Federal Election Polls

[Shady]

Yeah and with the current backlash over immigration, and embarrassments like "the urinater" that 105 seats could dwindle even more.

LOL @ backlash over immigration.

[Vancouver King]

A new nightmare for Harper? It turns out that while the CRA was aggressively chasing charities and environmental groups, rich people were stuffing millions into offshore companies and paying no tax.

This won't play well for Harper.

As with refugee crisis, Harperites will feign concern then quietly work to bury action or investigations into this mammoth rip-off by the wealthiest.

[On Guard for Thee]

LOL @ backlash over immigration.

Perhaps you may have noticed Chris Alexander seems now to be MIA after his blunders on his portfolio. I suspect he is under the bus alongside Joe Oliver et al. When you screw up that's where you end up, especially during an election campaign.

[Shady]

Perhaps you may have noticed Chris Alexander seems now to be MIA after his blunders on his portfolio. I suspect he is under the bus alongside Joe Oliver et al. When you screw up that's where you end up, especially during an election campaign.

Average Canadians don't give a damn how many middle eastern immgrants we're going to accept in an ad hoc basis.

[On Guard for Thee]

Average Canadians don't give a damn how many middle eastern immgrants we're going to accept in an ad hoc basis.

You've polled them have you? And what do you mean by ad hoc? And be careful, don't screw up like Alexander did and try to conflate immigrants and refugees.

Edited September 10, 2015 by On Guard for Thee

[cybercoma]

A new nightmare for Harper? It turns out that while the CRA was aggressively chasing charities and environmental groups, rich people were stuffing millions into offshore companies and paying no tax.

This won't play well for Harper.

This would be a good thread topic, rather than discussing it in the thread about federal polling.

[BC_chick]

At the current rate, you need to flip the NDP and Liberals.

Today LPC are leading on 308.

[Derek 2.0]

I think the Tories will surge towards the end of the campaign. The shake up in the campaign staff will galvanize the team and focus on negative ads. Harper may even win more seats than Elizabeth May

Truth is stranger than fiction.........enter the Wizard of Oz........Crosby turned an expected Labour minority, supported by the SNP, into the Cameron majority inside a month.

[BC_chick]

I don't think Trudeau deserves to be prime-minister (should he pull this off), but I would love to see Harper and his supporters lose their marbles over having another Trudeau in office.

Their passionate hate is beyond irrational and they spent all their time trying to discredit him, even when he was just a 3rd party leader. Harper hates anything Trudeau/LPC and I have no doubt he would much prefer to lose to Mulcair.

It would be awesome seeing him vacate the premises for Justin Trudeau.

[cybercoma]

Maybe Shady will go around chastizing conservatives for their Trudeau Derangement Syndrome

[cybercoma]

New Forum numbers out today.

NDP 36 (no change), LPC 29 (-3), CPC 28 (+4)

Forum is consistently out of whack with the other pollsters. I have to wonder if Eric Grenier has written about this yet.


Also, the earlier sample that showed youth as a lower percentage of the NDP has been completely turned on its head this time. Over 50% of those 18-34 support the NDP.

Regional breakdowns are peculiar in this poll too. Forum's respondents put the NDP in the lead in Ontario with 34%, but statistically tied with both the LPC and CPC 31% for inference purposes. The CPC leads MB and SK amongst respondents at 35%, but are only 1 point ahead of the NDP there at 34%. The NDP is holding a 9 point lead over the CPC in BC. Atlantic provinces are being dominated by the Liberals and QC by the NDP. AB is of course strongly on side with the CPC, but it's worth mentioning that their support in Alberta is lower than the NDP support in QC and the Liberals support in the Atlantic.

Edited September 11, 2015 by cybercoma

[ToadBrother]

Truth is stranger than fiction.........enter the Wizard of Oz........Crosby turned an expected Labour minority, supported by the SNP, into the Cameron majority inside a month.

It's a small majority, and was gained as much by UKIP eating into Labour's vote in traditional Labour areas (like the North of England). I'd say winning a majority, even in the UK with three major regional parties (SNP, Plaid Cymru and DUP), the Liberal Democrats in Parliament with just over 36% of the popular vote is tight enough to be called a bit of a mathematical anomaly. I would say that even if our Tories were to get to 36% (which I can't see happening, but who knows), it might make a large minority a possibility, but I still think to form a majority, a party needs to get to a minimum of 38%. I know Grenier has written about other paths that could get a party a majority in the mid-30s, but these seem fairly improbable and require near-perfect vote splits between the NDP and Liberals in a lot of ridings.

Edited September 11, 2015 by ToadBrother

[ToadBrother]

I don't think Trudeau deserves to be prime-minister (should he pull this off), but I would love to see Harper and his supporters lose their marbles over having another Trudeau in office.

Their passionate hate is beyond irrational and they spent all their time trying to discredit him, even when he was just a 3rd party leader. Harper hates anything Trudeau/LPC and I have no doubt he would much prefer to lose to Mulcair.

It would be awesome seeing him vacate the premises for Justin Trudeau.

In the immortal words of Clint Eastwood, "deserve's got nothin' to do with it."

I'm not Trudeau's biggest fan (but then again, I'm not overly fond of any of the leaders for various reasons), but I don't see how he is somehow less worthy than Stephen Harper. Both of them largely had the same degree of political and real world experience when they were elected to lead their parties, and while Trudeau has made a lot of rookie mistakes and said some absurd things, it's not hard to find quotes from Harper in his younger days that were intemperate and overly ideological.

If anyone "deserves" to be PM, from the notion of background, it would be Mulcair, and certainly he has proven himself probably the best political manager in a generation of Canadian politics. I have serious problems with his policies, and frankly, find the thought of an NDP majority to be by far my least favorite option.

I'm not sure I care who is the government post October 19th, providing whoever it is isn't a majority. I think the Tories do need taking down quite a few notches, and the days of the Harper PMO functioning as a mini-cabinet have to end. Of all the things the Tories have done for good or ill, Harper's management style, and his empowerment of characters of dubious ethics to basically wield his party and Parliamentary management powers in his name, while he runs off to save Ukraine from the Russians, Netanyahu from the Zionist Union, or whatever he thinks he's doing on the international stage, has produced such travesties as the Duffy-Wright affair, and the general discord that has been clearly bubbling away in the Tory caucus for a couple of years now.

[Triple M]

I take numbers with some grain of thought, for example i don't think that the NDP was ever at 40% or at 36% , or the CPC was in the low 20's. However, i feel forum deserves credit because they were the first poll showing the Tories in 3rd.

I think what is significant in the last few polls seems like the CPC might be benefiting from the Trudeau serge. Dissatisfied Tories that were looking at the NDP might be holding their nose fearful of a Trudeau victory. I feel that observation holds up in the numbers from BC and the Parries.

Ontario might be a different issue i think the movement is from soft Lib/CPC shifting, especially in the 905/suburban metro Toronto.

[Derek 2.0]

Last night's Nanos tracking:

[Derek 2.0]

New Forum numbers out today.

The actual numbers in various polls mean little to me, but this number will be key in a tight race closer to election day:

Seven-in-ten Conservative voters say they are strong party supporters (70%), whereas just more than half of Liberals (55%) and New Democrats (56%) say ithis

All parties, like a building, require a firm base on which to build upon........

[On Guard for Thee]

The actual numbers in various polls mean little to me, but this number will be key in a tight race closer to election day:

All parties, like a building, require a firm base on which to build upon........

The problem Harper has is he has strong support, from an ever shrinking base.

[waldo]

even when the nightly Nanos "3-day rollover" methodology aligns with my favoured party(s), results need some degree of representative weighting in relation to other polls. CBC's Poll Tracker doesn't seem to apply a consistent weighting to the various Nanos rollovers... not sure what's going on there.

[Derek 2.0]

even when the nightly Nanos "3-day rollover" methodology aligns with my favoured party(s), results need some degree of representative weighting in relation to other polls. CBC's Poll Tracker doesn't seem to apply a consistent weighting to the various Nanos rollovers... not sure what's going on there.

I largely agree....One, as shown by Nanos several days ago, I doubt the Tories were in the dank basement, inversely, I doubt the Tories have seen a 6-7% surge in under a week.

[Triple M]

The actual numbers in various polls mean little to me, but this number will be key in a tight race closer to election day:

All parties, like a building, require a firm base on which to build upon........

Haven't the recent polls shown that the numbers in considering the Tories have actually gone up over the last few days.

[Derek 2.0]

Haven't the recent polls shown that the numbers in considering the Tories have actually gone up over the last few days.

I don't know, aside from those polls posted here or on the front page of several news sites I go to, I pay little attention to public, private polling......Poll standings are of little importance, understanding what drives polls, the what for and why, is the key to electoral victory.

Edited September 11, 2015 by Derek 2.0

[cybercoma]

The actual numbers in various polls mean little to me, but this number will be key in a tight race closer to election day:

All parties, like a building, require a firm base on which to build upon........

Only the most stubborn Harper supporters are left. That's what that says. Everyone else is deciding which party other than the Conservatives they're going to support. That number isn't the key you think it is, particularly when you look at the leadership numbers and who Canadians perceive as the best person to lead the country. It's not Harper.

[ToadBrother]

Haven't the recent polls shown that the numbers in considering the Tories have actually gone up over the last few days.

The Nanos running poll has shown some pretty wild fluctuations, with the Tories jumping five points in the space of two or three days. I'm wondering if this is an artifact of a running average, rather than most polls being "snapshots". Not being a statistician, I can't say which is the better approach. There are some indications from the latest Forum poll that the race is again tightening up into a true three way again. Judging by the rumors coming out of hte Tory camp of late, I would suggest that their internal polling shows them in considerable trouble, but whether that trouble is defined as "we're losing" or "we won't get a majority" is something only the party strategists know. I think bringing in an outsider and what looks like a reorganization of the campaign team tells me the Tories are extremely worried.

[cybercoma]

If Harper is bringing in new consultants halfway through an election, you can be sure that he's looked at the number in close ridings and is not feeling very comfortable. I can tell you that the Conservative incumbent in my riding and former cabinet minister is looking like he won't be re-elected this time around, considering the liberal has nearly a 10 point lead on him. Granted, that's just my riding and the Liberals are polling strong in Atlantic Canada, but Nova Scotia is also looking like it's going to shut out the CPC too, since I think every last incumbent is gone from that province. The popular vote may not show it, but when you look at seats changing colour, there's a lot to be worried about for Harper.

[Triple M]

i think Ekos, Forum, and Nanos all show CPC the tories have had a bump over the last few days.