Will Justin Trudeau Cross the Aisle?

[Newfoundlander]

Oh ya that's right!

A conservative one to right?

But he still did not have the same stigma attachment.

Don't believe me?Do a snap quiz and ask how many people who Jacks father is,then ask who was Justins.

Still this gives me some food for thought.

Yesterday I was at the NDP Chinese committee advisory.

I had the opportunity to talk with several MP's.

Olivia Chow, Peggy Nash and the last one I forget.She is the MP for Scarborough Rouge River and she is Tamil/young.

However this was a tight nit meeting and I will not disclose any more then that.

WWWTT

So because someone's name is less known means they are less privileged?

Layton's grandfather was a cabinet minister and his father owned and engineering firm before becoming an MP, by the sounds of it they likely had a fair bit of money.

[punked]

So because someone's name is less known means they are less privileged?

Layton's grandfather was a cabinet minister and his father owned and engineering firm before becoming an MP, by the sounds of it they likely had a fair bit of money.

I thought it was his father who was the cabinet minister I thought his grandfather founded an organization for the blind?

[jbg]

5. Like his Mom, Justin's a flake. He'll go for the switch.

The most trenchant observation here. One I agree with.

[August1991]

I believe the NDP is about co-operation and working together with everyone. In fact, this is why the Communists hated the CCF and the precursor politicians to the CCF at that time. Communism is about conflict. The NDP has never been Communist and has never been about conflict.

Laurier referred to "Sunny Ways" in his 1896 campaign.

In the past century, I think such an approach would be called "Appeasement". In this century, it might work.

Does that not sound fitting for a Tory? Fiscal prudence? Until this post, I was sure he would jump to the NDP,,, but now I really think he may jump to the Tories!

Zero chance. Justin Trudeau's references to Harper and Quebec sovereignty made that plain.

----

There are two competing views in Quebec about why the NDP did so well in 2011:

Argument One (popular among federalists): Quebecers are tired of the sovereignty/federalist debate and they are looking for any exit door. Layton offered one.

Argument Two (popular among sovereignists): Quebecers hated Harper and his Conservatives and voted for the federal party most likely to prevent Harper forming a majority.

In Quebec, Justin Trudeau is identified as a strong federalist - no need to make Argument One. His interview comment about Harper made Argument Two.

Smart.

(And I will give credit to Trudeau Jnr for choosing to run in Papineau, and then getting elected there twice. His father took a different route to parliament.)

[August1991]

I thought it was his father who was the cabinet minister I thought his grandfather founded an organization for the blind?

Jack Layton's father was a federal PC MP elected in Quebec (Lachine, I think) and a member of Mulroney's cabinet.

Jack Layton was born in Hudson, Quebec. It's like Westchester, New York.

For a long time, Layton Audio was an electronics shop on the western, English part of Ste-Catherine (the Oxford Street of Montreal). Maybe the shop is still there.

Edited June 18, 2012 by August1991

[jacee]

Liberal leadership: Justin Trudeau could lead Liberals to first place, new poll shows

It's doubtful he'll be jumping anywhere.

Edited June 18, 2012 by jacee

[cybercoma]

Link to Angus Reid

Above is the link to the actual posting by Angus Reid.

I think punked is right about Trudeau. He's an unknown right now. He has mythical status right now. When he begins taking solid positions and is attacked by the opposing parties, that's when we'll see what young Mr. Trudeau is made of.

By the bye, he said he wanted to take care of his kids and watch them grow up. That's why he wasn't running for LPC leadership. Going back on that is not going to look very good.

[cybercoma]

I will also add there's something else to consider and that is selection bias for that poll.

This was an online survey too. Angus Reid forum panelists were selected at random to complete the survey. This is important because online surveys only target a particular segment of the population, while being an AR forum panelist narrows that down even further to only those that are already politically engaged or interested in taking these kinds of surveys.

Why does this benefit Trudeau, you're probably thinking?

My theory is that Justin Trudeau is one of the single most active players on Twitter and Facebook. This gives him more cache amongst online petition takers that are politically engaged in my opinion. Neither Harper nor Mulcair take to the internet with any kind of regular frequency. Elizabeth May does, but her party is not supported enough for it to really make a difference. The challenge Mr. Trudeau will face if he does actually become leader is first maintaining that online credibility. He won't have to time to be spending on Facebook and Twitter updating everyone on every detail of his personal life and political thoughts. Secondly, the numbers in that poll may be overinflated anyway due to people that don't have access to the internet not being included in the survey. He'll need to target them. Namesake alone will take him far, but again, like punked said, when he starts taking stances and is attacked for them, that's when we'll see what he's made of.

In sum, I think selection bias is inflating Mr. Trudeau's score in this particular Angus Reid survey, so I would take it with a grain of salt.

[jbg]

I voted "can't say" since I think, at some level, merger, or the diminution of the LPC to a small rump, or even its death, is likely, for much the reasons that the PCPC imploded in 1993. Just as the "Quebec wing" of the CPCP melted into the Bloc, the "Quebec wing" of the LPC has melted into the NDP. Much of the rest of the CPCP found its way over to the Reform/Alliance party, I suspect that much of the rest of the LPC moves to the NDP and some small amount moves to the CPC.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Here is what's going to happen if Justin decides to run:

Liberals are going to jump all over him as the saviour of the party. He'll be elected to the leadership by a landslide, and national voting intention polls after the election will show the Liberals in first place.

Then people are going to realize who Justin Trudeau is and what he is not capable of...

He will still have a smaller voice in Parliament as leader of the third party. He'll be ineffective at moving legislation as party leader. Both Harper and Mulcair will destroy him in HoC debates, in the media, and in the 2015 election debates.

Trudeau will come across as an immature, silver-spoon-fed child that is unready to lead a nation, receiving success only because his last name is Trudeau.

It will be the final nail in the coffin for the federal Liberal party.

[jbg]

It will be the final nail in the coffin for the federal Liberal party.

I suspect that things will move prior to the 2015 election, rather than after, unless the LPC and NDP want to enjoy another four years of CPC majority.

[Fletch 27]

In his potinion, would you jump onboard to steer the Titanic to the bottom or would you jump ship to the party who has the Power and the change to grow professionaly under the leadership of sya Harper? I trully think he may just cross the aisle to the Tories! He (and make no mistakes) is well aware of the flash in the pan status of the NDP and how Mulcair handles himself? Justin(time) would not want to associate "hes great fathers" name to that.

[PIK]

Here is what's going to happen if Justin decides to run:

Liberals are going to jump all over him as the saviour of the party. He'll be elected to the leadership by a landslide, and national voting intention polls after the election will show the Liberals in first place.

Then people are going to realize who Justin Trudeau is and what he is not capable of...

He will still have a smaller voice in Parliament as leader of the third party. He'll be ineffective at moving legislation as party leader. Both Harper and Mulcair will destroy him in HoC debates, in the media, and in the 2015 election debates.

Trudeau will come across as an immature, silver-spoon-fed child that is unready to lead a nation, receiving success only because his last name is Trudeau.

It will be the final nail in the coffin for the federal Liberal party.

He would be easy pickings for the others, and I don't think the libs realize that. Just a few weeks ago,when MP's were talking about what jobs they had before politics and trudeau's answer was ,''I work 2 shifts as a bar tender and it was terrible and I quit'' Thius is our furure we are talking about, but it seems the next election is going to be more like american idol.

[WWWTT]

Here is what's going to happen if Justin decides to run:

Liberals are going to jump all over him as the saviour of the party. He'll be elected to the leadership by a landslide, and national voting intention polls after the election will show the Liberals in first place.

Then people are going to realize who Justin Trudeau is and what he is not capable of...

He will still have a smaller voice in Parliament as leader of the third party. He'll be ineffective at moving legislation as party leader. Both Harper and Mulcair will destroy him in HoC debates, in the media, and in the 2015 election debates.

Trudeau will come across as an immature, silver-spoon-fed child that is unready to lead a nation, receiving success only because his last name is Trudeau.

It will be the final nail in the coffin for the federal Liberal party.

This is why lionstorm is a friend!

Gutsy prediction there man!

Its good to see that you are still not afraid to take chances here.

I would add that the puncher is going to become the punching bag!

WWWTT

[Newfoundlander]

By the bye, he said he wanted to take care of his kids and watch them grow up. That's why he wasn't running for LPC leadership. Going back on that is not going to look very good.

I thought the same thing, but people will forget about that. I'd say if he runs and wins he will probably move his family to the Ottawa area.

Edited June 18, 2012 by Newfoundlander

[August1991]

Bump.

Car la question me semble bonne.

What will he do?

Edited July 23, 2012 by August1991

[Newfoundlander]

With his recent attacks on Mulcair and a leadership bid being more likely I highly doubt it.

[WWWTT]

When I first heard this rumor I liked it.

But now I hate the possibility that this guy who has never worried about money in his hole life would come over to the NDP.

If this guy ever came over and tried to win the leadership,I would fight him tooth and nail!

WWWTT

[Newfoundlander]

When I first heard this rumor I liked it.

But now I hate the possibility that this guy who has never worried about money in his hole life would come over to the NDP.

If this guy ever came over and tried to win the leadership,I would fight him tooth and nail!

WWWTT

How do you know he never had to worry about money?

[WWWTT]

How do you know he never had to worry about money?

Just a strong assumption.

WWWTT

[Newfoundlander]

Just a strong assumption.

WWWTT

So I guess you didn't like Jack Layton?

[WWWTT]

So I guess you didn't like Jack Layton?

If Jack was not able to pull of that 2011 result (and if he did not die) I am sure that his leadership would be up for a strong review!

I believe I was a supporter of Jack when he first was elected leader.I believe my support for him strengthened when his wife was elected to parliament a couple years later to.

When I met him when he was a Toronto councilor I am not sure I felt as strong about him.But I was young then.

But ya you are right,I guess Jack was born with a silver spoon in his mouth.But he did not ride his fathers name(I never heard of his dad by the way).

WWWTT

[Newfoundlander]

If Jack was not able to pull of that 2011 result (and if he did not die) I am sure that his leadership would be up for a strong review!

I believe I was a supporter of Jack when he first was elected leader.I believe my support for him strengthened when his wife was elected to parliament a couple years later to.

When I met him when he was a Toronto councilor I am not sure I felt as strong about him.But I was young then.

But ya you are right,I guess Jack was born with a silver spoon in his mouth.But he did not ride his fathers name(I never heard of his dad by the way).

WWWTT

Did Justin ride his father's name? It's not the man's fault he has probably the most famous last name in Canadian politics.

Edited July 24, 2012 by Newfoundlander

[jbg]

But now I hate the possibility that this guy who has never worried about money in his hole life would come over to the NDP.

"Hole life"? Maybe his father, whose first language may well have been French, would make that mistake. Or is that a Canadian (or Candidian see below) spelling?

If this guy ever came over and tried to win the leadership,I would fight him tooth and nail!

You'd use your teeth and fingernails to attack him?

Did Justin ride his father's name? It's not the man's fault he has probably the most famous last name in Candidian politics.

What is Candidian politics? A different set of politics than the U.S. or Canada has? Edited July 24, 2012 by jbg

[BubberMiley]

What is Candidian politics?

He may spell funny, but you still don't know how to use a semi-colon.