Harper vs Trudeau

[Topaz]

An Ottawa paper has done a comparison between Pierre Trudeau and Harper and it is a interesting debate. Even though Harper is undoing anything that has Liberals name on it, in the end some other PM will come along and UNDO some of the things that Harper is doing. It will be interesting to see what happens to Canada after the Harper era is finished and done with. http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Harper%2Banti%2BTrudeau/6612952/story.html

[Tilter]

An Ottawa paper has done a comparison between Pierre Trudeau and Harper and it is a interesting debate. Even though Harper is undoing anything that has Liberals name on it, in the end some other PM will come along and UNDO some of the things that Harper is doing. It will be interesting to see what happens to Canada after the Harper era is finished and done with. http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Harper%2Banti%2BTrudeau/6612952/story.html

If only he could undo Bi-lingualism it would make him the most forward looking PM ever. Having said that, it makes Rene Levesque the most forward looking Provincial premier ever ---- He did it for his province.

Funny thing---- the very province for which Bi-lingualism was instituted is the only province that isn't.

Edited May 13, 2012 by Tilter

[Smallc]

If only he could undo Bi-lingualism it would make him the most forward looking PM ever. Having said that, it makes Rene Levesque the most forward looking Provincial premier ever ---- He did it for his province.

Funny thing---- the very province for which Bi-lingualism was instituted is the only province that isn't.

I'm pretty certain you don't understand what you're talking about.

[August1991]

Make no mistake, so far, Harper is no Trudeau. Harper has (possibly) lost Quebec.

As I often argue here, Canadian federal politics are all about region, not ideology.

Unless he changes perceptions, Harper will lose Ontario. Why? Swing southern Ontario voters will not vote for a federal leader without poll support in Quebec. Why? Without Quebec, Canada no longer exists and Ontario becomes Michigan, and Toronto is another Detroit.

----

Based on this latest regional play, I reckon that Mulcair will be our next federal PM.

Edited May 14, 2012 by August1991

[madmax]

If only he could undo Bi-lingualism it would make him the most forward looking PM ever. Having said that, it makes Rene Levesque the most forward looking Provincial premier ever ---- He did it for his province.

Funny thing---- the very province for which Bi-lingualism was instituted is the only province that isn't.

[mentalfloss]

I'm pretty certain you don't understand what you're talking about.

(it's because he's bilingual)

[Smallc]

Unless he changes perceptions, Harper will lose Ontario. Why? Swing southern Ontario voters will not vote for a federal leader without poll support in Quebec. Why? Without Quebec, Canada no longer exists and Ontario becomes Michigan, and Toronto is another Detroit.

Actually, the entire about paragraph is wrong, so, I'll just disregard it.

[Tilter]

I'm pretty certain you don't understand what you're talking about.

No---You don't understand what I'm talking about. Ever lived in Quebec, owned a business in Quebec or tried to educate your kids in Quebec? When the PQ virtually outlawed English in Quebec he violated the rights of every resident and when he "notwithstood" out of the constitutional rights of Quebeckers he became a dictator to about 1/2 of the population, virtually eliminating the language rights of all Anglophones in Quebec instituting illegal laws that are still standing today.

Edited May 14, 2012 by Tilter

[Tilter]

(it's because he's bilingual)

That's true.

[PIK]

Make no mistake, so far, Harper is no Trudeau. Harper has (possibly) lost Quebec.

As I often argue here, Canadian federal politics are all about region, not ideology.

Unless he changes perceptions, Harper will lose Ontario. Why? Swing southern Ontario voters will not vote for a federal leader without poll support in Quebec. Why? Without Quebec, Canada no longer exists and Ontario becomes Michigan, and Toronto is another Detroit.

----

Based on this latest regional play, I reckon that Mulcair will be our next federal PM.

Of course harper is no trudeau, and thank god for that. You sound like trudeau is a god or something instead of being one of the worst PM's this country ever had.

[Moonbox]

As I often argue here, Canadian federal politics are all about region, not ideology.

No. It's still about idealogy. That's democracy how democracy works everywhere in the world. The fact that idealogy changes significantly from region to region in Canada is notable, but by no means unique. It's the same in the USA. The only difference is that we have Quebec, whose idealogy is so completely removed from the rest of Canada that it's almost impossible to find common ground.

Unless he changes perceptions, Harper will lose Ontario. Why? Swing southern Ontario voters will not vote for a federal leader without poll support in Quebec. Why? Without Quebec, Canada no longer exists and Ontario becomes Michigan, and Toronto is another Detroit.

Wait...what on Earth are you talking about? Ontario becomes Michigan without Quebec? Please explain, because that makes no sense at all. Harper may very well lose Ontario (I'd love to vote for someone else), but it would have nothing to do with Quebec. Ontario is idealogically much closer to the West than it is to Quebec, despite what you'd like to think. Mulcair and the NDP will flop in Ontario everywhere outside of Northern Ontario and bits of Toronto and London....just like they always do. Thank Rae for that.

[August1991]

Actually, the entire about paragraph is wrong, so, I'll just disregard it.

Huh?

Of course harper is no trudeau, and thank god for that. You sound like trudeau is a god or something instead of being one of the worst PM's this country ever had.

Trudeau was certainly no God (and certainly not in my book) but I call them as I see them. Regions, not ideology, drive Canada's federal politics. And it is impossible to form a federal government without regional support.

Harper has alienated Quebec voters (the Conservatives are simply not on the radar anymore) and this is visibly apparent through polls to many southern Ontario voters. As a result, they will not vote CPC.

Look, alot can happen in 3 years but as long as Mulcair offers a reasonable alternative, I simply don't see the Tories going much above 10% in Quebec and as a result, much above 30% or so across the country. That's what Harper is polling now, and it won't change.

And in a wedge election, the Liberals will be sliced and diced and Mulcair will be on the majority side.

Edited May 14, 2012 by August1991

[Michael Hardner]

Wait...what on Earth are you talking about? Ontario becomes Michigan without Quebec? Please explain, because that makes no sense at all. Harper may very well lose Ontario (I'd love to vote for someone else), but it would have nothing to do with Quebec. Ontario is idealogically much closer to the West than it is to Quebec, despite what you'd like to think. Mulcair and the NDP will flop in Ontario everywhere outside of Northern Ontario and bits of Toronto and London....just like they always do. Thank Rae for that.

MB - Ontario doesn't like parties that poke at the sovereignty hornet's nest. Ontarians want Canada to stay together. This is, I think, what is meant by 'Ontario is Michigan without Quebec'.

[Moonbox]

Huh?

He's echoing my sentiment. You seem completely out of touch with Ontario.

Trudeau was certainly no God (and certainly not in my book) but I call them as I see them. Regions, not ideology, drive Canada's federal politics. And it is impossible to form a federal government without regional support.

Trudeau alienated the West for 35+ years and counting. It's been a wasteland for the Liberals ever since. He did more to divide the country than any PM ever as, disregarding the attention he paid to Quebec separatism.

Harper has alienated Quebec voters (the Conservatives are simply not on the radar anymore) and this is visibly apparent through polls to many southern Ontario voters. As a result, they will not vote CPC.

People in southern Ontario care little for how people in Quebec are feeling. We don't talk about it. We don't worry about it. We don't really think about it. As to the 'polls', they're not even worth considering at this point. We're 3 years from an election and Harper doesn't even really have a coherent opposition yet. Mulcair JUST became party leader, the Liberals are invisible and the BQ is dead.

Look, alot can happen in 3 years but as long as Mulcair offers a reasonable alternative, I simply don't see the Tories going much above 10% in Quebec and as a result, much above 30% or so across the country. That's what Harper is polling now, and it won't change.

And in a wedge election, the Liberals will be sliced and diced and Mulcair will be on the majority side.

Mulcair and the NDP don't present a reasonable alternative. That's the problem. I would love it if the Liberals got their act together, but it seems unlikely. The Liberal Party has always been idealogically closer to the PC/CPC than to the NDP. It's more likely that, should they be sliced and diced, the Conservatives would benefit more. We saw the same phenomena elsewhere in the Commonwealth, where a centrist collapse led to conservative pre-eminence.

If we examine things further, however, it's even more likely that your scenario won't materialize. Most of the NDP's seats are from Quebec. Ontario's 'idealogy' is so far removed from that of Quebec that if the NDP aims to cater to their base there, they'll struggle to win any new votes here. The spectre of Bob Rae's NDP days is still very real as well, and we saw very clearly what happened to Conservative support once it looked like the NDP was a contender ---> the Conservatives won the GTA.

MB - Ontario doesn't like parties that poke at the sovereignty hornet's nest. Ontarians want Canada to stay together. This is, I think, what is meant by 'Ontario is Michigan without Quebec'.

The comment was inane Michael. That was what I was getting at. Ontario doesn't really want Quebec to leave, that's true. I feel that way myself, despite holding much of Quebec in contempt. Truth is that it would be economically disastrous for Eastern Canada for Quebec to leave, but it would be unmitigated catastrophe for Quebec itself. They can bluster all they want, but only the diehards and the vapid actually want it to happen.

Edited May 14, 2012 by Moonbox

[Michael Hardner]

The comment was inane Michael. That was what I was getting at. Ontario doesn't really want Quebec to leave, that's true. I feel that way myself, despite holding much of Quebec in contempt. Truth is that it would be economically disastrous for Eastern Canada for Quebec to leave, but it would be unmitigated catastrophe for Quebec itself. They can bluster all they want, but only the diehards and the vapid actually want it to happen.

Inane but true ?

"People in southern Ontario care little for how people in Quebec are feeling. We don't talk about it. We don't worry about it. We don't really think about it."

This is true now, but if separation talk returns you can bet that Ontario will care.

[Moonbox]

Inane but true?

No. It would take far more than Quebec separation to turn Toronto into Detroit. The whole point is moot, however, because it isn't going to happen.

This is true now, but if separation talk returns you can bet that Ontario will care.

Quebec can't afford to separate. That's the cold, hard, truth. Disregard the billions worth of equalization they get every year, their economy would be ruined. Businesses and manufacturers would leave in droves. Anglophones would bail. Montreal would probably hold its own referendum and elect to stay in Canada. Quebec would end up a small and culturally/economically irrelevant state. Their only export would be hydro power.

The separatist talk is just that - talk. It's bluster and chest thumping. I'm less concerned with Quebec separatism than I am with a decentralization of power within the Federation. That's what Quebec should be worried about. With the different regional idealogies, I think it's very likely the provinces make moves to manage their own affairs more extensively.

[fellowtraveller]

He's echoing my sentiment. You seem completely out of touch with Ontario.

No it is worse than, that, he is completely out of touch with Canada, even the ongoing version of Canada that includes Quebec.

Mr Mulcair is making a couple of big assumptions already: 1) that Quebec is a safe and sturdy base from which to take control of the country and 2) his latest ploy of using nasty Alberta the evil empire responsible for the troubles in ON as a wedge issue to divide and conquer Onatrio will work.

Politics and comedy: timing is everything, and he is playing his card too strongly and much too early.

[Smallc]

No---You don't understand what I'm talking about.

You still don't understand the difference between federal bilingualism, and provincial language rights.

[August1991]

People in southern Ontario care little for how people in Quebec are feeling. We don't talk about it. We don't worry about it. We don't really think about it. As to the 'polls', they're not even worth considering at this point. We're 3 years from an election and Harper doesn't even really have a coherent opposition yet. Mulcair JUST became party leader, the Liberals are invisible and the BQ is dead.

There are sufficient swing voters in southern Ontario who will vote for the party that seems to have broad-based Canadian support. These voters feel more comfortable with a party that can gain support in Quebec. In polls, the NDP can apparently do this.

Mulcair and the NDP don't present a reasonable alternative. That's the problem.

But they do:

The country's political system appears headed for a cleavage among voters that could imperil national unity, as a new poll shows the governing Conservatives and opposition New Democrats battling for the top spot in popularity among Canadian voters.

The trend is evident in a survey conducted for Postmedia News and Global TV by Ipsos Reid last week.

It shows the Conservatives remain dominant in the West, rural Canada, and among suburban taxpayers in southern Ontario. But the NDP is fast becoming the political alternative to the Tories, with strong support in Quebec and urban Ontario. Meanwhile, as voters rally at both ends of the political spectrum, divisive economic debates loom over issues such as tax cuts and the importance of Alberta's oilsands to the country's future.

The Ipsos Reid poll conducted May 8-10 found Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Tories would receive 37 per cent of the decided vote if an election occurred now — up by three points since last month.

The NDP led by Thomas Mulcair would receive 35 per cent of the vote, up by two points. The Liberals, now led by interim leader Bob Rae, are supported by 19 per cent of the electorate, down two points.

Link

While we're three years away from a federal election, and a year or two from a federal Liberal leadership race, one can see even now how this is shaping up.

Look at what happened in Nova Scotia politics: the NDP has taken the place of the Liberals.

Edited May 16, 2012 by August1991

[Evening Star]

The separatist talk is just that - talk. It's bluster and chest thumping.

There's not even that much talk anymore.

[Moonbox]

There's not even that much talk anymore.

Harper's like the anti-christ to a lot of the Quebecqois, so naturally they do talk about it.

[Tilter]

Huh?

Trudeau was certainly no God (and certainly not in my book) but I call them as I see them. Regions, not ideology, drive Canada's federal politics. And it is impossible to form a federal government without regional support.

Harper has alienated Quebec voters (the Conservatives are simply not on the radar anymore) and this is visibly apparent through polls to many southern Ontario voters. As a result, they will not vote CPC.

Look, alot can happen in 3 years but as long as Mulcair offers a reasonable alternative, I simply don't see the Tories going much above 10% in Quebec and as a result, much above 30% or so across the country. That's what Harper is polling now, and it won't change.

And in a wedge election, the Liberals will be sliced and diced and Mulcair will be on the majority side.

Key word:

but as long as Mulcair (read NDP) offers a reasonable (and therein lies the problem)alternative

[Tilter]

Inane but true ?

"People in southern Ontario care little for how people in Quebec are feeling. We don't talk about it. We don't worry about it. We don't really think about it."

This is true now, but if separation talk returns you can bet that Ontario will care.

Yeah--- it`d make travel a lot harder for all the Maritimers having to go thru 2 sets of customs to visit home especially since none of the Que border service would speak, read or write (the wisdom of Levesque`s legacy) English

[fellowtraveller]

Regions, not ideology, drive Canada's federal politics. And it is impossible to form a federal government without regional support.

Now you are falling into the realm of wishful thinking, since Harper just did form a federal govt with no support from a region.

So did Chretien.

Your premise is that the NDP will form a government with no support from a region.

Try again.

[Tilter]

You still don't understand the difference between federal bilingualism, and provincial language rights.

If you live in Que, federal bilingualism is non-existant and provincial language rights are a thing of the past for Anglophones.

You`re right--- I don`t understand how a country like Canada, a country that preaches about it`s charter, free inter provincial freedom of passage & trade (what a laugh) can allow one of it`s member provinces abrogate the language right`s of 20 % of it`s Canadian residents.