2015 Federal Election Prediction

[Keepitsimple]

It's shaping up as a very interesting election. In the real world, Mulcair knows the NDP can't win....so they will be bashing the Liberals and berating Trudeau to maintain their official opposition - especially in Quebec......and they'll only have half the time to bash Harper. The Liberals won't bash the NDP because they will elect to stay "above the fray" and concentrate on Harper. The Conservatives will be content to let Mulcair bash Trudeau while they sit back with a more measured criticism of both Trudeau and Mulcair. And the more Trudeau is forced to speak, the more people will flee to the safety of the Conservatives - or stay home. I can see another Conservative majority, similar to the status quo. Oh - and if you really think the Liberals won't go negative? Wait for it. It'll make "Soldiers in the Streets" look tame. Fun times.

[Keepitsimple]

It's shaping up as a very interesting election. In the real world, Mulcair knows the NDP can't win....so they will be bashing the Liberals and berating Trudeau to maintain their official opposition - especially in Quebec......and they'll only have half the time (money) to bash Harper. The Liberals won't bash the NDP because they will elect to stay "above the fray" and concentrate on Harper. The Conservatives will be content to let Mulcair bash Trudeau while they sit back with a more measured criticism of both Trudeau and Mulcair. And the more Trudeau is forced to speak, the more people will flee to the safety of the Conservatives - or stay home. I can see another Conservative majority, similar to the status quo. Oh - and if you really think the Liberals won't go negative? Wait for it. It'll make "Soldiers in the Streets" look tame. Fun times.

[Accountability Now]

I think we'll see a Conversative minority. Currently the Conservatives have 160 seats, the NDP have 100 and the Libertals have 34. I have to assume the Conservatives will gain nothing in Quebec so the only possible shift there is from NDP to Liberal. Assuming all the other provinces stay the same or are too insignificant in the grand scheme then that just leaves Ontario. I don't live in Ontario so I can't speak on how they would vote but is it possible to be that upset with the Conservatives to lose even half their seats? Maybe....but they would still have 135 seats if that happened. Assuming all the Conservatives seats went to the Liberals then their number would jump to around 70. Perhaps the Liberals could steal some of the Quebec seats from the NDP but not 60.

The vote splitting on the left won't allow for the either party to win. Perhaps a merger is their best chance?

Edited December 3, 2013 by Accountability Now

[On Guard for Thee]

I agree that Trudeau will have to start laying out his party platform sometime between now and 2015, however at the moment I think he is taking a page out of Chretiens book. He certainly knew when it was a good time to keep your mouth shut and let the Conservatives keep shooting themselves in the foot. As adept as Mulcair has been at asking clear and concise question which serve to make Harper and CO. appear totally inept as they stumble with those meaningless talking points, it has not seemed to help his polls. Meanwhile, Trudeau holding back and attempting to remain above the fray hasnt seemed to hurt his. Our multi party system does always pose those mathematical problems such as a split vote. At the moment I would say Harpers future hangs in how this senate scandal plays out. It seems to get closer to him by the day, and his worst nightmare has to be ending up in a court room testifying under oath. The truth about who knew what when I expect will be very damaging. Until that chapter is fully closed, and the new Trudeau chapter is fully opened, a forecast is tricky business at best.

[carepov]

Perhaps the Liberals could steal some of the Quebec seats from the NDP but not 60.

The NDP in Quebec went from 1 seat in 2008 to 59 in 2011, while the Bloc went from 49 to 4, anything is possible in Quebec!

[Spiderfish]

however at the moment I think he is taking a page out of Chretiens book.

I think you give the young Mr. Trudeau a bit too much credit. A rookie at bat is what comes to mind, not the calculated patience of a veteran. It may be that his handlers are telling him to keep his mouth shut until they can figure out the dilemma of how to inject some substance into the content without him stepping in it.

[-1=e^ipi]

Mulcair knows the NDP can't win....so they will be bashing the Liberals and berating Trudeau to maintain their official opposition - especially in Quebec......and they'll only have half the time to bash Harper.

I'm not so sure. While it is unlikely that the NDP could win, I would not discount a possibility where all 3 parties get roughly equal seats and the NDP squeak by to win a minority government.

Trudeau and the liberals will probably be the front runners up until the first debate, in which case many people will realize that trudeau is empty. You also have to account for the fact that mulcair is probably the most moderate leader that the NDP had and the fact that the conservatives have a lot of ammo to throw at trudeau in terms of stupid things that he has said in the past.

[Accountability Now]

The NDP in Quebec went from 1 seat in 2008 to 59 in 2011, while the Bloc went from 49 to 4, anything is possible in Quebec!

Fair enough but I still don't think it will happen. You have NDP, Bloc and Liberal all fighting for spots....the Conservatives even take a few too.

[On Guard for Thee]

I think you give the young Mr. Trudeau a bit too much credit. A rookie at bat is what comes to mind, not the calculated patience of a veteran. It may be that his handlers are telling him to keep his mouth shut until they can figure out the dilemma of how to inject some substance into the content without him stepping in it.

I dont give him any particular credit until he shows he deserves it. Although were I him, especially since Mulcair has taken a firm grip on the task of Harper attack dog, I think I would cool my heels, let Mulcair keep pounding away, and see what the RCMP comes up with.

[cybercoma]

I think it's premature to make any predictions this early.

[socialist]

I think it's premature to make any predictions this early.

Who made you the authority on predictions? Anyone can make a prediction any time they want whether you think it's premature or not.

[g_bambino]

Who made you the authority on predictions?

He prefaced "it is" with "I think". Good thing you're not the authority on reading comprehension.

[ed.: c/e]

Edited December 4, 2013 by g_bambino

[jacee]

I'm sticking with a (slightly) larger Tory majority based on economic news/tax breaks targeted at middle income Canadians, the new seats and vote splitting.......

Nah, I think Canadians have had enough of Harper's controlling and divisive ways.

Jim Prentice, on the other hand ....

As to the by-elections, as often mentioned, said elections are often used as a tool by the public to send a message and protest the sitting Government

Message sent. Is Harper listening?

He can start updating his resume now.

As evident by the most recent ones, the Tories will have to learn to update their nomination procedures so as to prevent a disgruntled son of a former Tory MP running as a Liberal.

You are joking, right?

.

Edited December 4, 2013 by jacee

[cybercoma]

He prefaced "it is" with "I think". Good thing you're not the authority on reading comprehension.

[ed.: c/e]

Apparently only socialist and anyone that agrees with him is allowed to have an opinion.

[On Guard for Thee]

No matter which political persuasion we may adhere to, I hope we can all agree that Nelson Mandela's life and work was and is an inspiration. I worked a while in Capetown and then I flew myself over Robin Island. I made a circle over it as a way of showing respect, and then I headed north. 27 years he spent there to correct what was a major fault in this world.

Rest in Peace Madiba, you certainly deserve it

[overthere]

Quebec will be a key to the next election.

The separatists are not doing so well there, the Bloc is largely a spent force.

They don't like being out in the cold with only Oppostion seats in Ottawa, and Mulcair has brought them little or nothing despite a strong mandate.

So in 2015.... a few rump seats for the NDP, a token few for the Bloc and the rest up for grabs.

Who gets the rest?

"Trudeau" is a filthy word for many in Quebec, buy palatable enough for some.

I reckon the vote will be really fractured in Quebec: the Bloc gets a few, the NDP loses big, Trudeau gains a bunch and the Tories pick up perhaps 15-20 seats.

It won't be enough to get the Tories out of office. Trudeau needs Quebec big to win.

[cybercoma]

.

Edited December 6, 2013 by cybercoma

[PIK]

NDP do well harper wins, NDP do poorly who knows.

[Newfoundlander]

Trudeau is hardly going to bring change so far nothing new and nothing of importance.

I'll predict a conservative minority with the Liberals as opposition.

Agreed.

[waldo]

Dec 2 reference - (before the Harper Conservative "truth" attack ads begin in the new year):

threehundredeight.com weighted average of the latest federal polls

Edited December 7, 2013 by waldo

[Accountability Now]

Dec 2 reference - (before the Harper Conservative "truth" attack ads begin in the new year):

threehundredeight.com weighted average of the latest federal polls

45% left wing in Alberta? That alone tells me this poll is skewed. Of course no one in Alberta believes polls anyway after the last provincial election.

[cybercoma]

45% left wing in Alberta? That alone tells me this poll is skewed. Of course no one in Alberta believes polls anyway after the last provincial election.

I don't think you quite understand how our electoral system works. There could be 65% Left support in Alberta and the Right could win every single seat in the province.

[Accountability Now]

I don't think you quite understand how our electoral system works. There could be 65% Left support in Alberta and the Right could win every single seat in the province.

I'm quite aware of our electoral system...thanks. I am also aware of the misleading tendencies that polls can provide which is what I'm saying is happening here. We saw this in our last provincial election where it wasn't so obvious. This however is quite obvious as there isn't 45% left wing support nor is there any Liberal support especially for their anti Alberta leader.

[cybercoma]

I'm looking at a poll that was conducted that says you're wrong. The polls may be misleading as to the results of elections, for exactly the reason I alluded to about how the system works. However, that doesn't negate popular support. Harper's Conservatives got less than 40% popular support in the last election and hold a majority of the seats in the House. When you look at the popularity of Nenshi, the fact that the NDP holds a seat in Calgary, and what scientifically conducted polls show, it becomes quite clear that there is a significant amount of Leftwing support in Alberta. You care to show me any evidence to the contrary, other than your opinionated hunch?

[carepov]

45% left wing in Alberta? That alone tells me this poll is skewed. Of course no one in Alberta believes polls anyway after the last provincial election.

1. Where on the poilitical spectrum do you think the mayors of Calgary and Edmonton would be?

2. The Liberals are not "Left wing"

3. You are right about provincial polling in Albera - (and BC), they can't always be trusted.