Federal Elections 2011: Seat Predictions

[August1991]

Here's my current province by province seat predictions. If you try this at home kids, make sure your totals add up to 308. And don't cheat by editing your prediction later in the campaign.

BC - CPC: 27, LPC: 3, NDP: 6

Alta - CPC: 28

Sask - CPC: 13, LPC: 1

Man - CPC: 10, LPC: 1, NDP: 3

Ont - CPC: 58, LPC: 30, NDP: 18

Qc - CPC: 9 (1), LPC: 12, NDP: 1, BQ: 52

NB - CPC: 6, LPC: 3, NDP: 1

NS - CPC: 4, LPC: 5, NDP: 2

PEI - CPC: 2, LPC: 2

Nfld - CPC: 3, LPC: 3, NDP: 1

Terr - CPC: 1, LPC: 1, NDP: 1

Totals - CPC: 162, LPC: 61, NDP: 33, Bloc: 52

That's a (bare) Conservative majority. The wild card is Ontario.

Here's a fun site for discussion of local ridings: http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/index.php

[punked]

CPC: 153, LPC: 72, NDP: 34, Bloc: 49

[blueblood]

CPC 163

LPC. 62

NDP. 34

BLOC 49

It will be a squeaker. I don't think the electorate will want a minority and the gong show that goes with it

[Bryan]

Here's a fun site for discussion of local ridings: http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/index.php

That site is crazy. They're still calling St. Boniface too close to call? They called it TCTC in 2008 too, and Shelly got nearly as many votes as the LPC and NDP candidates combined!

[punked]

That site is crazy. They're still calling St. Boniface too close to call? They called it TCTC in 2008 too, and Shelly got nearly as many votes as the LPC and NDP candidates combined!

yah they are not great. I like to check out

www.threehundredeight.com

However I take issue with some of the methodology it is fun to look at and has a lot of info.

[ToadBrother]

CPC 163

LPC. 62

NDP. 34

BLOC 49

It will be a squeaker. I don't think the electorate will want a minority and the gong show that goes with it

The public, as a group, have only voted over 50% for any government about five or six times since Confederation. I think you need to rephrase.

[August1991]

That site is crazy. They're still calling St. Boniface too close to call? They called it TCTC in 2008 too, and Shelly got nearly as many votes as the LPC and NDP candidates combined!

I agree that the site is crazy. I like it because there is discussion for each riding. True, the discussions are not unlike threads here but if you know the riding/region, you can filter the posts and get a sense of the situation.

[Harry]

The public, as a group, have only voted over 50% for any government about five or six times since Confederation. I think you need to rephrase.

That's a really good point TB particularly in light of all the comments that are being made about the dos and don't of minority governments.

[msj]

Might be helpful for people to know that Parliament looked like this last Friday:

CPC 143

LPC 77

BQ 47

NDP 36

Ind 2

Vacant 3

[Visionseeker]

CPC = 121

LIB = 117

Bloc = 47

NDP = 22

IND = 1

And there will be no coalition. Rather, a CPC without Harper (who will resign after again failing to win a majority) in complete tatters. Another election will be held in Spring 2012 that results in a LIB/NDP coalition government.

[RNG]

CPC = 121

LIB = 117

Bloc = 47

NDP = 22

IND = 1

And there will be no coalition. Rather, a CPC without Harper (who will resign after again failing to win a majority) in complete tatters. Another election will be held in Spring 2012 that results in a LIB/NDP coalition government.

May as well, they are the same thing. I love it. The vote splitting, just like used to curse the Conservative/Reform supporters. Plus the Green falls in there further splitting it. Great news for us conservatives. (Note the small c.)

[normanchateau]

Here's a fun site for discussion of local ridings: http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/index.php

Not only is this a fun site but it correctly predicted the outcome in 91% of the ridings on the morning of October 13th, 2008, i.e., one day before the election. Here's the link to the ridings that were correctly predicted:

http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php

[punked]

CPC = 121

LIB = 117

Bloc = 47

NDP = 22

IND = 1

And there will be no coalition. Rather, a CPC without Harper (who will resign after again failing to win a majority) in complete tatters. Another election will be held in Spring 2012 that results in a LIB/NDP coalition government.

No way 120 is the Conservative basement right now. Harper would have to kill a baby to fall to 120 seats. I think you are dreaming.

[cybercoma]

Totals - CPC: 162, LPC: 61, NDP: 33, Bloc: 52

CPC: 136

LPC: 83

NDP: 38

Bloc: 49

Green: 0

Other: 2

Puts coalition out of reach for LPC and NDP. Gives the CPC a minority government again.

Voters completely fed-up with federal politics Tuesday morning.

Edited March 30, 2011 by cybercoma

[Harry]

C - 113 seats

L - 60 seats

B - 35 seats

N - 24 seats

Too close to call - 76 seats

Total - 308 seats

http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/index.php

C - 153 seats

L - 72 seats

B - 50 seats

N - 33 seats

Total - 308 seats

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

C - 150 seats

L - 75 Seats

B - 48 seats

N - 35 seats

Total - 308 seats

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/

[fellowtraveller]

CPC 154

The Cooperative 154

[Jack Weber]

CPC 154

The Cooperative 154

Steel cage match to decide it all??

Stevie 4 Questions vs The Coopalition Collossus

[nittanylionstorm07]

CPC 128

LPC 88

NDP 46

BQ 46

[Jack Weber]

CPC 128

LPC 88

NDP 46

BQ 46

Penn State fan?

[nittanylionstorm07]

Penn State fan?

Alumnus!

[Jack Weber]

Alumnus!

Cool...

I'm a fan of Joe Pa...

[Triple M]

British Columbia

CPC 23(+1), NDP 9, LPC 4(-1)

Alberta

CPC 27, NDP 1

Saskatchewan

CPC 13, LPC 1

Manitoba

CPC 9, NDP 4, LPC 1

Ontario

CPC 51(-1), LPC 40(+3), NDP 15(-2)

Quebec

BQ 50, LPC 14, CPC 10 NDP 1

New Brunswick

CPC 7(+1). LPC 2(-1), NDP 1

Nova Scotia

LPC 5, CPC 4, NDP 2

Prince Edward Island

LPC 2(-1), CPC 2(+1)

New Foundland and Labador

LPC 4(-2), CPC 2(+2), NDP 1

North

CPC 2, LPC 1

TOTAL

CPC 150

LPC 74

BQ 50

NDP 34

Edited April 10, 2011 by Triple M

[fellowtraveller]

Steel cage match to decide it all??

Stevie 4 Questions vs The Coopalition Collossus

We should just legislate the change now and have elections on the 1st Friday of every month. Dinner and a movie with the missus, pay the utility bills, vote for the latest government, flip the page on the kitchen calendar. We could be the new Italy.

[Harry]

Close but no cigar perhaps. I don't think it quite that close but this will definitely stampede some Canadians to the oposition parties, which is perhaps the intention of the forecaster. Who knows the games people play.

Harper just shy of projected majority as momentum wanes after Week Two

The Conservative Party’s momentum is beginning to slow down – and at the worst possible time for Stephen Harper. Were an election held today, the Tories would win 153 seats in the House of Commons, two short of a majority, according to ThreeHundredEight.com’s updated seat and vote projections for The Globe and Mail.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/harper-just-shy-of-projected-majority-as-momentum-wanes-after-week-two/article1978966/

Edited April 10, 2011 by Harry

[Leader Circle]

Steel cage match to decide it all??

Stevie 4 Questions vs The Coopalition Collossus

How about you have some respect. His name is Stephen Harper. Nobody is bashing your leader.