Will the Collapse of Greece affect Canada?

[Rocky Road]

One has to be pretty resilient to be an optimist in Greece, especially since they are in a predicament where disaster is at every corner and there are no roads to somewhere, anywhere, with those blessed green shoots.

My question is how will the continuing exponential growth of the debt in Europe and the US affect the World Economy, more specifically, how will it affect Canada?

[Wild Bill]

One has to be pretty resilient to be an optimist in Greece, especially since they are in a predicament where disaster is at every corner and there are no roads to somewhere, anywhere, with those blessed green shoots.

My question is how will the continuing exponential growth of the debt in Europe and the US affect the World Economy, more specifically, how will it affect Canada?

Well, one thing past history tells us, it will be FAR worse than the powers-that-be are telling us now!

[CPCFTW]

Well, one thing past history tells us, it will be FAR worse than the powers-that-be are telling us now!

Some would argue that the market has already priced in a Greek default (or at least a high probability of one).

Edited March 1, 2012 by CPCFTW

[Michael Hardner]

Canada imports/exports about $400B worth of goods annually.

The Big Picture

Canada and Greece have enjoyed a vibrant trade and investment relationship for many years. While there have been fluctuations over time, 2004 was a banner year, with bilateral merchandise trade reaching almost Canadian $421 million.

...

In 2005, merchandise trade between Greece and Canada was down by 32% from the previous year, to $285.5 million.

Greece seems to represent about .1% of our business. There is more of an effect in finance and banking, and the issues around undermining confidence in the economy.

[Rocky Road]

Canada imports/exports about $400B worth of goods annually.

The Big Picture

Canada and Greece have enjoyed a vibrant trade and investment relationship for many years. While there have been fluctuations over time, 2004 was a banner year, with bilateral merchandise trade reaching almost Canadian $421 million.

...

In 2005, merchandise trade between Greece and Canada was down by 32% from the previous year, to $285.5 million.

Greece seems to represent about .1% of our business. There is more of an effect in finance and banking, and the issues around undermining confidence in the economy.

I agree, the financial impact on banking will also be felt -- one has to wonder if peripheral effects will be felt in countries like Italy, Spain, the UK, Ireland, Portugal and to a lesser extent - Germany and France.

Another question - Do you believe Austerity measures help or hinder an economy ??

[Rocky Road]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/tsx-dow-tumble-on-greece-economic-growth-fears/article2359921/

"Wall Street fell on Tuesday on renewed concerns that Greece and private bondholders may not meet a looming deadline to complete a debt swap and as caution grew over the global economic outlook after recent weak data.

The Toronto stock market was sharply lower as commodity prices fell for a second day."

[PIK]

I think ONT will effect canada more then greece.

[Rocky Road]

Things are pretty bad in Greece,

the unemployment rate for youth is 50%.

[Smallc]

I think ONT will effect canada more then greece.

Ontario isn't in the same kind of shape as Greece, sorry.

[dre]

Greeces bailout has already affected Canada. Where do you think the money came from? Ya think the IMF gets its money collecting bottles? Mowing lawns? They take from Canadian taxpayers.

But more importantly the bailout is going to effect Canada because it isnt going to work! You cant fix debt problems with mountains of more debt. The ECB's desperate attempt to keep the Eurozone together at the expense of tax payers around the world is going to fail. Greece is just the first country, the same thing is coming in portugal, and eventually spain which would make the bailout in greece looking like borrowing $5 from a friend to buy a burger.

This plan is only gonna push the problems back a year or two, and make them worse when they finally come, and then definately youll see problems in the eurozone and elsewhere that will most definately cause big problems here.

[Rocky Road]

Ya that is what I think too, the severity of the situation is serious.

[Rocky Road]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/the-eus-solutions-add-to-greeces-chaos/article2363237/

"The EU and IMF policies, in effect, have pushed large segments of the Greek population toward poverty and the extreme political fringe. It will be the unenviable task of a new Greek government to keep implementing necessary structural reforms while providing an answer to the country’s social ills. If the coming coalition government fails, the Berlin-Brussels approach to the European debt crisis may well result in Europe’s first failed state since Yugoslavia."

Edited March 9, 2012 by Rocky Road

[CPCFTW]

Why do you keep posting this as if it is recent news? Have you been under a rock for the past 2 years? This Greece stuff has been ongoing for a while and has already affected Canada. That is part of this extended recession/slow growth period.

[eyeball]

Why do you keep posting this as if it is recent news? Have you been under a rock for the past 2 years? This Greece stuff has been ongoing for a while and has already affected Canada. That is part of this extended recession/slow growth period.

the unemployment rate for youth is 50%

That's approaching the sort of tipping point that can lead to world wars, especially in Europe. People seem to have a bad habit of forgetting that - much of it deliberately I think.

Edited March 10, 2012 by eyeball

[MACKER]

Where will Canadians turn to for Democracy after the fall of Greece?

[CPCFTW]

Where will Canadians turn to for Democracy after the fall of Greece?

King Harper

[Rocky Road]

That's approaching the sort of tipping point that can lead to world wars, especially in Europe. People seem to have a bad habit of forgetting that - much of it deliberately I think.

Well, there are many reasons to be concerned about the direction of the global economy with many EU countries on the brink. I for one think the global economy is a house of cards that is being propped up by bad debt. And this can't go one forever, it is totally unsustainable.

For those of you with kids, grandkids, what are we doing to establish sustainability in financial/ecological ways?

[Rocky Road]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/greece-to-need-more-despite-biggest-ever-bond-ripoff/article2366567/

"Why Greece will need more

Greece may have just pulled off the biggest "bond ripoff" by any government in history, and it may it be in line for another €130-billion in bailout money, but its troubles are far from over."

[dre]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/greece-to-need-more-despite-biggest-ever-bond-ripoff/article2366567/

"Why Greece will need more

Greece may have just pulled off the biggest "bond ripoff" by any government in history, and it may it be in line for another €130-billion in bailout money, but its troubles are far from over."

I dont think Greece ripped anyone off. They are insolvent and their debt should be written down to almost nothing, just like yours or mine would be. If anything I dont think the write-down was anywhere near big enough. I would have like to have seen greek debt written down by about 80%.

Greeces creditors were investing in a poorly run country where the civil services accounted for more than 50% GDP. Banks and investors that stupid deserve to take a bath, and quite frankly they have no standing. Greece should have told them to phuck off.

[August1991]

I dont think Greece ripped anyone off. They are insolvent and their debt should be written down to almost nothing, just like yours or mine would be. If anything I dont think the write-down was anywhere near big enough. I would have like to have seen greek debt written down by about 80%.

Hey, Greek bondholders just became Greek taxpayers.

What is the difference between a taxpayer and a bondholder? A Greek haircut.

Or how about this one: In Canada, our governments don't default; we just pay taxes.

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The real Greek lesson for Canada is the euro. Greece no longer has the drachma, and Ontario/Quebec and everywhere else is saddled with an Albertan dollar.

At least the Norwegians had the good Lutheran sense to keep their own currency, and have nothing to do with the European agricultural policies.

I dont think Greece ripped anyone off. They are insolvent and their debt should be written down to almost nothing, just like yours or mine would be.

Yours and mine?

Uh, dre, politicians like Harper can tax other people (and put them in prison for non-payment). You and I cannot do that. Even banks and credit card companies cannot put people in prison for non-payment.

Governments alone can put people in prison. You and I (and corporations) cannot do that. This is the fundamental reason that State debt is different from every other kind of debt.

As a result, governments borrow at the lowest interest rates on the planet. And hence, the State is the ideal institution for people who manage bad their affairs - the State offers easy access to other people's money.

Edited March 13, 2012 by August1991

[Rocky Road]

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=collapse%20%22industrial%20civilization%22&source=web&cd=21&ved=0CDUQFjAAOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Ftransitionvoice.com%2F2012%2F03%2Fackerman-and-mcpherson-a-dialog-on-finding-authenticity%2F&ctbs=qdr%3Aw&ei=P41dT6W7GYGZiAK18KXjDg&usg=AFQjCNFWm9PN1eI6o3VkUj2uPM9mxcFWMg&sig2=Cauicj24hA2F2vKWaI9jNA

[August1991]

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=collapse%20%22industrial%20civilization%22&source=web&cd=21&ved=0CDUQFjAAOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Ftransitionvoice.com%2F2012%2F03%2Fackerman-and-mcpherson-a-dialog-on-finding-authenticity%2F&ctbs=qdr%3Aw&ei=P41dT6W7GYGZiAK18KXjDg&usg=AFQjCNFWm9PN1eI6o3VkUj2uPM9mxcFWMg&sig2=Cauicj24hA2F2vKWaI9jNA

???

RR, you got me.

[madmax]

Well, one thing past history tells us, it will be FAR worse than the powers-that-be are telling us now!

like pee in an Ocean...

[dre]

Hey, Greek bondholders just became Greek taxpayers.

What is the difference between a taxpayer and a bondholder? A Greek haircut.

Or how about this one: In Canada, our governments don't default; we just pay taxes.

So what? Its malinvestment. These "bond holders" chose to buy shares in a money losing venture. They get to take the bath they deserve. If you lend 1000 dollars to rufus the stunt bum, you cant cry when he doesnt pay you back. Its your own damn fault.

Edited March 13, 2012 by dre

[August1991]

So what? Its malinvestment. These "bond holders" chose to buy shares in a money losing venture. They get to take the bath they deserve. If you lend 1000 dollars to rufus the stunt bum, you cant cry when he doesnt pay you back. Its your own damn fault.

So, the bondholders are like a taxpayer. What's the difference? You can give your money to the government one way, or you can give it another way.

Everyone seems to think that the Greek government is wrong to default. But how is default different from a tax?

In effect, the Greek government has found a different way to tax people. And I suspect that other governments will soon choose to tax this way too.

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Welcome to the 21st century, (or the 21st century version of Ricardian equivalence)!

Edited March 13, 2012 by August1991