Realistically, how big a majority could Layton get?

[cybercoma]

More good news for Layton

Broken link.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gz5y9hERuULoEeVKth2LbF0F9xWg?docId=6684633

[Harry]

OK thanks, I fixed it.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gz5y9hERuULoEeVKth2LbF0F9xWg?docId=6684633

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

Check out these regionals:

NDP trail Tories by just three points, new poll finds

NDP trail Tories by just three points, new poll finds

Fred Greenslade/Reuters

Canada's NDP leader Jack Layton raises his cane at a campaign rally in Winnipeg, Manitoba

.Comments Twitter LinkedIn Email .Kathryn Blaze Carlson Apr 27, 2011 – 2:57 PM ET | Last Updated: Apr 27, 2011 4:16 PM ET

Conservative leader Stephen Harper no longer enjoys a comfortable lead ahead of the surging NDP, as a new poll shows the left-leaning party swelling to within just a few points of the reigning Tories.

According to the latest Forum Research poll, Jack Layton’s party enjoys the support of 31% of those surveyed — only three points behind the governing Conservatives, who fell to 34% from the 36% support the party gleaned as of April 21. The Liberals, having been reduced to third place in a slew of recent polls, dwindled to 22% in this latest survey, while the Bloc Quebecois remained unchanged at 6%.

If these numbers are reflected on polling day, the NDP could grow from 37 to 108 seats in the House of Commons, forming the official opposition in a Parliament that would host 137 Tory MPs, 60 Liberals, and just 3 Bloc representatives. The poll, based on a telephone survey of 3,150 randomly selected eligible voters across the country, was conducted on Tuesday.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/04/27/ndp-trail-tories-by-just-three-points-new-poll-finds/

[Topaz]

I think Harper will be lucky to keep the seats he had. Didn't most of Harper's support come from out west? I've been many forums and I keep reading how people dislike Harper more than the party itself, so I think the party would be bettr without him. I think Jack is in the lead because the separatist had enough of Gilles and started the ball rolling for voters going to the NDP instead of the usual Tories and Libs, and they want change. It was reported on the news that the advance polls had more voters than in 2008 and we still have May 2nd coming up. Who knows, it could be a tie for the Tories and NDP, then who would win over the Libs? I rather see Jack with a majority than Harper.

[ToadBrother]

I think Harper will be lucky to keep the seats he had. Didn't most of Harper's support come from out west?

The Tories are still strongest int he West, but it's interesting that some areas of BC that have been Reform/Conservative fortresses for years are now very much in play.

I've been many forums and I keep reading how people dislike Harper more than the party itself, so I think the party would be bettr without him. I think Jack is in the lead because the separatist had enough of Gilles and started the ball rolling for voters going to the NDP instead of the usual Tories and Libs, and they want change. It was reported on the news that the advance polls had more voters than in 2008 and we still have May 2nd coming up. Who knows, it could be a tie for the Tories and NDP, then who would win over the Libs? I rather see Jack with a majority than Harper.

The problem here is that folks confuse soft nationalists with the Separatists. There is overlap to be sure, but they are two different groups.

[Posc Student]

People should remember that in last years' British election the Liberal Democrats dropped between 3% to 5% from the final opinion polls to the election results, the lowest level they had seen since the begining of the campaign.

[Harry]

Every day seems to get better and better for Layton

Gérald Larose s'excuse d'avoir traité Layton «d'imposteur» et de «crapule»

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/BV.aspx?ref=IE8Activity&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cyberpresse.ca%2Factualites%2Felections-federales%2F201104%2F27%2F01-4393918-gerald-larose-sexcuse-davoir-traite-layton-dimposteur-et-de-crapule.php%3Futm_categorieinterne%3Dtrafficdrivers%26utm_contenuinterne%3Dcyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS3

[cybercoma]

People should remember that in last years' British election the Liberal Democrats dropped between 3% to 5% from the final opinion polls to the election results, the lowest level they had seen since the begining of the campaign.

Weren't the Liberal Democrats on a backwards slide going into the election though? I don't remember.

[Posc Student]

Weren't the Liberal Democrats on a backwards slide going into the election though? I don't remember.

I'm not sure they ended up winning less seats then they did in the previous election. Their support peaked mid campaign fell slightly and then dropped from the polls to the polling booth.

[punked]

Realistically, he can't get a majority. Not even close. He'll be lucky to finish in 2nd place. And even that's not a given with a week left.

Votes on Monday there isn't a week left. There is 4 days left. I week might be a lot of time in politics 4 days isn't.

[punked]

I'm not sure they ended up winning less seats then they did in the previous election. Their support peaked mid campaign fell slightly and then dropped from the polls to the polling booth.

They Lost seats. I can tell you one thing though, Nick Clegg is no Jack Layton. Nick Clegg is a Micheal Igginatiff he seemed like a good idea for the first two weeks until you actually looked at him and his party. Interestingly enough Clegg is actually Iggy's cousin. I totally see it, birds of feather.

No this election is very different from the UK election.

Edited April 27, 2011 by punked

[nittanylionstorm07]

I'm not sure they ended up winning less seats then they did in the previous election. Their support peaked mid campaign fell slightly and then dropped from the polls to the polling booth.

If you aren't sure, then perhaps you shouldn't bring it up since the Lib Dems polling support was falling as election day approached and they committed several gaffes during the last week of the campaign. This is not to mention that the lib Dems are more similar to the liberals in Canada and Labour is most similar to the NDP. The two parties are only similar for the fact that historically they are third. Canada is also not the UK. For examples of third parties, you are better served looking at the mechanics behind NDP in Ontario in 1990, Nova Scotia in 2009, and the ADQ IN Quebec in 2007. That is what Canada is like.

Edited April 27, 2011 by nittanylionstorm07

[ToadBrother]

If you aren't sure, then perhaps you shouldn't bring it up since the Lib Dems polling support was falling as election day approached and they committed several gaffes during the last week of the campaign. This is not to mention that the lib Dems are more similar to the liberals in Canada and Labour is most similar to the NDP. The two parties are only similar for the fact that historically they are third. Canada is also not the UK. For examples of third parties, you are better served looking at the mechanics behind NDP in Ontario in 1990, Nova Scotia in 2009, and the ADQ IN Quebec in 2007. That is what Canada is like.

As I recall, there were a number of Tories who thought that if the election had been a few days longer, they would have achieved a majority.

[eyeball]

The Tories are still strongest int he West, but it's interesting that some areas of BC that have been Reform/Conservative fortresses for years are now very much in play.

If this poll is any indication of how much our's might be in play things don't look so good for hang em' high Lunney.

Do you agree with the Conservative policy on building more prisions

Yes (1)

4%

No (22)

96%

Don't Know (0)

0%

Alberni Nanaimo

[ToadBrother]

If this poll is any indication of how much our's might be in play things don't look so good for hang em' high Lunney.

Good. He's been the chief reason I refuse to vote Tory.

[Moonlight Graham]

i'll make a prediction, where NDP gets about 60 seats.

[Battletoads]

Good. He's been the chief reason I refuse to vote Tory.

We can always hope the 'Orange Crush' put Maartman ahead of him... Still she would have to jump ~20% from last election.

[Posc Student]

If you aren't sure, then perhaps you shouldn't bring it up since the Lib Dems polling support was falling as election day approached and they committed several gaffes during the last week of the campaign. This is not to mention that the lib Dems are more similar to the liberals in Canada and Labour is most similar to the NDP. The two parties are only similar for the fact that historically they are third. Canada is also not the UK. For examples of third parties, you are better served looking at the mechanics behind NDP in Ontario in 1990, Nova Scotia in 2009, and the ADQ IN Quebec in 2007. That is what Canada is like.

I don't no why I'm bothering to respond to you but the fact is the last polling done before the election showed them several percent higher and there rise is very similar to what is happening with the NDP. I don't no what the fact that their policies are closer to the Liberals has to do with anything because it's not the point I was making.

[ToadBrother]

We can always hope the 'Orange Crush' put Maartman ahead of him... Still she would have to jump ~20% from last election.

It's a tall order, to be sure, and the folks in the Qualicum-Parksville conservative nexus would vote for a monkey if it wore Tory blue.

[cybercoma]

Yes, but they were sliipping in the polls going into the election. It's a different scenario. If anything it only supports the argument that the NDP may end up several points higher after the election.

[Keepitsimple]

Remember the Blue Door and the Red Door? I can see a cartoon where Jumpin' Jack walks through a big Orange Door and pulls the lever on the Red Door - a trap door - and Iggy goes whizzing through.

[Harry]

Layton was on fire tonite, tearing strip aftger strip off Harper in Alberta.

Layton would make best PM, voters say

Poll after poll Wednesday confirmed Jack Laytons NDP is in a solid second place, even as a new leadership survey suggests Canadians now feel hed make the best prime minister of the pack.

The unprecedented boost in NDP support shows itself in a new leadership poll by Ipsos Reid, which found Mr. Layton is the best candidate for prime minister.

The poll conducted for Postmedia News and Global National saw 45% of respondents rank Mr. Layton as the best prime minister material, just cruising past Conservative leader Stephen Harper who sits at 42% in that category after falling five points from two weeks ago. But despite Mr. Laytons success in that category, the Conservative leader is still seen as the man who will get things done, and shepherd the country through tough economic times, the poll found.

On all the issues of competence, particularly as they relate to economic competence, Harper continues to lead the pack, said Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker.

Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff fared the worst in the leadership poll, with only 13% of the 1,023 adults surveyed saying hes the best bet for prime minister. Thats down six points from when the same question was posed two weeks ago. The sample size for this poll, conducted online between April 19 and 21st, would usually have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/04/27/layton-would-make-best-pm-voters-say/

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[Handsome Rob]

A little perspective, if 2008 were on Monday:

Harper would need 8,080 more votes for a majority.

Ignatief would need 405,361 more votes for a majority.

Layton would need 1,164,829 more votes for a majority.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ah9DcIZKQWcUdHR0ZUc1ZDNKY1pacllqREZ0SmJfWkE&hl=en&authkey=CLKy-JQM

That was done in my spare time on a slow work day, please no citations for lapses of dyslexia and such. It should be pretty on point but I wouldn't try to vouch for 100%.

[capricorn]

Remember the Blue Door and the Red Door? I can see a cartoon where Jumpin' Jack walks through a big Orange Door and pulls the lever on the Red Door - a trap door - and Iggy goes whizzing through.

Walks? Rather, I see him blasting through the door, with springs under his shoes.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I don't no why I'm bothering to respond to you but the fact is the last polling done before the election showed them several percent higher and there rise is very similar to what is happening with the NDP. I don't no what the fact that their policies are closer to the Liberals has to do with anything because it's not the point I was making.

Follow the LD trend from the first debate. It's a steady decline in interest. That combined with Clegg's gaffes are not going to encourage voters to get to the polls.

The NDP have been on a solid, steady rise with no sign of weakening. Completely different.