Federal Elections 2011: Seat Predictions

[Smallc]

Wow...just wow. An NDP government is becoming a very real prospect. Talk about exciting.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Smallc

[punked]

Wow...just wow. An NDP government is becoming a very real prospect. Talk about exciting.

Glad you voted NDP this time this could be historic.

[Tilter]

Wow...just wow. An NDP government is becoming a very real prospect. Talk about exciting.

You could get what you wish for-------- and like the NDP government as much as Ontarians do even now after all these years.

BUT

It won't happen -- Ontarians see the color of vomit every time someone says NDP-----ooops I gotta get to the bathr

[Smallc]

You could get what you wish for-------- and like the NDP government as much as Ontarians do even now after all these years.

Except that I have an NDP government...and it's just fine with me.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Except that I have an NDP government...and it's just fine with me.

But...but... Bob Rae!

[ToadBrother]

You could get what you wish for-------- and like the NDP government as much as Ontarians do even now after all these years.

BUT

It won't happen -- Ontarians see the color of vomit every time someone says NDP-----ooops I gotta get to the bathr

If the Tories are defeated over the Throne Speech and the NDP are the Official Opposition, it won't matter at all what the folks in Ontario think.

[Posc Student]

The NDP getting in the 90 plus seat range is all based on them getting upwards to 50 seats in Quebec, do people think that could actually happen?

[Harry]

The thing is the NDP are still surging, and we still have 5 days left

NDP hits new heights, rocks election race

The upstart left-leaning New Democrats hit new heights in opinion polls Wednesday, further shaking up Canada's election race and making the outcome almost impossible to predict.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCATRE73Q44720110427

[Posc Student]

The party's poll numbers may be surging but does it mean they can win seats, specifically in Quebec?

[August1991]

The NDP getting in the 90 plus seat range is all based on them getting upwards to 50 seats in Quebec, do people think that could actually happen?

Maybe not 50 seats but they will possibly get 40 or so.

The NDP is polling around 36%-38% in Quebec and the Bloc around 25%-30%. If you put these kinds of numbers into seat projection software for Quebec, the Bloc and the NDP will get around 30 or so. The NDP could go as high as 40 and the Bloc as low as 20.

The shift has occurred and I think we can date it to teh debate and Layton's appearance on TLMEP. I reckon that Quebecers are looking for an alternative to the same old federalist/sovereigntist quarrel and they have now latched on to Layton and the NDP. (In recent years, they have also tried the ADQ and Harper's Conservatives as alternatives.)

Admittedly, the Quebec support for the NDP is unstable but it will carry through in this election. In all likelihood, the NDP will at least be the Official Opposition, the Liberals will be in third place and the Bloc will be last. Moreover, the NDP caucus is going to be a zoo. Thomas Mulcair is not an easy person to get along with and yet he'll be charged with herding the cats.

Edited April 27, 2011 by August1991

[fellowtraveller]

I reckon that Quebecers are looking for an alternative to the same old federalist/sovereigntist quarrel and they have no latched on to Layton and the NDP. (Recently, they have also tried the ADQ and Harper's Conservatives.)

Baloney. Quebecois want what everybody wants: more milk from the federal tit. They have been pretty astute in getting representation that ensures that, as evidenced by the disproportionate amount of money they get from Ottawa. Note that the NDP have promised the moon to the city of Quebec, they'll pay for their new arena and much much more.

Layton went to Quebec and fed them the old familiar lies that Quebecois have deluded themselves with forever, that somehow the province is not gettin g a fair shake and contributes more than they get. In short, the NDP have torn a page from the Parti Quebecois and Bloc Quebecois playbook. It is great short term politics, albeit savagely misguided.

[fellowtraveller]

In all likelihood, the NDP will at least be the Official Opposition, the Liberals will be in third place and the Bloc will be last. Moreover, the NDP caucus is going to be a zoo. Thomas Mulcair is not an easy person to get along with and yet he'll be charged with herding the cats.

Whatever.

As a Canadian taxpayer, all I want to know is how much will Ignatieff or Layton have to pay Duceppe for his support?

[nittanylionstorm07]

The party's poll numbers may be surging but does it mean they can win seats, specifically in Quebec?

People like you need to realize that while a third party surge can split a vote, when the surge hits a critical point, it suddenly results in a massive amount of seats. That's where the NDP is at now. It's in first place in Quebec. It is no longer splitting votes.

[Posc Student]

I think a few people might be surprised when they get to the ballot box and Jack Layton's name is no where to be seen.

Eric at 308 has an article this morning talking about the NDP in Quebec and he doubts that it is possible for them to get a large number of seats there. The NDP have said they only have about 6 or 8 ridings where they are really well organized, and that will make a difference come election day. There are many people who may like the idea of voting for the NDP, or Jack Layton's party, but when you get in the voting booth and have a choice between an NDP candidate, who you may have never heard of and who could be a university student from another city, or an incumbent from another party I think that's when a number of people may decide against the NDP.

I think you'll see the party's strong candidates get elected but I have my doubts if the candidates they put in ridings just to say that had 308 candidates will get elected.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I think a few people might be surprised when they get to the ballot box and Jack Layton's name is no where to be seen.

Eric at 308 has an article this morning talking about the NDP in Quebec and he doubts that it is possible for them to get a large number of seats there. The NDP have said they only have about 6 or 8 ridings where they are really well organized, and that will make a difference come election day. There are many people who may like the idea of voting for the NDP, or Jack Layton's party, but when you get in the voting booth and have a choice between an NDP candidate, who you may have never heard of and who could be a university student from another city, or an incumbent from another party I think that's when a number of people may decide against the NDP.

I think you'll see the party's strong candidates get elected but I have my doubts if the candidates they put in ridings just to say that had 308 candidates will get elected.

Eric at 308 has been constantly poo-pooing this, and his model has already been shown to be way off when compared to actual riding polls in Quebec (I believe his NDP numbers were 10% off). That is terrible, and his model is aiming towards being way, way off on election night.

The ADQ were not well organized... the NDP in Ontario or Nova Scotia weren't as well organized either, but what happened?

[Posc Student]

Eric at 308 has been constantly poo-pooing this, and his model has already been shown to be way off when compared to actual riding polls in Quebec (I believe his NDP numbers were 10% off). That is terrible, and his model is aiming towards being way, way off on election night.

The ADQ were not well organized... the NDP in Ontario or Nova Scotia weren't as well organized either, but what happened?

All seat projectors are now screwed up becuase of what is happening in Quebec. The NDP may very well get 53 seats next week, I doubt it but it could happen.

[August1991]

As a Canadian taxpayer, all I want to know is how much will Ignatieff or Layton have to pay Duceppe for his support?

There's a distinct possibility that the Bloc won't have enough chits to make a difference in this game. It could well be that the NDP and Liberals alone will have over 155 seats. But as I say, I just don't see third-place Liberals propping up a minority PM Layton.

I think a few people might be surprised when they get to the ballot box and Jack Layton's name is no where to be seen.

Everyone in Quebec knows that a vote for the NPD is a vote for Jack Layton.

[ToadBrother]

Whatever.

As a Canadian taxpayer, all I want to know is how much will Ignatieff or Layton have to pay Duceppe for his support?

Well, if the Bloc comes in fourth, perhaps nothing. If there are enough votes to be found among the Federalist ranks, the Bloc will be rendered impotent.

[Posc Student]

There's a distinct possibility that the Bloc won't have enough chits to make a difference in this game. It could well be that the NDP and Liberals alone will have over 155 seats. But as I say, I just don't see third-place Liberals propping up a minority PM Layton.

Agreed. There are many Liberals who would rather prop up the Conservatives then the NDP, the Liberals may still be the official opposition after May 2, though.

[ToadBrother]

There's a distinct possibility that the Bloc won't have enough chits to make a difference in this game. It could well be that the NDP and Liberals alone will have over 155 seats. But as I say, I just don't see third-place Liberals propping up a minority PM Layton.

And what if a third-place Liberals were offered a seat at a coalition? Not saying it would happen, but strategically, if the NDP gets a hundred seats and the Liberals get 60 seats or thereabouts, a coalition would have a majority.

[Posc Student]

And what if a third-place Liberals were offered a seat at a coalition? Not saying it would happen, but strategically, if the NDP gets a hundred seats and the Liberals get 60 seats or thereabouts, a coalition would have a majority.

I doubt the "natural governing party" would want a few cabinet seats in an NDP government. You'd see Liberals crossing over to the Conservatives I think.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I doubt the "natural governing party" would want a few cabinet seats in an NDP government. You'd see Liberals crossing over to the Conservatives I think.

I would bet more likely on a split.

Right leaning ones to Tories, left leaning ones to NDP, centre ones will be split. They don't have a strong leader to take the entire caucus to one or the other.

[wyly]

I doubt the "natural governing party" would want a few cabinet seats in an NDP government. You'd see Liberals crossing over to the Conservatives I think.

if they were the conservatives of old maybe but they're not the old moderate progessive conservatives of joe clark, these are neo-cons...liberals sitting in the same caucus as nutters like rob anders? I can't see it...

[August1991]

Agreed. There are many Liberals who would rather prop up the Conservatives then the NDP, the Liberals may still be the official opposition after May 2, though.

Given current polls and how the seats in Quebec are going to divide, I just don't see the Liberals as official opposition after May 2nd.

Unless some unknown fact/event comes to light in the next five days, it's a fair bet that the NDP will be the official opposition with a sizeable caucus from Quebec. The Liberals are going to be in third place.

[wyly]

And what if a third-place Liberals were offered a seat at a coalition? Not saying it would happen, but strategically, if the NDP gets a hundred seats and the Liberals get 60 seats or thereabouts, a coalition would have a majority.

that would be difficult for Ignatieff to do after he swore off a coaliton, the ndp may not it anyway if they believe hey can eliminate the liberals in the next election...but if ti did happen the liberals do have some very capable people for cabinet posts, ignatieff being one...