GWiz Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 I'm thinking we may be seeing a replay of the 2008 election. Not one in "majority" territory? What happened? Are those pre or post the "students and vets ejected from Harper rallies by the RCMP et al" issue? Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
bloodyminded Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 Not one in "majority" territory? What happened? Are those pre or post the "students and vets ejected from Harper rallies by the RCMP et al" issue? I've been assuming all along that we will see another conservative minority. Not because of my acumen--I don't possess any. But simply because the polls have remained more or less consistent. that's not proof, of course, and definitely something different could happen. Put another way: I wouldn't bet a hundred dollars on another Conservative minority. But I'd bet ten dollars on it. Quote As scarce as truth is, the supply has always been in excess of the demand. --Josh Billings
ToadBrother Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 Not one in "majority" territory? What happened? Are those pre or post the "students and vets ejected from Harper rallies by the RCMP et al" issue? I'm not sure whether the election rally debacle played a role in it or not. I have a feeling in part it's because Iggy may actually be getting his message across. It may also be that a lot of Canadians are like myself, we want a Tory government, just not a Tory majority government. Quote
Jack Weber Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 (edited) I'm not sure whether the election rally debacle played a role in it or not. I have a feeling in part it's because Iggy may actually be getting his message across. It may also be that a lot of Canadians are like myself, we want a Tory government, just not a Tory majority government. Part of the problem for the Tories,and conversely what is helping Ignatieff,is that they went after the guy so hard with attack adds for a least the last year that al he had to do is show up and not slobber in public to look good... Edited April 7, 2011 by Jack Weber Quote The beatings will continue until morale improves!!!
ToadBrother Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 Part of the problem for the Tiries,and conversely what is helping Ignatieff,is that they went after the guy so hard with attack adds for a least the last year that al he had to do is show up and not slobber in public to look good... Heh... You've got a point there. Another problem, to my mind, is that the Liberals have more room to grow, but the Tories seem to be hitting the same ceiling they did in 2008. For any number of reasons, they just can't reliably bust 40%. It's also possible, despite all the protestations of the Tory camp that Canadians don't care about ethics or behavior of Government towards Parliament, that maybe many Canadians do. Whatever the explanation, there's some hints out there that the Tories may even end up sliding back from the 2008 gains. If they do that, then Harper's position because more tenuous, and Iggy, even if he didn't actually win, will have effectively erased Dion's muckups. Quote
Jack Weber Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 Heh... You've got a point there. Another problem, to my mind, is that the Liberals have more room to grow, but the Tories seem to be hitting the same ceiling they did in 2008. For any number of reasons, they just can't reliably bust 40%. It's also possible, despite all the protestations of the Tory camp that Canadians don't care about ethics or behavior of Government towards Parliament, that maybe many Canadians do. Whatever the explanation, there's some hints out there that the Tories may even end up sliding back from the 2008 gains. If they do that, then Harper's position because more tenuous, and Iggy, even if he didn't actually win, will have effectively erased Dion's muckups. Last night on Pwer and Politics,Frank Graves (and now the Con ideologues will chime in that I'm using a biased Liberal pollster for info),said that his data was beginning to show some serious shifts under the surface of the polling data...And it goes to the issue of ethics...He said 4 months ago,if you asked a person what the major issies facing the government were,ethics would be way down on the list.Now,just in the last week,it's become an issue that's usually in the top two!Now,this might have to do with the Bruce Carson stuff,but Graves said there seems to be a shift going on with swing voters and the Tory/Liberal numbers in Ontario... He felt that he could'nt say for sure if it was a trend,but it was definately there and was something to keep an eye on over the next week... If Harper comes back with a weaker minority than he's got now,I don't think he would be leader of that party much longer...And you're right,even with an effective loss,Ignatieff comes out smelling like a rose and no one will care about the Dion experiment.. Quote The beatings will continue until morale improves!!!
Triple M Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 (edited) I really hope we can have a stable Government over the next 4 years. I would perfer a Conservative Majority but i'll even live with a coalition if it means the next election will be in '15. If the tories do get in with a another minority I just don't see how the other parties can work with them. I mean just a few weeks ago they found them in contempt so it would be strange to see any of the parties working with a party they see as liars. Does that mean that we'll be heading for another election in the next year or 2?????? Edited April 7, 2011 by Triple M Quote
ToadBrother Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 If Harper comes back with a weaker minority than he's got now,I don't think he would be leader of that party much longer...And you're right,even with an effective loss,Ignatieff comes out smelling like a rose and no one will care about the Dion experiment.. If Harper comes back with a minority, equal or weaker than the current one, then he has an immediate political crisis on his hands. Now, if he was smart, and I think he is, there's another budget sitting in his desk, one designed to placate the NDP and possibly even the Bloc. It's the only way he's going to survive the Throne Speech and budget votes. If he insists on playing this game like the election never happened, then I'd put his lifespan as PM at less than a month. The Tories have been dropping "coalition" like crazy, but there were warnings even last year after the UK coalition was formed that Canadians might not be as allergic to some sort of deal to create some sort of Liberal government. Polls didn't show enthusiasm for the idea, but neither did they show some vast majority of Canadians finding the idea as repugnant as Tory supporters did. Iggy has committed to know coalition, but he might be able to wiggle out of it by saying he only meant if the Liberals topped the Tories in seats. Or he might just decide alternative ways, vote-by-vote or vote agreement. The point is that if he can find a way to stabilize a Liberal government after a Tory defeat over the Throne Speech, he can buy himself lots of time to prove he can govern. Note, I'm not advocating this. I think a Liberal minority or a coalition would be much weaker than a Tory minority, and I'd much prefer that Harper just puckered up and kissed some Opposition butt. Quote
ToadBrother Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 I really hope we can have a stable Government over the next 4 years. I would perfer a Conservative Majority but i'll even live with a coalition if it means the next election will be in '15. If the tories do get in with a another minority I just don't see how the other parties can work with them. I mean just a few weeks ago they found them in contempt so it would be strange to see any of the parties working with a party they see as liars. Does that mean that we'll be heading for another election in the next year or 2?????? Frankly, I think if there's anything less than a majority government, we'll see another election in a year or two. A coalition might be stable, but I think, particularly in the Liberal caucus, it will be an uphill battle. A Liberal minority doing things vote-by-vote will probably see us back at the polls within a year. Quote
Moonbox Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 (edited) He felt that he could'nt say for sure if it was a trend,but it was definately there and was something to keep an eye on over the next week... I think this is about as substantial as a fart in the wind so far. We'll have to wait and see... If Harper comes back with a weaker minority than he's got now,I don't think he would be leader of that party much longer...And you're right,even with an effective loss,Ignatieff comes out smelling like a rose and no one will care about the Dion experiment.. Unless Harper and the CPC implode then Michael Ignatieff is going to get lynched after this election. Stephen Harper has been the most polarizing PM since Trudeau and even a lot of his base don't really like him, disregarding the swing vote. His only saving grace is that the best the Liberals could come up with to oppose him were Dion and Ignatieff, under whom the party has merely survived at historically low levels of support and likely by brand name alone. Unless he can pull off some magic in the next three weeks, he's a total dud and he's certain to be ousted. Edited April 7, 2011 by Moonbox Quote "A man is no more entitled to an opinion for which he cannot account than he is for a pint of beer for which he cannot pay" - Anonymous
GWiz Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 And this has changed since Doer was Premier how? Hmmm, good question... Maybe I had too high an opinion of the Gary Doer? Thinking back now, I think you may be right, I can think of quite a few "misteps" the Manitoba NDP have had over the years that ended up costing Manitobans a lot of money out of their pockets... Considering who he had in his cabinet, those that still are sinced that really hasn't changed, I really shouldn't be surprised... Thanks for reminding me... I appreciate that... Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
GWiz Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 No 20% is the APPROVAL rating of these Liberal parties which may or may not get them elected but it is sure the lowest in Canada for any governments. But why is that? Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
GWiz Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 I've been assuming all along that we will see another conservative minority. Not because of my acumen--I don't possess any. But simply because the polls have remained more or less consistent. that's not proof, of course, and definitely something different could happen. Put another way: I wouldn't bet a hundred dollars on another Conservative minority. But I'd bet ten dollars on it. Oh I disagree, I think you have a substantial political acumen... When it comes right down to it all one needs is a little common sense... In fact the more of it the better is the way I look at it... Considering we are still less than two weeks into this election, haven't had the debates, and 308 TIMES whatever number of "candidates" are running, of which only the incumbants have sent out any literature, I wouldn't bet a dime on this election just yet... Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
bloodyminded Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 Oh I disagree, I think you have a substantial political acumen... When it comes right down to it all one needs is a little common sense... In fact the more of it the better is the way I look at it... Considering we are still less than two weeks into this election, haven't had the debates, and 308 TIMES whatever number of "candidates" are running, of which only the incumbants have sent out any literature, I wouldn't bet a dime on this election just yet... Well, I can't argue that. The race is not a foregone conclusion, I agree. Quote As scarce as truth is, the supply has always been in excess of the demand. --Josh Billings
GWiz Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 (edited) If Harper comes back with a weaker minority than he's got now,I don't think he would be leader of that party much longer...And you're right,even with an effective loss,Ignatieff comes out smelling like a rose and no one will care about the Dion experiment.. Don't you just hate people who say "told you so"? "Told you so" (and the debates are still to come! BTW, the "ejection" issue hasn't hit the polling numbers yet AND if the YOUTH VOTE gets out and votes because of it, as could well happen, all bets are off the table on this election... Edited April 7, 2011 by GWiz Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
Jack Weber Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 Don't you just hate people who say "told you so"? Told you so (and the debates are still to come! The key word that you quoted me on is "If"... I'm not convinced that Mr. Ignatieff can pull it off...And,frankly,it's a scathing indictment of the state of the Liberal party that an effective loss is somehow a "victory"... Quote The beatings will continue until morale improves!!!
GWiz Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 Well, I can't argue that. The race is not a foregone conclusion, I agree. Seems to me there's quite a few people on MLW that "called" this election a wee bit early... If this current "trend" continues by week 4 we may be seeing Harper begging "Iggy" for that one on one debate to try and save his sorry butt... Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
GWiz Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 The key word that you quoted me on is "If"... I'm not convinced that Mr. Ignatieff can pull it off...And,frankly,it's a scathing indictment of the state of the Liberal party that an effective loss is somehow a "victory"... Ahhh my friend, that's the rub, no one (not even Harper) has won or lost anything just yet... At the end of the day nothing counts until after 8PM local TIME (or there abouts) May 2nd, 2011... Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
ToadBrother Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 (edited) Seems to me there's quite a few people on MLW that "called" this election a wee bit early... If this current "trend" continues by week 4 we may be seeing Harper begging "Iggy" for that one on one debate to try and save his sorry butt... I still have my doubts that Iggy can pull a 10 point turnaround out of his hat. It's not outside the realm of possibility, but I wouldn't recommend anyone hold their breath. What seems most likely right now is a returned Tory minority with maybe a few seats less than it has now. What seems possible is a returned Tory minority with something more like its 2006 seat counts, which would have to be seen as a damning indictment of the last two and half years of Tory government. The Tories have to at least maintain the 2008 gains to not have this election, even if they still are still the government after the polls close, come out as a disaster. I see some real softening in the Ontario numbers, and if that trend continues, then we're not heading towards a 2008 redux, but a 2006 redux. Worse, they have a Throne Speech and a budget they have to figure out how to make sufficiently palatable to the Opposition not crash and burn on Parliament's return, and they may very well be doing so from a position of weakness. Who are they going to get to support it if the NDP loses too many seats? The Bloc? That ought to play well with all the anti-coalition types out there. Edited April 7, 2011 by ToadBrother Quote
Moonbox Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 I see some real softening in the Ontario numbers, and if that trend continues, then we're not heading towards a 2008 redux, but a 2006 redux. Not to burst your bubble but there's no trend yet really. The Nanos polls that are really showing the change have a margin of error of 6% and we've seen 4% shifts per day up and down in both directions. Ignatieff had better do better in Ontario than Dion did, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals match Tory support in Ontario. It's the rest of Canada that they have to worry about. Quote "A man is no more entitled to an opinion for which he cannot account than he is for a pint of beer for which he cannot pay" - Anonymous
Jack Weber Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 (edited) I still have my doubts that Iggy can pull a 10 point turnaround out of his hat. It's not outside the realm of possibility, but I wouldn't recommend anyone hold their breath. What seems most likely right now is a returned Tory minority with maybe a few seats less than it has now. What seems possible is a returned Tory minority with something more like its 2006 seat counts, which would have to be seen as a damning indictment of the last two and half years of Tory government. The Tories have to at least maintain the 2008 gains to not have this election, even if they still are still the government after the polls close, come out as a disaster. I see some real softening in the Ontario numbers, and if that trend continues, then we're not heading towards a 2008 redux, but a 2006 redux. Worse, they have a Throne Speech and a budget they have to figure out how to make sufficiently palatable to the Opposition not crash and burn on Parliament's return, and they may very well be doing so from a position of weakness. Who are they going to get to support it if the NDP loses too many seats? The Bloc? That ought to play well with all the anti-coalition types out there. Or,just the opposite... Mr. Harper could wait a few weeks,propose a completely unpalatable Throne Speech,hope for some sort of "coaliton/co-opalition" to form,and rig his own demise giving us yet another election... I contend that this was his ulterior motive in late November 2008 but it backfired on him... Edited April 7, 2011 by Jack Weber Quote The beatings will continue until morale improves!!!
GWiz Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 All I've got to say is RIGHT NOW, less than two weeks into this election, I'm loving how this election is playing out... The only one that needs to be concerned about current "poll numbers" is Mr. Harper because he's the one who rolled the dice on getting a majority or nothing (remember the "coalition"?) thereby cutting his own throat in regards to any other outcome... Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
Jack Weber Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 All I've got to say is RIGHT NOW, less than two weeks into this election, I'm loving how this election is playing out... The only one that needs to be concerned about current "poll numbers" is Mr. Harper because he's the one who rolled the dice on getting a majority or nothing (remember the "coalition"?) thereby cutting his own throat in regards to any other outcome... Again.. It's a scathing indictment on how far the Liberal Party has fallen when an effective defeat could be seen as some sort of victory... I guess we can squash the "Natural Governing Party" crapola? Quote The beatings will continue until morale improves!!!
Harry Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 Environics polling done March 30-April 5, no link yet C - 38% L - 25% N - 20% B - 8% G - 8% Quote
GWiz Posted April 7, 2011 Report Posted April 7, 2011 It's a scathing indictment on how far the Liberal Party has fallen when an effective defeat could be seen as some sort of victory... Again... No one has lost or won anything yet... I for one haven't even ruled out a Liberal win at this point... Especially considering the only thing that most Canadians know about Ignatieff and the Liberals is what the Harper Regime has been telling them for almost two years with their constant and still going on attack ads... The Liberals are getting by far the most hits on their website since Ignatieff came out with his "family plan book"... Have you read the Liberal policies? http://www.liberal.ca/platform/?gclid=CL7f9aWpi6gCFcm8Kgod9X6sEA Having now seen him speak in person 3x now I've warmed to Ignatieff quite a bit and I see him growing into a fairly acceptable leader actually... Which means he may just continue to surprise a lot of people that have been a little too quick to judge him... Only thing that's surprising me is that it's happening so quickly... I guess we can squash the "Natural Governing Party" crapola? Sure... Nothing there I've ever bought into... Ain't no such thing as far as I'm concerned... Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
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