Federal Elections 2011: Seat Predictions

[Harry]

Jack'as talking about being prime minister at all his campaign rallies now.

NDP rocks election race, markets uncertain Markets take closer look at idea of coalition government

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2011/04/27/ndp-rocks-election-race-markets-uncertain

[Posc Student]

There are still a number of moderate conservatives within the Conservative caucus. I think under the leadership of a Progressive Conservative the party would seem much different, there were always right-wing nut jobs in PC caucuses. The Conservative have managed to lure some Liberals to their party over the last few years.

I think we need a majority so we see exactly what the Conservative party is going to be.

[Harry]

The way the Jack has climbed abord his orange rocketship Harper is going to be lucky to eek out a minority. Even that is in doubt now.

[wyly]

There are still a number of moderate conservatives within the Conservative caucus. I think under the leadership of a Progressive Conservative the party would seem much different, there were always right-wing nut jobs in PC caucuses. The Conservative have managed to lure some Liberals to their party over the last few years.

I think we need a majority so we see exactly what the Conservative party is going to be.

let a fringe minority have the majority of seats? no thanks...

[ToadBrother]

The way the Jack has climbed abord his orange rocketship Harper is going to be lucky to eek out a minority. Even that is in doubt now.

The NDP would have to do a helluva lot of growth in the next five days to overtake the Tories. I've been wrong a lot in this election, but I still think that's an outside possibility. Maybe it would happen if the NDP manages to get a deal with the Liberals and defeat the Tories over the Throne Speech, but that's a different situation.

Edited April 27, 2011 by ToadBrother

[wyly]

The way the Jack has climbed abord his orange rocketship Harper is going to be lucky to eek out a minority. Even that is in doubt now.

polls lag so todays polls are no longer accurate...by May 2 it's possible to have a NDP minority but making predictions like that with the screwie FPTP electoral system is a real leap of faith...

[Harry]

I realize this is now dated but from today's Forum Poll

Layton is definitely closing in on Harper

Cons - 137 seats, Down 6 seats

NDP - 108 seats, Up 71 seats

Libs - 60 seats, Down 17 seats

Bloc - 3 seats, Down 46 seats

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[Shady]

I realize this is now dated but from today's Forum Poll

Layton is definitely closing in on Harper

Cons - 137 seats, Down 6 seats

NDP - 108 seats, Up 71 seats

Libs - 60 seats, Down 17 seats

Bloc - 3 seats, Down 46 seats

LOL! If you think the NDP are going to pick up 71 seats, I have swamp land in Florida to sell you!

[cybercoma]

The thing is the NDP are still surging, and we still have 5 days left

NDP hits new heights, rocks election race

The upstart left-leaning New Democrats hit new heights in opinion polls Wednesday, further shaking up Canada's election race and making the outcome almost impossible to predict.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCATRE73Q44720110427

Asked why voters did not appear to be heeding this request for a majority, [stephen Harper] told reporters in Waterloo, Ontario: "I do not accept the premise of your question."

I love it!

[cybercoma]

Here's a real fantasy scenario:

NDP minority government.

Liberals and BQ abstain from voting.

CPC votes them down.

GG asks Harper to form government, but he cannot get anyone else on board with him because he refuses to budge on his agenda.

Then what?

[nittanylionstorm07]

Here's a real fantasy scenario:

NDP minority government.

Liberals and BQ abstain from voting.

CPC votes them down.

GG asks Harper to form government, but he cannot get anyone else on board with him because he refuses to budge on his agenda.

Then what?

If the Liberals and BQ abstain from voting, how would the CPC vote them down considering they would have less seats?

Oh, and then the GG would be required to ask the Liberals to attempt to form a government. They would fail, and then by rule the GG would have to ask the Bloc, who would also fail, then the Green, who would fail. Then another election.

[CANADIEN]

Here we go.

PC: Gains in Ontario (1, 2 ridings in Toronto?) and Newfoundland-and-Labrador will upset loses in Quebec. 152

LIB: Believe it or not, exact same number. Strategic voting in other parts of the country will offset losses in Ontario, Quebec and Newfoundland-and-Labrador

BQ: One more seat, at 50, even they will lose some votes

NDP: Strategic voting will cause them to lose seats, down to 29. 4 seats in Quebec

André Arthur will manage to keep his Portneuf seat (or it will go BQ)

How things change in nine days...

CONS: 144

NDP: 64

Lib: 56

BQ: 39

Ind: 1

[Harry]

Before the orange crush occured, I thought the NDP might have won 70 seats. But things are vastly different now.

There isnt one seat projector that is up-to-date see http://www.punditsguide.com

NDP 126 seats

Cons 125 seats

Libs 39 seats

Bloc 17 seats

Ind 1 seat

Edited April 30, 2011 by Harry

[TTM]

Cons: 141

NDP: 81

Lib: 59

BQ: 24

Green: 2

Ind: 1

[RNG]

Cons: 141

NDP: 81

Lib: 59

BQ: 24

Green: 2

Ind: 1

Other than May, what other Green is in the running?

[TTM]

Other than May, what other Green is in the running?

The anti-Hedy Fry vote has allegedly coalesced around Adriane Carr in Vancouver Centre. It's a long shot, but what fun is making predictions if you don't stick your neck out every now and then.