August1991 Posted October 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2012 (edited) In the OP, I had 13 Undecided states. Here's my call on them now: Romney 98 Arizona 11 Colorado 9 Florida 29 Indiana 11 Iowa 6 New Hampshire 4 North Carolina 15 Virginia 13 Obama 65 Ohio 18 Michigan 16 Pennsylvania 20 Nevada 6 New Mexico 5 In the OP also, I gave Wisconsin (10) to Romney. I would give it to Obama now. This tally gives Obama 271 and Romney 267. ------ This is going to be a very close election. I'm surprised. Edited October 22, 2012 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraychik Posted October 22, 2012 Report Share Posted October 22, 2012 I agree with you though. I have read the internals of a lot of polls and they are all over the place. Sure you have. Some places wont even post their models so you can't even get an idea of what you are looking at. I think many pollsters are playing with their models to make this race closer then it is, weighing more Republicans then they probably should but if you don't like a poll this election wait 10 minutes there will be another one which might say what you want it. There you have it folks, most polls are intentionally trying to play down Obama's massive lead and inevitable victory. I guess PPP, CBS, the NYT, SurveyUSA and the WaPo are all in the tank for Romney. More amazing insights from another amazing socialist. Unreal.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted October 22, 2012 Report Share Posted October 22, 2012 Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2008 - and they say toss-up http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 22, 2012 Report Share Posted October 22, 2012 Sure you have. There you have it folks, most polls are intentionally trying to play down Obama's massive lead and inevitable victory. I guess PPP, CBS, the NYT, SurveyUSA and the WaPo are all in the tank for Romney. More amazing insights from another amazing socialist. Unreal.... I posted that when Obama was ahead by 10 points. Just so we are clear. I thought the polls have sucked for this whole election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 22, 2012 Report Share Posted October 22, 2012 In the OP, I had 13 Undecided states. Here's my call on them now: Romney 98 Arizona 11 Colorado 9 Florida 29 Indiana 11 Iowa 6 New Hampshire 4 North Carolina 15 Virginia 13 Obama 65 Ohio 18 Michigan 16 Pennsylvania 20 Nevada 6 New Mexico 5 In the OP also, I gave Wisconsin (10) to Romney. I would give it to Obama now. This tally gives Obama 271 and Romney 267. ------ This is going to be a very close election. I'm surprised. I think Romney is going to win Ohio in the end. Suffolk poll of Ohio: Romney 47, Obama 47 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Suffolk_OH_1022.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted October 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2012 This race appears to be so close that a small wrinkle may become important. Maine (4) and Nebraska (5) determine their electoral college votes by congressional district and not winner-take-all. For example, in 2008, Nebraska split its 5 votes: 4 for McCain and 1 for Obama. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 23, 2012 Report Share Posted October 23, 2012 Obama's giving up on NC. Is Virginia and Florida next? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 23, 2012 Report Share Posted October 23, 2012 Obama's giving up on NC. Is Virginia and Florida next? Yah Shady Obama is giving up so much on NC that African American turn out is up 50% this year, youth turn out is up 40% this year from 2008 and the first Lady held a huge rally their yesterday. BTW I see you posted a video of Paul what did his twitter say like 5 minutes after that statement. Here the Washington post just wrote an article for you. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/23/why-neither-obama-nor-romney-will-pull-out-of-any-swing-state/ YOU ARE A LIAR!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 23, 2012 Report Share Posted October 23, 2012 Shady's shilling is an embarrassment. Over and over again he gets caught in lies without any response to them. Shady, for the love of god, pick up your game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 23, 2012 Report Share Posted October 23, 2012 Shady's shilling is an embarrassment. Over and over again he gets caught in lies without any response to them. Shady, for the love of god, pick up your game. How is it a lie? Are you saying that Paul Begala is lying. In the video he even says, "I'm not suppose to say this publcily, but..." So punked just trots out the stuff the Obama campaign wants the media to hear. What Begala says is what's going on behind the scenes. If anyone needs to pick up their game it's you. You're embarassing yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 23, 2012 Report Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yah Shady Obama is giving up so much on NC that African American turn out is up 50% this year, youth turn out is up 40% this year from 2008 and the first Lady held a huge rally their yesterday. BTW I see you posted a video of Paul what did his twitter say like 5 minutes after that statement. Here the Washington post just wrote an article for you. http://www.washingto...ny-swing-state/ YOU ARE A LIAR!!!! Your numbers are completely laughable. African American turnout is NOT up 50% this year, it's down. Youth turnout is NOT up 40% this year, it's down. You're like the Iraqi information minister. Polls show enthusiasm of both groups is DOWN from '08. You're just a G-D liar, as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 23, 2012 Report Share Posted October 23, 2012 In 2008, North Carolina went blue for the first time since 1976, in large part due to a high turnout of African-American voters. But with enthusiasm ebbing over the down economy and unmet expectations among key voting blocs, turnout may be too unpredictable to know which way the state will swing in 2012http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec12/northcarolina_10-02.html You have a lot of nerve lying like that punked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 23, 2012 Report Share Posted October 23, 2012 Now as he seeks re-election, the winds of history are no longer at Obama's back, and the enthusiasm felt by many black voters has diminished. The crowds are gone. The pool of volunteers isn't as plentiful, and some gripe that Obama has not made good on his promisesFrom The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121021/POLITICS01/210210306#ixzz2AAarubEa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 24, 2012 Report Share Posted October 24, 2012 Romney Could Benefit As Youth Voters Lose Enthusiasm for Obamahttp://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/10/17/romney-could-benefit-as-youth-voters-lose-enthusiasm-for-obama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 24, 2012 Report Share Posted October 24, 2012 Your numbers are completely laughable. African American turnout is NOT up 50% this year, it's down. Youth turnout is NOT up 40% this year, it's down. You're like the Iraqi information minister. Polls show enthusiasm of both groups is DOWN from '08. You're just a G-D liar, as usual. In NORTH CAROLINA in 2008 27,000 voters were 18-25 this year that number is 40,000. THAT NUMBER IS UP YOU LAIR!!! In 2008 at this point 144,331 African Americans voted this year 200,766 BTW 277,714 women in 2008 this year 359,576. I would check those voter turn out models Shady because the Republican vote is down. I think the RVs are going to be the right numbers this year for sure now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Canada Posted October 24, 2012 Report Share Posted October 24, 2012 Who gets in is irrelevant. The country is not controlled by the political parties anymore. The last real president was JFK and he was killed for not going along with the program. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted October 25, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2012 (edited) Who gets in is irrelevant. The country is not controlled by the political parties anymore. The last real president was JFK and he was killed for not going along with the program.I strongly disagree.Americans have a choice: Obama or Romney. The simple fact of choice changes everything. Obama/Romney may be like Colgate/Crest but the fact a choice exists, even between apparently identical candidates, changes a society. (I would fear far more collusion or a cartel between Romney and Obama and by all evidence, these two candidates genuinely disdain each other.) ---- Mr Canada, ordinary US voters - in random fashion - control who is president. It's a great system, similar but better than monarchy. In monarchy, the head of state is decided by chance birth. In the US republic, the head of state is decided by random popular votes. I liked the comment of the moderator of the third presidential debate, quoting his mother: "Go and vote. It will make you feel big and strong." My single vote has never changed the outcome of any riding, election or referendum. And yet, I always vote. Why? Because after I voted, as I walked down the street outside of the polling station, I felt big and strong. Edited October 25, 2012 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted October 25, 2012 Report Share Posted October 25, 2012 ...Mr Canada, ordinary US voters - in random fashion - control who is president. It's a great system, similar but better than monarchy. In monarchy, the head of state is decided by chance birth. In the US republic, the head of state is decided by random popular votes. I liked the comment of the moderator of the third presidential debate, quoting his mother: "Go and vote. It will make you feel big and strong." My single vote has never changed the outcome of any riding, election or referendum. And yet, I always vote. Why? Because after I vote, I feel big and strong. Agreed.....American citizens will have their votes counted and it will determine how electors are chosen from each state and D.C. Walking into the polling station and giving that senior citizen volunteer a big smile is fair trade for a ballot and the opportunity to participate in the election. It's a sacred political act and duty that people died for. We will proudly wear the bright red "I Voted" stickers all day at work, no matter the outcome. Voters matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 25, 2012 Report Share Posted October 25, 2012 Although unlikely, a Romney-Biden Administration is possible. If there is a tie on election day, which is possible although unlikely, and there are no faithless electors, then the vote for the President and Vice-President goes to the House and Senate respectively. The House is controlled by the GOP, so they would pick Romney as their president, while the Senate could continue to be controlled by the Democrats, meaning they would pick Biden for the Vice-Presidency. Hilarity ensues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted October 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 (edited) We will proudly wear the bright red "I Voted" stickers all day at work, no matter the outcome. Voters matter.I would favour a purple finger. I think that in Canada, after people vote, they should dip their finger in indelible, purple ink. Then, everyone would know for a day or two who voted. Around the world, a purple finger would symbolize civilization and democracy.I also disagree with advance voting, or voting on the Internet. It should not be easy to vote. IOW, I think we should vote the same way we wear a wedding ring: private consummation but public evidence, all on one day. (And in my ideal, civilized society, we would also pay our taxes on the same day we vote.... ) ----- Back to the thread: I think Romney is going to win Ohio in the end.Intrade has Obama over 60 cents now, and he's always been over 50 cents.Ohio or not, whatever the debate boost, Romney just doesn't have the numbers. Edited October 27, 2012 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 27, 2012 Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 Back to the thread:Intrade has Obama over 60 cents now, and he's always been over 50 cents. Yes, incumbents are always favoured to win, until they don't. Ohio or not, whatever the debate boost, Romney just doesn't have the numbers. Not true. Rasmussen has it tied in Ohio. Not only that, but Romey's now tied with Obama in Wisconsin, and the latest poll from Michigan has Romney tied there as well. Obama's now having to defend states he won in '08 by double digits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted October 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 (edited) Rasmussen has it tied in Ohio.Rasmussen is not Intrade.Then again Shady, maybe all these polls/political markets have it wrong. ----- Unlike China or Russia (for example), America is a civilized State where the leader is unknown in advance. But more importantly, America is a State where government power passes between opposing men peacefully. If Obama "loses" this election, everyone knows/believes/trusts that he will peacefully give the White House to Romney. America, what a country! Edited October 27, 2012 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleipnir Posted October 27, 2012 Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 (edited) My prediction.... Obama: (safe: 247) -Oregon -Washington -California -New Mexico -Minnesota -Illinois -Michigan -Pennsylvania -New York -Maine -Rhode Island -New Jersey -Maryland -Connecticut -Massachusetts -Hawaii -Wisconsin -Vermont -Delaware -Washington D.C Leaning Obama: (leaning: 34) -Nevada -Iowa -New Hampshire -Ohio Romney: (safe: 206) -Alaska -Montana -Arizona -Utah -Wyoming -Idaho -North / South Dakota -Nebraska -Kansas -Oklahoma -Texas -Missouri -Arkansas -Louisiana -Mississippi -Alabama -Georgia -South / North Carolina -Tennessee -Indiana -West Virginia -Kentucky Leaning Romney: (leaning: 29) -Florida Toss up: (22) -Colorado -Virginia Result: Obama: 281 - winner Romney: 235 Toss up: 22 Edited October 27, 2012 by Sleipnir Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted October 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2012 My prediction.... Obama: (safe: 247) -Oregon -Washington -California -New Mexico -Minnesota -Illinois -Michigan -Pennsylvania -New York -Maine -Rhode Island -New Jersey -Maryland -Connecticut -Massachusetts -Hawaii -Wisconsin -Vermont -Delaware -Washington D.C Leaning Obama: (leaning: 34) -Nevada -Iowa -New Hampshire -Ohio Romney: (safe: 206) -Alaska -Montana -Arizona -Utah -Wyoming -Idaho -North / South Dakota -Nebraska -Kansas -Oklahoma -Texas -Missouri -Arkansas -Louisiana -Mississippi -Alabama -Georgia -South / North Carolina -Tennessee -Indiana -West Virginia -Kentucky Leaning Romney: (leaning: 29) -Florida Toss up: (22) -Colorado -Virginia Result: Obama: 281 - winner Romney: 235 Toss up: 22 For the record! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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