has been a tentative agreement on gas to Ukraine.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/10/ukraine-russia-make-breakthrough-gas-20141019604510354.html

“EU-brokered talks with Ukraine and Russia have produced a draft accord under which cash-strapped Kiev would pay $3.1 bn in unpaid bills to Moscow (that figment of Putin's imagination according to ASIP) by the end of October, with a new contract to cover subsequent deliveries.”

The EU will have to continue to finance Kiev because Gazprom and Russia have recently insisted on pre-payment, something Ukraine will not be able to manage on its own. Putin still has control of that tap that allows gas into Europe. Russia accounts for around one-third of the EU's consumption, half of which transits via Ukraine, and previous disruptions, in 2006 and 2009, led to sharp spikes in prices.

Earlier, Poland had attempted to “reverse flow” gas to Kiev but Russia has started limiting gas supplies to Poland, disrupting these reverse flows to Ukraine.

Russia continues to have the trump cards and is using them to influence the EU towards its causes.