Less than 2% increase in support = 20+ seats

[BC_chick]

It's a bit of a bitter-sweet victory for the NDP tonight. 10% increase in support more than tripled their number of seats while less than 2% increase in support handed Harper a comfortable majority. The numbers speak for themselves about the vote-splitting on the left.

As much as I like having options, I agree with the pundits that the huge surge in support for NDP shows that whether or not we like it, we are headed for a two-party system.

The right learned its lesson years ago, I hope the left does too and finally opens the door for a united centre-left party.

Edited May 3, 2011 by BC_chick

[kimmy]

It's (as Chantel Hebert put it) a "Chretien majority". Chretien got 41%, 38%, 40% of the popular vote... and it gave him 11 straight years of majority government, because the votes split the right way.

-k

[ToadBrother]

It's a bit of a bitter-sweet victory for the NDP tonight. 10% increase in support more than tripled their number of seats while less than 2% increase in support handed Harper a comfortable majority. The numbers speak for themselves about the vote-splitting on the left.

As much as I like having options, I agree with the pundits that the huge surge in support for NDP shows that whether or not we like it, we are headed for a two-party system.

Our system, for better or worse, functions best in this environment.

The right learned its lesson years ago, I hope the left does too and finally opens the door for a united centre-left party.

I think the Liberals will resist it, the weight of history will prevent them from an easy takeover. Mind you, the PCs held out for the better part of a decade from the overtures of Reform. It's hard for a party with a long electoral history to admit that it has become irrelevant, but if the Liberals take the same electoral path that the PCs did in the 1990s, their demise as such will be inevitable.

[TimG]

As much as I like having options, I agree with the pundits that the huge surge in support for NDP shows that whether or not we like it, we are headed for a two-party system.

I would not assume that there is much to be gained by a merger since the remaining Liberal vote could easily go Tory if there is a shotgun merger of the parties.

[BC_chick]

It's (as Chantel Hebert put it) a "Chretien majority". Chretien got 41%, 38%, 40% of the popular vote... and it gave him 11 straight years of majority government, because the votes split the right way.

-k

Agreed 100%.

And obviously with a united left a lot of Liberals will jump ship to the conservative side and we'll end up with a 45-45 ratio with the independent 10 making the pendulum swing in one direction or the other every so often.

I've always believed that the pendulum changes direction not because of what the incoming party is promising, but because the governing party has abused its power after a period of complacency.

Of course the ability to change direction is what protects citizens in a society, but if the left continues to be divided we will see the same kind inevitable corruption from the CPC that plagued the Liberals when the right was split and the Liberals knew they didn't have to do anything to win.

For the good of the country, I hope the left unites.

Edited May 3, 2011 by BC_chick

[Shakeyhands]

I, for one, am looking forward to seeing the platform of the new Liberal Democrats.

[Michael Hardner]

I don't like the prospect of a Liberal-NDP merger. Right leaning Liberals will leave and the parties will devolve into the Democrats and Republicans. Three or four national parties with FPTP makes for a good mix of stability and change IMO.

[Shwa]

Agreed 100%.

And obviously with a united left a lot of Liberals will jump ship to the conservative side and we'll end up with a 45-45 ratio with the independent 10 making the pendulum swing in one direction or the other every so often.

I've always believed that the pendulum changes direction not because of what the incoming party is promising, but because the governing party has abused its power after a period of complacency.

Of course the ability to change direction is what protects citizens in a society, but if the left continues to be divided we will see the same kind inevitable corruption from the CPC that plagued the Liberals when the right was split and the Liberals knew they didn't have to do anything to win.

For the good of the country, I hope the left unites.

No. And it never will. Liberals are a centrist party and that is what they will be aiming to rebuild towards. The NDP is not centrist and the CPC is only holding the line to maintain power, but they are right of centre. Once the Liberals have a real leader, a real bona fide leader who will stand up and not be afraid to speak the obvious, the centrists from both parties will, hopefully, return.

This CPC majority was on the backs of protesting Liberals as was the surprising NDP surge. This is actually a damned good thing for the LPC since it gives them the impetus to change directions, cut away the deadwood and move into the 21st century.

[Molly]

No. And it never will. Liberals are a centrist party and that is what they will be aiming to rebuild towards. The NDP is not centrist and the CPC is only holding the line to maintain power, but they are right of centre.

Damn straight.

[Black Dog]

No. And it never will. Liberals are a centrist party and that is what they will be aiming to rebuild towards. The NDP is not centrist and the CPC is only holding the line to maintain power, but they are right of centre. Once the Liberals have a real leader, a real bona fide leader who will stand up and not be afraid to speak the obvious, the centrists from both parties will, hopefully, return.

This CPC majority was on the backs of protesting Liberals as was the surprising NDP surge. This is actually a damned good thing for the LPC since it gives them the impetus to change directions, cut away the deadwood and move into the 21st century.

Which direction, though? They can't out-left the NDs and they can't out-crazy the Cons.

[bush_cheney2004]

I don't like the prospect of a Liberal-NDP merger. Right leaning Liberals will leave and the parties will devolve into the Democrats and Republicans. Three or four national parties with FPTP makes for a good mix of stability and change IMO.

No they won't...Democrats and Republicans are evolved American political parties, not collapsing relics from the past!

[Tilter]

It's a bit of a bitter-sweet victory for the NDP tonight. 10% increase in support more than tripled their number of seats while less than 2% increase in support handed Harper a comfortable majority. The numbers speak for themselves about the vote-splitting on the left.

As much as I like having options, I agree with the pundits that the huge surge in support for NDP shows that whether or not we like it, we are headed for a two-party system.

The right learned its lesson years ago, I hope the left does too and finally opens the door for a united centre-left party.

Good--- it's about time-- a strong government & a strong opposition will make a strong government. I'm also hope as an old fart, that the proposed budget will be again tabled & passed. We can also wave goodbye to the long gun registry and that the refining of the crime bills will continue. Maybe Harper will once again give the victims of crime more rights than the criminals.

[Shwa]

Which direction, though? They can't out-left the NDs and they can't out-crazy the Cons.

The direction that requires the present party elite to remove their heads from their anuses. I think last nights election results acted like a shoe-horn for some of them. The others? Just roll them down the hill to retirement.

[Benz]

I also desagree. LPC and NDP are not in the same political area. LPC is centrist, NPD is leftist. It is a clear win for the righwing. No divided left.

Except in Québec. The french were divided between NDP (left) and the Bloc (center-left). NDP won this time almost everywhere even if the Bloc was its closier challenger. With few exceptions. The english part of Quebec voted liberals again.

So the map is very clear. Québec choosed the leftwing, english canada choosed the rightwing. Once again, even when Québec chooses a federalist party, it is at total opposite of the english canada's choice.

The result looks a little bit like the 1993's scenario. Except that the players are the opposites. Québec shifted from the Bloc to NDP and the ROC shifted from the Libs to the Conservatives.

Perhaps it is a normal cycle. I would never have bet on that though.

Edited May 3, 2011 by Benz

[noahbody]

I also desagree. LPC and NDP are not in the same political area. LPC is centrist, NPD is leftist. It is a clear win for the righwing. No divided left.

The Liberals have definitely moved further to the left. That's why they weakened their brand. They need to move back towards the centre. Their biggest problem is that the Conservatives now have an opportunity to show Canadians that the scary hidden agenda was nothing more than playing politics.

[Benz]

The Liberals have definitely moved further to the left. That's why they weakened their brand.

Not at all. They are weak because they were the most corrupted of all time and failed to prove they would do otherwise in the future. The libs are just disconnected and not trusted. Nothing to do with right-left-center.

They need to move back towards the centre.

They need more than that.

Their biggest problem is that the Conservatives now have an opportunity to show Canadians that the scary hidden agenda was nothing more than playing politics.

One thing for sure, the speculation is over. We will soon know the truth. Whether it is true or not.