Who will replace Harper as Tory Leader?

[Shady]

Well, their surge started in Quebec, but the latest poll numbers suggest the NDP may gain a lot of seats almost all across Canada.

Complete nonsense. I've never seen such ridiculous hysteria. With their latest poll numbers they're still going to have half as many seats as the Conservatives. Since when did possibly coming in 2nd place mean winning an election. As usual with the NDP, the bar is set very, very low.

[Bonam]

Complete nonsense. I've never seen such ridiculous hysteria. With their latest poll numbers they're still going to have half as many seats as the Conservatives. Since when did possibly coming in 2nd place mean winning an election. As usual with the NDP, the bar is set very, very low.

Oh, I agree, I also think the Conservatives are pretty much guaranteed to still come in first place. But I think it's clear that the NDP replacing the Liberals as the 2nd party is a big shift in Canadian politics, which has been dominated by Conservatives (in one or another incarnation) vs Liberals for a long long time.

[Smallc]

No. It says that Layout has whipped out a checkbook and he is spending money from other provinces in order to buy those votes

No, it doesn't necessarily mean that at all. You're just trying to continue the stereotype of him being some kind of drunken sailor socialist.

[Smallc]

Since when did possibly coming in 2nd place mean winning an election.

When you have never been that high before...and when the ability to govern is not necessarily determined by who gets the most seats, especially in what appears to be another minority parliament.

[Harry]

Jason Kenny, Jim Prentice, Stockwell Day and Peter MacKay are 4 possible contenders for the Tory throne, once Conservatives clue in to the fact that they are never going to get a majority with Harper. I wonder who will be the first one to stick the knife in.

It appears that Harper, Ignatieff, and Duceppe will all be looking for other work quite soon.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[Moonlight Graham]

For one, it's still pretty much a certainty the conservatives will win the most seats. Harper will be in the same situation as he's always been since becoming prime minister, except perhaps with an NDP official opposition instead of a liberal one.

You forget, if NDP get the 2nd-most votes and its a CPC minority, Jack could try to form a coalition, as he seems to be very eager to have done in the past. Hard to see the Liberals going along with that, since it wouldn't guarantee them much power yet could put the lid on the coffin for the party for a long time for many voters.

I think Harper could lose a few elections and not be ousted, if he was interested in staying as leader. Heck, he could be leader of the conservatives for another 10 years at the least.

I highly doubt he'll be leader over the next decade if he doesn't get a majority the next couple of elections.

[KeyStone]

It will be John Baird.

[Rick]

You're kidding yourself if you think Harper is well liked outside of Conservative quarters, and it is his inability to work with others is why we are having this election. He's toast.

While I agree with your statements about only his devoted sheep being gullible enough to still like him... I have the feeling that Harper's ego is too big for him to admit that he's been a total failure and failed to appeal to Canadians through multiple elections to gain the trust of a majority.

So he'll stay on to feed his ego much like most dictators refuse to give up power even when the people rebuke their message.

[Shakeyhands]

It will be John Baird.

Good luck with that one, it will never happen.

[Topaz]

The next leader of the Tories will have to be a leader that cares more about the country and not playing games like Harper. I know there members in the Tory party that don't like some of the stuff that Harper's pulled because he does reflect back on him but they don't dare say anything or end up like Helena. It wouldn't surprise me to see McKay and someone from the west, it all depends on who Harper wants. It would be interesting to have Danny Williams try for the PMO.

[Harry]

Harper's in full-blown panic mode now.

As if anyone is listening to that windbag anymore.

Growing NDP support 'crystallizes' coalition threat: Harper

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/canada/Growing+support+crystallizes+coalition+threat+Harper/4683312/story.html

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

Harper's in full-blown panic mode now.

He should be, because if the Bloc numbers keep falling, it means that an NDP-Liberal coalition would not require the dreaded Separatists.

[Harry]

Wait until you see the latest poll - Harper is so dead!

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[August1991]

He should be, because if the Bloc numbers keep falling, it means that an NDP-Liberal coalition would not require the dreaded Separatists.

TB, why would the Liberals enter a formal coalition to make Jack Layton PM?

[ToadBrother]

TB, why would the Liberals enter a formal coalition to make Jack Layton PM?

The Liberals after May 2nd are going to be a different creature. Iggy will be gone, there's no obvious replacement. It's clear they won't be the Official Opposition, so they lose the parliamentary funding and prestige that goes with it. They're caucus is going to have to plant support somewhere or risk having both the Tories and NDP trying to tear it to pieces. As they old saying goes, better a powered crash than falling out of the sky.

[TimG]

They're caucus is going to have to plant support somewhere or risk having both the Tories and NDP trying to tear it to pieces. As they old saying goes, better a powered crash than falling out of the sky.

The CPC has in interest in keeping the Libs alive. The NDP will want to assimilate them. I suspect they will be better off doing a deal with the CPC as long as they want to stay an indepedent party.

[ToadBrother]

The CPC has in interest in keeping the Libs alive. The NDP will want to assimilate them. I suspect they will be better off doing a deal with the CPC as long as they want to stay an indepedent party.

That makes sense. It may not be a formal coalition, though even in a formal coalition, the partnering parties still maintain their own caucuses and internal party structure and its up to the leaders and whips to make sure everyone is on board. But certainly some sort of an agreement.

A lot of this depends on how far the Liberals fall, and right now they seem to have stepped into a chasm whose bottom could be below 60 seats.

Edited April 27, 2011 by ToadBrother

[Posc Student]

The chances of a Conservative majority is drifting further away by the day so hopefully Harper will resign as leader soon. If he does I will be happy to get a Conservative membership and vote in an upcoming convention. Peter Mackay, Bernard Lord, Christian Paradis, Tony Clement, John Baird and James Moore are all potential leadership candidates that I could support, there are probably others as well. I would probably like to see an Atlantic Canadian take the post though.