Guest Derek L Posted June 30, 2011 Report Posted June 30, 2011 QuoteWhy libya and not Tunisia? Why Libya and not Egypt? Why Libya and not Algeria? Part of the answer is timing....spring came fast and Tunisia finished fast. Part of the answer is severity....egypt's violence was minor in comparison to Libya. Part of the answer are ramifications. Itay is facing a daily deluge of refugees from Libya. Italy is also dependant on buying Libyan oil. The civil war affected this. Part of the answer is ability....Libya proximity to Europe allows All nato to launch attacks from Italy...where as Syria would necessitate the action be almost entirely american. Part of the answer is timing. Libya started around feb 15..Syria march 15th Ben Ali & Mubarak never threatened nationalisation of western companies…….The United States faces a daily deluge of refugees from Cuba and Mexico…. They’re a NATO ally, should we conduct air strikes there? Turkey is a member of NATO, and they share a boarder with Syria…….not too mention, Israel & Cyprus, both closer to Syria than Libya is to Italy. Resolution 1973 wasn’t passed till the 17th of march, and air strikes didn’t start till the 19th…….. Quote
M.Dancer Posted June 30, 2011 Report Posted June 30, 2011 The civil war was back and fourth like a tennis match before the West intervened……at one point the rebels where on the outskirts of Tripoli, days later after Gaddafi brought in Syrian mercenaries, the rebels where pushed back to the other side of the country…….then they pushed back the Merc’s to back…..without Western intervention, the conflict would likely have continued the same….. Not by a long shot My position has been the same since the beginning of the thread, and I’ve provided the material that I base my supported opinion on, which you’ve yet to refute or prove wrong…in many cases, facts & numbers provided by the oil companies themselves…. I've proved handily your 90% comment was nonsense. I feel no need to refute your irrelevancies....run with them if you feel inclined. Your positions & unsupported opinions(?) has been proven wrong on numerous times by me in this thread……..I’m convinced, based on your constant dodges, insults & unsupported conjecture, prior to this discussion, your only exposure to the oil & gas industry is when you’re filling up your tank. irrelevancies don't prove squat The outcome of the conflict was never a given Yet you seem to believe that the oil companies made a choice.... (to either side) prior to Western intervention……as for further investment after Gaddafi’s threats, what would you expect? The oil companies to leave? Tell Gaddafi to pound sand? Take their ball and go home? I would expect sound business decisions based on sound risk management principles...you apparently don't. Have you proven my claim, or the contracts (from the link you provided) between Western companies and the NOC to be false? Why would I? Doesn't change the fact that without the partnerships NOC is the force and with the partnerships, they are still the force. 50% of the production is NOC. I even provided a cite for that. I guees there wasn't enough irrelevancies in it for you to properly appreciate it. Have you proven international laws on airspace and territorial waters to be false? Have you proven your semantic nonsense to be honest? And, you’ve yet to provide evidence to support your claim as to why we are in Libya, and not Syria…… I have, others have...but again, not enough tinfoil or irrelevancies for you... How about this, try to draw parallels between the situation in libya (resistance movement, strategic importance, dangers, consequences...ability etc) and make a case.... ...otherwise continue to blow smoke from your nethers...while I continue to chortle over your absurd suggestions, vis a vis, using Israel as a launching base... Quote RIGHT of SOME, LEFT of OTHERS If it is a choice between them and us, I choose us
Guest Derek L Posted June 30, 2011 Report Posted June 30, 2011 Not by a long shot You’re claiming the conflict was not back and forth prior to Western intervention? I've proved handily your 90% comment was nonsense. I feel no need to refute your irrelevancies....run with them if you feel inclined. When did you do that? With the link you provided that stated “over 50% of Libyan oil is produced directly from foreign companies, or the link that showed all NOC holding are with foreign partners? irrelevancies don't prove squat Your irrelevancies have proven you wrong, where as mine have been proven as fact….just saying……..or you going to shift the goal posts further? Yet you seem to believe that the oil companies made a choice.... Yeah....not to let chance decide the outcome.... I would expect sound business decisions based on sound risk management principles...you apparently don't. You feel not protecting your assets & interests is a sound business decision? Why would I? Doesn't change the fact that without the partnerships NOC is the force and with the partnerships, they are still the force. 50% of the production is NOC. I even provided a cite for that. I guees there wasn't enough irrelevancies in it for you to properly appreciate it. Prior to Western investment and involvement, how was the NOC doing in terms of production? Have you proven your semantic nonsense to be honest? Yeah.....Hornets over Libya and the HMCS Charlottetown off the beach....do you claim this to be also false?? I have, others have...but again, not enough tinfoil or irrelevancies for you... And they've been proven wrong.....each and every one How about this, try to draw parallels between the situation in libya (resistance movement, strategic importance, dangers, consequences...ability etc) and make a case.......otherwise continue to blow smoke from your nethers...while I continue to chortle over your absurd suggestions, vis a vis, using Israel as a launching base... I've already made my case, with facts........You rely on conjecture..... Quote
M.Dancer Posted June 30, 2011 Report Posted June 30, 2011 You’re claiming the conflict was not back and forth prior to Western intervention? No. I am claiming that with air supremacy and the lionshares of the heavy arms, the desision was not in doubt. When did you do that? With the link you provided that stated “over 50% of Libyan oil is produced directly from foreign companies, or the link that showed all NOC holding are with foreign partners? I have not posted anyting showing all of the NOC's production is with foreign holdings Your irrelevancies have proven you wrong, where as mine have been proven as fact….just saying……..or you going to shift the goal posts further? Irrelevancies prove nothing. I thought you might have caught on to that by now. You feel not protecting your assets & interests is a sound business decision? Divestment is also a prudent move. One apparently they didn't feel the need to take. Prior to Western investment and involvement, how was the NOC doing in terms of production? How is that relevant? Yeah.....Hornets over Libya and the HMCS Charlottetown off the beach....do you claim this to be also false?? If you can, tell me exactly how many Canadians are in Libya right now...thanks And they've been proven wrong.....each and every one Not by you or your irrelevancies I've already made my case, with facts........You rely on conjecture..... Cherry picked irrelevancies aren't facts Quote RIGHT of SOME, LEFT of OTHERS If it is a choice between them and us, I choose us
Oleg Bach Posted June 30, 2011 Report Posted June 30, 2011 Why libya and not syria..........humm.........maybe Canada like America - considers co-operative murdering tyrants as friend - and no-compliant and useless murdering tyrants as the enemy. Quote
GostHacked Posted June 30, 2011 Report Posted June 30, 2011 Cherry picked irrelevancies aren't facts Calling it a humanitarian mission is also irrelevant. Because it is not a humanitarian mission. Quote
M.Dancer Posted June 30, 2011 Report Posted June 30, 2011 Calling it a humanitarian mission is also irrelevant. Because it is not a humanitarian mission. Of course. UN resolutions mean nothing, because you say so. Quote RIGHT of SOME, LEFT of OTHERS If it is a choice between them and us, I choose us
GostHacked Posted June 30, 2011 Report Posted June 30, 2011 Of course. UN resolutions mean nothing, because you say so. Maybe you can explain how bombing civilian infrastructure is humanitarian aid? So far no humanitarian aid (other than a weapons drop from France) has gotten into Libya. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13970412 Libya: AU condemns French arms drop to rebelsLibyan rebels round-up soldiers loyal to Col Gaddafi in Western Libya. 7 June 2011 France is said to be concerned at the military stalemate in Libya African Union Commission chief Jean Ping says France's decision to air-drop weapons to Libyan rebels is dangerous and puts the whole region at risk. The RT video I posted also shows another bit about how Gadaffi wanted to use a gold Dinar and trade oil in another currency other than the US dollar. Quote
M.Dancer Posted June 30, 2011 Report Posted June 30, 2011 Maybe you can explain how bombing civilian infrastructure is humanitarian aid? Maybe you can explain what civilian infrastructure is and when it was bombed .... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13970412 So far no humanitarian aid (other than a weapons drop from France) has gotten into Libya. Meanwhile, in an unbroken string of factual errors by GH... http://www.news1130.com/news/world/article/215197--un-humanitarian-chief-says-aid-getting-through-in-libya-without-military-escorts http://en.rian.ru/world/20110308/162905198.html http://www.mzz.gov.si/nc/en/tools/cns/news/article/141/28739/ The RT video I posted also shows another bit about how Gadaffi wanted to use a gold Dinar and trade oil in another currency other than the US dollar. Quote RIGHT of SOME, LEFT of OTHERS If it is a choice between them and us, I choose us
Guest Derek L Posted June 30, 2011 Report Posted June 30, 2011 (edited) No. I am claiming that with air supremacy and the lionshares of the heavy arms, the desision was not in doubt. Even when his Syrian pilots arrived, Gaddafi hardly had air supremacy……some pilots defected to Malta…the rebels shot down some…..The rebels captured some…And what remained (for both sides) was mostly antiquated equipment lacking in spares…Elements of his army defected to the rebels, both sides have tanks, artillery, mortars etc….The result without Western intervention would likely mirror what the situation on the ground is today, granted it might have taken a few months more, which is stalemate fought with mostly small arms. Even when his Syrian pilots arrived, Gaddafi hardly had air supremacy……some pilots defected to Malta…the rebels shot down some…..The rebels captured some…And what remained (for both sides) was mostly antiquated equipment lacking in spares…Elements of his army defected to the rebels, both sides have tanks, artillery, mortars etc….The result without Western intervention would likely mirror what the situation on the ground is today, granted it might have taken a few months more, which is stalemate fought with mostly small arms. I have not posted anyting showing all of the NOC's production is with foreign holdings You wikipedia link covered most of their holdings and with what companies But for the sake of clarification on NOC and foreign holdings, here is a map of the separate oilfields within Libya from the NOC website: http://62.68.48.212/ViewOffering.aspx?offeringId=91 Now it’s your choice, but you can either go back to the wikipedia link you provided and see the work share agreement listed with the NOC and or cross-reference with the oil companies links I’ve provided: Add it up. Divestment is also a prudent move. One apparently they didn't feel the need to take. Not if the total invested to date and potential future earnings through already negotiated contracts exceeds the loss in earnings due to a reduction or complete stoppage in production for six months to a year…..most of these companies have contracts until the 2030s-2040s……once the dust settles and wacky Gaddafi is gone, production can restart under the new administration/regime….the oil isn’t going anywhere, some operations have already started up again (at reduced capacity) in Western Libya (rebel held fields) If you can, tell me exactly how many Canadians are in Libya right now...thanks It’s a fluid number, and one that if I did know, I wouldn’t post/share in public for the sake of “winning” an internet debate……. By my speculation, from sources already with in the public domain: The HMCS Charlottetown is at times operating very close to the coast line (evident by several attacks on her from shore based rockets), again her operations along the coast line will be fluid and interrupted every few days for a RAS and retasking…….so there’s her crew ~230 With the Hornets, it depends what type of cab ranking system NATO is using over there……are they combining our Hornet force with the Spanish commitment? Are they divided along national lines? I would guess they’d be pooled with other NATO assets, and potentially, a flight of two Hornets is available 24/7 for tasking…..So say two pilots As for the Aurora crews, I wouldn’t speculate how close to the coast line they’re operating…….their sensors carried aboard should allow them some distance of a stand-off range….. I doubt the Herc tankers are operating anywhere near Libyan airspace…..likely close to the Hornet bases near Italy to top off the fighters after take off…… As for Canadians on Libyan soil, there is some folks from Dwyer Hill in the region, what they’re doing or where they’re based I haven’t a clue…….I’d guess likely there for any possible CSAR mission if required……That being said, even with that majority of the NATO combat aircraft over there being able to self designate targets (Sans the Eurofighter), there has to be some small FAC teams on the ground lighting targets and communicating with NATO aircraft tasked with close air support for the rebels……Who or how many is anyone’s guess…..Could be French Foreign Legion, SEALS, SAS, Marine Recon, Green Beret and possibly JTF-2/CSOR…… Edited June 30, 2011 by Derek L Quote
jbg Posted July 1, 2011 Report Posted July 1, 2011 Take for example SunCor's 4 billion or so investment in Libya - how much does Canada have invested in Syria?************* Take for instance this report from the telegraph (uk) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/8589019/FCO-stresses-need-for-Britons-to-leave-Syria.html I lack the patience to work my way through this incoheremt drivel. Where have you been the last few months,the Clarke Institute? Quote Free speech: "You can say what you want, but I don't have to lend you my megaphone." Always remember that when you are in the right you can afford to keep your temper, and when you are in the wrong you cannot afford to lose it. - J.J. Reynolds. Will the steps anyone is proposing to fight "climate change" reduce a single temperature, by a single degree, at a single location? The mantra of "world opinion" or the views of the "international community" betrays flabby and weak reasoning (link).
M.Dancer Posted July 1, 2011 Report Posted July 1, 2011 Even when his Syrian pilots arrived, Gaddafi hardly had air supremacy……some pilots defected to Malta…the rebels shot down some…..The rebels captured some…And what remained (for both sides) was mostly antiquated equipment lacking in spares…Elements of his army defected to the rebels, both sides have tanks, artillery, mortars etc….The result without Western intervention would likely mirror what the situation on the ground is today, granted it might have taken a few months more, which is stalemate fought with mostly small arms. Okay, so we have established you don't knbow what air supremacy is...it ceratinly has nothing to do with quality or the army.... You wikipedia link covered most of their holdings and with what companies Which is not to say that is the totality of their production. It is as you say, most of their holding with companies....gosh, i guess there was no oil pruduced before libta came in form the cold... The HMCS Charlottetown is at times operating very close to the coast line (evident by several attacks on her from shore based rockets), again her operations along the coast line will be fluid and interrupted every few days for a RAS and retasking…….so there’s her crew ~230 Are they in Libya right now, yes or no? With the Hornets, it depends what type of cab ranking system NATO is using over there……are they combining our Hornet force with the Spanish commitment? Are they divided along national lines? I would guess they’d be pooled with other NATO assets, and potentially, a flight of two Hornets is available 24/7 for tasking…..So say two pilots Are the in Libya right now? yes or no? As for the Aurora crews, I wouldn’t speculate how close to the coast line they’re operating…….their sensors carried aboard should allow them some distance of a stand-off range….. So you are sure they are not in Libya? Quote RIGHT of SOME, LEFT of OTHERS If it is a choice between them and us, I choose us
Guest Derek L Posted July 1, 2011 Report Posted July 1, 2011 Okay, so we have established you don't knbow what air supremacy is...it ceratinly has nothing to do with quality or the army.... You mentioned heavy weapons in your post.....and no, he didn't have total air supremacy, due in part to the lack of training, spare parts and material condition of his airforce… Which is not to say that is the totality of their production. It is as you say, most of their holding with companies....gosh, i guess there was no oil pruduced before libta came in form the cold... I provided the division of Libyan fields, and between the links I provided and your Wiki link one can see who controls what.... Are they in Libya right now, yes or no? I've not a clue......they could be in international waters right this moment, but again, that could change with half hours sailing time....Whats your point? Are the in Libya right now? yes or no? I've not a clue......they could be in international airspace (or on the ramp in Italy) right this moment, but again, that could change with an hours flight time....Whats your point? So you are sure they are not in Libya? As I said above, it's all fluid..........Whats your point? Quote
Topaz Posted July 1, 2011 Report Posted July 1, 2011 Well that's your view.... Libya had emerged from the cold, it's oil was for sale on the open market and was encouraging foreign investment. Your view is both myopic and cross eyed. Dancer, I have you know that you are definitely wrong about my eyes. They are a beautiful green and my sight is a good as yours. Why do you always have to personal attack when someone doesn't agree with you or you disagree with them? Rise up!! Quote
M.Dancer Posted July 3, 2011 Report Posted July 3, 2011 Dancer, I have you know that you are definitely wrong about my eyes. They are a beautiful green and my sight is a good as yours. Why do you always have to personal attack when someone doesn't agree with you or you disagree with them? Rise up!! I'm sorry, you wish me not to attack your view? Buggered as it is... Quote RIGHT of SOME, LEFT of OTHERS If it is a choice between them and us, I choose us
William Ashley Posted August 18, 2011 Author Report Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) So things are sounding very Libyaesque Seems that both the UN and Arab countries have yanked ambassadors... it plays in my mind whether the Arab League would allow actions in Syria. I really don't know enough but now that Libya is presumed to be nice and tied up, sounds like they are advancing on Syria. http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i1P4HaCRhy2ch3_-AuppC47EXdew?docId=CNG.144c338b5aa2acb65d6c14b70e0173fd.891 It might get the US a war with Iran it wants. Geeshe even if the US and EU were to financially collapse its not as if they lack resources or people. Its not like they are one bear. There are two or more bears against a pack of wolves. And its the bears hunting wolves.. or so the bears think. Edited August 18, 2011 by William Ashley Quote I was here.
Smallc Posted August 18, 2011 Report Posted August 18, 2011 Hello again. Anyway, if there is to be action in Syria, similar to what happened in Libya, it's going to be a very different game. The resources are pretty much going to have to come to from the US, since other countries are either committed to Libya and don't have the resources to spare, or are unwilling to act. There's also the fact that Syria has a far more capable air force than Libya did. Many things have to be considered before action can even be contemplated. Quote
GostHacked Posted August 18, 2011 Report Posted August 18, 2011 Not to mention Obama and now Harper are both calling for Assad to step down. Great, another war on the way. ... sorry 'kinetic military action'. Quote
William Ashley Posted August 18, 2011 Author Report Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) Hello again. Anyway, if there is to be action in Syria, similar to what happened in Libya, it's going to be a very different game. The resources are pretty much going to have to come to from the US, since other countries are either committed to Libya and don't have the resources to spare, or are unwilling to act. There's also the fact that Syria has a far more capable air force than Libya did. Many things have to be considered before action can even be contemplated. What like a US election.. geuss McCain ain't runnning this time. No nuke em juke em. Any hawks running this year? Edited August 18, 2011 by William Ashley Quote I was here.
dre Posted August 18, 2011 Report Posted August 18, 2011 I dont see any compelling reason for the government to take money from me and spend it picking sides in a Syrian civil war where theres no reason to pick one side over the other. Let them fight it out amongst themselves. Quote I question things because I am human. And call no one my father who's no closer than a stranger
Guest Derek L Posted August 18, 2011 Report Posted August 18, 2011 http://www.therecord.com/news/business/article/580498--suncor-reviewing-impact-new-u-s-sanctions-on-syria-could-have-on-gas-project Suncor reviewing impact new U.S. sanctions on Syria could have on gas projectCALGARY — Suncor Energy Inc. said Thursday that it’s looking into how new U.S. sanctions on Syria could affect its natural gas project in the Middle Eastern country. “We’re in the middle of reviewing the sanctions announced by the U.S. as we speak, and we will comply with all applicable elements of those sanctions,” said spokesperson Kelli Stevens. Suncor, Canada’s largest energy company, has kept its Ebla natural gas project running throughout the recent crackdown on anti-government protests in Syria. The plant, which is far away from major population centres, generates electricity for domestic consumption in Syria. Uh-oh……Hope either side doesn’t start to threaten western owned companies.... Quote
William Ashley Posted October 14, 2011 Author Report Posted October 14, 2011 gloves are coming off http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/10/14/syria-travel-release.html Quote I was here.
William Ashley Posted October 14, 2011 Author Report Posted October 14, 2011 (edited) gloves are coming off http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/10/14/syria-travel-release.html http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Canada+warns+citizens+leave+Syria+immediately+assails+regime/5553135/story.html It is imminent if the embassy shuts down. http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/10/14/idINIndia-59902020111014 Edited October 14, 2011 by William Ashley Quote I was here.
ToadBrother Posted October 15, 2011 Report Posted October 15, 2011 (edited) http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Canada+warns+citizens+leave+Syria+immediately+assails+regime/5553135/story.html It is imminent if the embassy shuts down. http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/10/14/idINIndia-59902020111014 For the moment, Medved (or more properly, Putin with the Medved's strings in his hands) is giving Assad some rope, but I suspect at some point even the Russians will lose patience. I don't think any attack on Syria is imminent. This seems to be more a warning of "the government of Syria will kill anybody it views as protesters, so get out." Edited October 15, 2011 by ToadBrother Quote
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