angrypenguin Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Y In Canada, you are running out of Conservative options. ... ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Every poll released today (I believe) had them above the margin of error. Yes, it's technically a tie, but it every single says the same thing it's unlikely to be a mistake. Give it up, the CPC has lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 I still find that Ford rally at the last minute to be an unbelievable move. I can see where it might have helped the Etobicoke candidate but what about those folks in the East and the West. They also had to live through the Ford embarrassment on American talk shows. Somebody in the war room made a very, very big mistake. Hail Mary. If it had worked, I'd have to move to Scandinavia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Give it up, the CPC has lost. Uhhh, I voted Liberal Anyway, no majority according to Eric: http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Anyway, no majority according to Eric: http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html His numbers are also mostly in line with my seat projection in the other thread, so I'm happy with what I've predicted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Uhhh, I voted Liberal Anyway, no majority according to Eric: http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html Yeah. I still don't get how the LIberals could hit 170. But maybe.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 There hasn't been a single poll that's shown the Conservatives ahead since Ekos on Oct 10, Angus on Oct 9, and Mainstreet on Oct 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Yeah. I still don't get how the LIberals could hit 170. But maybe.. Ontario Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Éric Grenier's final projection. "Likely Liberal victory, possible Conservative upset." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Éric Grenier's final projection. "Likely Liberal victory, possible Conservative upset." He's hedging his bets. Both 308 and The Signal are giving the Liberals 140 seats, and frankly I'm suspecting they may get a few more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Those projections have Mulcair losing his own riding, and Duceppe winning his: http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 He's hedging his bets. Both 308 and The Signal are giving the Liberals 140 seats, and frankly I'm suspecting they may get a few more. I think the Globe sees around 150...I think that's closer if it doesn't surge like I'm predicting is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Éric Grenier's final projection. "Likely Liberal victory, possible Conservative upset." He's covering his bases. As I said earlier, we've all agreed anything could happen. And something will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 And something will. Bold prediction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Bold prediction. And accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Bold prediction. Something always happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 I mentioned previously a possible "social desirability bias" against the Conservatives in the polling when confronted with a face-to-face interviewer, rather than online or automated calls. Too Close to Call wrote in their projection that "Ekos for instance note that the Conservatives are lower in phone polls with live interviewers (aka a human person) versus automated phone calls." I think people should prepare themselves for a stronger finish from the Conservatives than the final polling looks. A win for them is still possible, but a Liberal minority government is the most likely outcome, imho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Squid Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 I mentioned previously a possible "social desirability bias" against the Conservatives in the polling when confronted with a face-to-face interviewer, rather than online or automated calls. Too Close to Call wrote in their projection that "Ekos for instance note that the Conservatives are lower in phone polls with live interviewers (aka a human person) versus automated phone calls." I think people should prepare themselves for a stronger finish from the Conservatives than the final polling looks. A win for them is still possible, but a Liberal minority government is the most likely outcome, imho. I am all for a small minority for the CPC... it would make the ousting of Harper WAY more interesting when the NDP and LIB have to work together to form a government. Although a small LIB minority is fine too. Eric Grenier, nothing like hedging your bets... "maybe this... maybe that." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancouver King Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 No more hand wringing required, folks, a vast coast to coast Liberal sweep will commence in a matter of hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) Eric Grenier, nothing like hedging your bets... "maybe this... maybe that." It's the best call given the numbers. There's no blowout here. It's likely a Liberal minority, possibly but unlikely a majority and possibly but unlikely a Conservative minority. Edited October 19, 2015 by cybercoma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dre Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 It's the best call given the numbers. There's no blowout here. It's likely a Liberal minority, possibly but unlikely a majority and possibly but unlikely a Conservative minority. For some reason Im expecting a suprise... After the election we had out here in BC a few years back I have a hard time trusting all the polling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueblood Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 For some reason Im expecting a suprise... After the election we had out here in BC a few years back I have a hard time trusting all the polling. Based on the polls i want a surprise, but im just a wee bit biased lol!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 I mentioned previously a possible "social desirability bias" against the Conservatives in the polling when confronted with a face-to-face interviewer, rather than online or automated calls. Too Close to Call wrote in their projection that "Ekos for instance note that the Conservatives are lower in phone polls with live interviewers (aka a human person) versus automated phone calls." I think people should prepare themselves for a stronger finish from the Conservatives than the final polling looks. A win for them is still possible, but a Liberal minority government is the most likely outcome, imho. Yup. not over yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) For some reason Im expecting a suprise... After the election we had out here in BC a few years back I have a hard time trusting all the polling. Let's not forget as well that GB thought the Tories were out too. Edited October 19, 2015 by cybercoma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Let's not forget as well that GB thought the Tories were out too. In that election, the polls had the parties neck and neck. On average, we have about 7% separating the parties here. and all of the major polls agree on the leader. It isn't that election. The Liberals are going to win and possibly run away with this in a way that the polls aren't reporting. No one ever shows up like that to see a politician. They have for Trudeau. He has changed a lot of minds. People find him to be a better leader than Harper. That was really the one thing that Harper had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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