Chretien says LPC and NDP should merge

[Newfoundlander]

Funny how that it is only in most cases the liberals that want merger.

WWWTT

Polling has shown that Liberals and NDP are pretty equal in heir support for the idea. Besides Chretien I haven't heard any high-profile Liberals say the parties should merge, and as Chretien said he's only a small town lawyer trying to earn a living.

[August1991]

Then we have Bob Rae saying no to a merger.

And Mulcair has said the same. Indeed, Mulcair has been understandably adamant.

IMHO, it won't happen. There will be no formal merger like McKay, Harper, Stronach and Manning. No vote.

-----

At most, Trudeau Jnr will cross the aisle. But then Mulcair's bigger problem will be (as others have noted) when Dion also wants to cross the aisle.

Edited April 17, 2012 by August1991

[cybercoma]

All this merger talk simply shows that the Liberals are not only a brokerage party, but they're a desperate brokerage party that will literally do anything to stay in power.

[waldo]

All this merger talk simply shows that the Liberals are not only a brokerage party, but they're a desperate brokerage party that will literally do anything to stay in power.

and a decade of Harper Conservative government isn't/won't be enough... for you? We're now just getting a taste of the majority - do you really believe, with a split Opposition, a viable single party alternative (as they exist today) can defeat a united 'right'?

[cybercoma]

and a decade of Harper Conservative government isn't/won't be enough... for you? We're now just getting a taste of the majority - do you really believe, with a split Opposition, a viable single party alternative (as they exist today) can defeat a united 'right'?

Yes or through a Liberal/NDP coalition. They certainly don't need to merge.

[waldo]

Yes or through a Liberal/NDP coalition. They certainly don't need to merge.

the Canadian public isn't sophisticated enough to understand coalitions are viable working alternatives; clearly, the Harper Conservatives have done their "magic" to seriously undercut an acceptance of coalition government for some time. In any case, still effectively minority government... and yes, we've seen some minority governments work quite well. But in the political climate of today, and the relatively near future, I just don't see an ability to truly realize an alternate majority ruling government. It's equally clear that the Canadian public isn't sophisticated enough... perhaps isn't caring enough... to hold Harper Conservatives accountable for their past/current failings.

[Moonlight Graham]

and a decade of Harper Conservative government isn't/won't be enough... for you? We're now just getting a taste of the majority - do you really believe, with a split Opposition, a viable single party alternative (as they exist today) can defeat a united 'right'?

The CPC has a majority because the other left-wing parties have been lousy alternatives in recent years. Of course, the LPC (and Bloc) were so bad the NDP are now the opposition! A decent LPC with a respectable leader, and maybe even a decent NDP given recent polls, can win a federal election over the CPC. Most Canadians are not conservative, but most Canadians do want a half-decent party & leader that can actually govern somewhat effectively, which is what the CPC/Harper better than the others.

The LPC needs to dump Rae and find a real leader, and then it will be on its way back.

[waldo]

The CPC has a majority because the other left-wing parties have been lousy alternatives in recent years. Of course, the LPC (and Bloc) were so bad the NDP are now the opposition! A decent LPC with a respectable leader, and maybe even a decent NDP given recent polls, can win a federal election over the CPC. Most Canadians are not conservative, but most Canadians do want a half-decent party & leader that can actually govern somewhat effectively, which is what the CPC/Harper better than the others.

I don't share your optimism... split voting has been, and will continue to be the way Harper Conservatives maintain government rule. There is no willingness within the Opposition parties to align towards strategic seat voting... and again, the way Harper Conservatives have so sullied coalition governing, an up-front coalition announcement, pre-election, would never stand a chance given the Conservative 'attack machine'.

The LPC needs to dump Rae and find a real leader, and then it will be on its way back.

yes, Rae can't extend beyond interim status; however, no matter who the next alternate Liberal leader is, I don't see the Liberals... or the NDP... gaining enough support to dislodge the 38% of the Canadian public that will continue to vote for the right, regardless of whatever failed policy it continues to bring forward.

[Guest Derek L]

the Canadian public isn't sophisticated enough to understand coalitions are viable working alternatives; clearly, the Harper Conservatives have done their "magic" to seriously undercut an acceptance of coalition government for some time. In any case, still effectively minority government... and yes, we've seen some minority governments work quite well. But in the political climate of today, and the relatively near future, I just don't see an ability to truly realize an alternate majority ruling government. It's equally clear that the Canadian public isn't sophisticated enough... perhaps isn't caring enough... to hold Harper Conservatives accountable for their past/current failings.

They only understand Beer and Popcorn?

[waldo]

They only understand Beer and Popcorn?

I relish the opportunity for you to speak to the political sophistication levels of the general Canadian public - go for it!

[Guest Derek L]

I relish the opportunity for you to speak to the political sophistication levels of the general Canadian public - go for it!

I wouldn’t paint the public’s political sophistication levels with such a wide brush…….At least not publicly…….I would opine that most tend to hold a negative view when it’s suggested they’re morons though……..Did you ever consider it was you? You know, the whole living in and believing in social democratic castles in the clouds………And you called me a pompous ass……Jesus Christ.

[cybercoma]

waldo, I think you may be a tad overly cynical here.

I tend to agree with Moonlight Graham. Weak leadership on the part of the Liberals weakened them considerably and people are just beginning to see the NDP as a viable alternative.

In 1980, the Liberals managed to win with Trudeau against a single party on the Right and a strong NDP under Broadbent. Although Trudeau had a majority, he didn't have a single MP from the West to put in his cabinet. He approached Broadbent to form a coalition then, so he could use NDP MPs from the West in his cabinet. Eventually he would appoint Senators and have them appointed them to cabinet instead.

It's possible to defeat a united Right.

I have a feeling we'll see a fracturing of the Right before long, however. Look at the WR Party in Alberta. There has already been rumblings of more conservative MPs, particularly social conservatives, disagreeing with Harper. Now that he has a majority, they're expecting to get their way. Brad Trost has been surprisingly vocal about this. They're in power now, so it won't happen immediately. However, if more Tea-Party-esque Conservatives don't begin getting their way, they may just begin to feel as though it's pointless to remain in a party that doesn't give them their way.

[mentalfloss]

They won't merge and they shouldn't.

What will happen is this:

The CPC will win a minority government in the next election. The left including Bloc, NDP, Libs and Green will all form a coalition against the CPC because they can't take the corruption any longer.

That's what is going to happen.

I'm calling it now.

And waldo is correct about the public. A lot of people are still stuck in the ideology phase.

Edited April 17, 2012 by mentalfloss

[huh]

Funny how that it is only in most cases the liberals that want merger.

WWWTT

Power before principle, thats really the liberal way.

[madmax]

If Chretien suggested it, we should do the opposite.

More parties = better for the country.

Just look at how things can quickly change. The Conservatives were the PC's and Reform not so long ago. It can happen again.

Ironcically the BQ/Reform were the PCs not so long ago...

[madmax]

Polling has shown that Liberals and NDP are pretty equal in heir support for the idea.

You would find similar numbers of support if the Liberal supporters asked the question about merging with the Conservatives.

Equal in support actually results in LESS support then one party has on their own. As those opposed to the idea LEAVE and go to ANOTHER existing party or a new party.

One might wonder why the NDP got Stronger at the same time the creation of the Conservative Party occurred?

There are a few reasons for the NDPs growth, but early on, before they had done any groundwork, they got a bump from 2 different bases leaving this new Conservative party. NDP supporters moved to the Reform Party and held their vote their, even through the Change to the Canadian Alliance, but once the merger with the PCs occurred, they choose not to support the change. The Other base was from disgruntled Longtime PC supporters.. Red Tories.... whos enemy is the LIBERAL party but would not support the Republican direction of the Conservatives and still held a grudge against the Reform Party.

In Irony of Ironies the NDP gained from the merger... so too did the Green Party, as Red Tories who could NEVER support the new Conservatives, or the Liberals OR the NDP went with the Green Option.

Not Much has changed and I am not a believer that Electioneering the parties results in success.

You have to earn the publics respect... if Harper never succeeded, then you would not see him in government regardless of the Rightwing Merger... and the same would be true with a merger of the NDP and Liberals.

But the Fallout from an NDP/LPC merger would be larger then the PC/CA merger as most who vote Liberal today would NOT vote NDP, but would choose the Tories first.

Strange examples on micro level.

Central Nova... Conservative Mackay is challenged by NDP candidate comes within striking distance, Libs competitive 3rd, Greens distant 4th.

Liberals Standdown to support MAY, Many NDP move to the Green Camp, Many Liberals move to Green camp.. but where did the other votes go? MACKAY! His votes went up... when facing less parties.. then the previous campaign.

Come next election cycle, and Mackays numbers go back down and other parties numbers rise, with all parties running their candidates.

On the last note... the Liberals have more in common with the Conservatives then with the NDP. Sure the Liberals share some policy positions, but so do Red Tories, and So do some remanent reformers, and so do some Conservatives share policies with the NDP. But the broadest support is between the LPC and CPC and not the NDP and LPC.

[madmax]

the Canadian public isn't sophisticated enough to understand coalitions are viable working alternatives; clearly, the Harper Conservatives have done their "magic" to seriously undercut an acceptance of coalition government for some time.

Don't blame the Harper Government for the failure of the Coalition. Ignatieff pulled a coup over Dion and then Reneged as leader to follow through on the coalition. Ignatieff helped give it a bad name. Now imagine if he ignored the polls, and tried to run a government based upon the agreed agenda? I don't have a crystal ball, but the public could decide on the value of the coalition based on its success or failure.

Just because Harper said it was bad medicine (and it was for him, he nearly lost power) it is his JOB to run down the idea and sway opinion.

Unfortuneately for the Liberals, they had two weak leaders back to back.

[cybercoma]

It's simple really. The Liberals cannot survive. They're a party that stands for a little bit of everything, but not a lot of anything. People want a clear vision of a party's purpose. You only get that with the CPC and NDP. Being a centrist is meaningless.

[madmax]

One can play endlessly with individual ridings.... But I am just trying to show that you cannot assume that merger 2 numbers together gets you growth.

Toronto Centre 2000

PC = 8,150

CA= 5,057

Total = 13000*

Toronto Centre 2004

Conservative =7,936

Whereas the NDP went from

5000 to 12000 votes in the same election cycle.

This riding has only ever been held by Progressive Conservatives and Liberals. PC highmark is around 24000 votes

Today , Close to 1 decade after the merger the Conservatives have roughly 12000 votes and sit in 3rd... whereas they used to be first or 2nd.. for the past 100 years running as Conservatives or Progressive Conservatives depending on the era.

[madmax]

It's simple really. The Liberals cannot survive. They're a party that stands for a little bit of everything, but not a lot of anything. People want a clear vision of a party's purpose. You only get that with the CPC and NDP. Being a centrist is meaningless.

Not necessarily so...Yes you have described the Modern LPC accurately, however, Both the CPC and NDP can suffer from plagues that infest all governments over time. Laziness, entitlement, corruption, lack of direction.. and it may not be in the best interests to change the direction from a sharp right to a sharp left (Or visa versa), when all is required is good government and maintaining the current direction (whatever that may be) but with a more hungry and rejuvenated party. Any 3rd party can take on that role.

One would probably have preferred that the Cons govern more fiscally responsible like the Liberals did during their period, but do it without the corruption and arrogance.

Seems we got the latter and not the former.

Edited April 17, 2012 by madmax

[PIK]

The reason harper has a majority and will have another one is...............he is doing a great job, not perfect which will never happen ,but a good job. And in 3-4 years people will realize that and some will hold thier nose and vote for him, because they understand he is doing a good job. It is very simple.

[WWWTT]

Polling has shown that Liberals and NDP are pretty equal in heir support for the idea. Besides Chretien I haven't heard any high-profile Liberals say the parties should merge, and as Chretien said he's only a small town lawyer trying to earn a living.

Polling among NDP members?

I think not!

WWWTT

[madmax]

The reason harper has a majority and will have another one is...............he is doing a great job, not perfect which will never happen ,but a good job. And in 3-4 years people will realize that and some will hold thier nose and vote for him, because they understand he is doing a good job. It is very simple.

1) If one takes the position of the first sentence... then it supports the position that it is not simply a merger that brings one to vote for a political party.

2) The merger didn't immediately launch Harper to government.

3) I believe the campaign of Harper was successful. A good campaign can produce a positive government image in spite of running the largest deficit in Canadian History. Its better marketing and branding then actual competence.

4) Many will hold their noses.. its called the incumbency factor and many did that during the Liberal period where the books were balanced but corruption prevailed behind the scenes. Finally something has to give.

Mulroney got 2 terms and the largest Majorities in History, while running the largest deficits in history and taxing us to death. Harpers Deficit is now the largest in History.

[Evening Star]

Polling has shown that Liberals and NDP are pretty equal in heir support for the idea. Besides Chretien I haven't heard any high-profile Liberals say the parties should merge, and as Chretien said he's only a small town lawyer trying to earn a living.

Warren Kinsella

[bleeding heart]

The reason harper has a majority and will have another one is...............he is doing a great job, not perfect which will never happen ,but a good job. And in 3-4 years people will realize that and some will hold thier nose and vote for him, because they understand he is doing a good job. It is very simple.

Such praise for successful electoral politics must, of course, be automatically extrapolated to every party's success in every case.

This is the first time I've heard you praise the remarkable Liberal electoral successes over the years. I didn't realize you thought they had done such a "great job."