Who will replace Harper as Tory Leader?

[Harry]

With the NDP at 30% tonite, within 5% of first place, the continuing NDP momentum which has turned into a Canadian political tsunami, and with only 5 days left to campaign, it is obvious that 'Loser' Harper has failed in his bid to win a majority governemnt, and even winning a conservative minority government is no longer assured.

As a result the knives will be out for Harper's failed Leadership.

Who are the most likely candidates to succeed Harper?

[nittanylionstorm07]

With the NDP at 30% tonite, within 5% of first place, the continuing NDP momentum which has turned into a Canadian political tsunami, and with only 5 days left to campaign, it is obvious that 'Loser' Harper has failed in his bid to win a majority governemnt, and even winning a conservative minority government is no longer assured.

As a result the knives will be out for Harper's failed Leadership.

Who are the most likely candidates to succeed Harper?

Flaherty will be caretaker until Wall resigns premiership and enters federal politics.

[Tilter]

Prime Ministers don't have to defend their Offices, just the losers Guess who that will be (clue-red is the flagship)

[RNG]

Wasn't it Mark Twain who said "the reports of my death are greatly exaggerated"?

Edited April 27, 2011 by RNG

[Harry]

Go ahead, bury your head in the sand. The NDP tsunami hasn't happened - it's all a mirage.

Angus Reid the most accurate pollster last election didn't come out with a poll today showing the NDP at 30% and up 12% from their 2008 election results, and didn't show the Cons down 3% from their 2008 election results.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[punked]

Wasn't it Mark Twain who said "the reports of my death are greatly exaggerated"?

No I think you are thinking of the EKOS headline about 2 weeks ago.

"The reports of the NDP's demise were greatly exaggerated"

You were close though.

[Harry]

Bingo!

[Posc Student]

Lets see if the "NDP" momentum, which I think is Layton momentum and yes there's a difference, holds up on election day.

I'd love to see Harper resign no matter the outcome, majority, minority, second party or third party, I'll be on the Conservative website ASAP buying a membership. Some of my choices in no particular order would be:

Peter MacKay - only started liking him recently.

Christian Paradis - a moderate Quebecker would be good for the party, though he's had his controversies lately.

Tony Clement - I like that he actually has a personality.

John Baird - I think he's a great MP and Minister, his well known pitbull image may be hard for people to foget.

James Moore - One of my favourites.

Bernard Lord - Don't know a whole lot about him but he seems like he could be a good choice.

There's others I've thought of I'm sure. I'd like a good moderate conservative, no social conservative. My fear is that Harper junior will be picked, aka Jason Kenney.

[cybercoma]

If Peter McKay takes over, I'll vote for him. Just as a matter of giving Belinda Stronach the middle-finger.

Edited April 27, 2011 by cybercoma

[Bonam]

For one, it's still pretty much a certainty the conservatives will win the most seats. Harper will be in the same situation as he's always been since becoming prime minister, except perhaps with an NDP official opposition instead of a liberal one. Even if he did lose though, I'm not sure the conservative party would immediately break out the knives to depose him. Whether one likes him or not, it is plain that he is well regarded as a leader by many Canadians and has led the conservative party to relative success, as well as presiding over one of the most stable and longest lasting minority governments. Plus, he's still quite young as party leaders go.

The NDP and Bloc have run countless elections which they lost, and didn't throw out their leaders. I think the cons would be no different. It's only the liberals that seem itchy to scapegoat their failures on the party leader and throw him to the wolves after each lost election. I think Harper could lose a few elections and not be ousted, if he was interested in staying as leader. Heck, he could be leader of the conservatives for another 10 years at the least.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Bonam

[Harry]

You're kidding yourself if you think Harper is well liked outside of Conservative quarters, and it is his inability to work with others is why we are having this election. He's toast.

[Posc Student]

Why doesn't anyone ever give suggesstions on the next leaders?

[cybercoma]

Harper will be around for a long time. For better or worse, he made the right what it is today.

[ToadBrother]

For one, it's still pretty much a certainty the conservatives will win the most seats. Harper will be in the same situation as he's always been since becoming prime minister, except perhaps with an NDP official opposition instead of a liberal one. Even if he did lose though, I'm not sure the conservative party would immediately break out the knives to depose him. Whether one likes him or not, it is plain that he is well regarded as a leader by many Canadians and has led the conservative party to relative success, as well as presiding over one of the most stable and longest lasting minority governments. Plus, he's still quite young as party leaders go.

It's hard to read at this point. I'm thinking that if the NDP do indeed get Official Opposition status they may very well force the Tories to do all sorts of awkward things to keep their hold on power. The fact is, no matter how you look at it, the Tories are on a much shorter leash than they have been for the last four years. If Harper tries to engineer any stupidity like he did after the 2008 election and loses the government over a Throne Speech, he'll be a human cannonball shot out of the leadership.

Edited April 27, 2011 by ToadBrother

[RNG]

It's hard to read at this point. I'm thinking that if the NDP do indeed get Official Opposition status they may very well force the Tories to do all sorts of awkward things to keep their hold on power. The fact is, no matter how you look at it, the Tories are on a much shorter leash than they have been for the last four years. If Harper tries to engineer any stupidity like he did after the 2008 election and loses the government over a Throne Speech, he'll be a human cannonball shot out of the leadership.

Which actually might benefit the Tories. I am a Conservative, but hate Harper. But he's still better than Cracker-Jack or the Igg.

[TimG]

It's hard to read at this point. I'm thinking that if the NDP do indeed get Official Opposition status they may very well force the Tories to do all sorts of awkward things to keep their hold on power. The fact is, no matter how you look at it, the Tories are on a much shorter leash than they have been for the last four years.

It will really be interesting to see how the Liberals react. Forming a coalition with the NDP as the senior member would be their death warrant but many Libs want to be in power. A better strategy would be to remain independent and demonstrate that they are better able to get things done by working with the Tories than the NDP. That, of course, depends on Harper realizing that it is in his best interest to keep the Liberals alive. Edited April 27, 2011 by TimG

[cybercoma]

Do not use diminutives or character substitutions in proper names that are not recognized by the original person to whom the reference is being made. For example, Prime Minister Stephen Harper does not identify himself as Stevie therefore, it is unacceptable to identify him as Stevie. Likewise, Paul Martin does not identify himself as Mr. Dithers, therefore, it is unacceptable to identify him as Mr. Dithers.

Edited April 27, 2011 by cybercoma

[ToadBrother]

Which actually might benefit the Tories. I am a Conservative, but hate Harper. But he's still better than Cracker-Jack or the Igg.

If the trends hold out, Harper is going to have to offer Layton something to soothe the obvious desire to be the first NDP Prime Minister of Canada.

[Bonam]

It's hard to read at this point. I'm thinking that if the NDP do indeed get Official Opposition status they may very well force the Tories to do all sorts of awkward things to keep their hold on power. The fact is, no matter how you look at it, the Tories are on a much shorter leash than they have been for the last four years. If Harper tries to engineer any stupidity like he did after the 2008 election and loses the government over a Throne Speech, he'll be a human cannonball shot out of the leadership.

You're right, it's hard to predict what will happen. I just don't see the knives out for Harper at all in the conservative party though. Liberals were talking about getting rid of Dion and now of Ignatieff almost from day one, constantly second guessing themselves if they picked the right leader. That kind of mindset just doesn't seem as prevalent in the other 3 parties.

Anyway, with NDP as official opposition, Harper will now have the flexibility of dealing with the devastated Liberals as a third party. Not being official opposition, Ignatieff will be able to make deals with Harper to support him. And the Liberals definitely won't be itching for another election so soon after getting so badly mangled in this one.

[Shady]

Harper is still going to be PM after the election. Why would they replace him? And let's face it. The only way the NDP could increase it's support is was from the largest group of anti-Canadian voters in the country. It speaks volumes as to what kind of party they represent.

[TimG]

Anyway, with NDP as official opposition, Harper will now have the flexibility of dealing with the devastated Liberals as a third party. Not being official opposition, Ignatieff will be able to make deals with Harper to support him. And the Liberals definitely won't be itching for another election so soon after getting so badly mangled in this one.

What is really interesting is the BQ will become useless party if it can't get enough seats to prevent a Lib+NDP majority. No one would bother talking to them because there support won't help pass legislation.

[Smallc]

Harper is still going to be PM after the election. Why would they replace him? And let's face it.

Well, it's starting to look possible that Jack Layton might replace him...after the Throne Speech, perhaps.

The only way the NDP could increase it's support is was from the largest group of anti-Canadian voters in the country. It speaks volumes as to what kind of party they represent.

Or, it says that those people really aren't all that anti Canadian.

[Bonam]

Harper is still going to be PM after the election. Why would they replace him? And let's face it. The only way the NDP could increase it's support is was from the largest group of anti-Canadian voters in the country. It speaks volumes as to what kind of party they represent.

Well, their surge started in Quebec, but the latest poll numbers suggest the NDP may gain a lot of seats almost all across Canada.

What is really interesting is the BQ will become useless party if it can't get enough seats to prevent a Lib+NDP majority. No one would bother talking to them because there support won't help pass legislation.

Yep, whatever else happens this election, even if we end up with an NDP/Lib coalition, striking a death blow to the bloc may well be worth it.

[TimG]

Or, it says that those people really aren't all that anti Canadian.

No. It says that Layout has whipped out a checkbook and he is spending money from other provinces in order to buy those votes. i.e. when asked about the loan guarantee to NF (only a loan guarantee - no cash) - he promises billions in cash for "green energy" in Quebec. There is no limit to the amount of other people's money this guy will promise. Edited April 27, 2011 by TimG

[August1991]

Based on the current polls, it looks as if the Liberals are going to (unofficially) support a Conservative minority government. I can't see the Liberals defeating the NDP and then supporting Layton as PM.

So, Harper will be PM for at least a year (or more) while the Liberals sort themselves out and find not only a new leader, but also a new mantra.

The other party that will be looking for a new leader will be the Bloc. In fact, there'll be a much bigger shake up in Quebec among the Parti Québécois. You can expect the usually explanation that the Bloc's failure is not the same as the PQ. (The Bloc before polled poorly, and many will note that the NDP has captured the same nationalist vote... )

And as to the NDP? Well, the ADQ did very well in one election, and then its support collapse to 3 seats.

When the NDP caucus meets and Quebec voters see who they've elected, general amusement will follow:

Some NDP candidates in Quebec might be itching for a trip to Vegas given their sudden run of good luck in the polls.

One of them has already jumped the gun.

Ruth Ellen Brosseau is the party’s candidate in Berthier-Maskinongé, a riding north of the Saint Lawrence between Montreal and Trois-Rivières.

Until last week, she'd been working in Ottawa – about three hours away from the riding – as an assistant manager of Oliver's Pub, on the Carleton University campus.

And this week?

“She’s actually in Las Vegas,” says her boss, Rod Castro.

G&M

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The NDP's current numbers are driven by Quebec where this a bandwagon effect. (IME, Quebecers don't like to "waste" their vote.) There's also a distinct desire to defeat Harper.

To the question: "The Conservative government has performed poorly, and does not deserve to form a government after the next election", 61% of Quebecers said yes. Angus-Reid

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So, who will replace Harper as the next Conservative leader? I'd say Maxime Bernier. (You heard it here first.)

Bernier understands that this socialist fantasyland of constantly promising more extensive government services may seem popular now but is unsustainable.