Pollsters got it so wrong!

[Mr.Canada]

I think it's time to look at the pollsters in this country. Some of them were way off the mark by a large margin of error. Why do we continue to fund these groups?

Why is the CBC giving EKOS $61 Million per year? Their polls for this past election were very poor indeed and were not even close.

The final estimates of party support including today’s final sample are 33.9 points for the Conservatives, 31.2 for the NDP, 21.0 for the Liberals, 6.4 for the Bloc, and 6.0 for the Green Party.

After the ballots are counted tomorrow, we expect to see the following:

1) CPC: 130 to 146 seats

2) NDP: 103 to 123 seats

3) LPC: 36 to 46 seats

4) BQ: 10 to 20 seats

5) GP: 1 seat

Source

I find it funny how the other parties weren't too bad but the Tory numbers were way lower then what happened. Seems to be a correlation between CBC funding and low Tory numbers in the polls for EKOS.

[RNG]

I think it's time to look at the pollsters in this country. Some of them were way off the mark by a large margin of error. Why do we continue to fund these groups?

Why is the CBC giving EKOS $61 Million per year? Their polls for this past election were very poor indeed and were not even close.

I find it funny how the other parties weren't too bad but the Tory numbers were way lower then what happened. Seems to be a correlation between CBC funding and low Tory numbers in the polls for EKOS.

I mocked the pollsters all through this election and many kept asking me why they were so accurate. Well ...................

[Battletoads]

I find it funny how the other parties weren't too bad but the Tory numbers were way lower then what happened. Seems to be a correlation between CBC funding and low Tory numbers in the polls for EKOS.

If anything strong Con poll numbers would encourage ABC voters to get out the vote. Instead their poll number were weak...

Edited May 8, 2011 by Battletoads

[KeyStone]

I think it's time to look at the pollsters in this country. Some of them were way off the mark by a large margin of error. Why do we continue to fund these groups?

Why is the CBC giving EKOS $61 Million per year? Their polls for this past election were very poor indeed and were not even close.

I find it funny how the other parties weren't too bad but the Tory numbers were way lower then what happened. Seems to be a correlation between CBC funding and low Tory numbers in the polls for EKOS.

A poll like that does the Conservatives a favour.

Generally, if they are a threat to win a majority people don't want to vote for them, whereas they are not nearly as scared of them as a minority government.

[Oleg Bach]

Polls can be fabricated and the numbers fudged. Why would they not be? How can you prove that a polling company maniplated the figures...? You can't! They have some good lawyers that can spin their way out of any indiscretion. Rule by poll stinks. Even if they were totally legit...it is still a type of mob rule. I believe that George Bernard Shaw once said " The majority is always wrong".

As for CBC hiring pollsters with public money to manipultate or attempt to manipulate and election - It did not work. Once a person steps behind the voting curtain...they vote the way they really want to - not what is popular according to polls.. There is a nasty corner to proposed electronic voting - Is that people will KNOW how you voted and YOU will could be persecuted later.

I still stick to the idea that people are herd creatures and if they are told that "everyone is doing it" - most will follow like sheep - Polls should be outlawed if we want true and free democracy - what the hell do we really need them for anyway?

[Mr.Canada]

I'd like to see the CBC lose its funding altogether and become privately held. Their's no reason why Canada should have State owned television channels.

[Michael Hardner]

But why were they right about the NDP?

I think it's more likely that some blue Liberals went for Harper, fearing an NDP surge that was mirroring Ontario in 1991.

[Mr.Canada]

But why were they right about the NDP?

I think it's more likely that some blue Liberals went for Harper, fearing an NDP surge that was mirroring Ontario in 1991.

Ok so why didn't the EKOS polls indicate that trend? The Tories have been leading in Ontario since before the election was called. Yet the EKOS pollsters were calling f or the Liberals and Tories to be in a tie. This was an outright lie. The LPC was outright destroyed in Ontario.

The millions of dollars given to EKOS from the CBC was really just bribe money to make sure the Liberals don't appear as bad as they are. Plain and simple we don't need a state owned television station funded by tax dollars. We need to sell it off to private interests.

[Tilter]

Ok so why didn't the EKOS polls indicate that trend? The Tories have been leading in Ontario since before the election was called. Yet the EKOS pollsters were calling f or the Liberals and Tories to be in a tie. This was an outright lie. The LPC was outright destroyed in Ontario.

The millions of dollars given to EKOS from the CBC was really just bribe money to make sure the Liberals don't appear as bad as they are. Plain and simple we don't need a state owned television station funded by tax dollars. We need to sell it off to private interests.

If you phone the right people you get the right answers. They phoned the people that they knew would back the socialist idea & didn't bother phoning anyone west of the GTA.

Well, they got the right answers for themselves.

Next time they won't bother with the phone calls--- just call it as they they see it.

[betsy]

Senator Lebreton didn't buy what the pollsters and the media said. Throughout the whole campaign, she was confident about a Conservative majority. She told Craig Oliver that what the pollsters and the media were doing was just talking about it among themselves....whereas they (the Conservative MPs) were talking to the people and they could see a big difference in the reception that they got knocking door-to-door, compared to the last election campaign!

The media got all excited I guess in seeing a "stumped" Harper in the poll....happy that he couldn't break the "ceiling" to get his majority, even though these same media actually wondered why Harper seem so confident he will get his majority!

That confident stance by Harper ought to have been enough for further investigative reporting!

Perhaps Milewski, Fife and other media travelling with Harper should've knocked door-to-door to get the pulse of the people....instead of trying to trip up Harper into making statements that they can use against him!

Just getting the majority bomb explode in the media's face is another victory for Harper!

Edited May 8, 2011 by betsy

[Hydraboss]

I think it's time to look at the pollsters in this country. Some of them were way off the mark by a large margin of error. Why do we continue to fund these groups?

Why is the CBC giving EKOS $61 Million per year? Their polls for this past election were very poor indeed and were not even close.

I find it funny how the other parties weren't too bad but the Tory numbers were way lower then what happened. Seems to be a correlation between CBC funding and low Tory numbers in the polls for EKOS.

Uhm...as much as I looovveee the CBC [/sarcasm], this looks pretty damn accurate to me. When all the pollsters were announcing that "all bets were off" when it came to predictions, these idiots seems to have come pretty close.

Ekos / actual

CPC 130-146/167

NDP 103-123/102

Lib 36-46/34

BQ 10-20/4

Grn 1/1

They called the CPC as winning with a possible increase in seats. Missed.

They called the NDP in second place with a low count of 103. Missed by 1.

They called the Libs getting creamed down to 3rd with a low count of 36. Missed by 2.

They called the BQ getting bitch-slapped to second fiddle in Kwebek with a low count of 10. Missed by 6.

They called the Greens actually getting a seat. Bingo.

Considering this election was so upside down the last half, I actually think they did not bad considering even John Layton didn't predict his success.

Did I mention how much I love the Communist Broadcasting Corporation?

[bloodyminded]

Senator Lebreton didn't buy what the pollsters and the media said. Throughout the whole campaign, she was confident about a Conservative majority. She told Craig Oliver that what the pollsters and the media were doing was just talking about it among themselves....whereas they (the Conservative MPs) were talking to the people and they could see a big difference in the reception that they got knocking door-to-door, compared to the last election campaign!

The media got all excited I guess in seeing a "stumped" Harper in the poll....happy that he couldn't break the "ceiling" to get his majority, even though these same media actually wondered why Harper seem so confident he will get his majority!

That confident stance by Harper ought to have been enough for further investigative reporting!

Perhaps Milewski, Fife and other media travelling with Harper should've knocked door-to-door to get the pulse of the people....instead of trying to trip up Harper into making statements that they can use against him!

Just getting the majority bomb explode in the media's face is another victory for Harper!

Ah! the media is the enemy!

I hope the Prime Minister really sticks it to that mean old media!

Edited May 9, 2011 by bloodyminded

[Michael Hardner]

Ok so why didn't the EKOS polls indicate that trend? The Tories have been leading in Ontario since before the election was called. Yet the EKOS pollsters were calling f or the Liberals and Tories to be in a tie. This was an outright lie. The LPC was outright destroyed in Ontario.

Because it happened at the very last minute before the election.

[madmax]

Because it happened at the very last minute before the election.

I don't think it happened at the last minute at all.... Following the trends, it was a clear CPC wave happening that was steady as she goes. And many many many Liberal votes swung to the CPC. On the same note, to a smaller degree was a minor wave in Ontario for the NDP where some candidates jumped from 3rd or 2nd to first. But the Red team was dividing itself into 2 and depending on the riding, 2/3s of those leaving the party went CPC and 1/3 went NDP, which was enough to put one or the other ahead of the LPC.

The LPC were lucky to hold onto what they did and didn't meet the fate of the former PCs in 1993.

[capricorn]

And many many many Liberal votes swung to the CPC.

IMO the Conservatives owe their majority to ordinary ex-Liberal voters who did not care for a Lib/NDP/Bloc coalition, especially in Ontario. And I would add into the mix swing Liberal/Conservative voters who didn't warm to Ignatieff.

[MiddleClassCentrist]

I think it's time to look at the pollsters in this country. Some of them were way off the mark by a large margin of error. Why do we continue to fund these groups?

Why is the CBC giving EKOS $61 Million per year? Their polls for this past election were very poor indeed and were not even close.

I find it funny how the other parties weren't too bad but the Tory numbers were way lower then what happened. Seems to be a correlation between CBC funding and low Tory numbers in the polls for EKOS.

Actually, the polls were mostly right.

The only thing not accounted for in the polls was a 5% shift in Ontario toward conservative after Harper may an appeal to centre-right liberals on the Sunday before the election to stop the possibility of an NDP government. Ontario, being scared of NDP, switched just enough over night before the election. This wouldn't have been seen in the polls. This 5% shift is what really granted Stephen his majority.

EKOS also takes into account second choices. Second choices does not favour conservatives because fewer people are likely to switch to them.

Something you don't take into account, is how Pollsters are just fine tuning their ability to process data during an election. They often do it for much less than they would for a private business.

[MiddleClassCentrist]

I don't think it happened at the last minute at all.... Following the trends, it was a clear CPC wave happening that was steady as she goes.

No. Conservatives were always teetering in the range they end up getting. If you looked at the EKOS second choice, the Cons had very little room for growth but, they ended up capitalizing on that growth in a last minute appeal to centre-right Liberals. The NDP did not capitalize on their second choice growth potential(which was much higher than the conservatives)

[TimG]

The only thing not accounted for in the polls was a 5% shift in Ontario toward conservative after Harper may an appeal to centre-right liberals on the Sunday before the election to stop the possibility of an NDP government.

This is the second election in row where the pollsters grossly underestimated the conservative vote. I suspect there is a systematic bias in their methods rather than sudden shifts in voter intention. Edited May 10, 2011 by TimG

[punked]

This is the second election in row where the pollsters grossly underestimated the conservative vote. I suspect there is a systematic bias in their methods rather than sudden shifts in voter intention.

Angus Reid was bang on the Conservative vote last election.

[jbg]

I find it funny how the other parties weren't too bad but the Tory numbers were way lower then what happened. Seems to be a correlation between CBC funding and low Tory numbers in the polls for EKOS.

I mocked the pollsters all through this election and many kept asking me why they were so accurate. Well ...................

From what I've heard though they did no better predicting the Tories' implosion in 1993.

[RNG]

From what I've heard though they did no better predicting the Tories' implosion in 1993.

I'm not arguing one way or the other in terms of parties. I am arguing that polls and pollsters are POS's.

[ninjandrew]

Maybe the people they tend to poll just dont know what theyre talking about.

[fellowtraveller]

Jacques Layton should be howling for the dissolution of the CBC and the return of the $1 billion annual subsidy to general revenue.

He has a mandate to deliver pails of extra federal gravy to Quebec right now and he will need every spare dime.

Oh wait, he doesn't sign the cheques....

Edited May 10, 2011 by fellowtraveller

[MiddleClassCentrist]

This is the second election in row where the pollsters grossly underestimated the conservative vote. I suspect there is a systematic bias in their methods rather than sudden shifts in voter intention.

Yes... because there is systematic bias in the question: "If an election were held tomorrow, who would you vote for?" Remember, the polls are trying to prove they are the best at analysing data and getting the result of the election correct. I guess since the media now favours conservatives, the con party faithful need a new left wing boogey man.

The most polls can do is manipulate the time of day they send calls out. To get a Conservative bias, make the majority of polls during the day when retirees are more likely to answer the phone.

Maybe conservative voters are less likely to pick up the phone?

The only intentional bias I noticed as a for sure thing during this election was the shift in editorials to blatantly support Harper and his candidates with puff pieces. The didn't hide it either. My local paper endorsed the Conservative candidate giving him credit for funds that came to my riding during his time as MP but, he technically had very little to do with.

[Triple M]

Maybe Canadians were tired of getting polled constantly during the last 7 years of minorities that they mislead pollsters in frustrations.