NDP: Official Opposition or Jack Layton as PM?

[August1991]

Current polls show the NDP in second place, ahead of the Liberals. Using these popular vote totals, and spreading them across ridings, seat projections would be something like:

CPC: 130

NDP: 100

Lib: 60

Bloc: 15

Now, here's the point. If this were to happen, would the Liberals support Jack Layton as PM? Or would the Liberals support Harper?

At 60 seats and in third place, Ignatieff would be forced to resign. This would mean that the Liberals would have to go through a period of renewal and choose a new leader.

To support the NDP and Layton as PM, the Liberals would immediately after an election have to deliberately defeat a Conservative government confidence motion, then have the GG ask Layton to form a government and then the Liberals would have to support this NDP government in House votes.

To do this, the Liberals would be committing political suicide - unless they felt that an NDP government would be so incompetent that within a year, it would fall and we'd be back into an election. That would be a devilish strategy.

I think that it is more likely that a rump Liberal party would simply support a minority Conservative government until the Liberals had a chance to renew themselves.

Edited April 26, 2011 by August1991

[eyeball]

I think that it is more likely that a rump Liberal party would simply support a minority Conservative government until the Liberals had a chance to renew themselves.

Which is pretty much what they've been doing all along.

They've had their chance, now they just go away and die.

[Moonbox]

August I wouldn't take too much stock in the polls. Some of the pollsters themselves have been saying the data they're using is lousy, the samples poor and the methodology bad. The Liberal Democrats were polling as a strong second before the last UK election but ended up a distant third when the ballots were cast.

Less than 15% of people respond to the telephone survey. Of the people who do respond, the pollsters are saying it's usually the uneducated, the older and the people with too much time on their hands.

Add to that the fact that the left has typically absymal turnout rates and I wouldn't be surprised if poor Jack ends up in third place again.

At any rate, if Jack does form the official opposition (I think PM is out of the question), he'd find he has no friends in the House and no chance of forming a government should the Cons fail to win confidence. The Conservatives are so ideologically opposed to them that the NDP'd get little cooperation there and the Bloc and the Liberals have the most to lose by supporting them and giving them legitimacy. An NDP official opposition would lead either to another election or another 2-3 years of Conservative minority.

[maldon_road]

This presupposes that the NDP will get 50 or so seats in Quebec - preposterous. The Laurier Institute is only estimating 15 identified seats and even that means beating some well established Bloc MPs.

[nittanylionstorm07]

August I wouldn't take too much stock in the polls. Some of the pollsters themselves have been saying the data they're using is lousy, the samples poor and the methodology bad. The Liberal Democrats were polling as a strong second before the last UK election but ended up a distant third when the ballots were cast.

Keep in mind the terrible last week that Clegg had of the UK campaign. It's no surprise that he finished third after that lousy performance. We'll have to see if Layton will be able carry the momentum through this last week up until May 2 unlike Clegg... so far, Layton is doing a pretty good job.

Less than 15% of people respond to the telephone survey. Of the people who do respond, the pollsters are saying it's usually the uneducated, the older and the people with too much time on their hands.

The polling companies know and understand this. That's why results typically aren't far off from the polling percentages. Look at 2008, they weren't WAY OFF like you seem to imply they are going to be.

Add to that the fact that the left has typically absymal turnout rates and I wouldn't be surprised if poor Jack ends up in third place again.

It's the youth, not the left, who have dismal turnout rates. Usually this is taken into account considering that most pollsters aren't polling loads of youth.

At any rate, if Jack does form the official opposition (I think PM is out of the question), he'd find he has no friends in the House and no chance of forming a government should the Cons fail to win confidence. The Conservatives are so ideologically opposed to them that the NDP'd get little cooperation there and the Bloc and the Liberals have the most to lose by supporting them and giving them legitimacy. An NDP official opposition would lead either to another election or another 2-3 years of Conservative minority.

The Liberals are in a lose/lose situation. If they support the NDP, they look to be in a permanent third place position. If they support the Tories, then the entire point of the campign of "Vote for us to prevent Harper from getting a majority" will be thrown out the window, and they'll likely lose all of their remaining left-of-centre ridings in Ontario to the NDP.

[August1991]

This presupposes that the NDP will get 50 or so seats in Quebec - preposterous. The Laurier Institute is only estimating 15 identified seats and even that means beating some well established Bloc MPs.

If you had asked me even a week ago, I would have thought the same.

But having read through comments elsewhere and talked to a few people, the Bloc is in serious trouble. This isn't a polling anomaly. I agree that the NDP support in Quebec is unstable, and there is no organization on the ground.

Elsewhere in Canada, the thought of an NDP government might force a pullback. That won't happen in Quebec because the NDP is such an unknown quantity.

The Liberals are in a lose/lose situation. If they support the NDP, they look to be in a permanent third place position. If they support the Tories, then the entire point of the campign of "Vote for us to prevent Harper from getting a majority" will be thrown out the window, and they'll likely lose all of their remaining left-of-centre ridings in Ontario to the NDP.

That's my point too. The Liberals will be in a very difficult position. If Harper proposes a "reasonable" budget, then Liberals will likely support it rather than go through the process of defeating the Tories and subsequently supporting a Layton government. Another election in a few months is out of the question.

Nittany, I agree that the Liberals will be between a rock and ahrd place.

[wyly]

This presupposes that the NDP will get 50 or so seats in Quebec - preposterous. The Laurier Institute is only estimating 15 identified seats and even that means beating some well established Bloc MPs.

ya just as preposterous as Roy Romanow losing to a 20 yr old gas station attendent

[August1991]

August I wouldn't take too much stock in the polls. Some of the pollsters themselves have been saying the data they're using is lousy, the samples poor and the methodology bad.

Agreed that it will take another poll this week to confirm the NDP at 38% in Quebec but the Ekos poll is is not an absolute rogue.

At any rate, if Jack does form the official opposition (I think PM is out of the question)...

But Moonbox, once you admit that Layton can be Official Opposition, then you are admitting that he'll be possibly PM.

After May 2nd, the Liberals in third place become Kingmaker. Who are they going to choose (and avoiding the choice is not an option)? Harper or Layton?

I happen to think that they'll stick with Harper.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Agreed that it will take another poll this week to confirm the NDP at 38% in Quebec but the Ekos poll is is not an absolute rogue.

But Moonbox, once you admit that Layton can be Official Opposition, then you are admitting that he'll be possibly PM.

After May 2nd, the Liberals in third place become Kingmaker. Who are they going to choose (and avoiding the choice is not an option)? Harper or Layton?

I happen to think that they'll stick with Harper.

I just had a thought.

What about a complete destruction/split in the Liberals with left leaning Liberals supporting the NDP and right supporting the Tories?

That's not a complete impossibility since the Libs have no good leader that could round the troops together to support one or the other.

[PIK]

If this happens we are doomed , and to hear pepole saying how good this is going to be, well get ready for prices on everything to go up, jobs will leave this country fast. This is nothing to laugh about ,the future of the whole country is at stake.

[cybercoma]

If this happens we are doomed , and to hear pepole saying how good this is going to be, well get ready for prices on everything to go up, jobs will leave this country fast. This is nothing to laugh about ,the future of the whole country is at stake.

Get ready, as though the cost of gas and food haven't already gone up. People around the country just got a letter from RBC indicating an increase in their service fees (of 100% in some cases). Rogers just raised their prices as well. I don't know what rock you've been living under, but the NDP hasn't been responsible for price increases and Canadian families sure as hell are not benfiting.

[fellowtraveller]

Of course Layton will attempt to form a govt if he finishes second, he has never been shy about blowing anybody to gain influence in Ottawa.

And of course the Bloc would be right at his side, there is no chance they'd miss an opportunity to control the govt of Canada, it would enhance their standing in Quebec immeasurably.

So the key is Ignatieff, who would know that join The Cooperative or not he wouldn't be PM and wouldn't be Liberal leader for long. He is a proud and ambitious guy.... and I think he would take a few Cabinet seats and wait for Jack to implode. In the meantime, Quebec will laugh all the way to the bank and another seaparation referendum. And the rest of us wil pay, pay, pay.

[mikedavid00]

An NDP official opposition would lead either to another election or another 2-3 years of Conservative minority.

Also lets not lose sight of the fact that the house of commons would become an animal house with 100 NDP members.

I don't know if you've been watching CPAC, but some of those NDP candidates.. yikes. 25 year old pot head looking types that have never worn a suit.

100 seats of NDP.. would be the most scandalist, weirdest, most corrupt session of Parliament in history. The speaker will have to remind them before the session begins that there's no smoking allowed in the house of commons.

[mikedavid00]

And of course the Bloc would be right at his side

Gill Ducepts father actually started the NDP. This is why there is a coziness between the Bloc and NDP.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Also lets not lose sight of the fact that the house of commons would become an animal house with 100 NDP members.

I don't know if you've been watching CPAC, but some of those NDP candidates.. yikes. 25 year old pot head looking types that have never worn a suit.

100 seats of NDP.. would be the most scandalist, weirdest, most corrupt session of Parliament in history. The speaker will have to remind them before the session begins that there's no smoking allowed in the house of commons.

Yeah, because the Tories have such wonderful members. Remind me again how many were caught in various scandals?

[mikedavid00]

If this happens we are doomed , and to hear pepole saying how good this is going to be, well get ready for prices on everything to go up, jobs will leave this country fast. This is nothing to laugh about ,the future of the whole country is at stake.

I totally agree. Layton truly does believe that money grows on trees. He just doesn't 'get it'. He'll tax corporations, they'll leave, and then people like my wife will be out of work.

Our household will have to cut spending meaning we won't spend into the economy. Now those small businesses will suffer.

My wife will not be able to get another job easy because now she's competing with 100 different people that have also been laid off.

With all the corporations leaving, and small businesses going out of business, suprise suprise, the gov't is collecting.. LESS TAXES!

Laton and the Marxists just 'don't get it'. They never in a million years will understand the above scenario. You can write a childrens book with pictures and speak very slowly and they just don't 'get it' and never will. People say Harper is going to ruin the country and all that bunk, but the above example is how you REALLY ruin a country - raise taxes, raise corporate taxes.

[maldon_road]

I don't know if you've been watching CPAC, but some of those NDP candidates.. yikes. 25 year old pot head looking types that have never worn a suit.

I know what you mean. I live in a riding (no fear of the NDP winning) where the Dips put in throw-away candidates, usually a snotty-nosed kid who wants to put in a $5/liter tax on gas and calls Israel an "apartheid" state.

[fellowtraveller]

Gill Ducepts father actually started the NDP. This is why there is a coziness between the Bloc and NDP.

Maybe once upon a time, but not now.

Now they are cozy for one minor reason, and one major reason.

The minor one is that both are dominated by labour groups and share far left sensibilities.

The major one is that Jack Layton will do absolutely anything that Duceppe wants in return for his support of an Opposition Cooperative- and it doesn't matter much if Layton or Ignatieff is PM. The only sure thing is that Gilles Duceppe knows it and will milk Canada relentlessly- with Laytons blessing and encouragement. Everybody knows their roles, all that Quebec needs to do is name their price.

[cybercoma]

I totally agree. Layton truly does believe that money grows on trees. He just doesn't 'get it'. He'll tax corporations, they'll leave, and then people like my wife will be out of work.

Our household will have to cut spending meaning we won't spend into the economy. Now those small businesses will suffer.

My wife will not be able to get another job easy because now she's competing with 100 different people that have also been laid off.

With all the corporations leaving, and small businesses going out of business, suprise suprise, the gov't is collecting.. LESS TAXES!

Laton and the Marxists just 'don't get it'. They never in a million years will understand the above scenario. You can write a childrens book with pictures and speak very slowly and they just don't 'get it' and never will. People say Harper is going to ruin the country and all that bunk, but the above example is how you REALLY ruin a country - raise taxes, raise corporate taxes.

When will you understand that if businesses want to be a part of our society they can contribute to it in more ways than having a place for people to sell their labour. If they want an educated, healthy and secure labour force, they will pay into the systems that ensure that.

In any case, we're talking about keeping the corporate taxes below the US level. And, Layton has only proposed raising them back up to the 2006 levels. This is hardly edgy and disastrous Commie talk.

The louder you whine, the more unreasonable the right seems. Especially considering the massive profits banks, telecommunications and oil companies are raking in.

Edited April 26, 2011 by cybercoma

[nittanylionstorm07]

When will you understand that if businesses want to be a part of our society they can contribute to it in more ways than having a place for people to sell their labour. If they want an educated, healthy and secure labour force, they will pay into the systems that ensure that.

In any case, we're talking about keeping the corporate taxes below the US level. And, Layton has only proposed raising them back up to the 2006 levels. This is hardly edgy and disastrous Commie talk.

The louder you whine, the more unreasonable the right seems. Especially considering the massive profits banks, telecommunications and oil companies are raking in.

Don't you know? 16%=free capitalistic utopic society. 19%=communist socialist liberal green genocidal dictatorship.

[mikedavid00]

If they want an educated, healthy and secure labour force, they will pay into the systems that ensure that.

This is the sort of Progressive babble that I do not subscribe to. Go study the history of the left wing revolutionaries. That very sentence you just said routinely came out of the mouth of the Nazi party.

When you get older, work in the private sector, and pay taxes, you'll understand the realities of certain things. There should be NO taxes on any business. Lets just put it that way.

[nittanylionstorm07]

This is the sort of Progressive babble that I do not subscribe to. Go study the history of the left wing revolutionaries. That very sentence you just said routinely came out of the mouth of the Nazi party.

When you get older, work in the private sector, and pay taxes, you'll understand the realities of certain things. There should be NO taxes on any business. Lets just put it that way.

A conservative attempting to argue about education while simultaneously calling the Nazis left wing revolutionaries.

Sigh. This is why conservatives should never touch education.

[fellowtraveller]

In any case, we're talking about keeping the corporate taxes below the US level. And, Layton has only proposed raising them back up to the 2006 levels. This is hardly edgy and disastrous Commie talk.

No, it is better characterized as stupid talk by Jack.

He is betting and basing his grandiose program spending schemes on the supposed billions pouring into a treasury from renewed and increased business taxes. It's all bullshit. he knows it, everybody knows it. If corporations are taxed heavily, they'll just pass it to consumers as their own tax. If they don't , they will simply move offshore to more profitable venues as you may have noticed happening globally in recent years........

OIf course, we can always count on Jacks clever stewardship of our commodity and energy industries to replace those jobs and billions in taxes that will be lost.... oh wait a minute, maybe not. Oh, or maybe Jack will subsidize the creation of vast new green technologies in Canada, who can provide their products and services to Canadian industry except wait a sec those industries all moved to Indonesia abruptly in 2012.....

[cybercoma]

This is the sort of Progressive babble that I do not subscribe to. Go study the history of the left wing revolutionaries. That very sentence you just said routinely came out of the mouth of the Nazi party.

When you get older, work in the private sector, and pay taxes, you'll understand the realities of certain things. There should be NO taxes on any business. Lets just put it that way.

Don't condescend to me. I don't know where you get off thinking that everyone who supports the NDP is some young revolutionary or "free-loading bum from academia", but the NDP sure as hell isn't pulling numbers like it is with those people alone.

As for studying the history of social policy, maybe you should take your own advice because where I'm sitting you look like you slept your way through that class, if you even got an education. Social security was first established in the West by Otto von Bismarck as a way of creating security for industry. The Fordist compromise was a way of creating security for industry. Nearly, all of the gains in social welfare through the middle of the 20th century in North America, if not the entire West, was to create a stable and secure workforce for the capitalist regime. Although you're blissfully unaware because you're a partisan hack, our entire social system is based on making society more conducive to business. Healthcare? Sick workers don't work very well. Workers' Comp? Employees can no longer sue and companies can spread out their risks. Education? It was designed to make an obedient and sufficiently intelligent workforce.

[cybercoma]

If corporations are taxed heavily, they'll just pass it to consumers as their own tax. If they don't , they will simply move offshore to more profitable venues as you may have noticed happening globally in recent years........

Let me see if I understand this part of your post correctly.

Raise taxes, corporations move to offshore more porfitable vanues.

Lower taxes, corporations move to offshore more pofitable venues.

Great.