Super Bowl 46 Playoff Thread

Shady · January 5, 2012

Or even more perplexing the Niners get the second worse strength of schedule while the Rams get the top figure. They only two games different from each other.

Not perplexing at all. When you're talking about a 16 game schedule, 2 games is significant.

msj · January 5, 2012

Not perplexing at all. When you're talking about a 16 game schedule, 2 games is significant.

Which is why the SoS using the DVOA stats that I linked to above is better.

It is adjusted for defence and it looks at the value of each play over the league average for similar plays (among other things).

IOW, it has a large sample size (thousands of plays per week by all teams) that is used to measure against.

Sure it is still limited by the way that each team plays two against each in its own division etc... but over the course of 16 games where play is being measured against the league average it does a better job than simply looking at a win/loss column.

kimmy · January 8, 2012

Another completely ridiculous performance from Drew Brees and the Saints' offense. Madness.

Day 1 went pretty much as expected. What surprises will day 2 hold?

I will go with the Falcons and Steelers.

-k

msj · January 8, 2012

Another completely ridiculous performance from Drew Brees and the Saints' offense. Madness.

Day 1 went pretty much as expected. What surprises will day 2 hold?

I will go with the Falcons and Steelers.

-k

Fair picks.

Of yesterdays game I thought Hou/Cin the more likely for a home team loss due to both teams starting rookie QB's.

Although Yates/Dalton have played quite well given that they are rookies who knows how either one will perform under such pressure.

Today's games have their own question marks - will Big Ben play? How is his injury? If he is injured will Von Miller win this game for Denver (it's highly unlikely that Tebow will)?

Atl/NYG is probably the biggest toss up.

I have linked to the footballoutsiders stats already above.

Using their stats we get this:

NYG - final DVOA = 9% Atl = 15.5%

But NYG at at home which means you add 17% to the NYG (this is just something that is "known" from spending years reading the site). So, now NYG turn up to 26%.

So, since 26% > than 15.5% you expect the NYG to be favoured.

However, Atl is a very consistent team (1st in the NFL) - they don't have terrible games but they don't have great games.

But the NYG are terribly inconsistent (21st).

Factor that in and one would expect either the NYG to win with a healthy margin (10+ points) of for them to lose by about a TD.

Either way I'm looking forward to watching both games.

bush_cheney2004 · January 9, 2012

Looks like Tim Tebow and touchdown Jesus just put on quite a show. Denver beats Pittsburgh in overtime.

msj · January 9, 2012

Looks like Tim Tebow and touchdown Jesus just put on quite a show. Denver beats Pittsburgh in overtime.

Yes, this outcome is excellent.

I like NE's chances better playing Denver than Pittsburgh.

As for Tebow and Jesus - give credit where it's due - he played quite well and got some help from a good defence, an injured Big Ben, and a confused Steeler defence (I have only seen part of the game so far but they sure looked confused to me in the first half - out of position at times).

bush_cheney2004 · January 9, 2012

...As for Tebow and Jesus - give credit where it's due - he played quite well and got some help from a good defence, an injured Big Ben, and a confused Steeler defence (I have only seen part of the game so far but they sure looked confused to me in the first half - out of position at times).

Tebow's passing game was excellent, silencing his critics. Over 300 yards on just 10 completed passes. The only competitive playoff game of the weekend.

Edited January 9, 2012 by bush_cheney2004

msj · January 9, 2012

Tebow's passing game was excellent, silencing his critics. Over 300 yards on just 10 completed passes. The only competitive playoff game of the weekend.

One game is not going to silence any critics.

He still has mechanic issues to address in the off season, needs to further comprehend coverage schemes etc, etc.

Will he get it?

He could. We'll have to wait and see.

I hope he does - next year against a team not named NE.

bush_cheney2004 · January 9, 2012

One game is not going to silence any critics.

It does when it's a playoff game.

He still has mechanic issues to address in the off season, needs to further comprehend coverage schemes etc, etc.

Will he get it?

Yea, Pittsburgh sure fooled him, huh? He doesn't need to win another game to count this season as a breakout success.

Boges · January 9, 2012

One game is not going to silence any critics.

He still has mechanic issues to address in the off season, needs to further comprehend coverage schemes etc, etc.

Will he get it?

He could. We'll have to wait and see.

I hope he does - next year against a team not named NE.

What they were saying on ESPN Primetime was that Tebow provides this triple-threat that is really tough to defend when done well.

You obviously have an interior running game, you have the threat of Tebow running too so the WR's are almost always facing man-to-man coverage.

In the OT win the Safeties were showing blitz and had no shot at catching the WR down field.

Denver's O-line played amazing. On some plays Tebow could have stood in the pocket for 5 minutes.

He doesn't make a lot of dink and dunk completions but he does do a lot of large downfield plays.

msj · January 9, 2012

It does when it's a playoff game.

Dan Marino is one of the greats - hall of famer, records that are only falling in recent years to other hall of famers (and in an era of passing inflation).

He never silenced his critics because he never won a SB.

Peyton Manning didn't silence his critics until he won a SB. And even then I can see some coming out of the woodwork should he have a poor start next year (but we'll have to wait and see).

The MSM may be the critics that you are talking about but they are the flavour of the month types.

The critics I'm talking about are the guys at NFL Films and Footballoutsiders.

Guys who watch tape and break down schemes/plays/mechanics/etc.

No doubt they will be impressed by Tebow's performance in this one game (and really the only game thus far in the season).

But it takes more than one game to make a career.

Let's not put the cart before the horse.

Yea, Pittsburgh sure fooled him, huh? He doesn't need to win another game to count this season as a breakout success.

Pittsburgh's defence played poorly.

What I have seen (so far) is high school plays fooling a NFL calibre defence. Not one of their finer moments.

At least Tebow is going up against the worst defence left in the playoffs when they play NE next - he has a fighting chance if Denver's defence can hold Brady to less than 25 points.

bush_cheney2004 · January 9, 2012

The critics I'm talking about are the guys at NFL Films and Footballoutsiders.

OH..then why didn't you say so, because we all know that they are the best critics in all the land. They have numerous Super Rings between them!

No doubt they will be impressed by Tebow's performance in this one game (and really the only game thus far in the season).

Nope...Denver fans may have been impressed by more than one game.

But it takes more than one game to make a career.

Let's not put the cart before the horse.

If you were a Tebow-Jesus basher...then you have to eat Tebow crow. If not...relax.

Edited January 9, 2012 by bush_cheney2004

msj · January 9, 2012

If you were a Tebow-Jesus basher...then you have to eat Tebow crow. If not...relax.

Then you should be posting this kind of crap in the "Tebow" thread.

msj · January 9, 2012

Onto the next round.

Denver @ NE

Hou @ Bal

NO @ SF

NYG @ GB

Who's gonna win?

My picks are:

NE - they have an excellent offence and an awful defence. Have home field advantage and are a better team (overall) than Denver. Could be a really fun game - high scoring, even close.

Remember John Fox as the coach of the Carolina Panthers back in the SB 38? Now he's coaching Denver so we can expect the media to play this up (which should be fun but will likely lack depth and intelligence).

NE won 32 to 29 and the QB for Carolina, Jake Delhomme, has been a virtual nobody every since (which is sad, imo). Of course, Jake is now backing up rookie Yates of Houston so who knows if he has a chance at "redemption."

Baltimore - Two good defences going at each other. Houston has the rookie QB and Baltimore has Flacco (who has to be considered lack lustre or even dissappointing).

Who knows, maybe Jake will get to play and win the game for Houston - which would be awesome if Denver beats NE.....

NO - SF has a very good defence and a decent offence who are terrible in the red zone. NO are playing well and while SF is outside it's not like outside in Green Bay. But NO does have a poor defence which is masked by Brees/Sproles. So SF could win this.

SF has beaten three playoff teams during the regular season - Pittsburgh and the NYG at home and Detroit on the road.

But after watching Pittsburgh today (and I did watch the regular season meeting at SF too) I'm going to discount that one.

NYG just don't impress me much and neither do the Lions.

So, I'm going with NO even though I slightly prefer SF to win for various personal reasons.

Green Bay - of course, the NYG played a poor regular season and backed into the playoffs to then beat a 18-0 NE team in Super Bowl 42.

Green Bay is like NE and NO - very good offence but a weak defence - which is strange since they seem to have most of the same players as last year.

Green Bay's offence is a lot better than NYG's, their defence is only slightly worse, and they have home field so go Packers go!

Those are my picks.

What sez you?

bush_cheney2004 · January 9, 2012

Then you should be posting this kind of crap in the "Tebow" thread.

Why...wasn't Tebow in the NFL playoffs? I think he was/is....

msj · January 9, 2012

Why...wasn't Tebow in the NFL playoffs? I think he was/is....

Do you have any thing to say about next weeks games?

bush_cheney2004 · January 9, 2012

Do you have any thing to say about next weeks games?

Yes...they will be played in the United States!

Boges · January 9, 2012

Dan Marino is one of the greats - hall of famer, records that are only falling in recent years to other hall of famers (and in an era of passing inflation).

He never silenced his critics because he never won a SB.

Peyton Manning didn't silence his critics until he won a SB. And even then I can see some coming out of the woodwork should he have a poor start next year (but we'll have to wait and see).

The MSM may be the critics that you are talking about but they are the flavour of the month types.

The critics I'm talking about are the guys at NFL Films and Footballoutsiders.

Guys who watch tape and break down schemes/plays/mechanics/etc.

No doubt they will be impressed by Tebow's performance in this one game (and really the only game thus far in the season).

But it takes more than one game to make a career.

Let's not put the cart before the horse.

Pittsburgh's defence played poorly.

What I have seen (so far) is high school plays fooling a NFL calibre defence. Not one of their finer moments.

At least Tebow is going up against the worst defence left in the playoffs when they play NE next - he has a fighting chance if Denver's defence can hold Brady to less than 25 points.

The Steeler DC is a guy named Dick LeBeau. They were joking on pre-game coverage that he is so old that he probably saw the Option being used in the NFL in the 50's.

The Steelers were down a safety because of a sickle cell problem playing in Denver's altitude but still the players that made this defense a Super Bowl winner were there. Where was Troy? James Harrison? William Gay? They all figuratively broke their ankles trying to keep track of Tebow and cover those talented Denver receivers at the same time.

msj · January 9, 2012

And your picks?

The Tebow worship thread is elsewhere....

Boges · January 9, 2012

LOL at trying to dictate how a thread goes.

Nola wins

Bmore wins

Giants win

And if the Denver offence doesn't shoot themselves in the foot the Broncos win.

Shady · January 9, 2012

If you were a Tebow-Jesus basher...then you have to eat Tebow crow.

That's probably why kimmy's been silent.

msj · January 14, 2012

Well, no one else brave enough to give us their picks?

Here's the FO look at the games:

AFC

NFC

They prevaricate too much, imo.

Shady · January 14, 2012

I'll make my picks. I'll take the 49ers and the Packers in the NFC. I'll take the Ravens and the Patriots in the AFC. Although, I have a bit of a feeling that the Giants could very well pull an upset. And if the weather's particularly bad in Foxborough, I wouldn't count out Denver. But only if the weather's bad.