Harper rises in leadership poll

[Wild Bill]

here's the link:

http://news.ca.msn.com/local/ottawa/federal-tories-and-ndp-tied-for-support-nanos-poll-says-2

"Harper's leadership score is up 20 points over the summer, currently sitting at 93 compared to leadership index scores of 48 for NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and 38 for interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae that did not change significantly over the summer."

93 %! Man, this is amazing! Once Canadians put their party preference aside, it seems Harper wins hands down as the most trusted leader.

Mind you, how we feel about a leader and how we feel about his party are quite different things for Canadians but still, it does pose a challenge for the other two guys, especially Rae and the Liberals.

Of course, once Justin T is annointed and comes down from Mt. Sinai to lead the Liberals into the Promised Land...

[wyly]

here's the link:

http://news.ca.msn.com/local/ottawa/federal-tories-and-ndp-tied-for-support-nanos-poll-says-2

"Harper's leadership score is up 20 points over the summer, currently sitting at 93 compared to leadership index scores of 48 for NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and 38 for interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae that did not change significantly over the summer."

93 %! Man, this is amazing! Once Canadians put their party preference aside, it seems Harper wins hands down as the most trusted leader.

Mind you, how we feel about a leader and how we feel about his party are quite different things for Canadians but still, it does pose a challenge for the other two guys, especially Rae and the Liberals.

Of course, once Justin T is annointed and comes down from Mt. Sinai to lead the Liberals into the Promised Land...

and layton used to be the most trusted leader did that make the PM?...it's meaningless...

[cybercoma]

Telephone surveys are skewed in favour of older Canadians. People 35 and under are increasingly getting rid of their landlines in favour of cellphones, which are not called in these types of surveys. This bends the polls towards the Tories, who are the preferred party of older more wealthy Canadians.

Edited September 17, 2012 by cybercoma

[Wild Bill]

Telephone surveys are skewed in favour of older Canadians. People 35 and under are increasingly getting rid of their landlines in favour of cellphones, which are not called in these types of surveys. This bends the polls towards the Tories, who are the preferred party of older more wealthy Canadians.

Yeah, those are factors CC but 98%? DOUBLE that of Mulcair? Even more for Rae?

It's gotta count for SOMETHING!

[wyly]

Telephone surveys are skewed in favour of older Canadians. People 35 and under are increasingly getting rid of their landlines in favour of cellphones, which are not called in these types of surveys. This bends the polls towards the Tories, who are the preferred party of older more wealthy Canadians.

hey! hey! hey! not all "older" canadians...I rarely answer my land line anymore and never if it happens to be an out of area/code (call centers/polls), if you don't have my cel number you'll never reach me and even then if I don't recognize the displayed number I won't pick up...

but ya the younger crowd are probably like me and not easy to contact which will skew any poll result...

[punked]

The less we see of Harper the more we like him. That is bad news for someone who needs to be seen everyday in order to win an election. Just my two cents.

[wyly]

The less we see of Harper the more we like him. That is bad news for someone who needs to be seen everyday in order to win an election. Just my two cents.

which is why he hides from the HoC and media as much as possible distancing himself personally from cpc...it's all tightly controlled photo-ops...short highly controlled media scrums, if he doesn't like the question run and hide... Edited September 17, 2012 by wyly

[Moonbox]

I think it's more a matter of 'not screwing up'. He's in a comfortable position with an extremely weak opposition. If he just keeps his mouth shut and doesn't rock the boat too hard his numbers will stay positive.

[madmax]

Yeah, those are factors CC but 98%? DOUBLE that of Mulcair? Even more for Rae?

It's gotta count for SOMETHING!

I think it would be foolish to write off that effect.

Prior to this turn of events , Layton would outshine Harper in leadership. But that didn't happen overnight and Layton did lead his party with strong leadership skills.

I believe Mulcairs numbers will increase as more see him and at this time the Liberal Leaders numbers are not a sign of future leadership numbers as they Liberals will go up or down with the new one.

I think anyone who dismisses a 98% index is making a mistake.

[wyly]

I think it's more a matter of 'not screwing up'. He's in a comfortable position with an extremely weak opposition. If he just keeps his mouth shut and doesn't rock the boat too hard his numbers will stay positive.

there's also bugger all controversial happening lately, summer recess and all...

[sharkman]

I think it would be foolish to write off that effect.

Prior to this turn of events , Layton would outshine Harper in leadership. But that didn't happen overnight and Layton did lead his party with strong leadership skills.

I believe Mulcairs numbers will increase as more see him and at this time the Liberal Leaders numbers are not a sign of future leadership numbers as they Liberals will go up or down with the new one.

I think anyone who dismisses a 98% index is making a mistake.

Well, let 'em dismiss it. They'll get leveled with it when Harper gets another majority!

[cybercoma]

Yeah, those are factors CC but 98%? DOUBLE that of Mulcair? Even more for Rae?

It's gotta count for SOMETHING!

It does count for something. I didn't say it negates the entire poll, but it has to be considered when analyzing surveys done strictly by phone. Normally these surveys mix contact methods to make up for this bias, but they didn't in this particular one. In any case, it doesn't mean that Mulcair is really higher than Harper. It's just that the poll is going to be skewed somewhat in Harper's favour.

[cybercoma]

hey! hey! hey! not all "older" canadians...I rarely answer my land line anymore and never if it happens to be an out of area/code (call centers/polls), if you don't have my cel number you'll never reach me and even then if I don't recognize the displayed number I won't pick up...

but ya the younger crowd are probably like me and not easy to contact which will skew any poll result...

Imagine those who don't even have landlines anymore. My wife and I cancelled ours recently because we were always using our cellphones and the only calls we would get on our landline were telemarketers and pollsters.

[cybercoma]

The less we see of Harper the more we like him. That is bad news for someone who needs to be seen everyday in order to win an election. Just my two cents.

Just remember the last campaign where he would come out, read his script, then run away from the media's questions. That's how they control for it. Just like during the debates how he stares longingly into the camera and reads his script, even if it has nothing to do with the question asked.

[cybercoma]

Well, let 'em dismiss it. They'll get leveled with it when Harper gets another majority!

What happened to "polls don't mean s***"?

[nittanylionstorm07]

The number is not a percentage... it is an index score. The number can go above 100, it does mean more than 100% of Canadians approve of the job a leader is doing.

[punked]

Just remember the last campaign where he would come out, read his script, then run away from the media's questions. That's how they control for it. Just like during the debates how he stares longingly into the camera and reads his script, even if it has nothing to do with the question asked.

He had amazing leadership numbers at this point in the last election cycle. He is the type of leader people like not see. They think he is working hard and project their own imagine on him. As the election hits and we see him out with real people his numbers dive. That is just the type of leader his is, he is a Paul Martin type. That is tough during election time.

[Mr.Canada]

The better the NDP do the longer the Tories will remain in power because the Blue Liberals are scared to death of a NDP government as we witnessed in the last election with all the 905 going Tory Blue. So the the worse the Liberals do the better it is for Harper and I'm sure he knows this.

[CPCFTW]

Telephone surveys are skewed in favour of older Canadians. People 35 and under are increasingly getting rid of their landlines in favour of cellphones, which are not called in these types of surveys. This bends the polls towards the Tories, who are the preferred party of older more wealthy Canadians.

Nonsense.

Readers should note that the data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results. Results should be considered representative of the Canadian population. Results may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Also why would cellphones not be "called in these types of surveys"?

They just call random numbers (including cellphones) and ask them where they live, age, etc. then aggregate the results based on location, gender, and age (to match the Census data). It's not rocket science.

For those of you who are interested in honestly discussing the poll, the actual study can be found here:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/2012-09-LeadershipE.pdf

[Michael Hardner]

Some points:

I don't think that they just call random numbers, they use lists however:

"Readers should note that the data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census

results."

so it's unlikely that they have overrepresented older Canadians. Keep in mind that accuracy is the stock in trade of polling companies.

[CPCFTW]

Some points:

I don't think that they just call random numbers, they use lists however:

"Readers should note that the data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census

results."

so it's unlikely that they have overrepresented older Canadians. Keep in mind that accuracy is the stock in trade of polling companies.

They use lists if they are targeting a specific segment... for example if they are calling a random sample of Bell clients (or generally cellphone users) to ask them their opinion on Bell's customer service (or their carrier's CS). When they are targetting a random sample of Canadians, there's not really a reason to use a list.

Edited September 17, 2012 by CPCFTW

[wyly]

Some points:

I don't think that they just call random numbers, they use lists however:

"Readers should note that the data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census

results."

so it's unlikely that they have overrepresented older Canadians. Keep in mind that accuracy is the stock in trade of polling companies.

and do they factor in people who refuse to answer unknown incoming calls?...if they keep calling until they meet their minimum response quota then they could be skewing the results...none of my daughters answer unknown callers and I've known a number of other young women who will refuse to do so as well or immediately disconnect...my point being a demographic that refuses to respond or be polled is not being factored in...

[CPCFTW]

and do they factor in people who refuse to answer unknown incoming calls?...if they keep calling until they meet their minimum response quota then they could be skewing the results...none of my daughters answer unknown callers and I've known a number of other young women who will refuse to do so as well or immediately disconnect...my point being a demographic that refuses to respond or be polled is not being factored in...

Good point. Highly paid executives and other 1%ers who work long hours probably don't have the time to respond to a poll. So wealthy 1%ers are being underrepresented!

Making up s**t to justify why a poll doesn't provide the outcome I wanted is fun!

In reality, I don't think any particular demographic is more likely to ignore pollsters, but from my experience working for a polling company when I was younger, it is actually the elderly that are most likely to not respond to a poll.

[wyly]

Good point. Highly paid executives and other 1%ers who work long hours probably don't have the time to respond to a poll. So wealthy 1%ers are being underrepresented!

Making up s**t to justify why a poll doesn't provide the outcome I wanted is fun!

In reality, I don't think any particular demographic is more likely to ignore pollsters, but from my experience working for a polling company when I was younger, it is actually the elderly that are most likely to not respond to a poll.

I don't follow polls other than a passing curiosity their inaccurate far too often to put in trust in...on the same day "professional pollsters" in the US have Romney ahead by 7 and another Obama ahead by 5, ya genius you go ahead and vouch for the accuracy of polls... I'll leave polls to the gullible alzheimer crowd to drool over...

[CPCFTW]

I don't follow polls other than a passing curiosity their inaccurate far too often to put in trust in...on the same day "professional pollsters" in the US have Romney ahead by 7 and another Obama ahead by 5, ya genius you go ahead and vouch for the accuracy of polls... I'll leave polls to the gullible alzheimer crowd to drool over...

I'm not vouching for the accuracy of polls... they are usually only accurate within the MOE 19 times out of 20. There's a 5% chance that the results are anywhere outside of the MOE. The poll results could theoretically be that 100% will vote for Romney, and the poll would still be "accurate to within 3%, 19 times out of 20".

I just won't dismiss polls based on conjecture that Harper is an evil kitten-eating fascist so the results must be skewed. I'll leave that to you "science-loving" geniuses.

Edited September 17, 2012 by CPCFTW