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Could Obama lose?


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Looks like the Romney campaign is expanding operations into Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. They've got the Obama campaign playing defense. Reports are that the Obama campaign is going to be pulling advertising out of Florida and North Carolina soon, because they're lost causes.

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People keeping more of what they earn didn't lower mortgage standards. It was done by Dems for the purposes of advancing homeownership to people that wouldn't otherwise qualify.

Didn't you scurry away the last time you tried to sell that old line, after having had your pants pulled down by Kimmy? :lol:

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Reports are that the Obama campaign is going to be pulling advertising out of Florida and North Carolina soon, because they're lost causes.

This from the Republican Minister of Information. I want you to cite those reports....because giving up Florida sounds ridiculous.

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This from the Republican Minister of Information. I want you to cite those reports....because giving up Florida sounds ridiculous.

Well, Nate Silver of the NY Times is wondering if it makes sense to give up Florida.

He argues that Florida isn't all that important to Obama ("[t]here is only about a 2 percent chance that the decisive Electoral College vote will be cast in that state on Nov. 6") and given that Florida is always a Republican leaning state anyway, it is unlikely to prevent Obama from winning the college vote.

For other reasons Obama should focus his resources elsewhere where the chance of the college vote being decisive will matter.

IOW, BFD.

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Guest American Woman

You do know the largest Ohio newspaper endorsed Obama today right?

Obama appears to have the edge in Ohio, and from what I'm reading, while Obama can afford to lose Florida, Romney can't afford to lose Ohio.

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Obama appears to have the edge in Ohio, and from what I'm reading, while Obama can afford to lose Florida, Romney can't afford to lose Ohio.

The latest polling in Ohio (Gravis Marketing Oct 20) has Obama and Romney tied in Ohio at 47% a piece. The most recent poll in Florida (Survey USA Oct 20) has Obama ahead 47-46 in Florida. So it seems to be a dead heat still in those states.

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Other close races:

Iowa: Romney +1% (Public Policy 10/19)

New Hampshire: Romney +1% (Public Policy 10/19)

Florida: Obama +1% (Survey USA 10/20)

Ohio: Obama +1% (Public Policy 10/20)

Wisconsin: Obama +2% (Rasmussen110/19)

Virginia: Obama +2% (Public Policy 10/20)

Nevada: Obama +3% (Rasmussen1 10/17)

Michigan: Obama +3% (Denno Research 10/18)

Colorado: Obama +3% (Public Policy 10/18)

North Carolina: Obama +3% (Project New America 10/19)

Pennsylvania: Obama +4% (Quinnipiac 10/16)

1: Rasmussen was tied for first with Pew Research as the most accurately pollster in 2008.

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If Romney loses NC, VA, OH or FL any of those it is over however Obama can lose all those states and still win.

This is what I see as a worst-case scenario for Obama (losing Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Iowa and Wisconsin) and he still wins.

According to the polls, however, that seems unlikely.

Edited by cybercoma
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The Suffolk University Political Research Center has determined Mitt Romney is a lock to win the battleground states of Florida, Virginia and North Carolina and will not conduct additional polls there during the final four weeks of the presidential election

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2012/10/10/suffolk-polling-center-puts-florida-virginia-and-north-carolina-safely-mitt-romney-column/hQzH5It1ANgkYxbFcA1NJL/story.html.

Suffolk isn't even bothering to poll in those states anymore because they're locks for Romney. Obama's electoral map is shrinking week by week. His firewall is a picket fence.

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Guest Derek L

[/i]

Suffolk isn't even bothering to poll in those states anymore because they're locks for Romney. Obama's electoral map is shrinking week by week. His firewall is a picket fence.

If as they say Romney is sitting at 206 electoral votes, he’ll need all of Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania to sit at 268 votes……….Then add another single state like Wisconsin or North Carolina or even taking half of Maine’s votes and he wins……..without Ohio.

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If as they say Romney is sitting at 206 electoral votes, he’ll need all of Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania to sit at 268 votes……….Then add another single state like Wisconsin or North Carolina or even taking half of Maine’s votes and he wins……..without Ohio.

I'm not sure if he'll win Pennsylvania, but he'll certainly win Florida, Virginia and North Carolina.

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