Federal Elections 2011: Seat Predictions

[Posc Student]

At the moment the CPC are set to not win any seats in NL and the most the NDP could win is 2.

Edited April 22, 2011 by Posc Student

[Evening Star]

If this is anything close to the reality on Mar 2, we could quite possibly see Jack Layton as PM after the Throne Speech or budget. Seems a little bold though...

By province/territory:

NL: CPC: 2 LPC: 2 NDP: 3

NS: CPC: 3 LPC: 2 NDP: 6

PE: CPC: 1 LPC: 2 NDP: 1

NB: CPC: 4 LPC: 2 NDP: 4

QC: CPC: 4 LPC: 1 NDP: 41 BQ: 29

ON: CPC: 42 LPC: 43 NDP: 21

MB: CPC: 5 LPC: 0 NDP: 9

SK: CPC: 12 LPC: 0 NDP: 2

AB: CPC: 26 LPC: 0 NDP: 2

BC: CPC: 19 LPC: 2 NDP: 15

YK: CPC: 0 LPC: 1 NDP: 0

NT: CPC: 0 LPC: 0 NDP: 1

NU: CPC: 0 LPC: 1 NDP: 0

TOTAL: CPC: 118 LPC: 56 NDP: 105 BQ: 29

This was done using current trends in polling regionally (taken out to election day AND considering the soft/hard supporters for each party.) When you look at it like this, it gets quite interesting.

[Posc Student]

By province/territory:

NL: CPC: 2 LPC: 2 NDP: 3

NS: CPC: 3 LPC: 2 NDP: 6

PE: CPC: 1 LPC: 2 NDP: 1

NB: CPC: 4 LPC: 2 NDP: 4

QC: CPC: 4 LPC: 1 NDP: 41 BQ: 29

ON: CPC: 42 LPC: 43 NDP: 21

MB: CPC: 5 LPC: 0 NDP: 9

SK: CPC: 12 LPC: 0 NDP: 2

AB: CPC: 26 LPC: 0 NDP: 2

BC: CPC: 19 LPC: 2 NDP: 15

YK: CPC: 0 LPC: 1 NDP: 0

NT: CPC: 0 LPC: 0 NDP: 1

NU: CPC: 0 LPC: 1 NDP: 0

TOTAL: CPC: 118 LPC: 56 NDP: 105 BQ: 29

This was done using current trends in polling regionally (taken out to election day AND considering the soft/hard supporters for each party.) When you look at it like this, it gets quite interesting.

So where exactly did it come from and who did it because there are many flaws.

[M.Dancer]

Conservatives 158

Liberals 67

Bloc 36

NDP 47

[Guest Derek L]

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/decision-canada/Tories+headed+huge+majority+vaults+into+second+place/4659432/story.html

Per Ipsos Reid today:

Tories: 201

Grits: 58

NDP: 48

Bloc: 4

Likely a blip, and like the EKOS poll the other day, and a poll I saw on CTV yesturday (Nanos?) it does confirm two things:

Tory support is trending up

The NDP is also trending up, IMO, more so at the expense of the Bloc & LPC

308 is saying today after putting all these results in their blender:

CPC: 150

LPC: 76

NDP: 36

Bloc: 45

Which I, a supporter of the Tories, do find to be more "down to earth"....and back where we started-ish after the Writ was dropped....

[WWWTT]

Actually nittanylion is somewhat correct.

We still have like 9-10 days left before the polls open and the current polls indicate a tsunamia for the NDP.

Actually there is a possibility of a NDP minority.

I draw this conclusion from the fact that the growing support is getting stronger everyday.

It is possible that the NDP draw another 6-7% support in the last couple of days.And by this time next week that could result in numbers at par or a little above or below the conservatives.

I believe that this explains why Harper is retreating and playing to his base again as we seen in his interview with Mansbridge.

He is fearfull of becoming the next NDP tsunamia victim(Ignatieff)

WWWTT

[punked]

So where exactly did it come from and who did it because there are many flaws.

It seems to me Nitty is extrapolating the pattern. Much in the NS and Ontario once the NDP starts a trend like this everyone low balls their number. Heck in NS even on election night where the NDP grabbed a majority the forecasters were saying "the NDP ran a good campaign we will see if they gain the 3 seats they need to form government and if the Liberals will back it up." They blew those projections out of the water.

Now those numbers are really very best case but they are not impossible. Heck maybe you will even switch your vote.

[nittanylionstorm07]

At the moment the CPC are set to not win any seats in NL and the most the NDP could win is 2.

This is based on regional polls, not riding polls, that have come out over the past week then extrapolating the pattern. There could be some error in NL, yes, but that error could be canceled out in ON or BC.

[Posc Student]

There's still a good chance that the NDP numbers could collapse, they got into the 20's in polls during the last election too. With their numbers trending up there will be more attacks at Jack Layton and people will be putting more focus on the NDP and where they stand on issues.

Though he tries to deny it Layton is like all politicians and has said a lot of wishy washy things and has flipped floped on issues, like the Clarity Act. If more focus is put on some of his stances he could lose, or gain. There have been candidates who have switched back and forth from the Bloc and NDP, he wants to open the constitution and he's talking about this stuff with Bill 101, which I think expands it.

[Posc Student]

This is based on regional polls, not riding polls, that have come out over the past week then extrapolating the pattern. There could be some error in NL, yes, but that error could be canceled out in ON or BC.

Well riding polls in NL have shown the CPC is in trouble and the NDP support is set to go down in the province though they could gain a seat.

[Guest Derek L]

There's still a good chance that the NDP numbers could collapse, they got into the 20's in polls during the last election too. With their numbers trending up there will be more attacks at Jack Layton and people will be putting more focus on the NDP and where they stand on issues.

Though he tries to deny it Layton is like all politicians and has said a lot of wishy washy things and has flipped floped on issues, like the Clarity Act. If more focus is put on some of his stances he could lose, or gain. There have been candidates who have switched back and forth from the Bloc and NDP, he wants to open the constitution and he's talking about this stuff with Bill 101, which I think expands it.

I agree 100%. Though I tend to think Jack is a likeable fellow, I think the NDP's stance on the Clarity Act will hurt him outside of Quebec. Perhaps not enough for him to lose seats that he already has, but perhaps enough to cost him seats in close ridings....just waiting for the Tory and Liberal attack adds....

[nittanylionstorm07]

There's still a good chance that the NDP numbers could collapse, they got into the 20's in polls during the last election too. With their numbers trending up there will be more attacks at Jack Layton and people will be putting more focus on the NDP and where they stand on issues.

Though he tries to deny it Layton is like all politicians and has said a lot of wishy washy things and has flipped floped on issues, like the Clarity Act. If more focus is put on some of his stances he could lose, or gain. There have been candidates who have switched back and forth from the Bloc and NDP, he wants to open the constitution and he's talking about this stuff with Bill 101, which I think expands it.

The trend this year is obviously different to everyone but those who are hard set biased against the NDP.

[punked]

There's still a good chance that the NDP numbers could collapse, they got into the 20's in polls during the last election too. With their numbers trending up there will be more attacks at Jack Layton and people will be putting more focus on the NDP and where they stand on issues.

Though he tries to deny it Layton is like all politicians and has said a lot of wishy washy things and has flipped floped on issues, like the Clarity Act. If more focus is put on some of his stances he could lose, or gain. There have been candidates who have switched back and forth from the Bloc and NDP, he wants to open the constitution and he's talking about this stuff with Bill 101, which I think expands it.

Again look at the NS 2009 campaign. This is the campaign the NDP is running, focus on the leader, promises which are Canada (province) wide not ridding specific, local messaging by ridings and province that aren't coming from national figures. Just like in 2009 attacking the leader of a "fringe" party only makes them look legitimate that is the problem with doing it. Heck in the US when the other guys start attack Perot he actually went higher in the polls. There isn't enough time left for those attacks to work, they need at least a mouth to change the momentum that way not 10 days where 4 of them are during a weekend no one pay attention.

[punked]

I agree 100%. Though I tend to think Jack is a likeable fellow, I think the NDP's stance on the Clarity Act will hurt him outside of Quebec. Perhaps not enough for him to lose seats that he already has, but perhaps enough to cost him seats in close ridings....just waiting for the Tory and Liberal attack adds....

No one outside Quebec cares about the Clarity Act. When it is Framed Bloc or NDP people in English Canada care more about getting rid of the Bloc then they do about legal paper work. If the Liberals plan to spend the rest of their campaign speaking legal mobo jumbo to Jack's "Lets come together as a country and talk about our problems and find a solution that works for all of us" they are in bigger trouble then I think.

[nittanylionstorm07]

No one outside Quebec cares about the Clarity Act. When it is Framed Bloc or NDP people in English Canada care more about getting rid of the Bloc then they do about legal paper work. If the Liberals plan to spend the rest of their campaign speaking legal mobo jumbo to Jack's "Lets come together as a country and talk about our problems and find a solution that works for all of us" they are in bigger trouble then I think.

Exactly. I've seen many hardcore Tory supporters say they'd vote for the NDP if that assured the Bloc would go away.

[blueblood]

Again look at the NS 2009 campaign. This is the campaign the NDP is running, focus on the leader, promises which are Canada (province) wide not ridding specific, local messaging by ridings and province that aren't coming from national figures. Just like in 2009 attacking the leader of a "fringe" party only makes them look legitimate that is the problem with doing it. Heck in the US when the other guys start attack Perot he actually went higher in the polls. There isn't enough time left for those attacks to work, they need at least a mouth to change the momentum that way not 10 days where 4 of them are during a weekend no one pay attention.

Your right, the tories shouldn't run attack ads now, too late in the game for that. The tories should run ads about all their accomplishments and how the business sector plus economists like the tory plan. And running that cheesy ad with the jumbo liner with 2 jet fighters as much as possible during prime time won't hurt either.

Time for an ad (positive) blitz!!

[Posc Student]

The trend this year is obviously different to everyone but those who are hard set biased against the NDP.

I'm not hard set biased against the NDP, I don't support their policies but I'm not fussy on any of the parties.

The thing is though this has been a quick surge in support for the NDP. While they had been building support in Quebec they were still going from low teens to high teens and back and now they're in the 30's. Their support had collapsed in BC and now they're suddenly back in the game, same goes for Saskatoba.

This has been a surge so far and not a steady slow increase in support. It could go down as quick as it went up.

[punked]

Your right, the tories shouldn't run attack ads now, too late in the game for that. The tories should run ads about all their accomplishments and how the business sector plus economists like the tory plan. And running that cheesy ad with the jumbo liner with 2 jet fighters as much as possible during prime time won't hurt either.

Time for an ad (positive) blitz!!

Yep if you look at how a campaign should be run you want in the last week of the campaign for it to be all about you. If Tories are running these types of ads it means they have reached a point where they don't think they can win anymore votes and are trying to stop a bled to the NDP. It is a mistake but instead their war room somewhere they weighed the risks and they think if their vote holds they win so they are trying to hold their vote.

[punked]

This has been a surge so far and not a steady slow increase in support. It could go down as quick as it went up.

The NDP doesn't as a rule build support slowly. They win a tidal waves of support "Orange Crush" if you will. Look at NS, Ontario, Manitoba, BC and their first win in Sask. They aren't a traditional party they don't and can't win in a traditional way and putting them in a box and comparing them to the Liberals or Conservatives is where you are dead wrong. This is a traditional NDP out of no where campaign run by a popular leader speaking to voters who have come to want something different. This is where your logic falls off the map.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/westview/an-orange-crush-in-nova-scotia-47760867.html

[blueblood]

Yep if you look at how a campaign should be run you want in the last week of the campaign for it to be all about you. If Tories are running these types of ads it means they have reached a point where they don't think they can win anymore votes and are trying to stop a bled to the NDP. It is a mistake but instead their war room somewhere they weighed the risks and they think if their vote holds they win so they are trying to hold their vote.

Your talking about attack ads right?

I seen the liberal's new gem, it rivals the soldiers in our street with guns.

All the tories need to do is yak about their accomplishments and keep the positive message (the famous cheesy jumbo jet w/ jet fighters).

If the tories don't do anything that bleeds votes as well, they still need to campaign. Attack ads with a week to go are desperate.

[punked]

Your talking about attack ads right?

I seen the liberal's new gem, it rivals the soldiers in our street with guns.

All the tories need to do is yak about their accomplishments and keep the positive message (the famous cheesy jumbo jet w/ jet fighters).

If the tories don't do anything that bleeds votes as well, they still need to campaign. Attack ads with a week to go are desperate.

They are no only desperate they bump the other guy up in the short run. In the long run they work say over 3 weeks people hear them and it plants a seed. They learn more and have to make a choice. Over one week people here them and think "This Layton guy must be really scaring that other guy I don't like. I'll vote Layton." Or Harper if we are talking 2006 campaign or even Chretien if we are talking about 1993 (remember the Cons came out late late with a he talks funny ad). History says don't do unless you have to.

[Posc Student]

The NDP doesn't as a rule build support slowly. They win a tidal waves of support "Orange Crush" if you will. Look at NS, Ontario, Manitoba, BC and their first win in Sask. They aren't a traditional party they don't and can't win in a traditional way and putting them in a box and comparing them to the Liberals or Conservatives is where you are dead wrong. This is a traditional NDP out of no where campaign run by a popular leader speaking to voters who have come to want something different. This is where your logic falls off the map.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/westview/an-orange-crush-in-nova-scotia-47760867.html

The NDP in Nova Scotia had been doing well for a number of years, if you look at the opinion polling they had been in first place after the 2006 election till the 2009 election. From what I can tell they had a breakthrough in 1998 but it took 11 years till they formed government.

We are looking at a surge in a week not a numbers of months.

Edited April 22, 2011 by Posc Student

[punked]

The NDP in Nova Scotia had been doing well for a number of years, if you look at the opinion polling they had been in first place after the 2006 election till the 2009 election. From what I can tell they had a breakthrough in 1998 but it took 11 years till they formed government.

However during the whole campaign people kept saying "The NS is running good but they will fall back like they always do. They have a core in Halifax and Halifax wont decide the province. They will be lucky to form government. The numbers started breaking in the last two weeks of the campaign and they were winning all over the place. It was a tidal wave out of no where just as in 1998 in NS."

It wasn't a steady climb they woke up in 1998 and gave them large numbers that held until 2008 when again they crashed through to even bigger numbers. In Ontario and Sask it was from 0-30 in one shot in NS it was 0-20 then 20-40 in two different elections. That is how the NDP wins. They aren't bled votes like Liberals or Cons they seize them.

Edited April 22, 2011 by punked

[Guest Derek L]

No one outside Quebec cares about the Clarity Act. When it is Framed Bloc or NDP people in English Canada care more about getting rid of the Bloc then they do about legal paper work. If the Liberals plan to spend the rest of their campaign speaking legal mobo jumbo to Jack's "Lets come together as a country and talk about our problems and find a solution that works for all of us" they are in bigger trouble then I think.

WRT the Clarity Act, I guess we'll have to wait and see what the Libs/Tories do, if they are able to frame it "Bloc & NDPish" in the ROC, and how the voters will react on the 2nd.

As I've said, I bleed 100% Tory Blue, and if the Tories are unable to win a seat, be it QC or ROC, I'd prefer the NDP to pick it up as opposed to the Libs and Bloc. I might think their policies and ideas are retro-Castro, but I do respect them, since I feel they do have ,what they feel as, Canadians best intrests at heart.

Edited April 22, 2011 by Derek L

[punked]

Now we can all do our own calculations.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html